请选择 进入手机版 | 继续访问电脑版
楼主: 交易自省





 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-19 22:27 | 显示全部楼层
The tone and the tenor of the Federal Reserve minutes due on Wednesday will also dictate the market’s mood as investors look for more clarity on possible additional economic stimulus measures from the central bank.

“The stock market has enjoyed a nice run in recent weeks, but moving above the April highs may prove to be a challenge. Bull markets, like bear markets, need constant feeding,” said Alan Gayle, a senior investment strategist at Ridgeworth Investments. “The current run appears to have been fed by hopes for further global monetary stimulus and Quantitative Easing 3 and a lack of bad news from the EU—not strengthening economic momentum.”

Since July 6, the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA +0.19% has advanced for six straight weeks for a cumulative 4% rise to 13,275 on Friday, closing in on April’s high of 13,316. The S&P 500 /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX +0.19% climbed 4.7% since July 6 to 1,418, near April’s peak of 1,422, while the Nasdaq Composite /quotes/zigman/123127 COMP +0.46% added 5.8% during five weeks of gains since July 13 to close at 3,076, inching toward April’s high of 3,128.

After a brief intermission, Europe is likely to return to center stage as European leaders once again look for ways to prevent the Greek economy from succumbing to cardiac arrest.

“More important than the economic data will be the political maneuvering,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, in a note to clients.

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras plans to meet with President Jean-Claude Juncker of the European Council, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande in quick succession next week. Samaras will reportedly sound out Merkel on his proposal to stretch the implementation of new austerity measures over four years rather than the two years as previously agreed. Read more on Samaras’ meeting with Germany’s Merkel

The Greek economy posted a 6.2% year-on-year contraction in the second quarter, making it difficult for the country to improve its balance sheet, according to economists at Rabobank.

Germany and France have taken leading roles in the international effort to resolve Europe’s lingering financial problems but the process has been bogged down by politics, particularly in Germany.

On the domestic front, U.S. investors will parse Fed minutes from the July 31-Aug. 1 meeting for hints on where the central bank’s bias lies on further easing.

“All eyes will be on any ‘cost-benefit analysis’ that went on at the August meeting. With that said, expectations for Fed action in September have been pared back recently in light of the July employment and retail sales reports. This, coupled with a decent August employment report, may buy the Fed some more time, lowering the odds of action in September,” strategists at RBC Capital Markets said in a report.

Job growth in July exceeded expectations with employment outside the farm sector rising by 163,000 workers, the fastest pace since February.

Sales at U.S. retailers climbed 0.8% in July to a seasonally adjusted $403.9 billion after falling for three months straight.

The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate target unchanged at zero to 0.25% when it met early August. But the Fed lowered its outlook on the economy, noting that economic activity had decelerated, and promised it “will provide additional accommodation as needed.”

Investors will also sift through a raft of housing and manufacturing data for clues on where the economy is headed.

“While the housing data due next week will likely give signs of continued healing from a steep decline, the durable goods orders report will help investors gauge the current health of manufacturing demand,” said Gayle.

With the earnings season winding down, corporate news is likely to have less sway on stocks than in previous weeks.

Among notable companies slated to report results next week are Dell Inc. /quotes/zigman/27952/quotes/nls/dell DELL -0.08% and Hewlett-Packard Co. /quotes/zigman/574156/quotes/nls/h H -0.11% Dell, due to announce after the closing bell on Tuesday, is projected to turn in a second-quarter profit of 45 cents a share, on revenue of $14.7 billion, according to FactSet.

Hewlett-Packard, scheduled for Wednesday, is estimated to have earned 98 cents a share on revenue of $30.19 billion in the fiscal third quarter.

A number of retailers are also on tap to release quarterly results, including Lowe’s Cos. /quotes/zigman/232508/quotes/nls/low LOW +1.53% , Urban Outfitters Inc. /quotes/zigman/55244/quotes/nls/urbn URBN +1.36% , Barnes & Noble Inc. /quotes/zigman/132169/quotes/nls/bks BKS -0.32% , Best Buy Co. /quotes/zigman/219712/quotes/nls/bby BBY -0.69% , American Eagle Outfitters Inc. /quotes/zigman/183513/quotes/nls/aeo AEO -0.71% , Guess Inc. /quotes/zigman/166567/quotes/nls/ges GES -1.01% , Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. /quotes/zigman/53450/quotes/nls/psun PSUN -0.49% , Big Lots Inc. /quotes/zigman/283891/quotes/nls/big BIG +0.10% , and Williams-Sonoma Inc. /quotes/zigman/246567/quotes/nls/wsm WSM +1.27% .

Of the 474 companies that have reported second-quarter earnings so far, 71% have reported better than expected earnings, while only 42% have reported sales above the mean estimate, said John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet.

The Euro 13.5bn cuts package demanded by the Troika (the ECB, the EU and the IMF) needs to be approved by parliament by 12 November. That's the date when eurozone finance ministers meet to decide whether Greece should get its next aid tranche, worth Euro 31.45bn. government spokesman Simos Kedikoglou has warned that an agreement must be reached over its  euro 13.5bn cuts package by the close of play tomorrow 24th Oct. News in from our correspondent Helena Smith who confirms that Greece's politicial leaders have failed to make headway on the draconian Euro 13.5bn package of spending cuts the debt-stricken country has been set as a condition for further aid.

Athens cannot afford to miss this deadline – it is expected to run out of funds by 16 November

No final decisions are expected when the Federal Open Market Committee releases a statement at 2:15 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday 24th Oct. Economists will parse the summary of the Fed’s deliberations to be released on Nov. 15 for clues to what actions may come at the last meeting of the year in mid-December.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story ... -10-28?pagenumber=1

http://www.marketwatch.com/story ... potlight-2012-10-27

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-10-28 23:31 编辑 ]
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-19 22:31 | 显示全部楼层
The launch remains speculative, as Apple /quotes/zigman/68270/quotes/nls/aapl AAPL +1.85%  hews to its ultra-secretive nature and tradition of saying nothing about new products until they are formally announced.

However, as in years past, growing speculation and leaks in the media are feeding into expectations by investors, who remain highly keyed on the next update of what has become Apple’s largest product, accounting for a majority of both revenues and profits in the first nine months of the current fiscal year.

Shares of Apple were up more than 1% to $643.13 by midday Friday, briefly hitting a new intraday high of $644.13 earlier in the session, according to FactSet. The stock has surged by 59% so far this year, making Apple one of the largest gainers among tech firms on the S&P 500.

The stock has picked up nearly 12% following a short-lived selloff that resulted from its July 24 earnings report, which showed a sequential decline in iPhone sales ahead of the new launch.

The device expected to be designated as the iPhone 5 is believed to feature a redesigned, thinner body, larger touch-screen and the ability to connect to the latest generation of LTE networks. It will also feature the iOS 6 version of the mobile operating system that Apple previewed in June and set for a launch date of “this fall.”

Until recently, most analysts covering Apple had been expecting the new device to be unveiled in early October, with a market launch later that month. That’s similar to the schedule Apple kept last year for the iPhone 4S. But some recent media reports say the company is planning a Sept. 12 event to announce the new iPhone ahead of a market launch later in the month, likely adding to the company’s results for its fourth fiscal quarter.

Peter Misek of Jefferies & Co. boosted his price target on Apple to $900 from $800 on Friday morning, predicting that the iPhone 5 “will be the biggest handset launch in history.”

In a note to clients, Misek estimated that 170 million global smartphone subscribers will age out of their two-year contracts in the second half of this year, with about 30 million of those already iPhone users who might be looking to upgrade to the new device.

“We therefore see significant and very fertile ground for the iPhone 5’s success,” Misek wrote.

Misek left his formal estimates unchanged, but projected that Apple will have about 15 million units of the new iPhone in finished-goods inventory by mid-September. He also said build plans out of Asian manufacturing facilities are pointing toward a launch of the much-speculated “iPad Mini” — a 7-inch version of the best-selling tablet device.

Earlier in the week, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray projected that a September launch could add sales of between 6 million and 10 million units of the new iPhone device to his targets for the quarter. This would boost the company’s revenue about 8% above Wall Street’s current consensus for the period, and also spell an upside of 12% from the current consensus target for earnings per share. Read The Tell blog on more on the iPhone 5.

In another report on Friday, Nomura’s telecommunications analyst Mike McCormack said an earlier iPhone 5 launch would result in “moving part of the pain” for the U.S. carriers who sell the device, which typically see margins constricted around the launch based on the price subsidies they pay Apple for the device.

“Broadly speaking, this shifts a significant cost burden into 3Q, which we estimate could correspond to 5mn iPhone sales across the industry,” he wrote. Verizon /quotes/zigman/262341/quotes/nls/vz VZ -0.14%  , AT&T /quotes/zigman/398198/quotes/nls/t T -0.19%  and Sprint /quotes/zigman/240259/quotes/nls/s S +0.78%  are all expected to be selling the new iPhone at launch.
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-21 20:24 | 显示全部楼层
Shanghai stocks rose Tuesday after a report Tuesday in the Chinese state-run Xinhua news agency's Economic Information Daily said Beijing was planning fresh economic stimulus for the second half of the year. The moves would be meant to boost domestic consumption and would likely include encouraging the use of credit, the report said without citing sources





  另据知情人士透露,信用消费鼓励政策酝酿已久,商务部从2010年初就开始就我国信用消费情况进行摸底。据了解,信用消费发展不充分已成为我国消费率低的重要原因。目前,美国等发达国家的消费总额占G D P70%以上,其中信用消费占消费总额三分之二以上;而我国2010年消费总额仅占GDP38%左右,其中信用消费仅占消费总额的12%。











[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-8-21 20:32 编辑 ]
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



发表于 2012-8-21 21:11 | 显示全部楼层
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-22 22:50 | 显示全部楼层

How to manage volatility as the fiscal cliff looms

As they say with foreboding in the popular television series Game of Thrones, “Winter is coming.”

And for U.S. markets this year, “winter” could mean a storm of volatility in the form of November elections, a government debt ceiling hit soon after, and the so-called “fiscal cliff” in 2013, as the Bush-era tax cuts come due to expire and several billions of dollars in mandatory budget cuts kick in.

As investors mark the Aug. 5 anniversary of the United States losing its triple-A rating from Standard & Poor’s, they do so in a market that looks deep in summer slumber — a big change from a year-ago. Read Aug. 2011 article on downgrade.

In August and September 2011, market volatility spiked to levels reminiscent of the height of the U.S. financial crisis. By early October, the S&P 500 was flirting with a bear market. The debt downgrade, which came with the warning that more could be in store, followed weeks of watching congressional leaders play chicken with raising the country’s debt ceiling and a feud over a deficit-cutting plan that few deemed deep enough. Read a recap of August 2011's wild ride.

Yet twelve months later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA -0.19% , the S&P 500 Index /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX -0.06%  , and the Nasdaq Composite Index /quotes/zigman/123127 COMP +0.02%  have all risen about 10%. The U.S. dollar /quotes/zigman/1652083 DXY -0.01%  has gained 11% against its rivals. U.S. Treasury yields are near record lows. Gold is about 4% lower, while oil prices are slightly lower though still in the $90-a-barrel area. Additionally, recent stock trading volume is off by about 30% compared with August’s average daily volume a year ago.

But one of the biggest differences from last summer is the lack of volatility. The CBOE Market Volatility Index /quotes/zigman/2766221 VIX +0.73% , the so-called “fear index,” is considerably lower from a year ago.

On Friday, the VIX was down 7% to 16.34 as favorable U.S. payroll and services data put investors into a risk-on mood that boosted stocks by about 2% across the board. The 50-day moving average is currently at 19.56, while the 200-day average is at 21.41.

In the past few months, the index has traded toward the low end of the 15 to 25 range, compared to the high end of last summer’s 25 to 45 range.

Much of that volatility was triggered by last summer’s congressional arm-twisting over raising the U.S. debt ceiling that threatened a government shutdown. To avoid a repeat of that, House and Senate leaders struck a deal Tuesday to fund the government for six months, but the deal doesn’t do anything to resolve the debt-ceiling or the fiscal cliff. Read more on the stopgap measure.

This time around, in addition to a what promises to be a contentious national election, volatility will be fueled by uncertainty over the fate of the Bush-era tax cuts, the expiration of the 2% payroll tax cut, higher Medicare taxes as part of the health-care overhaul, slated budget cuts, and the expiration of extended unemployment insurance. Collectively, these tax increases and spending cuts have become known as the “fiscal cliff.”

Winterizing the portfolio
Volatility levels are not likely to top those from last summer as we approach the end of the year, but investors need to be prepared for some renewed level of it, said Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Asset Management Group.

“The political process will be messy, but in the long run you have to make an educated decision on how it will play out,” Stone said.

Stone believes after all the smoke clears on the political wrangling, most aspects of the fiscal cliff will be avoided. He estimates that if Congress does nothing, it will impede the economy by $606 billion, or 3.5% of gross domestic product.

While the Bush-era tax cuts may be preserved for those families making less than $250,000 a year and the middle class may dodge an expansion of exposure to the Alternative Minimum Tax, Stone sees the 2% payroll tax cut expiring and increased taxes to fund health-care reform laws that were backed by the U.S. Supreme Court in June.

He suggests one way to face the coming volatility is through dividend-focused stocks, or high-quality names with stable balance sheets and low debt that don’t necessarily have the highest yields, but have the wherewithal to grow their dividend.

One such exchange-traded fund that follows consistent dividend growth stocks is the SPDR S&P Dividend Fund /quotes/zigman/477906/quotes/nls/sdy SDY -0.33% , which is up about 9% from a year ago. Read Weekend Investor on dividend-growth stocks.

Brian Rehling, chief fixed income strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors, said a lot will depend on the election, such as whether control of the presidency and Congress will remain in the hands of one party or be split.

The combination of factors toward the end of the year, however, is unprecedented.

“Markets haven’t dealt with this previously, and that has its own challenges,” Rehling said. “Markets would like to see a medium-to-long term plan in place on the debt ceiling and the fiscal cliff.”

The U.S. government is estimated to hit its $16.394 trillion debt ceiling sometime after the November elections.

While debate among politicians will spike volatility, Rehling said neither party wants the country to walk off the cliff completely and expects some sort of compromise to be hammered out. But if that compromise is a short-term fix from a stubborn, polarized Congress, that increases the likelihood of another downgrade to U.S. debt in 2013 or 2014 from S&P or one of the other ratings agencies, he said.

While the S&P downgrade from triple-A did not have negative consequences for U.S. debt costs — and resulted in more money flowing to U.S. Treasurys as stocks sank — another could have a negative affect on municipal and corporate debt. A further downgrade could make other countries’ debt, like Japan’s, more of a safe haven. Read Robert Powell on what to do if the U.S. is downgraded again.

Rehling also believes the payroll tax cut will not be extended but expects the issue of the Bush-era tax cuts and budget spending cuts to be kicked further down the road.

Expect volatility, then move on
Anticipating volatility this winter should mentally prepare investors to ride out the bumps and not fly out of stocks, according to Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors. On other words, don’t expect any sort of resolution and a lot of volatility until the new Congress is seated on Jan. 20, 2013.

“The lame-duck Congress won’t get anything done, so on the first day of the new Congress they’ll likely retroactively extend the Bush tax cuts,” he said.

Wren acknowledges that while many retail investors are hesitant to go into stocks because of past burns from the tech and housing bubbles, the U.S. equities market is a relative safe haven compared with other international markets.

He still foresees an S&P 500 target of 1,400 to 1,450 for the end of the year, from 1,365 on Thursday, and has overweight positions in consumer discretionary, materials and tech stocks.

ETFs such as the SPDR S&P Retail ETF /quotes/zigman/478011/quotes/nls/xrt XRT +0.34% , the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund /quotes/zigman/246177/quotes/nls/xly XLY +0.24% , and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund /quotes/zigman/1475411/quotes/nls/xlk XLK -0.03%  are all up about 15% to 16% from a year ago. On the flip side, ETFs such as the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund /quotes/zigman/246020/quotes/nls/xlb XLB -0.47%  are down about 5% from a year ago.

The volatility could start up well before U.S. elections if hopes for patching up Europe’s fiscal mess begin to unravel. Mitch Schlesinger, chief investment officer at FBB Capital Partners, points out that Germany’s Constitutional Court is expected to issue a verdict in mid-September on whether the European Stability Mechanism is constitutional under German law. Germany, which is set to contribute the most into the fund, still needs to ratify the treaty for the fund to take effect. Read more on German court hearing testimony.

Leading into the winter, Schlesinger is taking a defensive posture, favoring dividend-paying stocks like utilities, telecoms and consumer staples.

The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund /quotes/zigman/246354/quotes/nls/xlu XLU -0.22%  is up about 16% from a year ago and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund /quotes/zigman/246134/quotes/nls/xlp XLP -0.36%  is up 18%, whereas the iShares DJ U.S. Telecommunications Sector Index Fund /quotes/zigman/260920/quotes/nls/iyz IYZ -0.28%  is up 4%.

On the fixed income side, he favors investment-grade corporate debt with yields in the 4% area, although, he admits, that yield is getting tougher to come by. Yields on 10-year Treasurys /quotes/zigman/4868283/delayed 10_YEAR -2.72% , which have fallen below 1.4% in the past month, are about 1.6% currently, compared with 2.6% a year ago. The SPDR Barclays Capital Long Term Corporate Bond ETF /quotes/zigman/1523223/quotes/nls/lwc LWC +0.64%  is up 9% from a year ago.

As for the fiscal cliff, he foresees a moderate increase on capital gains and dividend tax rates, and perhaps even a rewriting of regulations after the new Congress begins.

“No want wants to address this before the election,” he said. “Congress put these rules in place and they can change them.”

There are two important, very important, issues facing the federal government in the next few months. The decisions made on these issues will set the direction for the country for years to come. I am not talking about the election, but the budget sequester and all the expiring tax provisions, both taking effect at the end of the year.

Unless Congress and the administration act, tax rates for all taxpayers will increase next year and a host of other tax provisions will dramatically change. This is the so-called tax cliff. It is complicated and more than significant.

Also, unless Congress acts and the administration cooperates, automatic budget reductions affecting defense and certain domestic programs will go into effect as a result of the Budget Control Act deal made last year. Due to the failure of the super committee to come up with any agreed-upon deficit reductions, the decision to make spending reductions was put on automatic pilot to make the landing.

The impact of the expiring tax provisions is well known, as is the inability of the two political parties to even discuss their differences. Let’s leave this one aside.

The budget sequester is another matter. This ill-conceived policy of making ad hoc cuts over a 10-year period was the poster boy for all those wanting to kick the can down the road. Many members of Congress and the president supported it, believing it would be undone. Well, guys, be careful what you vote for.

Republicans have been whining about the coming defense cuts. The secretary of defense alarmingly opposes them, most conservatives oppose them, and defense contractors oppose them. Economists warn about the impact of the reductions on the economy. A full-boat lobbying campaign to reverse them has been going on for months.

The $1.2 trillion budget pain caused by the sequester will hit domestic and defense spending, but the domestic side of the equation is getting lots less attention. A few groups are spreading tales of doom and gloom, human tragedy and the end of life as we know it if the reductions to Head Start, child care, AIDS programs, and many other domestic programs go into effect.

I understand all of these concerns. I also understand the federal budget is in complete disarray. The apparatus for making sound fiscal judgments is broken. The federal government borrows roughly $4 billion a day to finance the yearly trillion dollar plus deficit, a deficit that will soon pass the $16 trillion mark. It is unsustainable and to that economic fact there is no doubt.

So, What to do? I say, let the budget sequester go into effect for the following reasons:

1. It is not a $ 1.2 trillion “cut” in programs over the next 10 years. It is about $50 billion next year for defense and a like amount to a few domestic programs. (But not entitlements.) Ten-year projections are meaningless when Congress can change things at any time. Only next year matters.

A significant amount of money to be sure, but manageable on a short-term basis. I am not worried the country will be put in jeopardy and our considerable arsenal will collapse.

There is so much bloat, duplicate programs, fat and waste by government, this mini-Jenny Craig reduction program should barely hurt.

2. This country’s economic future and vitality cannot be based on making guns, airplanes, drones, electronics and bullets. I am not anti-national security, but defense spending should not be a national jobs program. The country simply cannot afford to subsidize every interest group that pleads its case.

3. Deficit reduction has to start, has to be serious and it has to involve “painful choices.” Defense is one of those choices, Idiotic domestic programs are another, and entitlements should be another. There needs to be careful consideration to help people who need help, but continuing funding the perceived needs of everyone for everything cannot go on forever.

4. The whole political process needs a jolt. Making the automatic cuts may be a catalyst to start a real process of addressing the problems.

5. The amount of the “cuts” is small in comparison to the overall federal budget and even smaller in the national macroeconomy. I doubt the amount of money that will not be spent will plunge us back into a recession and double-digit unemployment as the alarmists portray. If that is the case, then the economy is in an even-more precarious position. Individuals will be affected, but overall it is too small to make a big adverse difference.

In any event, there are so many to blame for all of this uncertainty, an uncertainty that is taking a toll on the economy, spending decisions and confidence. The broken political process and misguided notions that government is the savior of the individual gave us all of this.

The number one culprit is Barack Obama. The president of the United States appears to be disengaged. He seems to be only interested in raising cash for his campaign and denigrating Mitt Romney for being a successful businessman.

The Congress also deserves the blame for the unsavory medicine of the sequester. Speaker John Boehner, at least, deserves some credit for trying to pass some proposals; a budget, for example. However, on many of the strategic decisions on how to extradite us from the fiscal mess, he has come up short. Republicans decry the deficit, but when it comes time to do something, they run like scared rabbits.

Over in the Senate, it is barely worth commenting on the effort and performance of the one-song liberals led by Sen. Harry Reid. Their sole focus is on raising taxes on upper-income taxpayers; all the problems would be solved if they could only accomplish that dream.

This rancor and political games being played are frightening. Sometimes compromise is in order, some times not. But what is in order is a serious attempt to take up the issues, debate them and make the best decisions possible. Since that is not going to happen, let the sequester take effect and the next bunch can sort out the mess.

The tax issues are, of course, different matters altogether.
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-22 22:55 | 显示全部楼层
Juncker, who is the head of the eurogroup*, ruled out a quick decision on whether Greece should receive the next tranche of aid it is due, saying a decision would not come until October.

That's not a great shock. The Troika is not expected to issue its report into Greece until mid-September, so EU leaders then need time to evaluate it.

Speaking during a trip of Moldova, Merkel told reporters that she would not make any decision on the Greek programme at her meeting with Antonis Samaras on Friday.

Instead, she plans to wait for the Troika's report into Greece, which will detail how the country is performing against the various targets set by its lenders.

September 14 could be the crucial date. That's the day when eurozone finance ministers and central bankers are due in Cyprus to discuss the crisis – so the Troika will want to have its assessment on Greece ready for then.
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-24 21:37 | 显示全部楼层

Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium

There’s been buzz for months about the speech that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to deliver at the central bank’s annual gathering in the mountains, and yet the bearded former professor may not even deliver the event's most important address.

Bernanke ostensibly headlines the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed, and is due to deliver a speech on Friday morning that’s certain to receive intense coverage by the media and market participants alike. But it’s the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, who speaks on Saturday and whose utterances could yield a bigger market impact.

“Draghi’s way more important, because Europe’s the greater concern,” says Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics in Austin, Tex. “The U.S. story is one of modest but tepid growth, but the story in Europe is quite uncertain.”

Markets already have somewhat of a handle where the Federal Reserve is headed. The minutes from the last Fed meeting made it clear they are very close to acting.

What that action entails is of some debate of course. In the minutes from the last meeting, Fed policymakers identified two main possibilities: one, tweaking the pledge about how long rates will be kept low (that currently expires at the end of 2014), or two, starting a “large” asset buying program.

How large?

Well, the Congressional Budget Office is baking in so-called QE3 into its economic estimates. The $100 billion over a decade in new income the CBO estimates the Fed will earn roughly equates to $500 billion of purchases, assuming a 2% yield on 10-year Treasury debt.

That’s not a bad starting point for a guesstimate.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, one of the more dovish Fed members (and one without a vote this year), has suggested open-end purchases. In other words, instead of committing $600 billion to bond purchases like the Fed did with QE2, the central bank could commit to buying $75 billion to $100 billion of bonds a month, until the economy strengthens to a point the Fed is satisfied with — or inflation starts bubbling up.

There’s still doubts about when the Fed could take such action. Many say the Fed will be content to just play with the low-rates pledge in September, and then initiate a bond-buying program later in the year or possibly 2013 — well after the dust has settled on the latest presidential election.

And the debate, at least by Aug. 1, wasn’t settled on what assets to purchase, namely Treasury bonds or mortgage-backed securities.

So between timing, size, duration, composition and of course likelihood of asset purchases — the data has picked up since that Aug. 1 gathering — Bernanke has many topics to potentially address.

OK, that’s a lot. But still it might not be as important as what the ECB is up to.

Draghi set markets on fire in late July in London when he said this: “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.”

The markets were disappointed about a week later when Draghi didn’t quite deliver on that promise at a scheduled European Central Bank meeting — perhaps because he overpromised, or perhaps because of opposition from German central bankers.

Still, the momentary disappointment was not enough to curtain gains in many assets tied to the idea the euro area will remain intact. The euro /quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled EURUSD -0.52%  is only up about 3%, but the Spanish /quotes/zigman/2759620 XX:IBEX -0.95%  and Italian /quotes/zigman/1482176 XX:FTSEMIB -1.10%  stock market have stormed over 20% higher.

Even U.S. stocks /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX -0.24%   are up by about 6%, though of course, there could be other reasons for the stateside gains, including the improving U.S. economic data.

The ECB is due to convene on Sept. 6 and the market will be eagerly awaiting the decision on whether it will, at minimum, resume buying Spanish and Italian bonds on the secondary market. Draghi said earlier this month the ECB “may undertake outright open market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective.”

Will Draghi choose American soil to expand on what that means? (He did, after all, make the “it will be enough” comment in Britain, which is outside of the euro zone.)

Even if not, however, time’s running out for the Frankfurt-based central bank to make a splash.

“If they don’t do QE in the next two months, markets really won’t like it,” said Schenker. “And if they do it, it will be the trade of the year.”

The euro and equities came under pressure earlier following a report that the European Central Bank would not make an announcement at its meeting on Sept. 6 about whether it would buy peripheral sovereign debt to put a cap on bond yields, as many investors had been looking for. Instead, it will wait until after a German court rules on the region’s bailout fund later next month.

“The ECB seems to be indicating they won’t be announcing such a plan or perhaps they’ll make it contingent,” said David Ader and Ian Lyngen, bond strategists at CRT Capital Group. “In any event we’re getting a bid on back of this as [German] bunds rally.”

Treasury bonds gained this week on renewed expectations of more bond purchasing by the Federal Reserve as data indicate the country’s economic growth is still sluggish. Read more on bond rally, Fed.

The central bank’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo., is now a key event coming up, along with the U.S. employment report for August.

”Something more could be at hand to at the very least keep downward pressure on yields if not allow a retest of the absolute lows,” Ader and Lyngen wrote in a morning note. “The next several weeks are chock full of event risk.”

Draghi may be able to use Jackson Hole to unveil a detailed plan that would likely be set in motion when the ECB's governing council meets on September 6.

The ability of the ECB to act has two major implications:

The Fed does not need to act immediately to buoy the U.S. economy in efforts to defend it from Europe's troubles.

Faith in the Euro will rise causing the U.S. Dollar to fall and equity markets to rise.

Bernanke may still use the Jackson Hole platform to hint at a new stimulative policy, but the pressure is not as great as it once was.

the big dates in the September agenda will prove a source of uncertainty, particularly when it comes to Spain and Greece, the severity of the European recession, and the Netherlands (who could bring an austerity programme into question if the opposition wins the general elections on 12 September).

The question now is whether the Fed will act when it meets on 13 September. As economic activity has picked up in recent weeks, this suggests that no decision will be taken in September. At most, the Fed could announce that intervention rates will remain unchanged for an extended period. Against this backdrop, next week’s speech by Ben Bernanke at the Jackson Hole Symposium will be followed closely. A dovish tone would be likely to weigh on the greenback, but the latest US macroeconomic figures will also be important, particularly if they improve further, lessening the urgency for further quantitative easing. All in all, the US still has a little downside in the short term.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-8-24 22:29 编辑 ]
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-24 22:33 | 显示全部楼层
HSBC said its preliminary or “flash” reading of its China manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August fell to a nine-month low of 47.8 on a 100-point scale, dropping from July’s final print of 49.3.

The result suffered a drag from weakness in new orders and shipments, and marked the 10th straight month that Chinese manufacturing conditions have remained below the 50-point level, which separates contraction from expansion.

In comments accompanying the PMI release, HSBC economist Hongbin Qu said China “must step up” policy easing to help kick start new investment projects.

Falling orders dragged down the August flash PMI ... suggesting Chinese producers are still struggling with strong global headwinds,” Qu said.

Subcomponents in the PMI showed output now in contraction, reversing from expansion in July.

Further deterioration was seen in the new orders and new export orders subindexes, with both measures indicating contraction at an accelerating rate. And although the employment conditions reading were steady from July, they remained in contractionary territory.

Societe Generale economist Yao Wei saw little to cheer in the PMI survey, calling it “plainly awful,” and something that “unambiguously spells trouble.”

Export orders, she said, were at their weakest levels since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, while employment conditions were on par with levels not seen since April 2009.

Wei said the official PMI due out Sept. 1 was likely to slide below the 50 level for the first time this year, and that the government’s survey historically tracks with a “notable drop” whenever the HSBC preliminary PMI drops by more than 1 point.

“Clearly, the push from the government still pales in comparison to the combined force of the intensified external weakness and the shock waves from the housing-sector correction,” Wei said in a note.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu agreed it was clear that conditions were “fairly weak.”

“Regarding policy impact, we expect the Chinese government to step up policy easing/stimulus after August. Policy easing was constrained in July and August, as policy makers have been increasingly sensitive to rebounding home prices amid the leadership transition,” he said.

A day before the PMI result, People’s Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said the central bank stood ready for further easing.

Zhou, speaking on the sidelines of an economic seminar, said that all monetary-policy management tools must be on the table, responding to reporters’ questions on whether the central bank favored interest-rate cuts or reductions to the required reserve ratio.
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-25 17:04 | 显示全部楼层
Investors likely will gloss over a light smattering of economic data and corporate earnings in the coming week in anticipation of news coming out of the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo., according to analysts.

“Investors will be holding their breath over the week leading up to Jackson Hole,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors.

As major indexes turned in their first losing week in several weeks Friday, it appears as if everything is taking a back seat to the weekend Fed retreat that begins Friday in the Wyoming resort.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index , the S&P 500 Index  , and the Nasdaq Composite Index all finished higher Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated his claim that the central bank has the means to “ease financial conditions and strengthen the recovery.” Read more on scope of possible Fed easing.

But those gains weren't enough to sustain a recent string of weekly advances: six weeks in a row for the Dow industrials and the S&P 500, five in a row for the Nasdaq. For the week, the Dow index finished down 0.7%, the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.2%.

Bernanke is scheduled to speak on Friday, but at no specified time, so his speech could come after U.S. markets have closed for the week.

“The closer you get to Jackson Hole, the more it piques market interest,” said Hank Smith, chief investment officer at Haverford Trust Co. “He did give it away [Thursday] when he talked about having more tools in the box.”

Bernanke may not even be the main event at the retreat. The day after Bernanke, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi is scheduled to give a speech on Saturday. Draghi boosted markets a few weeks ago when he said the ECB would do everything in its power to preserve the euro, but investors are still searching for definite actions to back up those words. Read more on what Draghi may bring to Jackson Hole.

Any impact of quantitative easing would be limited to markets and do little for the economy, however, and won’t have as dramatic an effect as with the first two rounds of stimulus, Smith said.

The real question becomes how much anticipation of further quantitative easing measures has already been baked in to the market. Equities markets are up 5% to 8% over the past three months. Speculation about further QE measures has gone on all year.

“It amazes me the amount of attention the investment community pays to monetary policy rather than fiscal policy, but unfortunately nothing’s going on with that until after the election,” Smith said.

With major corporate earnings out of the way, and only a smattering of economic data due, the week before the three-day Labor Day holiday weekend — as well as the Fed retreat—may prove to be as quiet and low- volume as much of August has been.

While not regarded to have much market-moving potential, economic indicators that may come into play in the coming week include the June Case-Shiller home price index on Monday, the GDP revision for the second quarter on Wednesday, July personal income and spending on Thursday, and the Chicago PMI on Friday.

Of the 482 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported quarterly results this season, 70% have reported earnings above Wall Street estimates but only 42% have reported revenue above consensus estimates, according to John Butters, a senior earnings analyst at FactSet.

Smith said he’ll be looking at Tiffany & Co. /quotes/zigman/243577/quotes/nls/tif TIF +0.07% earnings on Monday as a snapshot of the mid-to-high end consumer.

On Wednesday, S&P 500 companies Brown-Forman Corp. /quotes/zigman/220587/quotes/nls/bf.b BF.B +0.79% , H.J. Heinz Co. /quotes/zigman/229153/quotes/nls/hnz HNZ +1.37% , and Joy Global Inc. /quotes/zigman/7601800/quotes/nls/joy JOY -2.20% report, and on Thursday, SAIC Inc. /quotes/zigman/388913/quotes/nls/sai SAI +0.34% releases quarterly results.

Tuesday, Aug. 28
President Barack Obama is in Iowa and Colorado on campaign events.

9 a.m.: Case-Shiller home-price index for June.

10 a.m.: Consumer-confidence index for August, released by the Conference Board.

Wednesday, Aug. 29
8:30 a.m.: Gross domestic product revision for the second quarter, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Pending-home sales index for July, released by the National Association of Realtors.

2 p.m.: Beige Book on regional economic conditions, released by the Federal Reserve.

Thursday, Aug. 30
8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, released by the Commerce Department.

8:30 a.m.: Personal income and consumer spending for July, released by the Labor Department.

Friday, Aug. 31
9:45 a.m.: Chicago PMI for August, released by the Institute of Supply Management.

9:55 a.m.: University of Michigan/Reuters consumer-sentiment index for August.

10 a.m.: Factory orders for July, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke addresses the Kansas City Fed’s annual meeting, in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says there’s room for the central bank to take more action in responding to critical questions from a top lawmaker on Capitol Hill.

Bernanke’s letter to Darrell Issa, the California Republican who heads the House Oversight and Government Reform committee, was dated Wednesday and obtained by MarketWatch on Friday. Read Bernanke's letter.

Issa had written Bernanke at the beginning of August and asked questions largely put forward by economists Allan Meltzer, David Stockman and Andy Kessler. Read Issa's letter.

Though the letter didn’t break new ground, it’s Bernanke’s first public comments since the early part of the month and shows that a spate of recent economic data showing growth hasn’t changed his views dramatically.

“There is scope for further action by the Federal Reserve to ease financial conditions and strengthen the recovery,” Bernanke said, in comments that largely echo what was said in the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting that ended Aug. 1.

He did allow there are potential costs and risks to consider before taking action.

He also said that so-called Operation Twist was still working its way through the economy, but that the fact the bond-swap program is still under way does not preclude further action. “Because monetary policy actions operate with a lag, the stance of policy must necessarily be set in light of a forecast of the future performance of the economy,” he said.

Bernanke also defended accusations that the Fed acts when the market pouts. “Markets understand that basic fact [that policy is set on future economic forecasts]; as a result, when new information becomes available regarding the future state of the economy, they draw their own inferences regarding the likely future course of policy.”

As for whether Fed action obscures signals for potential economic growth, hides risks of inflation and alters returns on investment, Bernanke responded by repeating the Fed’s mandate — to promote price stability and maximum sustainable employment, adding it’s “keenly attuned” to the risks of inflation.

To the charge reduced interest income to savers from quantitative easing is a “tax” on savers, Bernanke responded that it’s in everyone’s interest, both savers and borrowers, to have an economy performing at highest level of capacity.

He also said financial institutions aren’t executing carry trades on U.S. Treasurys, when they use short-term repo transactions to fund investments in longer-dated Treasury notes and bonds. Bernanke says this activity reflects the funding of inventories by securities dealers as part of their market-making activities and not an attempt to exploit differences between short- and long-term rates.

Bernanke is due to speak next Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyo. as part of the Kansas City Fed’s annual retreat.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-8-25 17:08 编辑 ]


203.13 KB, 下载次数: 20

回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-28 23:43 | 显示全部楼层

Internal discord leaves ECB’s threats toothless

A central bank’s ability to intimidate the financial markets through active, targeted intervention is directly proportional to its ability to deliver on promised action.

In the battle over the euro, Europe is far from speaking with one voice. The ECB Governing Council may decide in coming weeks, by majority vote, to purchase large quantities of government bonds issued by troubled euro states. This requires that Spain or Italy request an official European rescue program and agree to additional reforms and savings.

As soon as the bond purchases are announced, Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank president, could announce that he disagrees with the conditionality, the volume and the principle of the purchase program. The Bundesbank may of course go along with the action, out of “European solidarity”, but this would be under sufferance, and the German central bank would reserves the right permanently to pass critical comments.

At home and abroad, there would be a negative political reaction. The result: reduced effectiveness, higher risk, lower confidence. Just the opposite of what the ECB had in mind. Probably, the mere threat that the Bundesbank might act in this way would be enough to stop the program occurring.

This may be what Weidmann has in mind. Why else would he give an interview with the German news magazine Der Spiegel published Monday — its cover story titled “The Revolt of the Bundesbank” – in which he intensifies confrontation with ECB President Mario Draghi and the ECB Council.

Weidmann seems to have come to the conclusion that the polarization of the dispute in the last few weeks leaves him with no other choice but to go on the offensive and appeal to German and international public opinion (and the financial markets) over the head of the Governing Council. We are now in uncharted territory. Neither during the time when the Bundesbank was running the D-Mark (and Europe), nor since the euro was formed, have we been in a situation like this before.

In his Der Spiegel interview, Weidmann re-emphasizes a Big No to ECB bond purchases. “Such a policy is, for me, practically the same as state financing through the printing press. In a democracy, such a far-reaching mutualization of risks should be decided by parliaments and not by central banks … We should not understate the danger that central bank financing can lead to dependency like a drug.”

He also says the planned conditionality for the bond program actually puts independence at risk, since it creates “agreed actions between the state-owned rescue funds and the central banks… This gives rise to a link between fiscal and monetary policy.” There is a Weidmannesque Catch 22 here — ECB bond purchases with conditionality are ruled out because they infringe independence; without conditionality, they are ruled out on the grounds of moral hazard.

All this is topical because of the celebrated July 26 “do what it takes to preserve the euro” speech by ECB President Mario Draghi. It is acknowledged at the highest level that Draghi would have been more accurate had he said the ECB would do what it takes so long as others did what it takes. But this would have sounded a lot weaker. It would have introduced a note of bargaining in interactions with governments that the ECB (like Weidmann) wishes to avoid. The Draghi speech that has caused so much fuss was not scripted but contains key words and phrases that had all been used before.

Erroneous belief on financial markets that the speech represented a concrete plan has been fed further by rumors that central bankers are examining upholding ”ceilings” for yields of countries like Spain and Italy.

This is despite opposition from within the ECB (not just from Germany) on the grounds that “target zones” in the fixed-income market are even more complicated and dangerous than for exchange rates. Press leaks over bond market ceilings may have been launched by opponents of the scheme who are seeking to bury it under subsequent denials.

For all its plurality and diversity of opinion, in the field of geopolitics, the U.S. during the years of superpower confrontation would never have caused such confusion.

In monetary policy in a much smaller nation like Switzerland, where the National Bank since September 2011 has been running its own campaign, using “unlimited” intervention, against the overvaluation of the Swiss franc, there is a relatively strong consensus in favor of these measures.

The U.S. and Switzerland are intact countries with intact constitutions. Europe is not an intact unit. This explains why the ECB should be acting with assurance and sovereignty — and why it cannot. Weidmann’s weekend interview is actually helpful because it shows the limits of what the ECB can really do.

Over in Germany, the constitutional court will decide on 12 September whether the European Stability Mechanism violates German law and the Maastricht treaty's "no bailout" clause.

Hans-Werner Sinn, an economist who heads the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich, says:

There are serious concerns on all sides about the pending decision. Investors are worried that the court could oppose the ESM such that they would have to bear the losses from their bad investments. Taxpayers and pensioners in European countries that still have solid economies are worried that the court could pave the way for socialisation of eurozone debt, saddling them with the burden of these same investors' losses.

EC President Van Rompuy repeats euro is irreversible
Here is the full press statement from EC president Herman Van Rompuy after his meeting with Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy. A couple of quotes:

The current situation has forced us to recognise some of the flaws in the original architecture of the euro area and the extent to which these have fuelled and sustained the crisis. This is a long but necessary process and I will report on it at the European Council of October and December.He also stressed the need for a European banking union by December, with a deposit guarantee fund.


Let there be no doubt: The euro is irreversible. And let me insist again: Greece's future is undoubtedly in the euro area. But it is only by combining strong actions in each member states and strong actions collectively that we can put this crisis behind us.

It's particularly urgent to move forward with a banking union that integrates all the banks in the region. The European Commission will present concrete legislative proposals in September

The instant reaction to Mario Draghi's decision to ditch his Jackson Hole speech (see 10.27am) is that he is planning a big new announcement next Thursday, probably a bond-buying spree to take the market pressure off Spain and Italy, despite the Bundesbank's opposition.

But, as Ian Traynor writes from Brussels, the ECB president has other issues to deal with:

A few days after next week's meeting, the European Commission is also to unveil proposals for a new eurozone banking supervision regime, expected to confer or recommend vast new powers for the ECB as the main supervisory agency.

In his speech in Hamburg on Monday evening, Jörg Asmussen, a member of the ECB's six-strong executive, revealed several things that can be expected over the next fortnight.

Firstly, the bond-buying intervention now looks a given, albeit hedged with conditions. The ECB will intervene in the secondary markets to buy bonds with short maturities, he said, but only if the eurozone's bailout funds first became active in the primary markets, in other words directly buying up distressed government bonds. That introduces a strong element of politics since eurozone governments and finance ministers will need to decide to use the bailout funds before ECB action is triggered.

Lessons have been learned, Asmussen pointed out bluntly.

"The mistake with Italy in summer last year when the ECB bought Italian bonds while the time was unfortunately not used for the necessary adjustment measures must not be repeated."

The issue of seniority in relation to private creditors also had to be sorted to offset the risk of investor flight from troubled countries. And any country benefitting from the bond-buying would need to succumb, as Draghi insisted at the beginning of the month, to troika-style terms set by Brussels and national capitals, predicaments that Mariano Rajoy in Madrid and Mario Monti in Rome are keen to avoid.

On the new banking supervisory regime, Asmussen made plain that the ECB is up for it, despite increasing reservations about a concentration of power in Frankfurt and a possible conflict of interest with its monetary policy remit.

"The Commission will present its proposals on September 11 foreseeing a transfer of supervisory tasks to the ECB," said Asmussen. "The ECB is ready to accept this responsibility, but under certain conditions."

He insisted twice that the new supervisor must be empowered to close down bad banks.

"The ECB has to be given all the instruments needed to carry out the tasks of bank supervision effectively. In particular that means access to all the necessary information, intervention rights and the right to close down non-viable banks. Without these minimum tools, the ECB will not take on the responsibility. The risk to the reputation of the institution would be too great."

The troika, or the men in black as the Greeks have dubbed them, are off to the Greek capital next week for long-awaited in-depth scrutiny of Greece's reforms and to decide whether Athens has done enough on the terms of its second bailout to warrant a release of funds to keep the country from collapsing in October.

The mantra in Brussels, Berlin and elsewhere is: 'Let's wait and see what the troika reports.' The verdict is now not expected until October, perhaps setting the scene for a momentous EU summit in mid-October that may have to decide whether the eurozone stays at 17 or shrinks to 16.

Despite the reluctance of eurozone politicians to second-guess the troika, Jörg Asmussen at the European Central Bank, was less mealy-mouthed in a speech he delivered in Hamburg on Monday evening.

"Because of the elections in the spring, the reforms in Greece have come to a standstill," he declared clearly. "And what's been achieved is far from enough. It's also clear that every delay in reforms, every missed deadline, costs money: money that has either has to be saved elsewhere or made available by the partners."
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-29 18:15 | 显示全部楼层
The eurozone is entering one of the most nail-biting weeks since the debt crisis began almost three years ago.

In Athens, Frankfurt and Paris, political and economic battles are looming that will help determine the future of the single currency. In the Netherlands, the euro will dominate a general election campaign that could see another incumbent leader unseated. And in Karlsruhe, Germany's top judges will rule on whether Europe's new bailout mechanism, a key plank in the region's response to the crisis, is legal.

Europe's leaders cannot win the battle to save the euro in September, but they can certainly lose it.

Around 5 September: Troika returns to Athens
The debt inspectors return to Greece next week to finish their assessment of the country's long-term growth and debt reduction. The troika's verdict will determine whether Greece receives the next slice of bailout aid, worth Euro 31.2bn (£24.8bn). Greece's pleas for its austerity programme to be delayed by two years also hang on the report. Back in July, officials from the International Monetary Fund, the ECB and the European commission warned Athens that it was set to miss 210 out of 300 targets, a figure described as "staggering" by Martin Koehring at the Economist Intelligence Unit. He fears that a poor report could lead to Greece being ejected from the euro, triggering "severe contagion" within the eurozone.

"The Greek bank recapitalisation scheme depends on Greece receiving this Euro 31.2bn tranche; hence, further delays would create uncertainty about Greek financial stability, and could eventually trigger a Greek disorderly default and euro exit," said Koehring.

He also fears that some German politicians have concluded, wrongly in his view, that the eurozone could now survive if Greece tumbled out.

"In our view, at a time when the euro area's mechanisms to prevent major contagion are not yet in place (the ECB is not yet a lender of last resort and the euro area's permanent rescue fund has not even been ratified yet), a 'Grexit' could undermine German chancellor Angela Merkel's euro rescue strategy fundamentally … A 'Grexit' before the firewall around Spain and Italy is sufficiently strong could thus herald the end of the euro area as a whole."

The report was scheduled for mid-September, but could drag into October (as they say in the City, bad numbers take longer to add up…).

6 September: ECB governing council meeting
It is not often that a monthly meeting of the ECB's governing council is described as eagerly awaited. Expectations are high for a major new bond-buying programme to drive down Spain and Italy's borrowing costs, but there are also fears that the Bundesbank will refuse to allow it. After ECB president Mario Draghi pledged last month to do everything within his mandate to protect the eurozone, City experts fear a rout if he fails to deliver. "Prices are only where they are now because there is a very material expectation priced in that the ECB will intervene. If September's meeting gives those expectations a knockback, we're really in trouble, and could see a level of crisis not seen before," said Paul McNamara at investment management firm GAM. McNamara believes it is crucial that the ECB puts its balance sheet into play to calm the crisis.

There were rumours last week that the ECB might announce new caps on Spain and Italy's borrowing costs. This appears unlikely, though. McNamara predicts Draghi will "keep Italy and Spain's feet to the fire" by pledging to make unlimited interventions, but not at a set price. That would maintain the pressure on both countries to keep reforming their economies.

"The balance of probability is very strong that we will not seen an explicit yield target," said McNamara. It is also likely that the ECB will only agree to start mopping up sovereign debt in the 'secondary market' if the eurozone's bailout funds have already begun buying bonds at auction, following a formal request for help from a sovereign.

12 September: German constitutional court ruling
Germany's highest court is considering whether the European stability mechanism, the new permanent bailout fund for struggling eurozone countries, is legal. Opponents of the fund claim it violates the "no bailout" clause written in the Maastricht treaty, and could leave Germany facing immense losses. The court could insist on certain amendments, or qualifications, in return for Germany's backing. Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, fears that anything short of full approval would "leave that spanner in the works", as questions over the fund would drag on into the autumn. Confusion would also undermine any decisions taken by the ECB on 6 September.

12 September: Netherlands general election
The Dutch government collapsed in April 2012 after far-right leader Geert Wilders refused to back its emergency budget. Four months on, it is left-wing leader Emile Roemer, not Wilders, who is on track for major gains at the ballot box. Latest polls put Roemer's Socialist party ahead of the incumbent Liberals. This matters because if Roemer wins he is likely to push for a less austere approach to the crisis, potentially shaking the northern European consensus. Political analysts warn, though, that the Socialists may struggle to form a coalition.

Late September: French budget for 2013
With public support already sliding, François Hollande's government could face a backlash when it presents its budget for 2013. It is likely to cut its growth forecasts, which would mean new spending cuts or higher taxes to keep France's deficit reduction plans on target.
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-8 12:01 | 显示全部楼层
Monday, Sept. 10
President Barack Obama travels to Colorado and Nevada this week for campaign events.

Congress returns from August recess.

Tuesday, Sept. 11
8:30 a.m.: Trade deficit for July, released by the Commerce Department.

Wednesday, Sept. 12
9 a.m.: Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee begins two-day meeting on monetary policy and interest rates, at Fed headquarters.

Thursday, Sept. 13
8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Producer price index for August, released by the Labor Department.

10 a.m.: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau chief Richard Cordray testifies on the agency’s semi-annual report to Congress, at the Senate Banking Committee.

12:30 p.m.: Fed releases statement on monetary policy.

2:15 p.m.: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds press conference.

Friday, Sept. 14
8:30 a.m.: Retail sales for August, released by the Commerce Department.

8:30 a.m.: Consumer price index for August, released by the Labor Department.

9:15 a.m.: Industrial production and capacity utilization for August, released by the Fed.

9:55 a.m.: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for September, released by UMich/Reuters.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel threw her support behind European Central Bank President Mario Draghi in the face of criticism from German lawmakers, media and the Bundesbank of the ECB's plan to intervene in bond markets, the Wall Street Journal reported late Friday. A spokesman for Merkel said the ECB is acting within the framework of its mandate and the ECB's move is aimed at ensuring stability, the newspaper said. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble also spoke out in support of the ECB's bond program, refuting the Bundesbank's criticism that ECB's action is "tantamount to financing governments by printing bank notes," the Journal reported.

China’s economic planners this week signed off on an economic stimulus package roundly estimated at $150 billion, lifting the lid on what many investors were betting Friday marks the next upswing of the global commodities cycle.

At the same time, as if on cue, Glencore International Inc. sweetened its bid for Xstrata PLC, keeping alive a $36 billion merger deal that would forge the world’s fourth-biggest mining company backed by the world’s biggest commodities trading house.

These two headlines electrified commodities stocks, especially those of coal and iron ore companies that sell their output to steel mills. That’s because if China is going to upgrade and expand its roads, bridges, railways, subways, ports and airports, it’s going to need a lot more steel than its own mills can crank out, even when taking into account this summer’s slump in Chinese steel production.  

The scope of China’s pending orders is huge. Investors recognized this immediately, sending shares of iron ore miners sharply higher around the world. Big international coal mining companies’ shares also jumped. It didn’t stop there. Shares of U.S.-based Joy Global Inc., the world’s biggest manufacturer of high-end underground coal mining equipment, surged as much as 7.5%.

On a day when the rest of the stock market was muddling along nearly unchanged, there was a practically a stampede by investors trying to position themselves in the materials sector for the next big boom.

But is all this enthusiasm merited? Hard to say. China has yet to place any orders, and expect it to first fill all available capacity at its own steel mills before it does.

There’s also some skepticism among economists that China’s latest grand stimulus plan will actually amount to much of an increase in infrastructure investment from current levels.

There’s also reason to suspect that today’s rally, especially in coal stocks, is getting way ahead of the market, that the pop is a speculative reaction far removed from the underlying fundamentals. Much of the buying spree can probably be pinned on bullish sentiment that’s been quashed for months by excess steel inventories and, in coal’s case, killer competition from a sudden abundance of cheap natural gas in the United States.

This is not to say that the mighty Chinese growth engine can’t once again pull these markets higher, but without a comparable upswing in manufacturing from other corners of the world — especially North America and Europe — today’s big rally in coal and steel stocks could be both premature and overdone, putting the session’s biggest gainers on a trajectory that is still likely to fall short of the levels they hit in June 2008, the peak of the last cycle.

But it’s hard to resist jumping on board when such a downtrodden market stirs, even if it’s a brief ride.

Private payrolls growth slows down
The U.S. Department of Labor delivered disappointing jobs news Friday, reporting that the U.S. economy gained a meager 96,000 jobs in August. Government employment ticked lower, while private payrolls gained 103,000, a sharp decrease from 162,000 in July. However, the government estimate contrasts sharply with data earlier in the week, reported by payrolls processor Automatic Data Processing Inc., indicating that private-sector job growth picked up in August, recording the largest employment gain in five months, with payrolls rising 201,000. Still, analysts say Friday’s jobs report increases the likelihood of new action from the Federal Reserve when it meets next week.

Services employment rebounds
While the government jobs report was a disappointment, there was good news on services employment from two independent groups this week. ADP reported that private payrolls, led by services, jumped up in August. Also, the Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of non-manufacturing industries showed that employment rebounded, rising 4.5 points to 53.8% in August from 49.3% in July. Readings above 50% indicate an expansion.

Manufacturing employment growth slows
While services employment improved in August, job growth in manufacturing industries slowed down, according to data released this week. ISM’s report on manufacturing showed an overall contraction, with a gauge of employment declining to 51.6% in August — the lowest rate since November 2009 — from 52.0% in July. Readings above 50% indicate an expansion.

Labor underutilization declines
A broad gauge of labor underutilization declined in August, decreasing to 14.7% from 15% in July, according to government statistics. This measure, known as the U-6 rate, includes unemployed workers, as well as marginally-attached workers (they would like to work but haven’t been looking for a job), and part-time workers who would like a full-time job, but can’t get a spot. The rate was about 14.2% when President Obama took office, and about 8.8% when the recession began. August’s reading is down from a recent peak of more than 17% in late 2009.

Employment-population ratio ticks down
The employment-population ratio, which measures the percentage of the population that is at least 16-years old and employed, offers a broad view of the U.S. labor market. The ratio ticked down to 58.3% in August from 58.4% in July. At the start of the Great Recession, the ratio stood at almost 63%. Some of the decrease over time is attributable to the aging population, but Friday’s report fueled analysts’ concerns that job growth remains too low.
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-8 12:09 | 显示全部楼层
September 14 could be the crucial date. That's the day when eurozone finance ministers and central bankers are due in Cyprus to discuss the crisis – so the Troika will want to have its assessment on Greece ready for then.

There were also signs of heightened tensions within the coalition government ahead of meetings with the Troika next week.

But panic not. A Reuters poll of 20 top lawyers has found unanimous agreement that the court will throw out the request for a temporary injunction to halt the ESM and the Pact. However, 12 of those questioned expect the Court (which sits in the city of Karlsruhe), to also insist that German liability has to be limited.

The results of a second stage of the Spanish banks audit, which would value the banks, the deadline for a group of auditors to present full reports on the capital needs of Spain’s financial sector has been pushed to September

Meetings of the Governing Council of the ECB in 2012

19 September 2012

4 October 2012 (hosted by Banka Slovenije)

Meetings of the General Council of the ECB in 2012

20 September 2012

Press conferences in 2012

4 October 2012 (hosted by Banka Slovenije)

EU Summit
18-19 October

A Federal Reserve meeting should dominate financial coverage next week, as market observers wait to see whether the Fed will step in with new interventions to jumpstart the slow U.S. recovery.

Also, a raft of consumer and trade data are expected next week, but on the equities side, there are only a few notable companies posting their latest earnings.

Apple is expected to unveil its new iteration of the iPhone at an event on Wednesday.

Handful of Reports Surrounding the Fed

The main event next week for economy watchers will be the two-day Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting, kicking off Wednesday, and its accompanying press conference Thursday. Investors and economists will also get a boatload of data on consumers, trade and inflation.

The top-line inflation numbers for August are likely to show big increases, but the rises will reflect gasoline prices. Core rates that exclude food and energy are expected to be muted, leaving the Fed able to focus on growth, not price pressures. That is the general view of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.

The producer-price index due Thursday is expected to jump by 1.0% in August, but the core index is forecast to be up just 0.2%.

Consumer prices will be reported Friday, after the Fed has met and gone home. The median forecast calls for the CPI to be up 0.6% last month, but the core index is projected to have increased only 0.2%.

Data on consumer spending and attitudes also will be on display next Friday.

Dollar’s Fate Tied to Fed Meeting

The dollar’s fate will be closely linked to the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.

Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs numbers have ramped up expectations the central bank could announce a third round of bond buying at the close of its two-day meeting. This so-called quantitative easing would involve printing money and would lower U.S. bond yields, two factors likely to weaken the dollar.

Increasingly, many investors are betting the central bank will pull the trigger on another bond-purchase program. The question they face is when and in what form.

But some market participants say while this Friday’s weak jobs numbers open the door for more Fed interventions, other recent indicators–including auto sales–point to an improving U.S. economy. So the Fed may not be in such a rush to announce more bond buying. Instead, it may simply extend the window where it expects to keep interest rates near zero.

Quarterly Results Due From Pier One United Natural Foods UNFI -0.05%  

A handful of retailers–Pier 1 Imports Inc. (PIR) Five Below Inc FIVE -1.39%. (FIVE) Orchard Supply Hardware Corp OSH +2.07%. (OSH) and privately held Neiman Marcus Group Inc.–are scheduled to report earnings next week.

Pier 1 late last month forecast fiscal second-quarter earnings slightly ahead of consensus estimates, citing customers’ favorable response to its new merchandise assortments. The home-furnishings retailer has enjoyed a turnaround since the recession, when it was on the brink of bankruptcy.

Discount retailer Five Below, which went public in mid-July, will report its first earnings as a public company and is expected to post a small profit.

Also, casino-games company Shuffle Master Inc SHFL -0.33%. (SHFL) and organic-foods distributor United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI) should report their latest quarterly results. Chipmaker Texas Instruments Inc. TXN -1.29%(TXN) should also provide a mid-quarter financial update.

Euro Movement Driven by German Court Decision, ECB

The outlook for the euro zone looks a lot less ominous now that the European Central Bank has waded into the crisis with its plan to snap up unlimited amounts of debt issued by the bloc’s more fiscally strained member states.

But a German constitutional court decision next Wednesday on the legality of two euro-zone bailout vehicles poses a major risk for the euro. If the court were to rule the temporary European Financial Stability Facility and the permanent European Stability Mechanism are unconstitutional, it would call into question the central infrastructure the monetary union’s 17 member nations have used to calm the debt crisis.

It would also hamper the latest bond-buying plan announced by the European Central Bank this week, which pumped the euro higher and brought down the cost of borrowing for Italy and Spain.

Since the German parliament has already approved the bailout mechanism, chances of the German court rendering it illegal are very low, said Marc Chandler, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, adding “it does pose some risk.”

Also Wednesday, the Netherlands holds parliamentary elections.

Conferences and events

Among the significant conferences next week are Denver Gold Group’s Denver Gold Forum from Sunday to Wednesday in Denver; Barclays Capital Global Financial Services Conference from Monday to Friday in New York City; Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference MS +5.11%from Monday to Wednesday in New York City; Rodman & Renshaw Annual Global Investment Conference from Sunday to Tuesday in New York City; RBC Capital Market Global Industrials Conference from Tuesday to Wednesday in Las Vegas; Deutsche Bank dbAccess Technology Conference from Tuesday to Thursday in Las Vegas; ThinkEquity Growth Conference from Wednesday to Thursday in New York City; CL King & Associates Best Ideas Conference from Wednesday to Thursday in New York City; and Morgan Stanley Industrials & Autos Conference from Thursday to Friday in New York City.

Apple Inc. also invited media to a Sept. 12 product announcement Tuesday at which the company is widely expected to announce a new iPhone.



July Consumer Credit (3:00 p.m. Eastern Time): Seen expanding to $7 billion from $6.5 billion a month earlier.


Casey’s General Stores, Del Monte, Five Below, John Wiley & Sons, Majestic Entertainment, Orchard Supply Hardware
Palo Alto Networks, Shuffle Master, Titan Machinery



August NFIB Small Business Index (7:30 a.m.)

July U.S. trade deficit (8:30 a.m.): Seen at $44.8 billion from $42.9 billion a month earlier.

July Job Openings and Labor Turnover (10:00 a.m.)


Hanwha Solar, McDonald’s (monthly), Texas Instruments and United Natural Foods



August Import Prices (8:30 a.m.): Seen rising 1.5% after falling 0.6% a month earlier.

July Wholesale Inventories (10:00 a.m.): Seen expanding 0.5% after declining 0.2% a month ago.


Pall Spartech SEH -0.18%


Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.): Seen rising to 370,000 from 365,000 a week earlier.

August Producer Price Index (8:30 a.m.): Seen rising 1.0% after expanding 0.3% a month earlier.

August Federal Budget (2:00 p.m.)


Analogic, K12, Neiman Marcus, Pier 1 Imports WW Grainger GWW +0.04%(monthly)



August Retail Sales (8:30 a.m.): Seen rising 0.9% after jumping 0.8% a month ago.

August Consumer Price Index (8:30): Seen rising 0.6% after coming in unchanged a month earlier.

August Industrial Production (9:15): Consensus sees it falling 0.1% after a 0.6% rise a month earlier.

August Capacity Utilization (9:15): Seen at 79.2% from 79.3% a month ago.

September Reuters/UMich Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) (9:55 a.m.): Seen at 73.5 from 74.3 a month earlier

July Business Inventories (10:00): Seen up 0.4% after rising 0.1% a month earlier.


Nothing of note.

Monday, 10 September
European Parliament
European Parliament plenary session (Strasbourg)

Tuesday, 11 September
European Parliament
European Parliament plenary session (Strasbourg)
EU budget 2013. Parliament will debate the member states' stance on next year's EU Budget: MEPs' initial response was negative, as deep cuts are proposed in growth-stimulating areas like R&D and innovation.
Energy efficiency: Parliament will vote on a new directive to introduce mandatory renovation of public buildings, energy-saving schemes for utilities and energy audits for all large firms (debate and vote).
Rights for crime victims: all victims of crime abroad will get the same basic rights EU-wide, such as psychological support and help with translation, under a new directive to be voted on Wednesday (debate Tuesday, vote Wednesday).
Russia/Syria/foreign policy: Parliament will debate the plight of Syria and events in Russia, including the Pussy Riot case, with Catherine Ashton. MEPs will also call for a strategic concept to improve the consistency and effectiveness of the EU's external action, in their annual common foreign and security policy debate (debate Tuesday, votes Wednesday, Thursday).

Wednesday, 12 September
European Parliament
European Parliament plenary session (Strasbourg)
State of the Union: Commission President José Manuel Barroso will present his flagship plans to Parliament in his annual State of the Union speech on Wednesday, followed by a debate. He is likely to focus on ways to tackle the Eurozone crisis and to advocate an ambitious long-run EU budget for growth. On Tuesday, MEPs will vote a resolution setting out their priorities for the Commission's 2013 work programme.
Banking Union: MEPs will quiz Commissioner Barnier on his banking union plans and are set to call for an ambitious supervision system (debate Wednesday, vote Thursday).
Romania: MEPs will debate political developments in Romania with the Council and Commission, including the 29 July referendum bid to impeach President Traian Basescu.
Wednesday, 12 September
European Commission
Commission to propose a single banking supervision mechanism (Brussels)
The Commission will present proposals to design a single banking supervision mechanism in the euro area, further strengthening our response to the current crisis while fully preserving the integrity of the single market. A single supervision mechanism, built around the European Central Bank (ECB), will be a major step forward. It will send a strong political signal of credibility to our partners and to global investors. It will show once again the irreversibility of the euro. The Commission expects these proposals to be adopted by the end of the year, in order for the new system to enter into force early in 2013, as a key component of a "banking union".
These proposals will address the key questions of the concrete functioning of the new supervisory role for the ECB; the relationship between national supervisors and the ECB; bridging the interface between euro area countries and those not participating in the euro and clarifying the role of the European Banking Authority in this context.
Wednesday, 12 September
European Commission
President Barroso will deliver the State of the Union Address 2012 (Strasbourg)
The President of the Commission, José Manuel Barroso, will deliver the third "State of the Union Address" at the European Parliament at 9 o'clock. The speech will be followed by a debate in plenary with the leaders of the political groups and other members of the European Parliament.
Thursday, 13 September
European Parliament
European Parliament plenary session (Strasbourg)

Friday, 14 - Saturday, 15 September
Council of the EU
Informal Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Nicosia)
An informal meeting of the Economic and Financial Affairs (Ecofin) Council is traditionally hosted by the Member State holding the EU presidency. Participants include the EU member states' ECOFIN-ministers and central bank governors, representatives from the EU institutions and international organisations. The Council meeting is expected to discuss current economic and financial issues and will be composed of two joint working sessions as well as working lunches.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-9-8 13:35 编辑 ]
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-12 21:15 | 显示全部楼层
Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has said that the European Stability Mechanism could come into force "within a few weeks", how the constitutional court has had its say.

That fits with Jean-Claude Juncker's statement that the ESM's board of governors will meet for the first time on 8 October

And just to clarify one point. The ESM is described as a euro 700bn fund – that reflects the euro 80bn of capital that is being provided by euro countries, plus euro 620bn of guarantees.

The ESM will have a lending capacity of euro 500bn.

Juncker added that the Fiscal Pact (which imposes controls on national budgets) will take a little longer. He said the treaty on Stability, Cooperation and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union will also come into force once twelve euro countries have ratified it, but not earlier than 1 January 2013.

Germany's constitutional court has given the green light for Germany's president to sign the euro 700bn European Stability Mechanism into German law.

That takes away the danger of the bailout fund being blocked.

But there are also some key conditions:

1) The court has rules that German liability to the ESM must not exceed euro 190bn without asking the Bundestag for approval.

2) Both houses of the German Parliament must be kept informed about how the funds within the ESM are deployed.

At present, the ESM has euro 700bn of firepower at its disposal. That would not be enough to fund a full bailout of both Spain and Italy, for example. Clearly, series of votes on size of the ESM in the Bundestag could get sensitive in the months ahead of the German federal elections. Constitutional court will check if OMT is a legal act that goes furtherthe power Germany transferred to European level

Further down the road, the gameplan is also that the ESM becomes the eurozone banking resolution authority i.e. the money is used to restructure or wind up failing banks along with a resolution levy put up by the banks themselves in the aim of avoiding direct taxpayer-funded bank bailouts. The ECB does not want to take on this role although it will decide which banks need to be wound up or restructured.

They said the ESM should be used to directly capitalise banks rather than lending the money first to governments, but only on condition that eurozone banks were policed by the ECB.

• Cap of euro 190bn on German's contribution to the European Stability Mechanism, which can only be overturned by the Bundestag

•Both houses of German Parliament need to be adequately informed about all ESM decisions – something which needs to be enshrined in “international law"

•Reinforced that Bundestag approval needed for all activations of the ESM

•Explicit ban on ESM borrowing directly from the European Central Bank

•The German Government can terminate ESM at any time, as recognised under “customary international law”

•In its full ruling, expected in early-2013, the Court will also consider whether the ECB’s bond-buying programme, the OMT, has transferred illegal degrees of sovereignty to the EU-level

The "explicit ban" on the ECB lending to the ESM is effectively a ban on the ESM being given a banking licence. That would in theory have allowed it to 'leverage up' its firepower, but was already seen as a non-starter....

...especially as the ECB has now agreed its unlimited bond-buying scheme, which would be activated alongside the ESM...

Open Europe also predicts more courtroom drama in the months, and years, ahead:

As the crisis piles on pressure for further EU integration – via a banking union and debt pooling – more court cases will inevitably follow.

There are plenty of potential legal pitfalls ahead including: direct losses for Germany on loans to Greece, ECB losses on Greek exposure, pooling of risk through bank resolution fund and backdoor Eurobonds through the OMT.

Protests underway in Athens

Unions presenting civil servants and private sector workers have promised the demonstrations are "just the beginning," vowing to stage a general strike later this month when the controversial measures - the focus of fierce horse-trading with the troika and infighting in the coalition government -- are brought to parliament for vote.

Dow Jones is reporting that the decision on whether to grant Greece its next tranche of aid, worth over euro 31bn, could be delayed until November!
Originally scheduled for this month, the decision had already slipped into October. It is dependent on the upcoming Troika report into the state of the Greek economy, which is expected to show that Athens has made some progress towards its bailout targets, but is lagging behind....

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-9-12 23:26 编辑 ]
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-10-2 15:10 | 显示全部楼层
Monday 01Oct

Talks between the Troika and the Greek government over its package of cuts has hit a new hurdle.
Around euor 2bn of the euro 13.5bn package is being disputed by the inspectors from the IMF, threatening to derail Athens' push for its next aid tranche. Prime minister Antonis Samaras is trying to rally support from other European leaders tonight.Apparently the troika [officials] aren’t at all convinced by the measures the government has proposed,” said one insider. “They also think the strategy the government has come up with to lay off civil servants is too vague.”
Greece's draft budget showed that the country faces another of recession. Its GDP is expected to shrink by 3.8% in 2013, after a 6.5% contraction this year
Europe's unemployment crisis has worsened again, hitting a new record high. There are now nearly 18.2m people out of work in the eurozone, and almost 25.5m across the EU. The data also showed that 55.4% of young people in Greece are out of work
New manufacturing data showed that Europe almost certainly entered recession in the last three months. The eurozone manufacturing PMI came in at 46.1, showing another fall in output. France suffering its worst reading in 41 months.
World markets rallied despite the bad news.
Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy held talks with the EC's Olli Rehn. Neither man appeared in good spirits

After months of criticism, European leaders are preparing to point the finger at the US, China and Japan G7 meeting next week.

The rally was partly fueled by the decent US manufacturing data, and also due to relief that last Friday night's Spanish bank stress tests didn't show a larger black hole.
Traders also shrugged off this morning's record jobless data in the eurozone, and another month of falling manufacturing output.
While today's economic data from Spain, Italy, Germany and France was disappointing, it was less disappointing than markets had been expecting. Record unemployment in Europe has also been shrugged off, hitting all-time highs at 11.4%....
Concerns about the viability or otherwise of last week's Spanish bank stress tests, appear to have been put to one side for now with markets getting the fourth quarter off to a positive start, growth concerns notwithstanding.
It emerged last week that Northern and Southern European countries now disagree rather fundamentally over the deal hammered out at the Summit at the end of June. Did they agree to move swiftly to a full-blooded banking union in which the toxic debts of countries such as Spain would be purged via the new bailout fund, or did they simply decide to inch towards a less rigorous bank union in which only future bad debt, not legacy ones, would be addressed?
It really, really matters. "the dwindling chances of a banking union" threaten to derail the eurozone again by undermining Mario Draghi's decision to put the European Central Bank's balance sheet into play to help pin borrowing costs down.
Münchau adds:Whenever the ECB helps, the political process slows down. This is the true tragedy of the eurozone’s crisis management. We are now back at the point before Mr Draghi announced his programme – where the stated policies are inconsistent with a survival of the eurozone.

Oct. 4 : The European Central Bank takes its show on the road for one of its two yearly Governing Council meetings outside Frankfurt. The meeting in the Slovenian capital of Ljubljana isn’t expected to produce any fresh policy moves. ECB President Mario Draghi last month outlined a detailed plan that would see the central bank buy potentially unlimited government bonds in concert with the euro zone’s rescue funds, but first a country must apply for help from the funds and agree to abide by strict policy conditions.

Oct. 8 -9 : Euro-zone finance ministers meet on Oct. 8, followed by a gathering of European Union finance ministers on Oct. 9. Speculation is mounting that Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy could finally bite the bullet and make a formal request for a full bailout ahead of the confab, leaving finance ministers to discuss the rescue. See: Rajoy denies near-term bailout request: report.

But a Reuters report indicated German officials are reluctant to go back to parliament to request participation in a full Spanish bailout so soon after agreeing to a smaller rescue of Spanish banks. See: Spain ready for bailout, Germany objects: report .

Oct. 18-19 : If the Oct. 8-9 meeting in Luxembourg doesn’t produce a bailout request, attention is likely to turn to the European Union leaders’ summit on Oct. 18 and 19.

Oct. 21 : Regional politics will also be in the spotlight. Local elections are set to take place in Spain’s Galicia region and Basque Country on Oct. 21. Some observers contend Rajoy may seek to wait until after the elections before making any aid request.

Meanwhile, in the background, officials from Greece’s so-called troika of international lenders—the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and the ECB—have resumed talks with Greek officials over Athens’s compliance with the terms of its bailout.

News reports say the troika is questioning the government’s proposed deficit-reduction measures.

The Greek government wants to present the measures and its 2013 budget to parliament in time for the Oct. 8 meeting of euro-zone finance ministers in an effort to convince European officials to disburse the next tranche of aid for the country, noted analysts at Lloyds Bank in London.

....expand domestic spending in coming months, including moves that will see it tap a 1 trillion yuan ($158.1 billion) fiscal surplus. The research house said the package is likely to include tax cuts, as well as additional spending on infrastructure, public housing, social welfare and education.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-10-7 00:46 编辑 ]
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-10-7 20:11 | 显示全部楼层

First Week in Oct

The Labor Department has had its say. This week we’ll find out if the Federal Reserve’s business contacts share the same enthusiasm about the jobs market that government statisticians have unearthed.

Odds are, they probably won’t, at least not the strength that the sharp drop in the unemployment rate would suggest. When the Federal Reserve releases on Wednesday its Beige Book — a collection of anecdotes about the economy — the labor market will be a focus. The Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims report also will be a key indicator this week.
Oct. 11Trade deficit-$44.0 bln-$42.0 bln
Oct. 11Weekly jobless claims368,000367,000
Oct. 12 Producer pridce index0.9%1.7%
Oct. 12Core PPI0.2%0.2%
Oct. 12UMich consumer sentiment78.278.3

So far, the Fed hasn’t been impressed. The central bank started a program to buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities every month until it sees unspecified improvement. And the last Beige Book reported that employment “was holding steady or growing only slightly” in most parts of the country.

And that’s why some say that the bond sell-off from Friday might not be justified.

“[Friday’s] long-bond sell-off suggests investors now believe another dose of U.S. Treasury purchases/’Operation Twist’ is less likely. Treasury bears beware! We are some way from seeing the “substantial improvement in the labor market outlook” that [Federal Reserve Chairman Ben] Bernanke requires if additional asset purchases and other unconventional tools are not to be deployed,” said Jamie Dannhauser of Lombard Street Research.

But even with a somewhat suspect labor market, consumers are starting to do their part.

Retail spending has been good, car sales very strong, consumer confidence has started rising, even housing data has begun to pick up. The final University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters consumer sentiment report is due Friday.

The fact the consumer is moving in one direction, businesses moving in another, is I think important,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist of Naroff Economic Advisors. “It begins to isolate the impact of the fiscal cliff,” he said, referring to the series of scheduled tax hikes and spending cuts that will be triggered in 2013 unless Congress reaches a deal to avert them.

“Households aren’t sitting around saying, ‘Oh my god, we’re going to go off the fiscal cliff, I’m not going to spend. But businesses are,” Naroff said.

That’s why Naroff is expecting the first quarter of next year to be very strong — unless Congress doesn’t reach a deal to avert the fiscal cliff. “Then all bets are off,” he said.

The other key indicator is the trade deficit for August, which the Commerce Department will release Thursday.

Trade between the U.S. and Europe has held up fairly well this year even with the euro-zone debt crisis, but it began to sour in July. On a year-over-year basis, goods exports to Europe fell 1% in July, after seeing growth of as much as 16% as recently as February.

“The structure of a slowdown, once it starts, it doesn’t start off broad based,” Naroff said. “The August number will give us a real good indication about where we are.”

Plus, the August trade report will have implications for the election. That’s because it is the last trade report that will make it into the Commerce Department initial estimate of third-quarter growth. (Commerce will estimate September trade in the first estimate of Q3 GDP.)

Economists polled by MarketWatch are currently anticipating a 1.6% growth rate — mediocre, though marginally better than the 1.3% from the second quarter.

Spain regional elections due Oct. 21.
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



 楼主| 发表于 2012-10-14 23:15 | 显示全部楼层
On the one hand, it looks like exports and manufacturing are contracting, while on the other, consumer confidence appears to be firming.

At the same time, the unemployment rate fell in September below 8% for the first time since President Barack Obama took office and jobless claims sank to the lowest level in four years

Ricchiuto said he is not implying a conspiracy theory like former General Electric CEO Jack Welch, who famously charged that the labor market improvement in September was a political fix.

“Instead, I believe that the data is simply being distorted by the powerful crosscurrents in the economy that have emerged as a result of several years of a sub-par recovery process,” Ricchiuto said.

This coming week’s data may only add to the confusion. At first glance, the data will show decent retail sales, high inflation, and relatively healthy manufacturing and housing reports.

But beneath the surface is a different story.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast that the Commerce Department on Monday will report that retail sales will rise 1.1% in September after a 0.9% gain in the prior month. But a lot of the increase is due to higher gas prices. For instance, in August, sales at gasoline stations increased 5.5%, the most in three years.

Analysts like to strip out sales of autos, gasoline and building materials to get a better sense of the underlying strength of consumer spending.

On that basis, “we’re looking for an modest 0.3% gain in core sales, not quite as gang-busters as the headline number,” said Michael Hanson, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Core sales fell 0.1% in August.

Overall consumer spending likely rose only 2% in the third quarter as modest job growth continues to restrain incomes, said Sal Guatieri, economist at BMO Capital Markets. This is up only slightly from a 1.5% rate in the April-June quarter.

Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, is expected at pop 0.5% in September mainly due to a rise in gasoline, and almost matching its 0.6% gain in August. This data, due Tuesday from the Labor Department, would be the largest back-to-back monthly gain in the index in four years. Prices at the pump rose to $3.91 per gallon in September from $3.78 in August, according to economists at Credit Suisse. Measured from a year earlier, the CPI will edge up to a 1.9% rate from 1.7% in August.

Many economists believe the energy spike will not last.

By November and December, there should be some reversal in gasoline prices, said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight.

Underlying inflation is probably less strong. Core CPI inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to rise a more modest 0.2% in September following a 0.1% gain in the prior month.

Industrial production should decline a slight 0.1% in September after a steep 1.2% drop in August, the biggest decline since March 2009. Production has slowed to a crawl in the third quarter, analysts said, hurt by the slowdown in Europe and Asia and uncertainty generated by the looming fiscal cliff. The U.S. is set for an outright decline in exports of goods in the third quarter, Gault of IHS said.

Housing starts should jump 1.7% in September to 763,000 units, the highest level in four years, following a 2.3% gain in the prior month.

After a sharp 7.8% gain in August, existing home sales should retreat by 2.5% in September to 4.70 million units, according to the MarketWatch survey.
But even these two housing reports come with a caveat. The housing gains remain modest relative to the steep drop in activity since the bursting of the bubble.

“Housing fell by much more than the rest of the economy, and at some point it ought to rebound much more strongly, but that has not happened yet,” Hanson of Bank of America said.

Overall, Ricchiuto said he was going to go with the goods data rather than the labor market data.

The concept of a sharp rebound in labor market conditions in the midst of a sharp global slowdown “is hard to imagine,” he said.
Oct. 15Retail sales0.9%0.9%
Oct. 15Retail sales ex-autos0.8%0.8%
Oct. 15Empire state index-4.4-10.4
Oct.. 16Consumer price index0.5%0.6%
Oct. 16Core CPI0.2%0.1%
Oct. 16Industrial production0.2%-1.2%
Oct. 16Home builders' index4240
Oct. 17Housing starts770,000750,000
Oct. 18Weekly jobless claims365,000339,000
Oct. 18Leading indicators0.2%-0.1%
Oct. 18Philly Fed0.0-1.9
Oct. 19Existing home sales4.80 mln4.82 mln

Key data releases due out from China in coming days should provide clues about the underlying direction of the mainland economy, with analysts saying they’ll be watching for signs of whether recent optimism that conditions are improving is indeed warranted.

Figures for September, as well as the third quarter, will be released over a six-day period through Thursday, potentially casting light on the state of conditions in the No. 2 global economy. Reading the outlook for China and its major trading partners has proven difficult for economists and other interested observers of late.

Societe Generale economist Wei Yao said gains in China’s major stock market indexes this week are indicative of what she believes is a brightening picture in the short term. The Shanghai Composite Index /quotes/zigman/1859015 CN:000001 +0.10%  rallied on Monday and then consolidated at higher levels over the balance of last week.

China’s stock markets had been pricing in a hard landing for the economy earlier this year, discounting for negatives that have included uncertainty over the upcoming senior-level leadership shuffle in Beijing.

Among the reports to watch closely amid the coming deluge, Yao singled out import and export data for September, due out Saturday, and will be looking for confirmation of improving trade conditions.

Exports will rise 6% for the month on year, while imports are forecast to be up 4%, according to forecasts by SocGen. That compares to a gain of 2.7% and a contraction 2.6%, respectively, in August.

Figures already released by South Korea and Taiwan were better than expected, suggesting the pace of activity is picking up around the region.

“If China also shows the same trend, it is going to be another positive going into the fourth quarter,” Yao said.

Output and GDP
Industrial production figures, due out Thursday, also will provide insight into the health of China's export-dependent economy, according to Yao.

Said Yao: “I’m looking for a small pickup. If it’s there, that supports the market; if not, then we need to reassess what’s going on.”

Industrial output is forecast by SocGen to rise 9% for the month on year, up from 8.9% growth in August, marking the first improvement growth in five months.

Third-quarter gross domestic product data, also due out Thursday, will serve as another important indicator.

The data are expected to show China’s GDP cooled for the seventh straight quarter, to a 7.4% annualized growth rate, according to consensus forecasts compiled by Bloomberg News. That compares to growth of 7.6% growth in the second quarter.

Kevin Lai, Daiwa Capital markets economist, said investors have “brushed aside” concerns of a economic deceleration in China, even as the International Monetary fund earlier this week cut its own forecast for China’s growth in 2012.

He cautioned, however, that regional stock markets, which have been on a more positive footing recently, could come under selling pressure.

“If there is a negative surprise, there may be a growth scare again,” Lai said.

Other analysts highlighted the importance of inflation data due out Monday, including figures for consumer and wholesale prices.

Barclays analysts expect cooling vegetable prices to help keep overall food prices in check, while higher fuel costs are will add to non-food inflation slightly.

The consumer price index will likely have risen 1.9% for the month, according to estimates by SocGen, cooling slightly from a 2% gain in August.

Conversely, the producer price index is forecast to print at negative 3.7%, according to the French bank’s forecasts. This would signal worsening deflation after August’s 3.5% drop in wholesale prices.

Finally, September retail sales, due out Thursday, are expected to garner close attention as a barometer of the health of the mainland consumer.

Retail sales should rise 12.9% for the month on year, according to SogGen. In August, retail sales were up 13.2% on year.
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报



发表于 2015-12-23 22:07 来自手机 | 显示全部楼层
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册会员 新浪微博登陆


QQ|小黑屋|手机版|海风股票论坛 ( 闽ICP备05030991号-1 )|网站地图

GMT+8, 2018-3-22 16:04

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表