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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-8 19:07 | 显示全部楼层
The results of a second stage of the Spanish banks audit, which would value the banks, the deadline for a group of auditors to present full reports on the capital needs of Spain’s financial sector has been pushed to September from July 31, a Spanish central bank source said Tuesday.

The move has been agreed with Spain’s government, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank, as well as the auditing firms — Deloitte, KPMG, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Ernst & Young — themselves, this person added.

The delay is intended to provide the auditors more time to complete their evaluations of the banks’ books and also responds to the fact that many Spanish companies and government institutions are only thinly staffed in August, a traditional holiday month when the cabinet and parliament rarely meet, this person said.

Germany's Federal Constitutional Court will announce a decision on lawsuits challenging the country's participation in the permanent euro-zone rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, and the fiscal pact on Sept. 12, the court said Monday in a statement on its website. The court held a public hearing earlier this month to examine complaints that participation in the fund and the fiscal pact violated German law by taking some authority over the national budget away from parliament.

27July. Spain acknowledged earlier this week it might require a full bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund totaling 300 billion euros ($366 billion) unless its borrowing costs fell, Reuters reported Friday, citing an unnamed euro-zone official. The report said Economy Minister Luis de Guindos discussed the issue with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble in a meeting in Berlin on Tuesday as the yield on Spain's 10-year bond traded near 7.6%, the report said. The official said Germany wasn't comfortable with the idea of a bailout now, Reuters reported. Publicly, Spain has repeatedly insisted it won't require a full bailout. The 10-year yield fell sharply Thursday on hopes the European Central Bank will take action to contain yields. The yield fell another 0.23 percentage point Friday to 6.67%, according to Tradeweb. "Nothing will happen until the ESM is online. Once it is operational we will see what the borrowing costs for Spain are and maybe we will return to the question," the official said.

A Euro 300bn bailout would take Spain out of the financial markets until the end of 2014, assuming it comes on top of the Euro 100bn bank bailout already agreed.

Reuters' Brussels bureau is certainly churning out the exclusives – also reporting that the European Central Bank and national central banks are considering taking "significant losses" on the value of their Greek bond holdings, in an effort to keep Greece in the eurozone.

The central banks dodged taking a haircut in the debt restructuring earlier this year, but some officials now believe this is the best (or even the only) way to relieve Greece's debt burden and give it more time.

"The big mistake was that we didn't manage to haircut the Greek government bonds that were in the investment portfolios of the national central banks. That was really, really stupid," the official told Reuters.

There's a problem, though. Some central banks can't afford to take a loss (even though they bought Greek bonds at a significant discount to their face value.

Nouriel Roubini, meanwhile, warns that it will not be enough for the ECB to simply restart its bond-buying efforts (the Securities Markets Programme). The SMP's budget needs to be larger, and the purchases need to be more permanent than before, he argues:

ECB's SMP purchase of 200bn was ineffective as it was temporary, intermittent, reluctant, sterilized.Will the new round of SMP be different?

Greece - At the centre of today’s discussions were the measures Greece must enact in what has become another high-wire act to make an estimated Euro 11.5 bn euro in savings from Greece over the course of 2013-2014. Unable to decide and with opposition from the far-left anti-bailout front mounting, Samaras and his partners -- Evangelos Venizelos of the socialist Pasok and Fotis Kouvellis of the Democratic Left -- agreed to reconvene on Monday 30 July in what has been billed as a final attempt to “finally agree” on the measures. Analysts said everything would now rest on the outcome of talks between political leaders on Monday. Yesterday 26Jul, you may recall, Citigroup said it believed there was now a 90% chance of Greece leaving.

• July 31-August 1

• September 12-13; Chairman’s press conference

• October 23-24

• December 11-12; Chairman’s press conference

2013 (tentative):

• January 29-30

• March 19-20; Chairman’s press conference

• April 30-May 1

• June 18-19; Chairman’s press conference

• July 30-31

• September 17-18; Chairman’s press conference

• October 29-30

• December 17-18; Chairman’s press conference

Slow payrolls and unchanged unemployment rate
The headline numbers of the June employment report weren’t flattering: 80,000 nonfarm payrolls growth and an 8.2% unemployment rate. That concludes the worst quarterly period since the third quarter of 2011, when the debate over the debt ceiling rattled nerves.

Hours worked and earnings growth
Economists did take some heart from the growth in both average hours worked and in weekly earnings. With gasoline prices dropping, the average working American is now seeing a modest gain in real (or inflation-adjusted) earnings.

Temporary-service jobs
The gain in temporary services jobs was another bright spot. Companies often hire on a temporary basis before deciding to bring workers on permanently, so an uptick in this segment can at times be a leading indicator for better times ahead.

Retail sector jobs
The retail side of the picture wasn’t so bright, with 5,000 jobs lost in June. That fits some of the more downbeat news to come out of the industry, including Thursday’s sales reports.

G-7 unemployment rates
Compared to other industrialized nations, U.S. unemployment of 8.2% is about middle of the pack — showing how stagnating growth is a problem across the globe.

Judging QE3’s likelihood as Obama, Romney reactEconomists: Friday report alone won’t trigger ‘QE3’ from Fed

Economists broadly agreed that Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs data had confirmed the U.S. economy was in a soft patch, but it wasn’t enough to immediately trigger another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.

Here is a roundup of reactions from economists and lawmakers to a report revealing that the U.S. economy added 80,000 jobs in June and that the unemployment rate remained at 8.2%. Read MarketWatch's story about jobs data.

• “Jobs report probably not weak enough to trigger QE3 at Aug. 1 FOMC but recent weakness is clearly more than a weather payback.” — David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley, via Twitter .

• “Nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations, rising just 80K. This and the small 1K revision over the prior three months confirms that the economy has hit another soft patch. The result will be an extension of the Fed’s short rate guidance at their next policy deliberations. The risk of QE3 has increased but I still think it will be a year-end decision, not a summer policy move.” — Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist, Mizuho Securities USA.

• “There is a general sense of slowing in the economy where increasing uncertainty has led to softer data, but there is a risk that instead of a temporary soft patch this could be the beginning of a longer-lasting downshift in economic activity.” — Ellen Zentner, Nomura Securities International Inc.

• “We will need to see a pick-up in growth and hiring to prevent further gradual increases in the unemployment rate. Therefore, the report is QE3-friendly, although not a cause of panic for the Fed. They will, no doubt, continue to lay the groundwork for more easing in the coming months, however, given the dimming prospects for acceleration in growth.” — Julia Coronado, BNP Paribas

• “I want to get back to a time when middle-class families and those working to get into the middle class have some basic security. That’s our goal. So we’ve got to grow the economy even faster. And we’ve got to put even more people back to work.” — President Barack Obama.

• “Millions and millions of families are struggling and suffering because the president’s policies have not worked. ... Forty-one months above 8% [unemployment] pretty much defines lack of success. ... America can do better and this kick in the gut has got to end.” — Mitt Romney, Republican presidential candidate.

• “According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released this morning, private businesses added 84,000 jobs in June. However, this is still fewer jobs than we have recently seen created each month, and it is nowhere near where we need to be if we are to ensure quality, well paying jobs for all Americans who seek them.” — House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, Democrat of Maryland.

• “Today’s report shows the private sector clearly isn’t ‘doing fine’ and that President Obama’s policies have failed. The president bet on a failed ‘stimulus’ spending binge that led to 41 months of unemployment above 8 percent.” — House Speaker John Boehner, Republican of Ohio.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-7-27 20:59 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-8 22:28 | 显示全部楼层
This week, ministers discuss economic governance proposals and adopt country-specific recommendations on economic and fiscal policies; the Commission proposes legislation on collective rights management, and announces the final work programme of the FP7 research programme; and MEPs discuss how to discuss how to proceed on the EU patent. The week's events in the European Union including EU Council, Commission and Parliament meetings and other EU-related conferences and events. Events for the week of 9 to 15 July 2012.
Monday, 9 July
European Parliament
European Parliament committee meetings (Brussels)
Mario Draghi: European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will join the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee for their regular monetary dialogue. They will focus on the Eurozone's long-term future, bank recapitalisations and sovereign debt management.
Council of the EUEurogroup (Brussels)
The Eurogroup, composed of the Member States whose currency is the euro, meets normally the day before the Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting and deals with issues relating to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).
European CommissionEUR 8 billion call for research and innovation projects (Brussels)
Commissioner for Research, Innovation and Science Máire Geoghegan-Quinn will announce the final and biggest work programme of the Seventh Framework Programme for research and development (FP7). The work programme will inject some EUR 8 billion into Europe's research and innovation system, as an investment in competitiveness and Europe's prospects for growth and jobs. The call for projects will give details of the main fields of research and innovation to be covered and where action at EU level is essential to address common challenges such as secure and clean energy, anti-microbial resistance and sustainable water use.
Tuesday, 10 July
Council of the EU
Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Brussels)
The Council will discuss - in the light of the position taken by the European Parliament - two proposals aimed at further improving economic governance in the euro area. It will also be briefed on negotiations with the European Parliament on proposals amending the EU's rules on bank capital requirements. And amongst the other items on its agenda, the Council will adopt country-specific recommendations to the member states on their economic and fiscal policies.
Council of the EUInformal meeting of ministers of Health (Nicosia, Cyprus)
Important health issues of common interest among Member States will be discussed by the Ministers of Health. The Informal Meeting of Ministers will be followed by an Attache Trip.
European ParliamentEuropean Parliament committee meetings (Brussels)
EU patent: following the Council's move to modify the EU patent deal reached with MEPs, which prompted Parliament's last session decision to postpone the plenary vote, the Legal Affairs Committee will discuss how to proceed.
Victims' rights: the Civil Liberties and Women's Rights Committees will vote on Parliament/Council deal to give all crime victims the same basic rights and minimum protection across the EU. About 75 million people fall victim to crime each year in the EU .
Access to lawyers: the Civil Liberties Committee will vote on a new EU law guaranteeing all suspects and accused persons access to a lawyer from the moment they are held in police custody until the end of the proceedings.
Wednesday, 11 July
European Parliament
European Parliament committee meetings (Brussels)
Cohesion policy: the Regional Affairs Committee will vote on legislation to govern EU regional and cohesion policy in 2014-2020, focusing on growth, jobs and the EU 2020 aims. MEPs will call for more flexibility for funding beneficiaries and more involvement of regional and local players.
European CommissionCommission proposes legislation on collective rights management (Brussels)
The Commission will present its proposal for a Directive on collective management of copyright and related rights and multi-territorial licensing of rights in musical works for online uses in the internal market.
European Economic and Social CommitteeCyprus EU presidency: priorities at the EESC (Brussels)
At the start of the Cyprus EU Presidency and on the occasion of the European Economic and Social Committee's July plenary session, Andreas D. Mavroyiannis, Deputy Minister to the President of the Republic of Cyprus for European Affairs, will introduce the Cyprus EU Presidency and set out plans for its cooperation with the EESC over the next six months.
Thursday, 12 July
European Parliament
European Parliament committee meetings (Brussels)
Energy efficiency: the Energy Committee will vote on a Parliament/Council deal on the new energy efficiency directive, which would require Member States to set themselves national targets and save energy in specific ways, such as renovating buildings and stipulating energy savings to be delivered by utilities.
Wednesday, 11 - Thursday, 12 July
European Economic and Social Committee
European Economic and Social Committee plenary session (Brussels)
The 344 Members of the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) meet in plenary session in Brussels nine times a year, to discuss and adopt opinions, reports and resolutions.
Wednesday, 11 - Sunday, 15 July
Euroscience Open Forum (Dublin)
The Euroscience Open Forum (ESOF) is Europe's largest, general science meeting and is held in a leading Europe city every two years. ESOF aims to: Showcase the latest advances in science and technology; Promote a dialogue on the role of science and technology in society and public policy; Stimulate and provoke public interest, excitement and debate about science and technology.
Thursday, 12 July
Council of the EU
Informal meeting of Ministers of Employment and Social Policy (Nicosia)
The success of the Europe 2020 Strategy depends on the involvement of Social Partners, NGOs and Local Authorities, both at European level in the monitoring of the implementation of the strategy and throughout the process of the European Semester but also at national level, in the formulation and implementation of the National Reform Programmes. The Cyprus Presidency has decided to dedicate most of the Informal Meeting of Ministers for Employment and Social Affairs to reinvigorate discussions on this important issue.
The Commission, the Council and the Parliament bring together religious leaders (Brussels)
Discussions on intergenerational solidarity and other important demographic challenges, like tackling unemployment, fostering active ageing, and reconciling work and private life, are on the agenda of the annual high-level meeting of religious leaders at the Commission's headquarters. The meeting, under the motto 'Intergenerational Solidarity: Setting the Parameters for Tomorrow's Society in Europe', will be attended by more than twenty senior representatives from Christian, Muslim and Jewish religions and from the Hindu and Bahá'í communities from all over Europe.
Friday, 13 July
European Commission
Commission organizes conference on CAP towards 2020 (Brussels)
The Commission will organize a conference on the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) towards 2020 - Taking stock with civil society. The event is a follow-up to the broad consultation on the challenges faced by European agriculture in 2010, which culminated in a similar conference in July 2010.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-8 22:41 | 显示全部楼层
--Monday, July 9: ESM scheduled to come into force. Euro-zone finance ministers meeting. Euro-zone finance ministers to discuss Spain's EUR100 billion bank-aid deal.
French T-bill auction.
Greek T-bill auction (tentative).
Slovakian bond auction.

--Tuesday, July 10: German Constitutional Court hearing on ESM.

--Thursday, July 12: Italian T-bill auction.

--Friday, July 13: Italian bond auction.

--Monday, July 16: French T-bill auction.

--Tuesday, July 17: Spanish T-bill auction.
Belgian treasury certificate auction.
Greek T-bill auction (tentative).
German June ZEW economic-sentiment indicator.

--Thursday, July 19: Spanish and French bond auctions.

--Friday, July 20: German July Ifo business-climate index.

--Monday, July 23: French T-bill auction.

--Tuesday, July 24: Spanish T-bill auction.

--Wednesday, 25 July: ECB lending survey. The ECB is due to publish its third lending survey of the year on Wednesday 25 July. The survey could provide the ECB with a key piece of evidence to justify additional 3Y LTROs — if lending standards tighten again, another liquidity push may be necessary to avert a harsher credit crunch. The ECB plans to publish one more lending survey this year, on 31 October

--Thursday, July 26: Italian bond auction. Euro-area June M3/private-sector loan data. Spanish finance minister to testify in parliament on bank bailout.
--Friday, July 27: Italian T-bill auction.

--Monday, July 30: French T-bill auction. Italian and Belgian bond auctions. Spanish bond redemptions totaling EUR12.9 billion.
--Tuesday, July 31: Belgian treasury certificate auction. The conclusion of the second phase of Spain's bank sector review. Euro-area flash July inflation data.

-- Wednesday, Aug. 1: Euro-zone July manufacturing PMI and May unemployment data.
-- Thursday, Aug. 2: ECB rate decision and press conference. Spanish bond auction.

-- Friday, Aug. 3: Euro-zone July services PMI data.
-- Tuesday, Aug. 7: Preliminary Italian 2Q GDP. June German manufacturing orders.

-- Friday, Aug. 10: Optional Belgian bond auction.
-- Monday, Aug. 13: Italian T-bill auction.

-- Tuesday, Aug. 14: Preliminary French/German/EU 2Q GDP. German July ZEW economic-sentiment indicator. Italian bond auction. Greek T-bill auction (tentative).
-- Thursday, Aug. 16: Spanish bond auction.

-- Tuesday, Aug. 21: Spanish T-bill auction. Greek T-bill auction (tentative).
-- Monday, Aug. 27: German August Ifo business-climate index.

-- Tuesday, Aug. 28: Final Spanish 2Q GDP. Spanish T-bill auction. Euro-area July M3/private-sector loan data. Italian bond auction.
-- Wednesday, Aug. 29: Italian T-bill auction.

-- Thursday, Aug. 30: Italian bond auction.
-- Friday, Aug. 31: Euro-area flash August inflation data.

Meetings of the Governing Council of the ECB in 2012

19 July 2012

2 August 2012

6 September 2012

19 September 2012

4 October 2012 (hosted by Banka Slovenije)

18 October 2012

8 November 2012

22 November 2012

6 December 2012

19 December 2012

Meetings of the General Council of the ECB in 2012

20 September 2012

20 December 2012

Press conferences in 2012

2 August 2012

6 September 2012

4 October 2012 (hosted by Banka Slovenije)

8 November 2012

6 December 2012

EU Summit
18-19 October

13-14 December

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-7-18 23:04 编辑 ]
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发表于 2012-7-9 09:48 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-14 10:32 | 显示全部楼层
Monday, July 16
8:30 a.m.: Retail sales for June, released by the Commerce Department.

8:30 a.m.: Empire State index for July, released by the New York Federal Reserve Bank.

10 a.m.: Business inventories for May, released by the Commerce Department.

Tuesday, July 17
8:30 a.m.: Consumer-price index for June, released by the Labor Department.

9:15 a.m.: Industrial production and capacity utilization for June, released by the Federal Reserve.

10 a.m.: Home-builders’ index for July, released by the National Association of Home Builders.

10 a.m.: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers the central bank’s semiannual monetary-policy report on Congress, at the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.

10 a.m.: Commodities and Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler testifies at oversight hearing on the continuing implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act, at the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee.

Wednesday, July 18
8:30 a.m.: Housing starts for June, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies on monetary policy and the state of the economy, at the House Financial Services Committee.

Noon: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein discusses U.S. and global economic issues at the Economic Club of Washington.

1 p.m.: Federal Communications Commission Chairman Julius Genachowski testifies at hearing on the role of federal government in expanding broadband access to small businesses, at the House Small Business Committee.

2 p.m.: Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on regional economic conditions throughout the country.

3 p.m.: Hearing on the global competitiveness of the U.S. aviation industry, at the Senate Commerce subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety and Security.

Thursday, July 19
8:30 a.m.: Weekly unemployment claims, released by the Labor Department.

9:30 a.m.: Hearing on tax reform and business-tax issues currently facing U.S. manufacturing companies, at the House Ways and Means Committee.

10 a.m.: Existing home sales for June, released by the National Association of Realtors.

10 a.m.: Leading economic indicators for June, released by the Conference Board.

10 a.m.: Philly Fed report on business activity in the Philadelphia region, released by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank.

Friday, July 20
No economic reports scheduled.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-14 21:22 | 显示全部楼层
Earnings outlooks as U.S. companies approach the so-called “fiscal cliff” are likely to gain more attention from investors in the coming week than the quarterly results themselves, according to analysts.

With a third of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and more than 80 S&P 500 Index companies reporting in the coming week, most analysts are going into the second-quarter earnings season with lowered expectations and an eye on the next quarter.

“Markets would rather see the guidance,” said John Canally, an investment strategist at LPL Financial. “Next week, you want to see improved or unchanged.”

Therein lies the challenge, however, with U.S. economic growth hitting more speed bumps and similar slowdowns in Europe and China causing revenue to dry up at multinationals.

China reported its economy expanded by 7.6% in the second quarter, its weakest rate of growth in three years. Read more on China.
A weaker euro relative to the dollar compounded with European consumers tightening belts also puts a crimp in international revenue for U.S. companies. Read how the strong dollar is hurting U.S. bottom lines.

On Friday, equity markets reacted favorably to earnings from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. The gains Friday were enough to give both the Dow and the S&P 500 Index slight gains on the week and break multi-session losing streaks. Read more on stocks Friday.

Of the 30 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings in the past week, 70% have reported earnings above consensus estimates, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet.

Two things to look out for in the coming earnings week are how globally exposed companies are dealing with uncertainty out of Europe for the rest of the year, and whether more chief executives will start addressing the looming U.S. fiscal cliff, said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC.

Luschini said investors want to hear more from CEOs on how they are dealing with the domestic uncertainties of possible tax increases and government spending cuts now, and how that is affecting their investment and hiring decisions.

The strategist referred to a Financial Times opinion piece written by Honeywell CEO David Cote urging more business leaders pressure Washington to take more definitive actions on curbing growing U.S. debt before the bond market does. Honeywell reports quarterly earnings on Wednesday. Read more on Honeywell CEO op-ed.

On Monday, earnings from Citigroup Inc. and Gannett Co. are scheduled.  

The Tuesday Johnson & Johnson Inc., Coca-Cola Co. , Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , Intel Corp. , and Yahoo Inc. report.

On Wednesday comes quarterly results from Bank of America Corp.  , American Express Co , IBM , Abbott Laboratories, Yum Brands Inc. , and Qualcomm Inc.  

Then, on Thursday, Microsoft Corp. and Textron Inc.  report, along with Google Inc. /quotes/zigman/93888/quotes/nls/goog GOOG +1.06%   Read more on Google's expected 'messy' results.

Wrapping up the week, General Electric Co. and Schlumberger Ltd. report on Friday.

Bernanke, economic indicators in play Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke may sway markets in the coming week during his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. On Tuesday, Bernanke testifies to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and to the House Financial Services panel on Wednesday.
Expect the central banker to venture into making policy pronouncements to Congress, said Canally.

“I see Bernanke saying, ‘Don’t tell me howto do my job while I tell you how to do yours,’” Canally said, explaining Bernanke will likely press the point that unless Congress breaks its deadlock and moves to fix the fiscal cliff, it will matter little regarding what actions the Fed takes or doesn’t take.

“All eyes are on Washington because policy decisions are more of a driver of earnings than individual companies,” said Scott Armiger, manager of the $500 million Christiana Trust at Wilmington Savings Fund Society.

In addition to events out of Washington, June retail sales data on Monday will be of particular interest to Armiger. See MarketWatch's economic calendar.
We care about retail because the consumer is two-thirds of the economy, and they seem to be struggling a bit,” Armiger said.

Growth in retail sales may not necessarily translate into good news for the economy if one considers it’s being financed by more debt, Armiger said.

Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve reported that U.S. consumers increased their debt in May by $17.1 billion, the biggest increase since December, and the ninth-straight monthly gain.

Other U.S. indicators during the week include the July Empire State index on Monday and Philadelphia Fed report on Thursday, the June consumer price index and the July home builders index on Tuesday, and the Beige Book on Wednesday.

Overseas, Spain and France are scheduled to hold bond auctions on Thursday in advance of a Friday meeting of European officials to hammer out the final details of the Spanish bank bailout. While expectations are low for the meeting, a best-case scenario is that there are no major stumbles out of Spain or France in advance of the meeting, Canally said.

Thursday, 19 July
European Central Bank
Governing council meeting of the European Central Bank (Frankfurt)
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) takes its monetary policy decision for the euro area.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-7-15 22:48 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-28 11:55 | 显示全部楼层
Investors are likely to turn attention to the Fed's next rate meeting, July auto and retail sales and the monthly U.S. payrolls report.

Geithner will travel to Germany to meet with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble in the resort island of Sylt on Monday afternoon.

Afterwards, he will fly to Frankfurt for a meeting with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

There will not be any press conference after either meeting, a Treasury official said.

Geithner has been looking for a chance to meet European leaders before the summer holidays, the official said. No major announcement is expected.

Financial markets have rallied this week after Draghi indicated that the central bank is ready to resume purchases of Spanish and Italian bonds in a bid to bring down borrowing costs and ensure the survival of the euro.

“Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro,” Draghi said. Read ‘Draghi pledge puts ECB bond buys back on table’

Earlier Friday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande vowed to protect the euro zone. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande released a joint statement saying they were determined to do ”everything possible to protect the euro zone.” The statement came after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi also pledged action to save the euro on Thursday.

Germany and France “are deeply committed to the integrity of the euro zone,” the statement said.

Hopes that next week’s monetary policy meeting will bring at least some hint of additional economic stimulus also helped support oil, said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions in Houston.

Ahead of the meeting and key data, including unemployment figures, many traders wanted to be in the oil markets, Larry said. Any allusions to more stimulus will put oil “on the path to $100” a barrel, he added.

The euro rose to almost $1.24 in afternoon trading Friday before crashing back to near flat on the day as traders consider the ramifications of different policy options that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reportedly is considering. The euro "is being caught between balance sheet [expansion] and particularly the rate cut being negative for the euro, and the obvious positive euro implications of policymakers trying harder to find a comprehensive solution," said Alan Ruskin, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank.

Monday, July 30
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner travels to Europe to meet with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble; a joint news conference is planned following the meeting.

No economic indicators scheduled for release.

Tuesday, July 31
8:30 a.m.: Personal income and consumer spending for June, released by the Labor Department.

9 a.m.: Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major cities in May, released by S&P/Case-Shiller.

9 a.m.: Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting on interest rates and the economy.

9:45 a.m.: Chicago PMI on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region in July, released by the Institute for Supply Management.

10 a.m.: Consumer confidence index for July, released by the Conference Board.

10 a.m.: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Chairman Richard Cordray presents the CFPB’s semi-annual report to the Senate Banking Committee.

Wednesday, Aug. 1
President Barack Obama does campaign swing through Ohio, Florida and Virginia. First of two days.

8:15 a.m.: ADP employment report for July, released by Automatic Data Processing.

9 a.m.: Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler testifies at hearing on the collapses of MF Global and Peregrine Financial Group and how customer funds can be better protected in the futures market, at the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee.

10 a.m.: ISM report on factory activity in July, released by the Institute for Supply Management.

10 a.m.: Construction spending for June, released by the Commerce Department.

1 p.m.: CFPB Chairman Cordray testifies at hearing on the impact of CFPB regulations on small businesses, at the House Small Business Committee.

2:15 p.m.: Federal Reserve announcement on interest rates and monetary policy.

2:30 p.m.: Hearing on the future of the euro zone, at the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on European Affairs.

Thursday, Aug. 2
8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, released by the Labor Department.

9 a.m.: U.S. Chamber of Commerce briefs on the state of the U.S. economy and the fiscal cliff with Chamber of Commerce’s chief economist Martin Regalia and others, at Chamber headquarters.

10 a.m.: Factory orders for June, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Hearing on parallel currencies and monetary freedom, at the House Financial Services subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology.

Friday, Aug. 3
8:30 a.m.: Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment report for July, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: ISM nonmanufacturing index on activity in the services sector in July, released by the Institute for Supply Management.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-7-28 12:00 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-28 12:38 | 显示全部楼层

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-10-23 21:24 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-28 22:43 | 显示全部楼层
Although 71% of large-cap U.S. stocks have reported earnings above the mean estimate, the blended growth rate for the index is currently at 3.3% — the lowest growth in 11 consecutive quarters, according to a FactSet analysis.

“On the whole it hasn’t been a bad season, given all the macro challenges, but some of the companies gave really weak forward guidance and they were punished [in the markets] for that,” said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International.

Some of those strains on corporate growth may be showing up in sluggish jobs growth.

In June, the United States created 80,000 jobs, the third straight month of job growth of under 100,000. Economists polled by MarketWatch are expecting a break with that trend, with payrolls expanding by 110,000 in July.

With federal spending cuts and higher taxes due to kick in next year - fiscal cliff, plus the ongoing debt crisis in Europe, analysts worry that businesses have little incentive to hire.

“There’s a great deal of uncertainty over what happens as we get into the second half of the year — there’s the ‘Europe fatigue’, anxiety about U.S. elections and the fiscal cliff,” Praveen added.

Europe vied with corporate news to sway sentiment in the latest week. Comments from policy makers including ECB President Mario Draghi on preserving the euro zone temporarily calmed fears about runaway Spanish borrowing costs, helping stocks into a late-week rally.

Consumer, Fed
Monday is light on both earnings and economic data, giving investors an extra day to digest Friday’s gross domestic product report, which underscored lingering sluggishness in consumption. The U.S. economy grew 1.5% in the second quarter. Read more on GDP.

“What was also interesting in the GDP numbers was that we clearly saw slower consumer spending but higher inventory numbers,” said Cam Albright, director of asset allocation at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors. “The shelves are being stocked, but they’re not getting emptied.”

The consumer will be in focus Tuesday as indicators on consumer spending, personal income, consumer confidence and S&P/Case-Shiller home prices are released. See economic calendar.

Housing data has become somewhat of a bright spot, according to Prudential’s Praveen, but don’t expect a big pop in the consumer numbers. “We might see some modest gains, but it’s not going to be enough to make a dent,” he said.

The Federal Open Market Committee will release a policy statement Wednesday. Analysts are mixed over whether members will agree to another round of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, to give the stalling economy a jolt. Read more on what's expected from Fed.

“I think the probability of QE3 has increased significantly because of the GDP report,” Praveen elaborated. “I suspect [the committee] will move in August; otherwise it comes too close to the elections. If they do act, they will have to do it in a big way. Doing something token is not going to be meaningful.”

Praveen noted that if the central bank does expand its easing program, it will likely choose other kinds of assets, such as mortgage-backed securities, over Treasurys, to the tune of “around $500 billion.”

But Albright of Wilmington Trust is more circumspect. “There will be debate, but you won’t see QE announced at this meeting. We might hear language coming out that they’re inching closer to that.

“There are a lot of questions over how effective a third round of easing will be,” he said. “We’ve seen declining benefits from some of the programs they’ve put in place.”

Ramp-up to jobs data
On Wednesday, investors get the first stab at jobs data, with the ADP employment report, plus a July manufacturing survey from the Institute for Supply Management.

They can also expect the release of motor-vehicle sales for July from the Big Three auto makers: Chrysler, General Motors Co. /quotes/zigman/1466682/quotes/nls/gm GM +2.93%  and Ford Motor Co. /quotes/zigman/264304/quotes/nls/f F +0.45%  All three companies posted healthy year-on-year new vehicle sales in June. Research firm J.D. Power and Associates estimates annual light-vehicle retail sales are tracking 11.5 million, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

On Thursday, weekly jobless claims and factory orders start the day, plus retailers’ reports. A barrage of July same-store sales data from retailers including Costco Wholesale Corp. , Target Corp. , Gap Inc. and Macy’s Inc. will hit investors, with analysts bracing for the worst. The sales are expected to give investors an early sense of how back-to-school sales are shaping up.

“There’s clearly hesitation in terms of how much people are willing to spend, and I don’t see that changing much over the next months,” Albright commented.

Weak consumer demand will likewise present itself as companies like Pfizer Inc.  , MasterCard Inc. , Kraft Foods Inc.   and Procter & Gamble Co.  are slated to release results next week

Of the 265 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, only 43% beat sales estimates. This marks the lowest percentage for sales beats since the first quarter of 2009, according to FactSet.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-31 16:44 | 显示全部楼层


Mario Draghi's blunt statement that the ECB will do "whatever it takes" to safeguard the euro has raised expectations before the bank's meeting in Frankfurt this week. Europe's policy elite hit the panic button last week when interest rates on Spain's 10-year bonds soared above 7.5%, triggering pledges of support for monetary union in its life-or-death struggle from Angela Merkel and François Hollande as well as Draghi, the Italian who took over as president of the ECB last year. Financial markets, which rallied strongly following Draghi's comments, now want the central bank to put words into action, and have drawn up a list of possible options for what is seen as a crunch meeting.

Option 1 Bond buying

In the past, the ECB has bought the bonds of troubled member states – such as Spain and Italy – indirectly from players in the financial markets. These so-called secondary bond purchases through the securities markets programme have ceased in recent months, but the ECB could reactivate them. There are two drawbacks to this idea: the German Bundesbank is opposed and, in the event of a debt write-down similar to that already seen in Greece, the ECB will insist that it gets its money back in full. If the ECB takes a bigger share of the market, the potential losses for private-sector investors will be higher, and that could lead them to dump their bonds.

Option 2 Hand out more cheap cash to banks

One of Draghi's first actions as ECB chief was to announce a long-term refinancing operation (LTRO). This provided cheap cash for Europe's banks for a three-year period and was designed to help them with their day-to-day funding (or liquidity) requirements. A second LTRO followed early this year and there is speculation that a third could be announced on Thursday. The hope would be that Europe's banks use the cash to buy the bonds issued by their own governments, although there is no guarantee that they would. The extra demand should push bond prices up and yields down. Draghi, judging by last week's speech, appears to believe a third LTRO is not required.

Option 3 Joint ECB/EFSF action

The ECB is unlikely to risk German wrath by buying bonds directly from governments, something the Bundesbank insists would be illegal under the central bank's constitution. But there could be joint action between the ECB and the bailout fund bankrolled by the member states of the eurozone. This is currently the European financial stability facility, but will become the European stability mechanism in September. One idea being floated is that the EFSF/ESM would buy up bonds from sovereign states and this would be reinforced by buying in the secondary markets by the ECB. The aim would be to push up the price of bonds, leading to a fall in the interest rates governments have to pay on borrowing. Lower interest rates should boost growth. Spain would be the most likely beneficiary of such a policy, but would have to subject itself to a formal bailout programme, something Madrid is unwilling to do.

Option 4 Make the bailout fund into a bank

One or two members of the ECB council have floated the notion of giving the ESM a banking licence. This sounds like a technical matter, but would have wide-ranging implications since it would make the bailout mechanism eligible for refinancing by the ECB. This would boost the power of the ESM, but is a no-no for the Germans, fearful would increase the risk of a downgrade for the AAA-rated countries putting up capital for the fund.

Option 5 Cut interest rates

The ECB cut its refinancing rate – the equivalent of the Bank of England's bank rate – to 0.75% earlier this month and could decide on a further cut on Thursday. Such a move. A further cut on Thursday looks unlikely, and would be something of a damp squib for markets that are looking for something more. The risk of disappointment is high.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-31 23:23 | 显示全部楼层

The Real Crash is dead ahead as 2008 is forgotten

“Facebook will become the poster child for the current social-media bubble,” warns economist Gary Shilling in his latest Forbes column, “just as Pets.com was for the dot-com bubble.” Yes, Wall Street is repeating the 2000 dot-com crash as today’s social-media bubble crashes and burns.

Think history folks: Remember 2000-2002? The economy suffered a 30-month recession and a brutal bear market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 11,722, then crashed, losing over 4,000 points dropping below 7,500, down more than 43%, with massive losses of more than $8 trillion in market cap.

But it gets worse: Shilling’s bluntly warning: “If we aren’t already in a recession, we’re getting very close.” Yes, he’s more reserved than Nobel economist Paul Krugman, whose latest book goes beyond hinting that the America economy is repeating the 2000-2002 recession, His title says it all: “End This Depression Now!”

But the scariest fact is that America’s warring politicians, CEOs and Super Rich can’t even see the obvious link between the 2012 social-media bubble and the 2008 Wall Street credit bubble that nearly bankrupt our monetary system and forced Congress and the Fed into bailing out our too-big-to-manage banks to an estimated $29.7 trillion in cash, credits, cheap money loans and debt relief.

But, unfortunately, the banks still haven’t learned the lessons of history. Instead, they dug in their heels, spending hundreds of million on lobbyists, fighting all reform efforts, went back to business-as-usual, sabotaging America and ultimately themselves.

Deja vu: here we are four years later. Again mired in another presidential election, right back where we were in the summer of 2008. In denial, trapped in lies and mean-spirited theatrics, ignoring warnings, blinded, obsessed about the smell of election victories no matter the cost, even if it triggers a recession.

Yes, deja vu all over again. Four short years. We forget. We’re back repeating the same buildup scenario to another meltdown.

Worse, bankers, politicians and billionaires just don’t seem to care. And you get the foreboding feeling that it really doesn’t matter who wins the election. This war will go on till 2016: For one party and their billionaire super PACs will do anything to hold on to the presidency, and the other, backed by their billionaire super PACs, will do anything to regain it.

Politics is now a deadly blood sport that reminds us of the “Hunger Games.”

As if 2008 never happened, creating the granddaddy of all bubbles

Yes, another crash is coming soon because we’re back playing the same speculative games as we did for years prior to the 2008 crash. Nothing’s changed. And when we collapse, it will be because America’s leaders never do learn the lessons of history. And never will, if you get the meaning of economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff who surveyed “800 Years of Financial Folly” and saw nothing but repetitive cycles.

In a BusinessWeek editorial, Peter Coy and Rouben Farzad described the latest cycle in this eternal drama of the bubbles:

“It’s as if 2008 never happened. Once again the worlds investors are pumping up bubbles that will probably explode in their faces. After the popping of a real estate bubble led to the first global recession since the 1930s, world markets are frothing like shaken Champagne. Pundits claim to have spotted price increases that are unsupported by economic fundamentals in assets ranging from U.S. farmland to Israeli biotech to Australian housing to Chinese cemetery sites. Commodities have soared. Global junk-bond issuance hit a record … this is the granddaddy of them all, an almost-encompassing bubble right at the heart of monetary systems.”

Yes, for the past four years our great free-market system has been blowing many new bubbles, like the Facebook bubble that we saw coming months ago. It will soon halt Chairman Bernanke’s nonstop printing press. This bubble will sink like a mafia stiletto deep into the “heart of the monetary systems” worldwide, proving something Nassim Taleb said about Bernanke when Obama reappointed him in 2009: “He doesn’t even know he doesn’t understand how things work,” that his methods make “homeopath and alternative healers look empirical and scientific.”

Warning, the Real Crash is dead ahead, will bankrupt America
That’s also what economist Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, predicted recently when interviewed on Fox Business about his new book, “The Real Crash: America’s Coming Bankruptcy.”

“We’ve got a much bigger collapse coming, and not just of the markets, but of the economy … like what you’re seeing in Europe right now, only worse … when we hit our real fiscal cliff” and a meltdown more severe than the Crash and Great Recession of 2007-2010.

Schiff was one-upped during the same NewsmaxWorld report by Robert Wiedemer, author of the 2006 “America’s Bubble Economy” and recent “Aftershock” book about the “Next Global Financial Meltdown.” He warns that “the data is clear, 50% unemployment, a 90% stock market drop, and 100% annual inflation,” starting this year.

Yes, it sounds like overkill to drive home the message, but maybe not. Maybe this is déjà vu 1929. Maybe the Real Crash is dead ahead. And maybe nobody wants to see it, like 2008.

Big secret, buy banks? Yes, if Wall Street doubles down, splits up
That signal comes from no less than former Citigroup president Sandy Weill. Imagine, the man responsible for building the first too-big-to-manage mega-bank, and killing the 60-year-old Glass-Steagall separating commercial and investment banking back in 1999, now saying:

“I think what we should probably do is go and split up investment banking from banking. Have banks be deposit takers, make commercial loans and real estate loans. And have banks do something that’s not going to risk the taxpayer dollars, that’s not going to be too big to fail.” What a game-changer.

Huffington Post columnist Mark Gongloff notes that Weill is “not doing it out of the goodness of his heart.” But the truth is banks haven’t been doing well since 2008, in spite of controlling politicians and regulators: “The banks themselves, including the abomination he created, Citigroup, would be worth a lot more if they were broken into smaller pieces.”

Since 2008 “the market has turned against the big banks,” investors have been “doing the government’s dirty work for it.”

De facto Glass-Steagall? Yes, split and get richer on two bank stocks
Weill must also sense that with all the relentless political fears about the government’s out-of-control debt, plus the real possibility that the American economy could in fact go over a Fiscal Cliff in 2013 and into a long recession, or even a depression, the appetite for another taxpayer bailout will be zero, forcing a bank breakup anyway.

So Weill’s brainstorm makes a helluva lot of sense: Take command. Get ahead of the coming slowdown. Shilling warns the social-media bubble will keep deflating.

Forget them, seize this opportunity. Refocus on new bank stocks. Besides, if insiders control a split-up into a commercial bank and an investment bank, it’d be on terms more favorable to bank insiders, executives and shareholders than if Washington did it.

And you can bet the smart money’s on Weill’s strategy. For example, The Wall Street Journal quotes Phillip Purcell, former CEO of Morgan Stanley: “From a shareholder point of view, it’s crystal clear these enterprises are worth more broken up than together.”

Yes, deniers are claiming it’ll never happen, especially Jamie Dimon, who publicly doubled down on loving his too-big-to-manage $2.3 trillion bank. But Gongloff and the Journal note that Dimon’s reshuffled organizational chart suggests otherwise.

Moreover, you know bank CEOs like Lloyd Blankfein are motivated more by their own personal wealth than by firm assets under management. Ultimately, if they can make more money and get more control of their destiny by owning two bank stocks, you can bet they’ll plan a de facto Glass-Steagall revival in a New York minute. They can make more … and so can America’s 95 million Main Street investors like you.

Bottom line: if you are a risk-taker, maybe you can beat the market to the punch, before The Real Crash overwhelms Wall Street, like it did in 1929 and in 2000 and in 2008. Because next time, even though our too-big-to-manage banks expect they’ll get bailed out, the reality is that they’ll go begging for bail-out billions and Congress won’t do it again, without forcing a newer, tougher Glass-Steagall law on the banks.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-1 16:08 | 显示全部楼层

September shapes up as crunch time for currency crisis

BRUSSELS — Over the past couple of years, Europe has muddled through a long series of crunch moments in its debt crisis, but this September is shaping up as a “make-or-break” month as policy-makers run desperately short of options to save the common currency.

Crisis or no crisis, many European policy-makers will take their summer holidays in August. When they return, a number of crucial events, decisions and deadlines will be waiting.

“September will undoubtedly be the crunch time,” one senior eurozone policy-maker said.

In that month September, a German court makes a ruling that could neuter the new eurozone rescue fund, the anti-bailout Dutch vote in elections just as Greece tries to renegotiate its financial lifeline, and decisions need to be made on whether taxpayers suffer huge losses on state loans to Athens.

On top of that, the eurozone has to figure out how to help its next wobbling dominoes, Spain and Italy — or what do if one or both were to topple.

“In nearly 20 years of dealing with EU issues, I’ve never known a state of affairs like we are in now,” one eurozone diplomat said this week. “It really is a very, very difficult fix and it’s far from certain that we’ll be able to find the right way out of it.”

Since the crisis erupted in January 2010, the eurozone has had to rescue relative minnows in Greece, Ireland and Portugal as they lost the ability to fund their budget deficits and debt obligations by borrowing commercially at affordable rates.

Now two much larger economies are in the firing line and policy-makers must consider ever more radical solutions.

If Spain, the eurozone’s fourth biggest economy and the world’s 12th, loses affordable market financing the next domino at risk of falling is Italy — the eurozone’s third biggest economy and a member of the G7 group of big wealthy nations.

A bailout of Spain would probably be double those of Greece, Ireland and Portugal combined, while Italy’s economy is twice as large as Spain’s again.

The European Union has already agreed to lend up to 100 billion euros to rescue Spanish banks. One eurozone official said Madrid has now conceded that it might need a full bailout worth 300 billion euros from the EU and IMF if its borrowing costs remain unaffordable.

The eurozone does not seem to have enough cash in the current setup to deal with a scenario of Spain and Italy needing a rescue, and a sense of doom is growing among some policy-makers. Fighting the crisis, said the eurozone diplomat, is like trying to keep a life raft above water.

“For two years we’ve been pumping up the life raft, taking decisions that fill it with just enough air to keep it afloat even though it has a leak,” the diplomat said. “But now the leak has got so big that we can’t pump air into the raft quickly enough to keep it afloat.”

Compounding the problems, Greece is far behind with reforms to improve its finances and economy so it may need more time, more money and a debt reduction from eurozone governments.

If Greek debt cannot be made sustainable, the country may have to leave the eurozone, sending a shock wave across financial markets and the European economy.

Sept. 12 is a crucial date in the European diary. On that day the German Constitutional Court is scheduled to rule on whether a treaty establishing the eurozone’s permanent bailout fund, the 500 billion euro European Stability Mechanism (ESM), is compatible with the German constitution.

A positive ruling is vital, because Germany is the biggest funder of the ESM, and the eurozone would be powerless to protect Spain or Italy without the ESM.

On the same day, parliamentary elections are held in the Netherlands where popular opposition to spending any more money on bailing out spendthrift eurozone governments is strong. The Dutch vote may complicate talks on a revised second bailout for Greece, which also has to be agreed in September.

Athens wants two more years than originally planned to cut its budget deficit to below three per cent of GDP, so as not to impose yet more spending cuts on a country which is already in a depression.

This would mean Greece’s 130 billion euro second bailout package may need to be increased by 20 billion to 50 billion euros, according to estimates by some eurozone officials and economists, and there is no appetite in the eurozone to give Greece yet more extra money.

More importantly Greece needs to bring its debt, which is equal to 160 per cent of its annual economic output, under control. This means eurozone governments, which own roughly two thirds of it, may need to write part of it off.

Private creditors have already suffered a huge writedown in the value of their Greek debt holdings but so far eurozone taxpayers have not lost a cent on any of the bailouts.

Policy-makers are working on “last chance” options to bring Greece’s debts down and keep it in the eurozone, with the ECB and national central banks looking at also taking significant losses on the value of their bond holdings, officials said.

If governments swallowed the bitter pill by also accepting a cut in the value of their contributions to loans already made to Greece, this would break a taboo and could provoke demands for similar treatment from Ireland or Portugal.

Peter Vanden Houte, chief economist at ING bank, said euro governments might be forced to accept a halving of the value of their Greek debt — known in the business as haircut.

“If Greece is to be saved, we must see some debt forgiveness from eurozone governments in the coming years because otherwise Greece is never going to come out of the situation it is in now,” he said. “We are talking about potentially a 50 per cent haircut, which would still mean the Greek debt would be [proportionately] around the eurozone average.”

The eurozone would want concessions from Athens. “Most probably in exchange, eurozone partners will be more strict on Greek compliance with structural reforms and may ask Greece to give up some sovereignty,” said Vanden Houte.

While no official discussions are underway on another Greek debt restructuring, eurozone officials say privately it may be necessary if Greece is to have a fighting chance.

“The Greeks might say they are in such a mess that to survive they we need to ease up the austerity a bit, and to still regain debt sustainability they will have to default on 30-40 per cent of the loans,” one eurozone official said.

“There would be a lot of people saying this is understandable, so maybe this makes sense and maybe we could have a reasonable discussion among the member states on how Greece can move forward,” the official said.

The official speculated that eurozone debt forgiveness for Greece could be made dependent on progress in structural reforms or that it could be reviewed once Athens has to start paying back the capital of the loans in 10 years.

“Maybe we could agree to give debt relief of, say, 25 per cent to make possible some changes in the program. Then we implement that for six months or a year and maybe we find out that we need to give them another 25 per cent and at the end of the day we might get to a stable situation,” the official said.

The situation will become clearer once international lenders produce a new debt sustainability analysis for Greece at the end of August.

Preventing Spain and Italy from losing debt market access may require the crossing of another red line — European Central Bank help in keeping down governments’ borrowing costs.

ECB President Mario Draghi signalled last Thursday the bank was ready to act, indicating it may revive its program of buying bonds of troubled governments on the secondary market.

“Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough,” Draghi said. “To the extent that the size of the sovereign premia [borrowing costs] hamper the functioning of the monetary policy transmission channels, they come within our mandate.”

However, Germany has always been hostile to the idea and the Bundesbank said on Friday that it continued to view it “in a critical fashion”.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble dismissed suggestions Spain will ask the bailout fund to try to lower its borrowing costs by purchasing its bonds.

Spain faces high borrowing costs because investors fear they will not get their money back. The Spanish economy is shrinking, many of its autonomous regions need bailouts from Madrid and banks need the recapitalization of up to 100 billion euros.

Madrid still has to raise about 50 billion euros on the market by the end of the year. This may be impossible if its funding costs stay well above seven per cent for 10-year bonds.

Draghi’s remarks knocked yields down by more than 40 basis points to below seven per cent on Thursday, but they could quickly climb back if the market does not see firm ECB buying soon.

The ECB also seems to be softening its stance on another taboo — giving the ESM a banking licence so the fund can borrow from the ECB against eurozone government bonds.

If Spain or Italy applied for eurozone help in bringing down their borrowing costs, the temporary European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) bailout fund or the ESM could help.

But with their combined firepower, under current agreements, of 459.5 billion euros until July 2013 and at 500 billion from July 2014, the funds do not have enough to impress markets.

If the ESM could refinance itself at the ECB, however, it would have virtually unlimited firepower for bond market intervention without causing inflationary pressure.

Discussions on the banking licence for the ESM have been going on in the background for many months, officials said, with France openly calling for such a solution, but Germany, Finland and the Netherlands strongly against.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-8-1 18:05 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-1 20:50 | 显示全部楼层
A proposal for a banking union in the euro zone will be made in early September, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said on Thursday 26July.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-2 21:43 | 显示全部楼层

82008-9-16一年期贷款基准利率下调0.27个百分点9月17日 跌2.90%
72007-12-20一年期存款基准利率上0.27个百分点;12月21日 涨1.15%
62007-9-15一年期存款基准利率上调0.27个百分点;9月17日 涨2.06%
52007-8-22一年期存款基准利率上调0.27个百分点;8月23日 涨1.49%
42007-7-20上调金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率0.27个百分点7月23日 涨3.81%
32007-5-19一年期存款基准利率上调0.27个百分点;5月21日 涨1.04%
22007-3-18上调金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率0.27%3月19日 涨2.87%
12006-8-19一年期存、贷款基准利率均上调0.27%8月21日 涨0.20%


[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-8-2 22:17 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-2 23:13 | 显示全部楼层

Eurozone debt crisis: the key charts you need to understand what's happening


Mario Draghi, President of the ECB,
Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB,
Frankfurt am Main, 2 August 2012http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2012/html/index.en.html

Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the Commission Vice-President, Mr Rehn.

Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged, following the decrease of 25 basis points in July. As we said a month ago, inflation should decline further in the course of 2012 and be below 2% again in 2013. Consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area economy continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. At the same time, economic growth in the euro area remains weak, with the ongoing tensions in financial markets and heightened uncertainty weighing on confidence and sentiment. A further intensification of financial market tensions has the potential to affect the balance of risks for both growth and inflation on the downside.

The Governing Council extensively discussed the policy options to address the severe malfunctioning in the price formation process in the bond markets of euro area countries. Exceptionally high risk premia are observed in government bond prices in several countries and financial fragmentation hinders the effective working of monetary policy. Risk premia that are related to fears of the reversibility of the euro are unacceptable, and they need to be addressed in a fundamental manner. The euro is irreversible.

In order to create the fundamental conditions for such risk premia to disappear, policy-makers in the euro area need to push ahead with fiscal consolidation, structural reform and European institution-building with great determination. As implementation takes time and financial markets often only adjust once success becomes clearly visible, governments must stand ready to activate the EFSF/ESM in the bond market when exceptional financial market circumstances and risks to financial stability exist – with strict and effective conditionality in line with the established guidelines.

The adherence of governments to their commitments and the fulfilment by the EFSF/ESM of their role are necessary conditions. The Governing Council, within its mandate to maintain price stability over the medium term and in observance of its independence in determining monetary policy, may undertake outright open market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective. In this context, the concerns of private investors about seniority will be addressed. Furthermore, the Governing Council may consider undertaking further non-standard monetary policy measures according to what is required to repair monetary policy transmission. Over the coming weeks, we will design the appropriate modalities for such policy measures.

Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. On a quarterly basis, euro area real GDP growth was flat in the first quarter of 2012, following a decline of 0.3% in the previous quarter. Economic indicators point to weak economic activity in the second quarter of 2012 and at the beginning of the third quarter, in an environment of heightened uncertainty. Looking beyond the short term, we expect the euro area economy to recover only very gradually, with growth momentum being further dampened by a number of factors. In particular, tensions in some euro area sovereign debt markets and their impact on financing conditions, the process of balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors and high unemployment are expected to weigh on the underlying growth momentum, which is also affected by the ongoing global slowdown.

The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. They relate, in particular, to the tensions in several euro area financial markets and their potential spillover to the euro area real economy. Downside risks also relate to possible renewed increases in energy prices over the medium term.

Euro area annual HICP inflation was 2.4% in July 2012, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, unchanged from the previous month. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, inflation rates should decline further in the course of 2012 and be below 2% again in 2013. Over the policy‑relevant horizon, in an environment of modest growth in the euro area and well‑anchored long-term inflation expectations, underlying price pressures should remain moderate.

Risks to the outlook for price developments continue to be broadly balanced over the medium term. Upside risks pertain to further increases in indirect taxes, owing to the need for fiscal consolidation, and higher than expected energy prices over the medium term. The main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than expected growth in the euro area, in particular resulting from a further intensification of financial market tensions. Such intensification has the potential to affect the balance of risks on the downside.

Turning to the monetary analysis, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remained subdued. The annual growth rate of M3 stood at 3.2% in June 2012, slightly higher than the 3.1% observed in the previous month and close to the rate observed at the end of the first quarter. Overall, inflows into broad money in the second quarter were weak. Annual growth in M1 increased further to 3.5% in June, in line with the increased preference of investors for liquid instruments in an environment of low interest rates and high uncertainty.

The annual growth rate of loans to the private sector (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) declined to 0.3% in June (from 0.5% in May). As net redemptions of loans to non-financial corporations and households (both adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) were observed in June, the annual growth rates for loans to both non‑financial corporations and households (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) decreased further in June, to -0.3% and 1.1% respectively. To a large extent, subdued loan growth reflects the current cyclical situation, heightened risk aversion and the ongoing adjustment in the balance sheets of households and enterprises, all of which weigh on credit demand. A considerable contribution of demand factors to weak MFI loan growth is confirmed by the euro area bank lending survey for the second quarter of 2012. This survey also shows that the net tightening of banks’ credit standards at the euro area level was broadly stable in the second quarter of 2012, as compared with the previous quarter, for loans to both enterprises and households.

Looking ahead, it is essential for banks to continue to strengthen their resilience where this is needed. The soundness of banks’ balance sheets will be a key factor in facilitating both an appropriate provision of credit to the economy and the normalisation of all funding channels.
To sum up, the economic analysis indicates that price developments should remain in line with price stability over the medium term. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms this picture.

While significant progress has been achieved with fiscal consolidation over recent years, further decisive and urgent steps need to be taken to improve competitiveness. From 2009 to 2011, euro area countries, on average, reduced the deficit-to-GDP ratio by 2.3 percentage points, and the primary deficit improved by about 2½ percentage points. Fiscal adjustment in the euro area is continuing in 2012, and it is indeed crucial that efforts are maintained to restore sound fiscal positions. At the same time, structural reforms are as essential as fiscal consolidation efforts and the measures to repair the financial sector. Some progress has also been made in this area. For example, unit labour costs and current account developments have started to undergo a correction process in most of the countries strongly affected by the crisis. However, further reform measures need to be implemented swiftly and decisively. Product market reforms to foster competitiveness and the creation of efficient and flexible labour markets are preconditions for the unwinding of existing imbalances and the achievement of robust, sustainable growth. It is now crucial that Member States implement their country-specific recommendations with determination.

We are now at your disposal for questions.

Nick Kounis, head of macro research at ABN Amro.

ECB President Mario Draghi announced that central bank bond purchases to bring down peripheral government bond yields are strictly conditional on governments moving first to activate bond buys by the EFSF/ESM, which itself would require governments to commit to the necessary fiscal and structural policies. In addition, many of the details of what the ECB would actually do have still be worked out by committees.
This message has disappointed financial markets following the euphoria after Mr Draghi’s London speech because it signals that it will take some time for the ECB’s action to materialise. In effect the fastest institution in the eurozone has tied itself to one of the slowest. On the positive side, when action finally does come through, it looks likely to be more sizeable than past bond buys by the SMP. Indeed, an ECB/EFSF double act could eventually have a more significant impact on bond markets than the actions of the ECB in the context of the SMP in the past.
Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays:
We interpret this as a clear sign that the ECB is prepared to change policy significantly at its September meeting, in terms of purchasing debt without claiming seniority subject to the EFSF being deployed to buy government debt. Overall this is in line with our expectation; it still will depend on whether Spain and Italy (which have a summit now proceeding) will call upon the EFSF to do this.

Marc Ostwald of Monument Securities:
The council is clearly not in agreement on what can or will be deployed ("modalities to be discussed/decided"), and there are clearly a number of council members who are making further ECB action contingent on govts delivering on their side of the equation ("first of all governments need to go to the EFSF; the ECB cannot replace governments) and therefore whatever the ECB does will not be QE.
Mario Draghi notes that the yields on certain government bonds (which he refers to as risk premia) have reached exceptionally high levels.
In order to create the fundamental conditions for such risk premia to disappear, policymakers in the euro area need to push ahead with fiscal consolidation, structural reform and European institution-building with great determination.
As implementation takes time and financial markets often only adjust once success becomes clearly visible, governments must stand ready to activate the EFSF/ESM [bailout funds] in the bond market when exceptional financial market circumstances and risks to financial stability exist – with strict and effective conditionality in line with the established guidelines.
He says governments must adhere to their commitments as a necessary condition of receiving help. Once all those conditions are met...
The Governing Council may undertake outright open market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective.
Draghi highlighted the word "may" during the press conference. This was not a decision, he said, but rather a framework in which to act.
Crucially, Draghi suggested the bailout funds would not necessarily push other creditors down the pecking order if it buys bonds in order to help keep borrowing costs down.
In this context, the concerns of private investors about seniority will be addressed.
Draghi says monetary policy will not be enough unless there is action by the governments.
Action by governments is as essential as appropriate action on our sides. That is the reason for having conditionality.
He is emphatic about the fact the euro is "irreversible".
It is pointless to bet against the euro. The euro will stay. It is irreversible.
Draghi reiterates that Italy and Spain have to request bailouts (with conditionality) to get EFSF/ESM and ECB assistance.

Draghi has essentially admitted the governor of the Bundesbank voted against the bond-buying programme.
This framework was endorsed by all the governing council members with one exception.
He said there is "no need to be specific" as to other non-standard measures the ECB may take.

Draghi says there wasn't anything specific that pushed the bank to discuss these so-called 'non-standard measures'.
There was just a sense of worsening of the crisis, and worsening of the consequences of fragmentation in the euro area. One thing was the sudden increase in the shorter part of the yield curve [i.e. yields going up on shorter-dated bonds] in several countries in the eurozone.
Draghi is surprised by the attention focused on the banking licence for the bailout funds.
It is not up to us to grant the ESM a banking licence, it is up to governments.
The current design of the bailout fund does not allow for it, he says.

Draghi says -This guidance we have given is different from the previous bond-buying programme. Governments must meet their commitments to fiscal reform to benefit from the programme. Draghi adds that the programme will focus on shorter-dated government bonds.
It is an effort which is very different from the previous [bond-buying programme]. It falls squarely within our mandate, and among the instruments of monetary policy.
The ECB will work out the details of the bond buying programme "over the coming weeks".
Says it will undertake open market operations in a size "adquate to meet its objectives".

Draghi says - We have discussed possible reductions in interest rates but the governing council "in its entirety" decided this was not the right time.
With regards to negative interest rates (in safe-haven countries), he says these are "uncharted waters".

So the key points are that the bailout funds will intervene in the bond markets, and they will address the issue of seniority. This means that other bondholders will not necessarily be pushed down the pecking order by the ECB or the bailout funds buying bonds

Draghi adds: "Concerns of private investors about [ECB] seniority will be addressed."
He expects growth in the euro area to be dampened by tensions in euro area sovereign debt markets. High unemployment will also weigh on growth, which is also affected by the global growth slowdown.

The ECB governing council discussed policy options, with regards to the bond markets, extensively. Exceptionally high risk premia have been observed in government bond prices in several countries. That hinders monetary policy, he says.
These bond yields are “unacceptable”. He repeats the fact that the euro is irreversible.

ECB says bailout funds could intervene in bond marketsGovernments must stand ready to activate the bailout funds in the bond markets – says Draghi, "with strict and effective conditionality".
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-4 22:44 | 显示全部楼层



  对此,南华期货宏观总监张一伟向 《每日经济新闻》记者表示,“9月份欧央行实施新政的可能性很大,估计是采取一些组合行为,比如隔夜存款利率有可能降为负,逼迫银行把资金贷出去,还有就是资产购买计划。至于是否会授予ESM银行牌照,关键还是看德国。欧元对美元方面,则会处于低位震荡,要突破1.2一线还比较困难。”














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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-5 23:41 | 显示全部楼层

史上最高溢价率 申万进取杠杆已高达5.2倍






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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-6 00:08 | 显示全部楼层
Investors will come into next week with some wind at their backs following upbeat July jobs data and renewed hopes about efforts to aid Europe’s debt-troubled nations.

On Friday, the U.S. Labor Department said the economy created 163,000 nonfarm jobs in July, which exceeded expectations. The nation’s unemployment rate edged up to 8.3%. Read more about the latest jobs data.

Those jobs numbers were one of the main reasons for Friday’s strong market performance.

The Dow and the S&P 500 both gained for the fourth straight week, and the Nasdaq also edged higher for the five days. The Dow’s weekly win streak was its longest of the year. Read more on U.S. stocks.

Whether the momentum from Friday’s gains continues will also be contingent on the market finding something to get behind in what is expected to be a largely quiet week for U.S. economic data.

“The interesting thing about the week after the job numbers is you often don’t have much in the way of economic data,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. “The caveat is that every day in Europe is something new.”

With regards to Europe, anything regarding whether Spain will seek a bailout of its debt situation is expected to garner a lot of attention. As of Friday, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said he had made no decision on whether to seek help from Europe’s rescue fund.

Markets continue to remain on edge regarding the European debt crisis. On Friday, gains in U.S. stocks, European stocks and the euro /quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled EURUSD 0.0000%  were bolstered by a reassessment of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s comments Thursday. Some investors decided, on a second read, that the initially disappointing talk contained enough details on potential bond purchases to relieve the region’s worst financial strains.

“The bank was under serious pressure to reveal strong policy measures or risk sparking major disappointment in the markets,” IHS Global Insight U.S. economists Paul Edelstein and Nigel Gault wrote in a research note. “Draghi indicated that the ECB will buy euro-zone bonds, but this will be dependent on the stressed countries going to the euro-zone stability funds first with the conditionality that this involves.”

At least initially, there’s also likely to be some reassessment of Friday’s jobs report.

David Rolfe, chief investment officer of Wedgewood Partners and manager of the RiverPark/Wedgewood Fund /quotes/zigman/4496905 RWGFX +2.02% , said that with August under way, and going into a typically low-key season for many businesses, the jobs data will have even more impact than usual.

“They’re going to take their clue, or tune, from the employment report,” Rolfe added. “So many people are focused on it. The correlation between jobless claims and the stock market is pretty tight, so that is going to set the mood into early next week.”

Disney, News Corp., Man United
Earnings season has largely wound down, with most S&P 500 companies already out with their second-quarter results. Earnings have met previously lowered bars set by analysts; nearly 68% have reported earnings above expectations, but only 41% have topped sales forecasts.

Among the larger-cap stocks, Walt Disney Co. /quotes/zigman/245568/quotes/nls/dis DIS +1.61%  is expected to report quarterly results on Tuesday, while Macy’s Inc. /quotes/zigman/467976/quotes/nls/m M +2.36%  and News Corp. /quotes/zigman/94823/quotes/nls/nws NWS +1.29%  are scheduled to deliver their most-recent quarterly results on Wednesday. (News Corp. is the owner of Dow Jones and MarketWatch, the publisher of this report.)

Retailers Nordstrom Inc. /quotes/zigman/235890/quotes/nls/jwn JWN +1.95%  and Kohl’s Corp. /quotes/zigman/231595/quotes/nls/kss KSS +1.93%  are on tap for Thursday, and J.C. Penney Co. /quotes/zigman/237947/quotes/nls/jcp JCP +2.15%  gets into the quarterly reporting game on Friday.

Tech companies set to deliver their most-recent earnings reports include Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. /quotes/zigman/70561/quotes/nls/ctsh CTSH +2.81% , Leap Wireless International Inc. /quotes/zigman/94240/quotes/nls/leap LEAP -1.88%  and Youku Inc. /quotes/zigman/2786183/quotes/nls/yoku YOKU +4.20%  on Monday, Priceline.com Inc. /quotes/zigman/90481/quotes/nls/pcln PCLN +2.31%  on Tuesday and Nvidia Corp. /quotes/zigman/80597/quotes/nls/nvda NVDA +2.08%  on Thursday.

Also, British soccer club Manchester United is expected to price its initial public offering under the ticker “MANU” and start trading Friday on the New York Stock Exchange. Read more on Manchester United IPO.

Econ lite
Among the economic data due out during the week of Aug. 6 will be the nation’s second-quarter productivity level, set for Wednesday. A drop of 0.9% has been forecasts by industry analysts. See economic calendar.

Weekly first-time jobless claims for the week of Aug. 4 are scheduled for Thursday, with a forecast of 365,000 claims. The U.S. trade deficit for June is also planned for release on Thursday, with the deficit forecast to grow to $48.7 billion from $47 billion.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also has two minor speeches scheduled for the week, on Monday and Tuesday.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-7 23:38 | 显示全部楼层

Eurogroup's Juncker says Greek exit 'manageable'

The 17-nation euro zone could manage a Greek exit from the shared currency, but it's not a favored option, Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, told German television on Tuesday, according to reports. A Greek exit would be "a manageable process. However, that doesn't mean it's a desirable path," Juncker said in the transcript of an interview with broadcaster WDR.

The U.S. economy is “only treading water” and the U.S. central bank needs to launch another sizeable and open-ended asset purchase program to spur demand, a Federal Reserve official said Tuesday.

“The GDP reports have been disappointing [and] my expectation is the second half of the year won’t be much better,” Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in an sit-down with CNBC that followed an interview overnight with the Wall Street Journal.

“If you are treading water, even if you are a good swimmer, at some point you need to get to land,” Rosengren said.

Rosengren, who is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, had said he was open to more easing earlier this summer. Read about Rosengren and others on the Fed who were moving closer to QE3 last month.

But his call for “a much more accommodative policy” show his worries about the recovery have grown.

And Rosengren’s comments about the specifics of another bond purchase plan also show an important shift in thinking by some at the Fed that the key to an effective third round of QE would be to make it open-ended.

The first two rounds of QE ended on specific dates.

Many economists have argued that the Fed would need some new twist to convince markets that “this time would be different.”

It is unclear if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the majority of Fed officials share Rosengren’s views.

The Fed surprised analysts by holding policy steady at its last meeting on July 31-Aug. 1 even though it downgraded its view of the outlook. The Fed said it was “closely monitoring” the incoming data.

There is a hawkish wing of Fed regional bank presidents who are not expected to back more QE.

In a separate interview with Reuters, one of the hawks, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, said that new steps to stimulate the economy so close to a presidential election would be a mistake.

Rosengren said the Fed had been holding off from another round of quantitative easing because it expected the economy would pick up.

He argued that the Fed should set out to buy a specific dollar amount of mortgage-backed securities per month, but not set an end date until there was a clear improvement in the economy.

“My hope would be that the policy would be substantial enough that we actually wouldn’t have to carry it on for that long and that we would start to see real improvements in the economy,” Rosengren said.

The size of the monthly purchases must be “substantial enough” to offset drags from the European sovereign debt crisis.

He said the monthly purchases should be roughly the same magnitude as the first two rounds of bond purchases.

More QE would boost asset prices and could help the housing market that already has “some legs,” he said.

In the Wall Street Journal interview, Rosengren also said he would support trimming the 0.25% rate that banks receive for parking excess cash at the central bank. Read earlier story on rate banks get for parking cash at Fed.

His views on the interest rate on excess reserves are important because Rosengren is an expert on money markets. Many economists have argued against cutting the interest rate on excess reserves because it would hurt short-term lending markets.

Rosengren said a gradual reduction in the 0.25% interest rate was appropriate in light of these concerns.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-8 22:23 | 显示全部楼层
8/7   7     500
8/2   7     500
7/31  7     80
7/26  7     500
7/24  7     950
7/19  7     800
7/17  7     200
7/12  7     100
7/10  7     500
7/5   7     50
7/5   14    400
7/3   7     380
7/3   14    1050
6/28  14    300
6/26  14    950

外汇储备 -
新增贷款 -
城市固定资产投资 -- 9日
工业增加值 - 9日
社会消费品零售总额 - 9日?
MNI中国消费者信心指数 -13日?
消费者信心指数 - 28日? 2012年第二季度中国大陆消费者信心总指数为87.2,比2011年第二季度下降5.3,与2012年第一季度相比也有3.3的降幅。
海关进出口 - 10日?
外商直接投资 -15日?

3汇丰中国制造业采购经理人指数(HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) 每月第一个工作日(通常先于CFLP的PMI)汇丰银行http://www.hsbc.com/1/2/emerging-markets/em-index/purchasing-managers-index
5海关进出口数据11:00次月10日公布月度初步汇总数据         次月21-24(通常21日)日公布月度咨询数据中国海关总署http://www.customs.gov.cn/publish/portal0/tab400/
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-9 22:39 | 显示全部楼层
In what would appear to be yet another stalling tactic, Greece’s troika of international creditors – the EU, ECB and IMF – have signalled that Athens may have to wait longer for the disbursement of further aid. Discussions over the release of euro 31.5 bn in rescue loans – delayed in the hullabaloo that followed two successive elections – will not take place until October when troika officials will present a long-awaited report on the country’s fiscal progress to Eurogroup finance ministers. With cash reserves almost completely dried up, the new postponement will mean that Greece will lurch from week to week trying to stave off default and an uncontrolled bankruptcy. It had been hoped the installment would be received in September, said officials in Athens governing coalition. Instead, Dow Jones which first reported the story, says visiting troika inspectors due to return to Athens in early September will likely spend the entire month preparing the review in time for the Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg on October 8th.

"It’s seems the story is true and release of the report and the disbursement are going to be delayed,” a well-placed insider in one of the three parties backing the fragile coalition told me this morning. “The question is why are they doing this? It’s going to make things very difficult. Coffers are almost empty. Obviously they want to pile on the pressure to ensure that the euro 11.5 in spending cuts are applied.”

The new round of cutbacks – a condition of further assistance – are the focus of ongoing negotiations that in a climate of deepening recession and popular despair have proved to be far from easy. Although finance ministry sources this morning vigorously denied the delay – “we categorically reject the suggestion that the next tranche will be postponed beyond September” said one – other officials confirmed that the announcement of the EU-IMF-mandated austerity package may also be postponed until next month. Speaking to local media, the deputy finance minister Christos Staikouras said the spending cuts would have to be “finalised” by September 14 when eurozone finance ministers meet in Cyprus, the current holder of the EU presidency.

As we've been reporting for some time now, Greece still needs to find at least euro 4bn worth of cuts in the euro11.5 bn package, as ministries squabble over measures that are likely to be deeply controversial.

Greece must repay a euro 3.2bn maturing bond to the ECB on August 20 making the credit crunch even more risky. But there is growing speculation that the ECB is already tearing up its own rule book and printing money to tide the country through the crisis over the next few months.

Athens’ conservative-led coalition has clearly been thrown off guard by reports of further delays in the release of rescue loans from international creditors. Addressing the issue, the deputy finance minister Christos Staikouras told Greek TV that as far as he was aware inspectors from the country’s “troika” of creditors would return to the capital in early September and complete their assessment of the Greek economy by the middle of the month. “If that happens and the process is completed by September 14 – this is the framework we’re working with, that’s what we’ve agreed to – then obviously the tranche, if the review is positive as we expect it to be, will come immediately after,” he said.

the fact that “a few days later on September 14 the Eurogroup group [of finance ministers representing the 17-nation bloc] will convene to assess the troika’s review of Greece.” There is widespread speculation that Greece’s fragile coalition may also still be deliberating over spending cuts worth euro11.5 then – on which further rescue loans depend

European Central Bank policy maker Christian Noyer has ruled out Greece leaving the euro, in some comments that hit the wires a few minutes ago.

Speaking to France's Le Point magazine, Noyer also claimed that the ECB was very close to making an important new intervention. That would drive down borrowing costs for the eurozone's weaker members.

Noyer told Le Point:

Don't have any doubt about the determination of the governing council and its capacity to act within the terms of its mandate.

Our operations will be of sufficient size to have a strong impact on the markets. We should be ready to intervene very soon, prioritizing short-term debt markets.

Noyer added that a Grexit was "not something which we envisage":

There is no plan to prepare for the exit of any country from the euro zone.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-8-9 23:06 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-11 11:51 | 显示全部楼层
Greece has confirmed it plans a euro 3.125bn T-bill auction next week, on 14 August. The funds - assuming all goes well - will go towards repaying a euro 3.2bn bond maturing on 20 August. The bond is held by the European Central Bank.


The country is shut out of normal bond markets, and the bulk of the T-bills are usually bought by Greek banks, which they then use as collateral to tap the central bank's emergency liquidity assistance.

Fitch warns of further Spanish bailout
Fitch, the credit ratings agency, has cast doubt on whether the memorandum of understanding between Spain and eurozone governments to bail out hispanic banks will be the last we hear of the issue. The euro 100bn loan to recapitalise lenders was signed off last month but Fitch believes the "far-reaching" reforms attached to the deal might not be the last. Losses could be imposed on senior debt holders and retail investors could launch lawsuits, Fitch says.

One day after China reported declining momentum in car sales and factory output, it said exports in July rose 1% compared with the same month last year. The forecasts were for a rise of 5% so that’s quite the shortfall. Import growth was 4.7% - also missing forecasts - down from 6.3% in June. The trade surplus with the European Union - China’s biggest trading partner - also reflected sluggish demand as it narrowed by 40% to $10.8bn (£6.9bn). New loans are also at a ten-month low.

In a note this morning on the Chinese data, Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says that a slew of bad news this week has, paradoxically, lifted the markets. But only because they believe bazookas are being levelled at them by central bankers. Hewson says:

This week looks like another positive week for equity markets in spite of some pretty dire economic data from pretty much all over the world. Fears of a hard landing in China, poor German and Italian industrial production data and awful UK trade data are nothing to write home about, and yet markets have simply shrugged them off and maintained their resilient tone. The reasons are fairly simple and largely to do as a result of how poor the data actually is. The expectation is that the worse the data, the more likely it will be that central banks in China, the UK and the European Central Bank will step in to support asset prices, by easing monetary policy further.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-11 11:57 | 显示全部楼层








  无奈之下,人们不得不反思一个现实,即中国经济可能很难重现2008年单纯靠投资拉动下的 “U”形反弹,取而代之的是“L”形温和且缓慢的复苏。对此,东吴证券(601555,股吧)宏观分析师强琪菁向《每日经济新闻》表示,中国经济要环比明显改善,起码要等到三季度末。






  长江证券(000783,股吧)宏观组相关人士告诉 《每日经济新闻》记者,目前看来,降准概率大于降息概率,因为外汇占款的流失需要降准去补,否则央行就只能持续逆回购




[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-8-11 12:05 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-11 22:07 | 显示全部楼层
The summer has been a restful one for U.S. stocks. They’ve turned in a slight gain for the fifth week in a row, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index up almost 1% to 2% for the week. Over the past 30 days that’s added up with the indexes gaining 4.4%, 4.8% and 4.1%, respectively.

Also, the lack of any Sturm und Drang this August has had a calming effect on market volatility and volume. Remember last year’s budget-deficit battle and S&P’s U.S. triple-A downgrade? The CBOE Market Volatility Index , or so-called “fear index,” has fallen 21% over the past 30 days, or 66% from a year ago, and average August daily stock trading volumes are down 40% from a year ago, according to Barclays.

With no economic data planned for Monday, Tuesday kicks the week off with the release of July retail-sales numbers, which will be watched closely as an indicator of economic health.

Expect some disappointment there, said Scott Armiger, manager of the $500 million Christiana Trust at Wilmington Savings Fund Society. Reported jobs growth is doing little to support back-to-school shopping, especially with higher gasoline prices cutting into the consumer, who has seen few income gains this year.

“With back-to-school shopping people are dialing it back, and we want to see if that is what’s truly happening,” added Armiger. “Also, $4-a-gallon gas prices are a tipping point for the U.S. consumer.”

The money manager also believes European leaders on vacation and the congressional recess are beneficial for markets. in that they are less likely to harm them. “With nothing coming out of Brussels or Washington, we’ll be looking out for some hiccup like Knight [Capital Group Inc.] next week,” Armiger said.

Earnings from various retailers and July retail-sales figures are likely to play off one another in the coming week, according to Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC.

Other data such as the July consumer-price index and the August Empire State index on Wednesday, along with the August Philly Fed on Thursday are also likely to get exceptional play, as we’re not likely “to be held hostage by European officials,” he said.

Retail is king in coming week
The biggest names in retail report quarterly results, with blue chips Home Depot Inc. on Tuesday and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. on Thursday. Read more about upcoming retailer earnings on MarketWatch.

Target Corp. will also report on Wednesday, along with Sears Holdings Corp. on Thursday.

With declining consumer sales in the past few months, retail will be a key focus to Brad Sorensen, Charles Schwab director of market and sector research. Between the retail-sales data on Tuesday and individual company reports, Sorensen said he’ll place more weight on the latter because of their forward-looking focus.

“Retailers are already looking forward to the Christmas season, and globally exposed retailers are seeing how the recession in Europe is affecting them,” he commented.

If Europe doesn’t shatter the relative market calm next week, investors will get a clearer look at how this earnings season has shaped markets, said Eric Marshall, portfolio manager of the Hodges Small Cap Fund.

“We’ll see how the equities market digests this week’s gains,” he added. “Earnings fundamentally came out better than expected. There was a better outlook than was feared, so if we see gains next week it’ll solidify that it was earnings driven.”

So far this earnings season, 447 companies in the S&P 500 have reported and of those 70% have beaten Wall Street consensus earnings estimates, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet.

But what’s more telling is that only 43% of those companies have topped revenue estimates, the lowest rate since the first quarter of 2009, he wrote in a note.

The outlooks look even more grim going into the third quarter. Of 84 S&P 500 companies, 67, or about 80%, have projected they will fall short of Wall Street consensus earnings estimates, Butters said.

Marshall is also focusing on earnings from specialty retailers in the coming week as they exhibit greater sensitivity to the health of consumer discretionary spending.

Specialty retailers reporting earnings in the coming week include Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. , TJX Cos. , Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Hot Topic Inc. , Limited Brands Inc. , PetSmart Inc. , Staples Inc. Children’s Place Retail Stores Inc. , Foot Locker Inc. , Aeropostale Inc. , Gap Inc.   and GameStop Corp.   

Other retailers reporting include high-end ones like Saks Inc.   and lower-end ones like Ross Stores Inc.   and Dollar Tree Inc.   

Nonretail earnings of note next week include blue-chip Cisco Systems Inc. , along with Groupon Inc.   and J.M. Smucker Co

“We kind of shook off the China data,” said Greg Anderson, G-10 strategist for Citi. “The trade data is for July and so the hope had been that June data was the worst and things should start to look better as Europe’s economy stabilizes.”

The Euro inched down slightly in trade, changing hands at $1.2287 versus $1.2297 late Thursday, but declined about 0.8% for the week.

Until recently, the euro had been supported by expectations that the European Central Bank would buy sovereign bonds in order to reduce borrowing costs for Spain and Italy, but those hopes have faded fast.

Continued global growth declines point toward an increasing likelihood that the European Central Bank, the People’s Bank of China and the Federal Reserve will all unveil new stimulus plans in the near-term.

In the midst, however, before definitive plans are outlined, DailyFX currency analyst Christopher Vecchio noted that the U.S. dollar appears to be carving out a bottom.

“Given the positive fundamental developments last week [like] the Federal Reserve holding back on more stimulus and July’s Nonfarm Payrolls report showing the labor market is adding jobs faster than anticipated, we believe the U.S. dollar is both fundamental and technically constructive in the short-term,” Vecchio wrote in a note.

The WSJ Dollar Index , which reflects the unit’s performance against other top traded currencies, hit an early day’s high at 71.86 but fell to 71.61 versus 71.77 Thursday.

Aussie proxy and more negative data from Asia

In addition to China’s trade data, Hong Kong and Singapore both reported negative quarter-over-quarter gross domestic product figures overnight, adding to potential stress on the aussie, a currency proxy for the Asian region.

The Australian dollar turned down, changing hands at $1.0572 in recent action versus $1.0579 late Thursday. Up 0.1% on the week, the aussie’s modest decline in reaction to the Chinese data surprised Citi’s Anderson.

“The weight on the aussie is not as high as I would have thought,” he said. “Truthfully no one was stuck long and wrong on aussie; everyone was on the sidelines.”

According to Anderson, given the magnitude of the surprises from Asia, Citi analysts believe markets are digesting the news rather well.

Markets look ahead and may already be looking ahead to a wave of monetary easing throughout Asia and in the US and Euro zone,” Anderson wrote in a note. ”However, if that easing is not delivered in September, then market disappointment reactions are likely to be much bigger than the post-Fed and post-ECB reactions last week.”

Against Japan’s yen, the dollar bought ¥78.27, down from ¥78.57 Thursday and falling 0.3% for the week.

Tuesday, Aug. 14 :

Mitt Romney campaigns in Ohio on the last stop of his four-day bus tour.

8:30 a.m.: U.S. retail sales for July, released by the Commerce Department.

8:30 a.m.: U.S. producer price index for July, released by the Labor Department.

10 a.m.: U.S. business inventories for June, released by the Commerce Department.

Wednesday, Aug. 15 :

8:30 a.m.: U.S. consumer price index for July, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Empire state index for August, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

9:15 a.m.: U.S. industrial production for July, released by the Federal Reserve.

10 a.m.: Home builders index for August, released by the National Association of Home Builders.

8 p.m.: Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota speech on Fed overview and role of regional Fed boards in Minot, North Dakota.

Thursday, Aug. 16 :

8:30 a.m.: U.S. weekly jobless claims, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: U.S. housing starts for July, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Report about manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia area, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

8 p.m.: Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota speech on Fed overview and role of regional Fed boards in Willison, North Dakota.

Institute for Policy Studies releases report titled “Executive Excess 2012: The CEO Hands in Uncle Sam’s Pocket,” about tax loopholes and executive pay.

Friday, Aug. 17 :

9:55 a.m.: Consumer sentiment index for August, released by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan.

10 a.m.: U.S. leading indicators for July, released by the Conference Board.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-13 21:47 | 显示全部楼层
A report on retail sales for July is set for release on Tuesday; economists surveyed by MarketWatch held a median expectation that sales would rise 0.2%, which would be a reversal after dropping 0.5% in June.

However, analysts at RBC Capital Markets tipped the result to come in better than the consensus view, “largely a function of the fact that we have been on a major losing streak in retail sales and that back-to-school shopping looks likely to be firmer than recent history.”

Still, they said that a strong gain for U.S. retail sales would “add to the muddied water” in terms of whether the Federal Reserve will embark on another round of quantitative easing in September.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-13 22:28 | 显示全部楼层





























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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-13 22:29 | 显示全部楼层

Price of bacon set to soar as producers are hit by new EU animal welfare laws

Consumers are being warned that the price of bacon will rise significantly next year as European producers quit the industry ahead of new laws governing animal welfare.

The predicted decline in the number of European producers comes while many of their counterparts in the UK industry, who account for 40% of all domestic bacon sales, are battling to stay in business.

Last week British pig farmers mounted a publicity drive to encourage consumers to buy British pork products. The National Pig Association warned that farmers who are responsible for as much as 10% of all British pig production will be forced to leave the industry by Christmas.

The association blamed poor crop-growing conditions, particularly in the US, for a 25% rise in the cost of pig feed ingredients, which has meant many producers are unable to turn a profit.

It claims that, if British pig farmers continue to leave the industry, around 1.5m rashers of British bacon and 2.3m British sausages a week will disappear from supermarket shelves.

Sharp rises in pig feed prices are not new. There have been spikes in 2008 and 2011 due to poor weather. "But what we are seeing now is a fundamental shift in grain prices going upwards," said NPA general manager Dr Zoe Davies.

For the British consumer, soaring feed prices may not be a problem in the short term. High street rivalry is making supermarkets reluctant to pay farmers more to cover their extra costs of production. And empty spaces on supermarket shelves, caused by British producers quitting the industry, can be filled with imported bacon and sausages, which are often cheaper than British alternatives but do not adhere to stringent welfare standards.

However, a partial ban on sow stalls, due to take effect throughout Europe from 1 January 2013, will have a major impact on the EU pig meat market, according to experts.

BPEX, the body that represents the interests of pig producers, said that similar animal welfare legislation, which came into force at the start of this year, has caused serious disruption with the price of eggs up 75% compared with a year ago.

BPEX warns that pig production is likely to fall by between 5% and 10% with the result that retailers will be face substantial price increases.

Only three EU member states have reported that they comply with the new legislation. Several have already indicated that they expect a "significant number" of their producers to stop breeding pigs or allow their herds to run down.

"In the past, the UK was 40% self-sufficient for pork and 60% came from elsewhere," Davies said. "But that is no longer going to be the case. We could soon see pork being imported from South America or Thailand if British producers go out of business."
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-13 22:34 | 显示全部楼层

Price of bacon set to soar as producers are hit by new EU animal welfare laws

Consumers are being warned that the price of bacon will rise significantly next year as European producers quit the industry ahead of new laws governing animal welfare.

The predicted decline in the number of European producers comes while many of their counterparts in the UK industry, who account for 40% of all domestic bacon sales, are battling to stay in business.

Last week British pig farmers mounted a publicity drive to encourage consumers to buy British pork products. The National Pig Association warned that farmers who are responsible for as much as 10% of all British pig production will be forced to leave the industry by Christmas.

The association blamed poor crop-growing conditions, particularly in the US, for a 25% rise in the cost of pig feed ingredients, which has meant many producers are unable to turn a profit.

It claims that, if British pig farmers continue to leave the industry, around 1.5m rashers of British bacon and 2.3m British sausages a week will disappear from supermarket shelves.

Sharp rises in pig feed prices are not new. There have been spikes in 2008 and 2011 due to poor weather. "But what we are seeing now is a fundamental shift in grain prices going upwards," said NPA general manager Dr Zoe Davies.

For the British consumer, soaring feed prices may not be a problem in the short term. High street rivalry is making supermarkets reluctant to pay farmers more to cover their extra costs of production. And empty spaces on supermarket shelves, caused by British producers quitting the industry, can be filled with imported bacon and sausages, which are often cheaper than British alternatives but do not adhere to stringent welfare standards.

However, a partial ban on sow stalls, due to take effect throughout Europe from 1 January 2013, will have a major impact on the EU pig meat market, according to experts.

BPEX, the body that represents the interests of pig producers, said that similar animal welfare legislation, which came into force at the start of this year, has caused serious disruption with the price of eggs up 75% compared with a year ago.

BPEX warns that pig production is likely to fall by between 5% and 10% with the result that retailers will be face substantial price increases.

Only three EU member states have reported that they comply with the new legislation. Several have already indicated that they expect a "significant number" of their producers to stop breeding pigs or allow their herds to run down.

"In the past, the UK was 40% self-sufficient for pork and 60% came from elsewhere," Davies said. "But that is no longer going to be the case. We could soon see pork being imported from South America or Thailand if British producers go out of business."
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-14 21:31 | 显示全部楼层


航民股份600987, 页岩气二次招标倒计时 航民股份(600987)等7家上市公司将争探矿权。页岩气概念股普涨,东华能源涨停,惠博普、宝莫股份、中天城投、吉电股份、山等公司也纷纷上涨。除了航民股份,此前,还有海越股份、湖北能源、惠博普、中天城投、永泰能源和广汇能源6家上市公司发布公告称将参加此次页岩气招标。华银电力



海鸥卫浴002084,10月23日发布澄清公告,针对公共传媒关于公司将受益于"未来五年,国家将完成地源热泵供暖(制冷)面积3.5亿平方米的相关规划"以及"公司在珠海建成地热恒温房,吸引多家机构投资者"的报道,公司表示,目前正在研发的产品有涉及地表层地源热泵的应用,但没有涉足中国大陆3000米至10000米深处干热岩资源地热项目,也没有在珠海建成地热恒温房。    公告显示,公司子公司珠海爱迪生节能科技有限公司的恒温混水阀产品是国内目前唯一通过欧、美、澳三地标准认证的恒温混水阀产品,其他产品未获此认证。温控暖气阀,PTR压力温度安全阀以及地暖及地暖集成系统等主要应用于供暖系统中以节能耗。公司目前已销售应用于山东省的"热改项目",实现了居民可自主调节室内温度,通过"用多少热交多少费"的经济方式促进百姓行为节能。    公司持股25%的子公司班尼戈舒适节能科技有限公司的主营业务是开发、生产和销售自产的热泵与工业节能系统设备,致力于住宅舒适节能系统产品的研发与推广,并于近期在北京市顺义区建成了物联网手机终端自动控制温度、湿度、新风,以及太阳能、空气源热泵或地源热泵提供或转换能源的"衡温、衡湿、衡氧"的"三衡"体验房,其产品涉及的是地表层地源热泵的应用。目前,此项业务处于起步阶段,预计明年中才会有产品问市。


卫星石化002648, 生意社旗下中国大宗商品研究中心首席研究员刘心田表示,自9月底日本丙烯酸巨头触媒公司38万吨丙烯酸装置爆炸以来,国内丙烯酸价格持续上涨,令今年第二、三季度低迷局面得以扭转,相关上市公司的业绩也得到改善。“丙烯酸这一轮行情有很大的偶然性,下游需求并未明显改善,而供给仍在不断扩大,预计这样的大涨行情将是昙花一现。”刘心田说。   不过,生意社化工分社丙烯酸分析师傅珊认为,一个月来丙烯酸持续大涨,目前涨幅已经收窄,但不排除后市仍有上涨可能。


信立泰002294,信立泰公告出资3.39 亿收购阿利沙坦酯所涉及的制剂生产技术,由江苏艾力斯负责生产原料药,公司收购该产品制剂。阿利沙坦酯对公司业务的支撑将至少持续到2026 年。艾力沙坦作为国内第一个自主研发的ARB 高血压药物,具有毒性小不通过肝脏代谢等优点,相对于市场其他沙坦类药物最大优点在于专利期至2026 年,未来市场空间很大,与氯吡格雷、比伐卢定、贝那普利等共同推广可极大发挥公司在心血管领域的优势。复方制剂是未来发展方向,公司正在进行研究。现有心血管业务延续快速增长,抗生素业务恢复性增长 心血管线:学术推广及终端市场的营销布局成效显现:氯吡格雷增长超过40%,相对外企赛诺菲的市场占有率还会进一步提升。欧盟认证正在筹备,若通过将有利于招标价格。竞争对手帅克目前份额很低,正大天晴短期内不会批准;比伐卢定的IV 期临床正在进行,未来估计是5 个亿品种。贝那普利等也快速增长; 抗生素线:抗生素销售、毛利率同比提升迅速(11 年同期抗生素销售陷入低谷, 且7-ACA 成本较高,导致公司整体利润基数较低)、



四川美丰 000731, 业绩好,另外拟与梅塞尔格里斯海姆(中国)投资有限公司(以下简称“梅塞尔中国”)签署《四川美丰梅塞尔气体产品有限公司合营合同》。另,外运发展

金通灵300091,公司与西安交通大学能源与动力工程学院(以下简称“交大能动学院” )于2012年10月25日签署《新型工艺离心压缩机开发协议》,公司与斯凯孚(中国)销售有限公司(以下简称“斯凯孚公司” )于2012年11月27日签署《磁悬浮式高速离心鼓风机联合开发协议》。公司主营通风机、鼓风机、压缩机等产品




[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-12-2 23:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-17 22:56 | 显示全部楼层
Juncker, head of the Eurogroup of euro-zone finance ministers, is heading to Athens on Wednesday to meet with Greek prime minister Antonis Samaras. The meeting in the Greek capital comes before Samaras travels to Berlin and Paris to meet with German chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday and French president Francois Hollande on Saturday. And Merkel and Hollande are due to meet on Thursday.

Greece faces its ultimate creditor on Friday, as the Greek and German prime ministers meet for the first time.

Antonis Samara needs to broach the topic that was the crux of his longstanding political campaign – a two year extension of Greece’s austerity programme. Angela Merkel won't consider any adjustments to the substance of the package, but will she relent and allow Greece more time?

Germany and the rest of Europe ran a convincing campaign to keep Greece in the Euro during a Greek election that became a vote on the nation's euro membership. On Friday we will find out if Germany plans to honour its commitment to renegotiate the nation’s bailout and prevent a Greek exit.

Next week could be crucial. Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is set to meet Merkel in Berlin on Friday and will visit French President François Hollande on Saturday.

He’s reportedly prepared to sound out Merkel on his call to stretch the implementation of new austerity measures over four years rather than the two years agreed as part of the country’s second bailout. Greek news reports, however, said Samaras wouldn’t formally request an extension until a meeting of European Union leaders in October.

Samaras campaigned on that pledge as his center-right New Democracy party eked out a first place finish in June’s parliamentary elections over the left-wing Syriza party, which had vowed to tear up the austerity provisions altogether.

The Greek economy has contracted in 14 of the last 15 quarters and posted a 6.2% year-on-year decline in the second quarter, making it increasingly difficult for the country to repair its balance sheet, noted economists at Rabobank.

But Samaras’s proposal isn’t expected to go over well in Berlin.

“Given the increasingly vocal opposition from German politicians to any further compromises for Greece, there is every chance that Mr. Samaras could find himself being firmly rebuffed by the French and German leaders,” said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, in a research note.

“Given that extending the austerity program has been a key promise for the [Greek] coalition partners, this could provide the catalyst for some political turbulence in Athens,” he said.

For Merkel, the problem is turbulence at home.

While the chancellor remains popular with the German public a little more than a year ahead of general elections, she’s facing a growing backlash within her own center-right Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, and ruling coalition over the handling of the euro-zone debt crisis.

A weekly poll conducted on behalf of Stern magazine and broadcaster RTL and released Wednesday found Merkel’s CDU had the support of 36% of voters, easily outweighing the center-left Social Democratic Party, or SPD, at 26%, and the Greens at 13%. Merkel’s coalition partner, the libertarian-oriented Free Democrats, stood at 4%, below the 5% threshold it needs to remain in parliament.

Merkel’s personal popularity exceeds support for the CDU, polls show.

At the same time, a recent survey found a majority of Germans believed they would be better off without the euro. That stands in the face of Merkel’s oft-repeated stance that the failure of the euro would mark the failure of Europe.

The euro jumped Thursday after Merkel told reporters in Canada that Germany was committed to maintaining the euro and appeared to support European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s pledge last month that the ECB would do whatever is necessary within its mandate to preserve the currency.

“What [Draghi] said is something that we repeated time and time again” since the start of the debt crisis more than two years ago, “that we feel committed to do everything we can in order to maintain the common currency,” Merkel said in a joint news conference with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

The euro traded at $1.2350 versus the dollar in recent action, little changed from Thursday but up 0.5% since the beginning of August. The shared currency has tumbled 4.6% versus the dollar since the beginning of the year.

The yield on Spain’s 10-year government bond traded at 6.47% on Friday, down 0.05 percentage point from Thursday and well off euro-era record highs above 7.60% set last month before Draghi made his pledge.

While Merkel appeared to back Draghi, members of her coalition have criticized his proposal for the ECB to resume buying bonds of troubled countries in the secondary market provided they first apply for help from the region’s rescue funds and agree to abide by strict conditions.

But it’s Greece that could steal the focus in the short term.

The country shouldn’t have any problem meeting a euro 3.8 billion ($4.7 billion) debt repayment due on Monday after successfully selling more than euro 4 billion in Treasury bills earlier this week.

Inspectors from Greece’s troika of international lenders — the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank — will return to Athens next month.

The ultimate crunch could come at a planned Oct. 8 meeting of euro-zone finance ministers, where a decision will have to be made regarding whether to release the second tranche of aid under Greece’s second bailout, which was originally due in June, said Christoph Rieger, strategist at Commerzbank.

Earlier this week, Michael Fuchs, the CDU’s deputy parliamentary floor leader, warned that Germany would block further aid for Greece if it doesn’t stick to bailout terms.

“If we are convinced that Greece has not met the requirements, then we will exercise this veto. Germany has reached the limit of its capacity,” Fuchs told the Handelsblatt newspaper.

Another senior Christian Democrat made headlines this week when he accused Merkel of crushing dissent within the CDU. Josef Schlarmann told a regional newspaper that the CDU under Merkel was “like eating in a college canteen which offers only one choice of meal a day. Anyone who doesn’t like the taste is kept away.”

Earlier this summer, senior members of the Christian Social Union, the conservative, Bavarian sister party of the CDU, urged Greece’s exit from the monetary union. Economy Minister Philipp Roesler, who is also chairman of the junior coalition partner Free Democrats, told a German magazine this week that Germany would block further aid if Greece doesn’t fall in line.

The debate hasn’t been a one-way affair, however. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, a former leader of the Free Democrats, told Der Spiegel magazine on Wednesday that Greece should be granted more time to put austerity measures in place in order to make up for time lost during this year’s Greek election campaign.

Still, “explicit resistance in Germany to the assumption of additional liabilities by the German taxpayer appears to have been rising — including among leading members of Ms. Merkel’s CDU/CSU/FDP coalition,” said Alastair Newton, senior political analyst at Nomura in London.

“The very public nature of these objections would make it difficult, in our view, for the individuals concerned to back down which, in turn, makes it increasingly unlikely in the current circumstances that Ms. Merkel will be able to claw back her recently lost ‘chancellor’s majority’ in the Bundestag,” he said.

The Bundestag, the lower house of Germany’s parliament, last month overwhelmingly backed legislation in a 473-97 vote authorizing Germany’s participation in a euro 100 billion euro bailout of Spain’s banking sector. She fell short, however, of the 311 votes from her own 330-member coalition — a so-called chancellor’s majority — needed to ensure she wouldn’t need help from opposition parties.

In the end, overwhelming support from opposition lawmakers ensured easy passage.

Indeed, opposition parties, particularly the SPD, have called for a swifter move toward fiscal union and the introduction of euro-zone bonds in an effort to save the euro.

But that may soon change, Newton said.

As elections near, opposition parties may be less likely to back Merkel in an effort to weaken her standing.

“We expect the SPD and the Greens to look to extract significant concessions from Ms. Merkel for their support in any further euro-zone-related Bundestag votes, potentially delaying time-sensitive legislation as well as spilling over into important domestic legislation,” he said, in a research note.

In turn, that is likely to spur Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble to avoid introducing crisis-related legislation and may also encourage them to come down hard against any further aid for Greece to the point of possibly “encouraging a Grexit, not least to try to exploit it and its consequences to bolster domestic — and wider euro-zone — support for the Merkel blueprint,” he said.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-8-17 22:58 编辑 ]
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