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 楼主| 发表于 2012-5-19 12:59 | 显示全部楼层
Yields on 10-year Spanish government bonds /quotes/zigman/4869131/delayed ES:10YR_ESP +1.20%   

SymbolPriceChange% Change
10_YEAR/quotes/zigman/4868283/delayed 1.63 0.02 1.24%
IT:10YR_ITA/quotes/zigman/4869096/delayed 6.13 0.07 1.09%
ES:10YR_ESP/quotes/zigman/4869131/delayed 6.71 0.10 1.44%
SymbolPriceChange% Change
DE:10YR_GER/quotes/zigman/4869083/delayed 1.50 0.03 2.27%
FR:10YR_FRA/quotes/zigman/4869091/delayed 2.62 0.04 1.75%
SymbolPriceChange% Change
NQU2/quotes/zigman/8751034 E-MINI NASDAQ 1002,532 5.25 0.21%
YMU2/quotes/zigman/8750835 E-MINI DOW12,447 16.00 0.13%



Speculation Spain might need a bailout of its own, just days after it agreed a support package for its beleaguered banking system, refuses to go away, with the government scheduled to face markets this week when it auctions new bonds.


Contagion fears have also spread to Italy where bond yields have leapt higher as well.


Spain has front-loaded much of its funding needs for 2012 but a long-awaited banking audit will determine how much more is drawn down from its EUR100 billion banking loan deal with the European Union, while a meeting in Rome will see Spain, Germany, France and Italy trying to trying to agree a common approach ahead of an EU leaders summit on June 28.



Key Upcoming European Union Crisis Moments:

Tuesday, June 19: Spanish T-bill auction, Greek T-bill auction [tentative]. German June ZEW economic-sentiment indicator. G-20 leaders summit.


Wednesday, June 20: German bond auction.
  
Thursday, June 21: Spanish and French bond auction. Euro-zone finance ministers meeting. First results of independent audits of Spanish banks due.
  
Friday, June 22: German May Ifo Business-Climate Index. European Union finance ministers meeting. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy meet in Rome.
  
Monday, June 25: Belgian bond auction.
  
Tuesday, June 26: Spanish T-bill auction, Italian bond auction. Dutch 10-year government bond auction.
  
Wednesday, June 27: Italian T-bill auction. Allotment of ECB three-month long-term refinancing operation.
  
Thursday, June 28: Italian bond auction. EU heads of state summit.
  
Friday, June 29:Germany's lower house to vote on the European Stability Mechanism, the European Union’s permanent bailout fund. Euro-area May M3/private-sector loan data. Euro-area flash June inflation data. EU heads of state summit.
Sunday, July 1: ESM scheduled to come into force.
  
Monday, July 2: French T-bill auction. Euro-zone June manufacturing PMI and May unemployment data.
  
Tuesday, July 3: Belgian treasury certificate auction. Austrian bond auction. Euro-zone June services PMI data.
  
Thursday, July 5: Spanish and Slovakian bond auctions. ECB rate decision and press conference.
  
Monday, July 9: French T-bill auction. Slovakian bond auction. EU finance ministers meet - maybe a further meeting required.

July 9 - Eurogroup meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels.
July 10 - Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers in Brussels.
  
Thursday, July 12: Italian T-bill auction.
  
Friday, July 13: Italian bond auction.
  
Monday, July 16: French T-bill auction.

Tuesday, July 17: Spanish T-bill auction. Belgian treasury certificate auction. German June ZEW economic-sentiment indicator. Fed Bernake speaks
  
Thursday, July 19: Spanish and French bond auctions.
  
Friday, July 20: German June Ifo Business-Climate index.
  
Monday, July 23: French T-bill auction.
  
Tuesday, July 24: Spanish T-bill auction.
  
Thursday, July 26: Italian bond auction. Euro-area June M3/private-sector loan data.
  
Friday, July 27: Italian T-bill auction.
  
Monday, July 30: French T-bill auction. Italian and Belgian bond auctions. Spanish bond redemptions totaling EUR12.9 billion.
  
Tuesday, July 31: Belgian treasury certificate auction. The conclusion of the second phase ofSpain’s bank sector review.

Sept. 14/15 - Informal Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers to be held in Cyprus.
Oct. 8 - Eurogroup meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Luxembourg.
Oct. 9 - Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers in Luxembourg.
Oct. 18/19 - Summit of EU heads of state and government in Brussels.
Nov. 13 - Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers in Brussels.
Dec. 3 - Eurogroup meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels.

Dec. 4 - Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers in Brussels.
Dec. 13/14 - Summit of EU heads of state and government in Brussels.

Nov 6th, 2012
US Presidential Election

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-7-7 20:30 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-5-19 13:35 | 显示全部楼层
5月17日消息 汇丰银行大中华区首席经济学家屈宏斌今日表示,目前各项宏观数据都显示,内地的实体经济已经很不乐观,4月GDP估计已跌至7%以下。如果未来3个月政府还不加大政策调整力度,今年内地经济或会出现硬着陆。

  屈宏斌今日在其新浪微博上表示,内地4月狭义货币供应量同比增速跌至3.3%,并且已经连续8个月增速低于10%,同时流通中现金的同比增速仍然处于10%以上,这说明企业活期存款也已经连续数月出现负增长。汇丰PMI(制造业采购经理人指数)连续6个月低于50,4月GDP估计已经跌至7%以下。

  他强调,“如果汇丰PMI连续6个月低于50还不能使你相信实体经济早已很不乐观的话,货币数据总该够清楚了吧”,并指出,如果未来3个月政府还不加大政策调整力度的话,今年内地经济或会出现硬着陆。

  5月2日刚公布的4月份汇丰PMI的终值为49.3,虽然略好过初值,但已经连续6个月低于50的分水岭。屈宏斌当时曾表示,4月PMI终值好于初值,这表明随着前期实施的宽松措施开始起效,内地经济增速放缓的趋势已经趋于稳定。在未来通胀继续回落的背景下,市场可以期待进一步的宽松政策,预计经济增长在二季度会开始回升。

  但5月10日公布的内地4月外贸数据显示,4月出口增速从3月的8.9%下滑至4.9%,进口同比仅增长0.3%,较3月的5.3%大幅降低。屈宏斌对此表示,由于世界经济形势未见好转,出口增幅下降并非意外,但进口近乎零增长低于市场预期,且原材料进口大幅减速说明投资需求仍在下行,如果政策微调不加力的话,就必须承担实体经济下滑加深的风险。

  有关未来的政策和改革方向,屈宏斌认为,货币财政政策只是短期政策,主要用来熨平经济周期,不能解决结构性问题。他建议政府出台实质性的减税措施,加大保障房和医疗等民生领域财政投入,并立即为民间资本开放更多领域。“宏观政策与改革是互补的,宏观政策做好了能保持经济平稳增长,为改革创造良好条件,而深化改革也能使政策的传递机制更有效。”

  内地近日发布的电力数据、铁路货运量和银行新增贷款数据均显示经济活动急剧下滑,市场开始担心中国经济可能面对硬着陆的风险。央行于上周宣布,自5月18日起下调存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金率0.5个百分点,瑞穗发布报告表示,此举显示决策者已经意识到需要加快政策放松节奏,以阻止经济进一步恶化。报告还称,若不采取明显的放松措施,硬着陆将成为一个实际的风险。

  但也有券商认为市场过于悲观。美银美林发布报告称,由于机构改革带来收益减少、剩余劳动力枯竭和自然资源供应的约束,中国经济正不可避免地减速,但目前的增速放缓仍是软着陆,出现硬着陆的可能性非常小,疲弱的发电量数据并不具备指标性。此外,评级机构惠誉也对中国经济前景保持相对乐观的看法,维持了今年中国经济增长8%的预测,并认为没有硬着陆风险。
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-5-19 13:53 | 显示全部楼层
  当前我国家产出产下行筑底态势进一步建立,二季度家产出产将连续一季度的回落态势,起源判定同比增添10.5%阁下,有望到达年内低点。


  在海内经济刺激政策慢慢退出和西欧日等发家经济体经济增添放缓的影响下,当前我国家产出产下行筑底态势进一步建立,二季度家产出产将连续一季度的回落态势,起源判定同比增添10.5%阁下,有望到达年内低点。

  家产出产增速超预期下滑,布局调解稳步推进

  家产出产增速明明回落。2012年4月份,局限以上家产增进值同比增添9.3%,增速比上月回落2.6个百分点,比客岁同月回落4.1个百分点,创2009年6月以来最低增速。从环比看,1-4月,局限以上家产增进值环比别离增添0.47%、0.62%、1.16%和0.35%,4月份环比增速为2011年以来最低,环比折年率仅为4.3%。  

  分地域看,东中西部家产增速均呈回落态势,4月份,东部地域增进值同比增添8.2%,比上月回落2.2个百分点,中部地域增添10.6%,比上月回落4.8个百分点,西部地域增添11.8%,比上月回落1.2个百分点。1-4月,局限以上家产增进值同比增添11.0%,增速比一季度回落0.6个百分点,比客岁同期回落3.2个百分点。

  重家产增速回落是家产增速回落的要害。2012年4月份,重家产出产增添8.9%,增速比上月回落2.3个百分点,比客岁同月回落5.1个百分点,个中,石油石化、机器和电力家产部分增速较低,同比别离增添2.5%、7.6%和2.6%,均低于局限以上家产出产增速,比上月别离回落1.2、3.3和5.9个百分点。

  4月份,轻家产增添10.3%,增速比上月回落3.6个百分点,比客岁同月回落1.6个百分点,个中烟草和纺织部划星散增添6.8%和11.5%,比上月别离回落11.2和2.6个百分点;4月份,轻重家产走势连续分化态势,增速差为1.4个百分点。  

  1-4月,重家产增添10.5%,比一季度回落0.5个百分点,比客岁同期回落4.2个百分点,轻家产增添12.3%,比一季度回落0.9个百分点,比客岁同期回落0.6个百分点。因为重家产在整个家产中的占比明明高于轻家产,因此,重家产增速回落是家产增进值增速下滑的要害身分。

  布局调解稳步推进。一是家产出产在保持安稳较快增添的同时,布局调解步骤不绝加速,高新技能财富成长迅猛。4月份,高技能财富增添10.4%,高于局限以上家产出产增速1.1个百分点。1-4月,局限以上高技能财富累计增添12.7%,高于局限以上家产增速1.7个百分点。

  二是高耗能行业出产增速小幅回落。4月份,六大高耗能行业增进值同比增添8.0%,低于局限以上家产增进值增速1.3个百分点。1-4月,六大高耗能行业增进值累计增添9.8%,低于局限以上家产增进值增速1.2个百分点。


  个中,石油加工炼焦及核燃料加家产、电力热力出产和供给业、玄色金属冶炼及压延加家产增速较低,累计同比别离增添5.3%、6.0%和8.4%,但有色金属冶炼及压延加家产和非金属矿物成品业保持较高的增添势头,累计同比别离增添14.6%和13.6%,增速明明高于局限以上家产整体增速。

  家产品出口一连回落。4月份,家产企业实现出口交货值8619亿元,同比增添6.1%,增速比上月回落4.3个百分点,比客岁同月回落14.0个百分点。1-4月,家产企业实现出口交货值31680亿元,同比增添7.6%,增速比一季度加速0.2个百分点,比客岁同期回落13.1个百分点。  

  首要家产品产量同比增速回落幅度较大。4月份,发电量、钢材、水泥和十种有色金属产量同比别离增添0.7%、7.9%、4.0%和2.3%,比上月别离回落5.2、2.3、3.9和1.2个百分点,比客岁同月别离回落11.0、0.4、18.4和9.3个百分点,乙烯产量同比降落6.3%,降落幅度比上月扩大1.5个百分点,比客岁同月扩大34.7个百分点。  

  1-4月,发电量、钢材、水泥和十种有色金属同比累计别离增添5.0%、6.2%、5.5%和4.6%,比一季度别离回落1.6、0.3、1.8和1.2个百分点,比客岁同期别离回落7.7、6.4、14.1和5.0个百分点,乙烯产量累计同比降落2.3%,降落幅度比一季度扩大1.4个百分点,比客岁同期扩大33.3个百分点。  

  家产出产者价值低位运行。4月份,家产出产者价值同比涨幅连续回落态势,家产出产者出厂价值同比降落0.7%,降落幅度比上月扩大0.4个百分点,比客岁同月扩大7.5个百分点,从环比看,家产出产者出厂价值环比上涨0.2%,涨幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。4月份,家产出产者购进价值同比降落0.8%,降落幅度比上月扩大0.9个百分点,比客岁同月扩大11.2个百分点,4月份家产出产者购进价值环比持平。  

  1-4月,家产出产者出厂价值累计同比降落0.1%,降落幅度比一季度扩大0.3个百分点,比客岁同期扩大7.1个百分点,家产出产者购进价值累计同比上涨0.6%,涨幅比一季度收窄0.4个百分点,比客岁同期收窄9.7个百分点。


  企业去库存步骤加速,二季度家产出产回落筑底的态势建立


  1.支撑家产出产的有利身分。一是先行指数一连回升。2012年4月份,中国制造业采购司理指数PMI为53.3%,环比上升0.2个百分点,该指数持续五个月回升,本月在上月较高程度的基本上小幅回升。个中,出产指数到达57.2%,比上月上升2个百分点,为客岁1月份以来的最大值,表白出产策划勾当加速,制造业经济整体示意稳中趋升。

  二是企业利润有所好转。一季度,世界局限以上家产企业实现利润10449亿元,同比降落1.3%,但降落幅度比1-2月收窄3.9个百分点。个中,3月当月实现利润4389亿元,同比增添4.5%。

  三是美国经济稳步清醒。美国供给协会(ISM)最新发布的4月份美国PMI为54.8%,环比扩大1.4个百分点,明明好于预期,创10个月以来新高,制止4月美国制造业勾当已持续第33个月扩张。从就业数据看,美国4份赋闲率为8.1%,比上月再次回落0.1个百分点。因为美国经济的好转,对美国的出口也根基维持在正常程度,本年前4月我国对美国出口1027亿美元,比客岁同期增添12%,在首要商业搭档中处于较高程度。  

  2.倒霉于家产增添的首要身分。一是三大需求缺乏增添动力。客岁二季度以来,受美欧日等发家经济体经济增添步骤放和缓海内经济刺激政策退出的影响,我国经济增速一连回落,2011年第二至第四序度,GDP别离增添9.5%、9.0%和8.9%,呈逐渐回落态势。进入2012年以来,经济安稳回落的趋势进一步建立。

  2012年一季度,GDP同比增添8.1%,比客岁同期回落1.6个百分点,比客岁整年回落1.1个百分点。从三大需求看,2012年1-4月,牢靠资产投资增添20.2%,比一季度回落0.7个百分点,比客岁同期回落5.2个百分点;社会斲丧品零售总额增添14.7%,比一季度回落0.1个百分点,比客岁同期回落1.8个百分点;出口增添6.9%,比一季度回落0.7个百分点,比客岁同期回落20.5个百分点。

  二是房地产调控倒霉于家产增添。1-4月,商品房贩卖面积21562万平方米,同比降落13.4%,商品房贩卖额12421亿元,降落11.8%;1-4月,房地产开拓企业土地购买面积9657万平方米,同比降落19.3%,降幅比一季度扩大15.4个百分点;4月末,商品房待售面积30308万平方米,比3月末增进186万平方米。

  因此,在当前房地产调控政策下,因为房地产贩卖的不景气、企业高库和资金来历的镌汰将克制房地产开拓投资,1-4月,世界房地产开拓投资15835亿元,同比增添18.7%,增速比客岁同期回落15.6个百分点,比一季度回落4.8个百分点,房地产投资增速的回落对家产出产组成压力。

  1-4月,与房地产、基建等相干的钢铁、水泥等严峻产能过剩的传统行业增速大幅减缓也印证了房地产调控对家产出产的影响,1-4月,钢材、水泥和十种有色金属同比累计别离增添6.2%、5.5%和4.6%,比一季度别离回落0.3、1.8和1.2个百分点。因为重家产与投资相关亲近,重家产增速的放缓进一步表白投资仍处于下滑区间。

  三是家产面对去库存化压力。需求降温导致家产品价值降落,家产产制品面对去库存压力,2012年以来,家产出产者价值一连回落,1-4月家产出产者出厂价值同比降落0.1%,价值的回落加快了企业去库存步骤。2012年一季度,局限以上家产企业产制品资金占用累计增进16.4%,比1-2月回落1.9个百分点,比客岁同期回落6.8个百分点。4月份,PMI的首要原原料库存指数为48.5%,比上月回落1.0个百分点,持续12个月位于临界点以下,表白制造业首要原原料库存量继承回落。

  四是钱币对家产的支撑手段有待进一步加强。4月份社会融资局限为9596亿元,比上年同期少4077亿元,个中,4月份人民币贷款增进6818亿元,同比少增612亿元,中恒久贷款1893亿元,在贷款中的比重明明偏低,表现信贷对实体经济的支撑手段有待增强。从信贷投向看,家产中恒久贷款增速明明放缓。截至到一季度末,首要金融机构本外币家产中恒久贷款余额6.26万亿元,同比增添7.3%,比上年尾低2个百分点,本年一季度增进1532亿元,同比少增697亿元。

  个中,重家产中恒久贷款余额5.62万亿元,同比增添7.4%,比上年尾低3.3个百分点。4月份,银行间人民币市场同业拆借月加权均匀利率为3.25%,比上月高0.67个百分点,质押式债券回购月加权均匀利率为3.29%,比上月高0.63个百分点,表现市场融资本钱有所上升。4月末,M2余额同比增添12.8%,比上月末低0.6个百分点,M1余额同比增添3.1%,比上月末低1.3个百分点。央行抉择自5月18日起,下调存款类金融机构人民币存款筹备金率0.5个百分点,表现了钱币政策稳增添的意图。  

  五是欧元区经济增添乏力。数据表现,4月份欧元区制造业采购司理人指数PMI为45.9%,比上月回落1.8个百分点,创2009年6月以来最低程度。欧元区的焦点国度德国4月份PMI为46.2%,比上月回落0.2个百
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-5-24 23:19 | 显示全部楼层
J.P. Morgan said Thursday 24th May a continuing recession in Europe will lead the European Central Bank to ease monetary policy further with rate cuts and another lending measure known as LTRO. After the day's weak manufacturing reports for the region, "the ECB will feel more pressure to deliver a monetary response, even though it feels that is has already done a lot to support the region. This response could, for example, be done through interest rate cuts or through further liquidity measures," Greg Fuzesi, an analyst at J.P. Morgan, wrote in a note. It's likely the ECB will start in June by extending its current shorter-term liquidity measures beyond July, while the announcement of a one-year long-term refinancing operation could be made at officials' July meeting. "Beyond this, we expect the main refi rate to be cut 25 basis points at the September meeting," he wrote. The euro briefly spiked up, which could partially be explained by the note, said Christopher Vecchio, a currency analyst at DailyFX
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-5-27 20:56 | 显示全部楼层
“More volatility is sure to follow as we see if Greece divorces from the euro,” he said.

Even so, U.S. equities have held up reasonably well.

“Although the U.S. economy may be ugly, in a beauty pageant of uglies, the least ugly wins — and that’s us,” said Springer.

Looking ahead to next week, analysts polled by MarketWatch expect to see a rise in May consumer confidence Tuesday and a pickup in May manufacturing data due Friday. The analysts also expect Thursday’s first-quarter gross domestic product revision to show a rise of 1.9%, down from a previous reading of 2.2% growth.

Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment data due Friday may offer the clearest picture to date on the state of the U.S. economy. Analysts expect nonfarm payrolls for May to show a rise to 170,000 from 115,000 in April, while unemployment is likely to remain at 8.1%. See the U.S. economic calendar.

“Many job seekers are becoming increasingly discouraged and have stopped looking for work altogether,” so don’t expect to see a rise in overall unemployment figures, said Springer.

Thursday will also see the release of same-store sales for May. While Mother's Day helped sales, chilly weather didn’t, and several retailers have toned down their own expectations, analysts said.

On Friday, car makers will roll out their May sales numbers. TrueCar.com predicts a 32% jump in overall year-over-year sales, with all major auto makers expected to post double-digit gains. The industry research company also expects new car sales to mark the best May since 2007.

On the Federal Reserve’s docket, Wednesday will see speeches from Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Fed, as well as speeches from Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and New York Fed President William Dudley. Thursday’s speech from Sandra Pianalto, Cleveland Fed president, will focus on monetary policy and the economic outlook.

Monday, May 28
Government closed in observance of Memorial Day.

Tuesday, May 29
Texas presidential primary election.

Senate out all week while members are on constituent visits.

House of Representatives reconvenes in Washington.

9 a.m.: Case-Shiller home price index for April, released by Case-Shiller.

10 a.m.: Consumer confidence index for May, released by the Conference Board.

Wednesday, May 30
10 a.m.: Pending home sales for April, released by the National Association of Realtors.

Thursday, May 31
8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: First-quarter GDP revision, released by the Commerce Department.

9:30 a.m.: Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds all-day public roundtable on proposed regulations to implement the Volcker Rule of the Dodd-Frank financial reform act, at CFTC headquarters.

9:45 a.m.: Chicago PMI index of business activity in the region, released by the Institute for Supply Management.

10 a.m.: Outgoing Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chairman Gregory Jaczko and fellow NRC commissioners testify at hearing on NRC policy and governance, at the House Energy subcommittees on Environment and the Economy and on Energy and Power.

Friday, June 1
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls for May, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Consumer spending and personal income for April, released by Labor Department.

10 a.m.: ISM index on manufacturing activity in May, released by the Institute for Supply Management.

10 a.m.: Construction spending for April, released by the Commerce Department.

飞马国际、怡亚通、澳洋顺昌、新宁物流、华贸物流

Monday, May 28
Bank of Israel decision2.5%
7:50 p.m.Japan retail salesApr.-1.2%
Tuesday, May 29
Central Bank of Turkey decision5.75%
Wednesday, May 30
7:50 p.m.Japan industrial productionApr.1.3%
Thursday, May 31
5 a.m.Euro-zone CPI, year-on-yearMay2.6%
9 p.m.China manufacturing PMIMay53.3
Friday, june 1
4 a.m.Euro-zone final manufacturing PMIMay45.0


[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-5-27 20:58 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-5-29 20:17 | 显示全部楼层
An exit by Greece from the euro-area could initially trigger a fall to 1,200 for the Standard & Poor's 500, but such an exit would also prompt an "aggressive policy response" that could lift the market 20%-plus, said analysts at Credit Suisse in a research note Tuesday.

"Into a euro area breakup scenario, we believe the S&P 500 would fall to 950," the analysts said, adding that the probability-weighted fair value of the different scenarios is 1,440.

The bad news, they said, is that the crisis will need to ramp up before the European Central Bank delivers the needed policy response. "Given markets tend to over-price in political risk and given probable lagged response of the ECB, we would not be surprised if equities fell another 5%, even in our core scenario," the analysts said.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-5-31 18:17 | 显示全部楼层
May market mayhem
Global markets buckle on fresh concerns that European currency union is near dissolution. U.S. Treasurys, dollar are among the monthly winners.
IndexMTD
S&P 500 (SPX)-6.1%
Nasdaq Composite (COMP)-6.9%
Oil (NMN: CLN2)-16%
Spain Ibex 35 (XX:IBEX)-12.3%
Japan Nikkei 225 (JP:100000018)-10.3%
Hong Kong HSI (HK:HSI)-11.7%
Russia RTS (RTG: RTS)-20.3%
Euro vs. dollar (EURUSD)-6.2%
U.S. Treasurys (return) (10_YEAR)+1%
Dollar index (DXY)+5.1%
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX)+41%
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-2 12:06 | 显示全部楼层

Selected China stocks look cheap: Credit Suisse

By Chris Oliver

HONG KONG  -- Credit Suisse highlighted on Friday eight Chinese companies whose stock appears to offer good value relative to their lows in the stock market rout of 2008 to 2009, saying their share prices should draw support at current levels. The research brokerage said three big banking groups were among those it listed as trading at price-to-book valuations cheaper than the lows during the prior crisis. Credit Suisse said

China Construction Bank Corp. /quotes/zigman/35073 HK:939 +0.74% /quotes/zigman/1876229 CN:601939 0.00% ,

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. /quotes/zigman/37346 HK:1398 -0.42% /quotes/zigman/1874076 CN:601398 +0.47% and

Bank of China Ltd. /quotes/zigman/35803 HK:3988 -0.33% /quotes/zigman/529024/quotes/nls/bachy BACHY +2.34% /quotes/zigman/1873420 CN:601988 0.00%

were on its list, but added that it had an "overweight" view on the Chinese banking sector.

Other companies rounding out the goup of eight included

China Mobile Ltd. /quotes/zigman/22400 HK:941 -0.76% /quotes/zigman/263044/quotes/nls/chl CHL -1.43% ,

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. /quotes/zigman/13931 HK:688 -2.84% /quotes/zigman/527919/quotes/nls/caovy CAOVY +36.48% ,

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. /quotes/zigman/1866975 CN:600019 0.00% ,

Angang Steel Co. /quotes/zigman/16855 HK:347 -0.45% /quotes/zigman/314077/quotes/nls/anggy ANGGY -2.66% and

China Coal Energy Co. /quotes/zigman/37836 HK:1898 -2.36% /quotes/zigman/507020/quotes/nls/ccozy CCOZY +2.42% .
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-2 12:16 | 显示全部楼层

Europe, Fed-watching to dominate next week

Pessimism boosts anticipated release of the next round of ‘QE3’

Developments out of Europe and Federal Reserve-watching will be the main investor preoccupations in the coming week, as anxiety deepens over the euro-zone and U.S. economies.

“We remain hostage to news that is exported from Europe,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

On Monday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is scheduled to meet with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso in Berlin in advance of a Brussels meeting of European leaders in late June.

Also, investors will be alert to any updates on Greece’s commitment to remaining in the euro zone. Recent polls indicate Greek voters want to have their financial bailout package terms revised favorably and stay in the euro zone too. Greeks will vote in a second parliamentary election June 17 after an earlier election in May failed to produce a coalition government.

The past week capped off a lousy May where investors took the old adage to heart, sold and went away. Over the month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA -2.22%  dropped 6.2%, the S&P 500 Index /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX -2.46%  fell 6.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index /quotes/zigman/123127 COMP -2.82%  shed 7.2%.

On Friday, stocks extended those losses into the new month, swooning more than 2%. As investors fled to perceived safety assets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note /quotes/zigman/4868283/delayed 10_YEAR +0.07%  fell to a record low of under 1.5%. Read more on U.S. stocks Friday.

Developments in Spain sent jitters through international markets in the past week as that country’s officials seek to stitch together a plan to recapitalize nationalized bank Bankia SA /quotes/zigman/5907705 ES:BKIA -2.21% . Also, the head of the Bank of Spain said he would step down a month early.

Those events, along with a downgrade of the country by Egan-Jones Ratings Co., sent Spanish 10-year bond yields sharply higher to 6.5%. Then, on Friday, the same firm downgraded Italy’s sovereign rating to B+ from BB. Read more on Italy downgrade.

You want some QE3 with that lousy jobs report?
The latest headlines to jolt stocks came from the U.S. after the Labor Department said the economy in May created the fewest number of jobs in a year, and that the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.2%. Read more on jobs, unemployment.

With that release, hurdles have been lowered for the Fed to start considering some sort quantitative easing measure, Luschini said.

Recently, Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren indicated that weakening economic data over the past few months supports the case for further easing on monetary policy. Read more on Rosengren.

While he doesn’t expect anything more than an acknowledgment of shaky economic indicators from Fed speakers next week, Luschini called Friday’s rally in bonds, cratering in stocks and gold’s bounce more of a “canary in a coal mine for QE3.”

Gold /quotes/zigman/676896 GCQ2 +4.05%  on Friday jumped $57.90, or 3.7%, to settle at $1,622.10 an ounce, after declining by about 6% in May. Read more on Friday's gold surge.

With a light schedule of economic indicators in the coming week, Thursday will likely be a big day with weekly jobless numbers and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifying before Congress, said Frank Fantozzi, president and senior adviser at Planned Financial Services.

Bernanke, who is speaking before the Joint Economic Committee on economic outlook and monetary policy, may even hint at getting involved in QE3 given the recent souring in economic indicators, according to Fantozzi.

“The thing we’re digesting now is what happened with the jobs report. It’s not showing that a recovery is taking,” Fantozzi said. “With the last three months trending away there’s a high probability that QE3 will be on the table to discuss.”

Before Bernanke speaks, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo on Wednesday is testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on the Dodd-Frank Act. Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen will be delivering a speech on economic outlook and monetary policy to the Boston Economic Club Wednesday evening.

Additionally, the Fed will release its regional economic report, the so-called Beige Book, on Wednesday.

Other coming economic indicators include April factory orders on Monday, the Institute for Supply Management’s May services index on Tuesday, first-quarter productivity and labor cost figures on Wednesday, and April trade deficit and wholesale inventories data on Friday.

With the bulk of earnings season over, a few S&P 500 companies will report first-quarter earnings in the coming week. On Wednesday, Brown-Forman Corp. /quotes/zigman/220616/quotes/nls/bf.a BF.A -3.50%  and Pall Corp. /quotes/zigman/237641/quotes/nls/pll PLL -2.28%  will report earnings, with J.M. Smucker Co. /quotes/zigman/305815/quotes/nls/sjm SJM -2.27%  reporting Thursday.

Also McDonald’s Corp. /quotes/zigman/233369/quotes/nls/mcd MCD -2.94%   is slated to report May sales.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-2 12:27 | 显示全部楼层

Week Ahead

US

What's ahead for the coming week, including ISM data, the E3 gaming conference and same-store sales from McDonald's.

Europe

A look ahead to the market-moving events for the week beginning 4 June. Including ECB rate announcement on Wednesday and services and composite PMI from Germany and France. Sara Sjolin and Ishaq Siddiqi run us through the week's events.

Monday, June 4
President Barack Obama is in New York City for campaign events.

10 a.m.: Factory orders for April, released by the Commerce Department.

Tuesday, June 5
9:30 a.m.: Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds public roundtable on proposed regulations for designated contract markets, at CFTC headquarters.

10 a.m.: ISM services index for May, released by the Institute of Supply Management.

10 a.m.: Congressional Budget Office releases its 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook.

Wednesday, June 6
Obama is in San Francisco and Los Angeles for campaign events.

8:30 a.m.: First-quarter productivity revision, released by the Labor Department.

10 a.m.: Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo testifies on the implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act, at the Senate Banking Committee.

2 p.m.: Beige Book on regional economic conditions, released by the Federal Reserve.

Thursday, June 7
Obama speaks at the University of Nevada Las Vegas.

8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, released by the Labor Department.

10 a.m.: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on economic outlook and monetary policy, at the Joint Economic Committee.

Friday, June 8
Obama meets with Philippine President Benigno Aquino III at the White House.

8:30 a.m.: Trade deficit for April, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Wholesale inventories for April, released by the Commerce Department.

Monday, JUNE 4
No major indicators scheduled
Tuesday, JUNE 5
12:30 AMAustralia RBA cash rate3.75%
4 amEuro-zone composite PMIMay45.9
6 amGermany factory ordersApril2.2%
Wednesday, JUNE 6
7:45 amECB interest rates1.00%
5 amEuro-zone GDPQ10.0%
6 amGermany industrial productionApril-0.3%
Thursday, JUNE 7
7 amBank of England interest rates0.50%
7 amBank of England asset purchases325
5:50 pmJapan GDPQ14.1%
Friday, JUNE 8
2 amGermany trade balanceApril17.4 bln
2:45 amFrance trade balanceApril-5.7 bln
4 amItaly industrial productionApril0.5%
4:30 amU.K. input pricesMay-1.5%
12 noonMexico overnight rate4.50%
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-8 21:51 | 显示全部楼层
The Economics Ministry said Friday that the first results of the independent audit stress-testing of Spanish banks would be revealed June 21, which would show how much the banks need for support and which institutions are most vulnerable.

The results of a second stage of the audit, which would value the banks, will be known July 31.

Also, the International Monetary Fund will release an audit of Spanish banks on June 11.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-8 22:04 | 显示全部楼层
Deutsche Bank economist Jun Ma welcomed the rate cut, announced Thursday, saying it should help boost demand for loans and lower credit-funding costs for corporations.

The move would be especially helpful for the highly leveraged sectors, such electrical-power producers, which should see their annual profits rise by about 7% thanks to lowered borrowing costs, Ma said in a note to clients Friday.

Ma was also cautiously upbeat on the efforts to allow more competition among banks in setting rates.

“The commencement of interest-rate liberalization should also, in the longer term, help improve the allocation of financial resources, although it may generate short-term pressure on banks’ net interest margin,” Ma said in the note.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch said it was disappointed by the limited scale of the announcement, saying it wasn’t a big step toward generating real competition between banks in attracting customers.

“As banks will compete for deposits anyway, the 10% room above benchmark deposits is so small that banks will almost surely raise deposit rates to the upper limit. In this regard, the 10% room is equivalent to a hike of deposit rates,” Merrill analysts said in a note to clients Thursday following the PBOC’s decision.

“On lending rates, the bigger room (20%, from the previous 10%) does effectively widen the band of lending rate, but banks usually only offer their biggest state-owned clients rates below benchmark,” they said.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-8 22:51 | 显示全部楼层

Something in the works

Predrag Dukic, senior equity sales trader at CM Capital Markets in Madrid said it would be hard for Spain or European officials to come up with any kind of plan ahead of the details of the audits and the IMF report on the banks. But mere hope of a plan rallied stocks Friday, he said.

“Clearly they’re working on something,” said Dukic. “It’s clear a solution will be found. The only question is what sort of solution will be found, how much in terms of money is needed to rescue the Spanish banks? How much will they be requested to provide themselves? How will they avoid the crucial European Union treaty saying you can’t really put money into banks?

“Will it be money from the ESM (European Stability Mechanism) into the FROB (Spain’s bank rescue fund), and then the FROB will inject money into troubled banks? How exactly that will happen is very important,” he said.

Exactly how much Spain’s banks need for a bailout, which has been brought about by a collapse in the housing market and a sharp economic downturn, remains the key number for markets. Dukic said the market seem to be settled on an 80 billion euro ($100 billion) figure, with banks expected to get around euro 40 billion in any bailout and raise the rest by issuing debt and cutting back on such things as dividends.

Michael Symonds, credit analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets, said officials probably would like to be pre-emptive about any rescue for Spain ahead of the Greek election June 17, meaning the weekend could still produce some sort of bailout framework.

“Nevertheless, I’m less convinced that they’ll be able to definitively agree to a comprehensive solution at such sort notice,” said Symonds in emailed comments. “In particular given what’s at stake, with any ring-fenced support for the Spanish banking potentially setting the blueprint for other bank rescues that may be required elsewhere in the euro area should contagion spread.”

The Bank of Spain said Friday that the country is facing severe problems securing funds and immediate help from the economy wasn’t likely. “The most recent episode of the sovereign debt crisis is having very severe consequences for confidence and for financing conditions,” said outgoing Bank of Spain Governor Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez in a speech.

The Economy Ministry said Thursday that Luis Mara Linde will be the next Bank of Spain Governor. The 67-year old has been working at the central bank since 1983.

Dukic and others said right now, markets are only looking at a bank bailout for Spain, and not the entire country, helping to contain some panic. The yield on Spain’s 10-year government bond /quotes/zigman/4869131/delayed ES:10YR_ESP +2.56%  shot above 6.7% last week, to 2012 highs for the year so far, and also close to the 7% level, which precipitated bailouts for Greece and Italy. The yield on Friday rose 16.1 basis points to 6.24%.

“If markets events accelerate the ongoing capital reversal, and spreads continue to widen, given the contagion to other weak economies (eg, Italy has been trading at a spread versus Spain of around 30 to 70 basis points for 10-year bonds), it would be unlikely that the (bailout) program could be circumscribed to the banks only or even to Spain alone,” said Antonio Garcia Pascual, chief economist for southern Europe in a note.

“And for that, there are no sufficient rescue funds readily available,” Pascual said.

Late Thursday, Fitch Ratings downgraded Spain’s debt rating by three notches to BBB, which is just two levels above junk status. “Spain’s high level of foreign indebtedness has rendered it especially vulnerable to contagion from the ongoing crisis in Greece,” said Fitch in a statement.

It added that the “much reduced financing flexibility” of Spanish government is hampering its ability to intervene decisively to help restructure the banking sector and has “increased the likelihood of external financial support.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-6-8 22:54 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-9 21:06 | 显示全部楼层
The euro-zone crisis, which lately is centered around financial and social upheaval in Spain and Greece, will continue to play a key role in determining investor sentiment next week.

Spain banks, Greece
On Friday, speculation grew that Spain could soon ask for outside help to shore up its banks. Reuters reported euro-zone officials would talk via teleconference Saturday to discuss Spain’s situation, and that Madrid could make a request for European assistance before the end of the day.

However, Spanish government officials said that they wouldn’t make any decisions at least until after a group of reports on the country’s economy were released. Read more about the economic crisis in Spain.

Greece, and the possibility Athens will take the country out of the euro, could also return as a cause for concern -- or calm -- ahead of June 17 elections.

On Friday, President Barack Obama took a hard line with Greece, saying it would be a mistake for the country to leave the euro zone, and also calling upon the continents’ leaders to boost Europe’s banking sector. Read more about Obama's take on the financial crisis in Europe.

Late Friday, Moody’s Investors Service said, as “Spain moves closer to the need for direct external support from its European partners, the increased risk to the country’s creditors may prompt further rating actions.” Also if Greece exits the euro, Moody’s warned, it could lead to additional pressures on the ratings of other European countries. Read more on Moody's.

“Of course, we will continue to see the ongoing drama from the reality show we call Europe,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist with Wells Capital Management. “This is going to continue to play out.”

China data deluge
Chinese data will be closely watched for signs that country’s economy is slowing more dramatically than previously projected. Over the weekend, China is scheduled to release its latest data on inflation, industrial production and retail sales for May, as well as monthly trade results.

Earlier this week, China’s central bank surprised markets around the world when it cut interest rates in an attempt to show support for economic growth. Read more about the Chinese interest-rate cuts.

“I think we’re going to see a focus, again, on the macro-economic picture,” said Brian Lazorishak, portfolio manager with Chase Investment Counsel. “There’s some U.S. economic data coming out. Everybody’s also on hold, waiting for the next shoe to drop in Europe.”

Shares of Apple /quotes/zigman/68270/quotes/nls/aapl AAPL +1.50% , the world’s most-valuable company by market capitalization and the biggest Nasdaq component, could move Monday when it launches its first gathering of developers since last October’s death of its co-founder and iconic chief executive, Steve Jobs.

Apple hasn’t said if current CEO Tim Cook will deliver the conference’s keynote address, as Jobs often did. The company has said it will give updates on Mountain Lion, the next upgrade to the Mac PC operating system, and iOS, the operating system for the iPad and iPhone.

As Apple hasn’t upgraded its line of iMac computers for more than a year, some analysts also expect Apple to unveil a new line of Macs in time for the back-to-school shopping season. Read more about what Apple could unveil at its developers gathering.

U.S. jobs, factory output
Among the U.S. data likely to get attention will be the first-time jobless claims for the week of June 6-9, with 377,000 claims forecast.

The U.S. industrial production figures for May are also expected to have some bearing on the market on Friday. Economists polled by MarketWatch expect a monthly decline of 0.1%. And the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June, which is also scheduled to come out Friday, is expected to slide to 78 from 79.3 in May. See Marketwatch’s economic calendar.

Oil futures, which on Friday snapped a five-week losing streak but ended lower at $84.10 a barrel, could also take the spotlight as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets in Vienna to discuss targets and elect a new secretary general. Read on oil, OPEC.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-9 21:13 | 显示全部楼层
Moody's Investors Service said late Friday that developments in Spain and Greece may prompt downgrades of other European countries. While Spain's bank problems are mostly limited to the country, they could prove damaging to the sovereign rating of Italy, which is relying more on the European Central Bank, Moody's said. On the other hand, the rising risk of a Greek exit from the euro zone places particular pressure on the credit ratings of Cyprus, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain, the agency said. "However, should Greece leave the euro, posing a threat to the euro's continued existence, Moody's would review all euro area sovereign ratings, including those of the Aaa nations," it said in a statement.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-9 21:20 | 显示全部楼层




































[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-11-3 23:57 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-16 10:51 | 显示全部楼层
“The overwhelming focus of this G-20 is going to be reflecting … the critical importance of global growth and global recovery, and the European piece is the most central piece at the moment,” according to Michael Froman, a senior White House adviser to President Barack Obama.

Obama will travel to Los Cabos, Mexico on Monday and Tuesday for talks with leaders of the G-20, a group of the most influential global economies including the established industrial powers in Europe and North America, as well as emerging markets such as Brazil, South Korea and India.

The meeting gets under way on Monday night with discussions on the global economy. The leaders are also expected to talk about global flash points like Syria and Iran.

But White House officials said that concern over the deepening European crisis would get the bulk of the attention. “Europe will be at the center of discussions in Mexico,” said Lael Brainard, Treasury undersecretary for international affairs. “The stakes are high for all of us.”

Brainard pointed out she saw a “growing recognition” in Europe of the need to support growth in the face of a weaker outlook. There might have to be “recalibration” of some of the austerity measures now in place, she said.

European leaders won’t be making decisions at the summit, the officials said.

Rather, they said they want the European officials to discuss their “vision” for resolving the crisis, with the talks as a “catalyst” for future actions at the upcoming Europe summit later in June.

Jacob Kirkegaard, a research fellow at the Peterson Institute, said he expected the EU council to take a significant step forward on the issue of a banking union. This would make the European Central Bank more willing to go big or act decisively to help calm the crisis.

Just ahead of the G-20 talks, Greeks will be voting in an election that is seen by many as a referendum of whether the country should stay in the euro zone.

Brainard said Greece faces what she called “a complex political situation.” European and Greek officials must find a way to keep Greece in the euro zone, she added.

Kirkegaard said there could be an equally negative reaction in global markets to either the far-left Syriza party winning the election, or a failure for any one party to form a governing coalition.

In the short run, he elaborated, the ECB would respond by restarting its securities-markets program by purchasing additional Spanish and Italian debt.

Asked what steps the United States might take if there was market turmoil on Monday in the wake of the Greek elections, Brainard replied that the government “always” has tools to combat such events.

It may take some time for the full outcome of the Greek elections to become clear, she noted.

Obama will have a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday in their first meeting in three years. The president also will hold talks with Chnese President Hu-Jintao.

Experts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics said the G-20 should work with Russia and China to double the International Monetary Fund’s crisis-response capital to $1 trillion.

Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute, said member countries should find a way to convince emerging countries, including China, Russia, oil-exporting countries and others to contribute more to the $430 billion fund.

In return for funds from emerging countries including China, Europe must agree to give up some influence at the IMF, he added. “We think that is totally reasonable and long overdue and should be put in place, and this [G-20 summit] is the time to do it.”

Late Friday, the executive board of the International Monetary Fund finalized the details of its $430 billion crisis capital fund, and said it would only draw on the new resources if its existing funds were low, the agency announced late Friday.

The rules agreed by the board “envisage that the IMF would only draw on the new agreements after it has committed most of its existing quota and NAB (New Agreement to Borrow) resources,” the organization said in a statement.

Bergsten also said the immediate problem in Europe is that the withdrawal of bank deposits that could trigger a crisis. In response, a banking union could create a pan-European deposit-insurance fund for the larger European institutions ‘that would restore confidence and quell bank runs, even in Greece.”

Kirkegaard said that he believed there has been much too close a relationship between European banks and their national bank regulators.

Morris Goldstein, senior fellow at the Peterson, said the key question is whether Germany is willing to take on the potential liability of a European-wide deposit insurance
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-16 11:21 | 显示全部楼层
If the American economy falters again, the most likely culprit will be that classic enemy of growth: uncertainty.

Businesses are mainly worried now about two things. They are uncertain whether the financial crisis in Europe will spill over into the U.S. And they are uncertain whether a divided Congress can forestall big tax increases and sharp spending cuts scheduled to take place in 2013 — the so-called fiscal cliff.

The combination of tax hikes and spending cuts could dampen demand at time when the economy is still fragile.

The upshot: businesspeople might not add as many new workers in 2012 or invest as much money in their enterprises as previously planned. Inevitably that would mean slower U.S. growth, the prospect of which would endanger President Obama’s reelection chances in the fall.

“I think we’re in a tough position for the next three or four or five months,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein said in a recent MSNBC interview. “There’s a lot of uncertainty.”

“The future remains uncertain for small-business owners,” the National Federal of Independent Business said this week in its monthly outlook survey. “Many [are] tentative to expand their businesses or hire more workers in the coming months.”

“There’s tremendous uncertainty in terms of tax policy,” said George Mokrzan, chairman of the economic advisory committee of the American Bankers Association.

Same old complaints
Complaints about uncertainty are nothing new, of course, especially regarding government policy. Businesses have regularly complained about government intervention in the economy since the rise of the modern U.S. regulatory state during the New Deal era in the 1930s.

The complaints have been especially intense during the Obama administration, which has promoted thousands of new rules in energy, finance and health care.

Yet trying to find out how uncertainty influences the decisions of businesspeople is no easy thing. A number of surveys aim to measure to expectations of executives, but they tend to be lagging indicators that change on a dime.

“Uncertainty is hard to quantify,” said Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo. “It has an effect, but it’s hard to measure.”

Still, the effects of uncertainty are real. Just look at last year’s debt-limit showdown in Washington over whether to increase the amount of money the federal government could borrow. The threat of U.S. default caused the economy to slow sharply in mid-summer before lawmakers struck an 11th-hour deal.

The effects of uncertainty also appear to be reflected in a wide range of economic data.

The pace of U.S. hiring, for example, has slowed to an average of 73,000 in the past two months from 252,000 a month in the winter. Retail spending has also tapered off as the decline in hiring, plunge in stock prices and negative headlines about Europe undermine the confidence of consumers. Read more on retail sales.

As a result, economists are busy cutting their projections for second-quarter U.S. growth. A bevy of Wall Street firms reduced estimates on Wednesday. Many now expect gross domestic product to expand at a slower pace in the second quarter compared to the first three months of the year, when the economy grew at a mediocre 1.9% rate.

Critics of the White House, including Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney, say the unusually slow recovery since the end of the recession in mid-2009 is largely attributable to the Obama administration’s policies. In a speech to corporate executives this week, Romney accused Obama of being the most “anti-business” president in modern history. Read story on Romney comments.

Well-known conservative economists such as Stanford professor John B. Taylor and Harvard professor Robert Barro echo that view. They say the Obama administration’s frequent interventions in the economy have retarded the recovery by raising the cost of doing business and making it harder for companies to plan.

“This approach has failed for three years,” Barro wrote in the Wall Street Journal last week. Read Barro’s column.

Mainstream economists acknowledge that uncertainty plays a role, but they say the biggest problem with the economy is lack of demand. If people bought more goods and services, businesses would hire and expand regardless of their concerns about government rules and regulations.

“Business leaders may complain about uncertainty but when asked what would get them hiring again, the standard answer is simply more demand,” said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.

Supporters of the president, for their part, also point out the president was dealt a terrible economic hand — he took over during the worst recession arguably since the Great Depression.

They also blame a number of events beyond Obama’s control such as a global spike in gas prices, a huge Japanese earthquake and the financial meltdown in Europe, for the slow recovery.

Fiscal cliff
Obama probably cannot do much to help Europe to resolve its financial crisis given political constraints at home, but the fiscal cliff is another matter.

Large tax cuts passed during the Bush presidency are set to expire on Jan. 1, 2013 and federal spending could be slashed, mainly on defense, unless Democrats and Republicans reach a compromise.

Although the prevailing view in Washington is that the two parties will strike a deal, the likelihood of compromise before the November election is small.

Obama might win over Republicans if he agrees to extend all the Bush tax cuts and accept modest reductions in federal spending outside of defense. Pro-business groups that lean Republican, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, say they will push conservatives to accept such a deal if the president offers one.

Yet if the president and Congress fail to act before November, the uncertainty over Washington policy is expected to grow — perhaps causing the economy to shrink. Companies have to make longer-term plans based on current or pending law and cannot assume Washington will act as they wish.

“Business decisions do not have the luxury of waiting for investment and hiring plans,” said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist of Mizuho Securities. “In the wake of this uncertainty, the rational CEO errs on the conservative side.”
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-16 11:35 | 显示全部楼层
Monday, June 18
President Barack Obama participates in G-20 meeting in Los Cabos, Mexico, first of two days.

10 a.m.: Home builders’ index for June, released by the National Home Builders Association.

10 a.m.: Job openings for April, released by the Labor Department.

Tuesday, June 19
8:30 a.m.: Housing starts for May, released by the Commerce Department.

9 a.m.: Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee begins two-day meeting on interest rates and monetary policy.

9:30 a.m.: J.P. Morgan Chase /quotes/zigman/272085/quotes/nls/jpm JPM +1.10%   CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon, and Comptroller of the Currency Thomas Curry, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Schapiro, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Acting Chairman Martin Gruenberg testify on bank supervision and risk management in lift of J.P. Morgan’s recent trading loss, at the House Financial Services Committee.

10 a.m.: Hearing on how to confront the looming fiscal crisis, at the Senate Finance Committee.

10 a.m.: Hearing on EPA air standards for hydraulically fractured natural gas wells and oil and natural gas storage, at the Senate Environment & Public Works subcommittee on Clean Air and Nuclear Safety.

Wednesday, June 20
9:30 a.m.: Hearing to examine the IPO process, and its impact on ordinary investors, at the Senate Banking subcommittee on Securities, Insurance and Investment.

12:30 p.m.: FOMC announcement on interest rates, at the Fed.

1:30 p.m.: Hearing on mortgage disclosures, and how to cut the red tape for consumers and small businesses, at the House Financial Services subcommittee on Insurance, Housing and Community Opportunity.

2:15 p.m.: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke holds quarterly press conference, at the Fed.

Thursday, June 21
8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, at the Labor Department.

9 a.m.: Hearing on the 2012 Annual Report of the Social Security Board of Trustees, at the House Ways and Means Committee.

10 a.m.: Philly Fed factory index for June, released by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank.

10 a.m.: Existing home sales for May, released by the National Association of Realtors.

10 a.m.: Leading economic indicators for May, released by the Conference Board.

10 a.m.: FHFA home prices for April, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

10 a.m.: SEC Chairman Schapiro testifies at hearing on money market mutual fund reforms, at the Senate Banking Committee.

10 a.m.: Hearing on Russia’s entry into the World Trade Organization and the implications for the United States, at the Senate Finance Committee.

Friday, June 22
No scheduled events or economic indicators.

Sunday, June 17
Greek elections
Monday, JUNE 18
1:30 a.m.Reserve Bank of India decision8%
Tuesday, JUNE 19
4:30 a.m.U.K. consumer prices, year-on-yearMay3%
5 a.m.German ZEW sentimentJun10.8
Wednesday, JUNE 20
4:30 a.m.Bank of England minutes
4:30 a.m.U.K. claimant count changeMay-13,700
8 a.m.Norges Bank decision1.5%
Thursday, JUNE 21
4 a.m.Euro-zone advance manufacturing PMIJun45.1
4 a.m.Euro-zone advance services PMIJun46.7
4:30 a.m.U.K. retail salesMay-1%
7 a.m.Central Bank of Turkey decision5.75%
Friday, JUNE 22
4 a.m.German Ifo business climateJun106.9
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-16 11:47 | 显示全部楼层
Investors have begun preparing for a dramatic new stage in the European debt crisis ahead of a weekend Greek vote that could help determine the future of the euro zone.

In a sign of the heightened tension, global markets were boosted late in the week on reports that central bankers stand ready to act in the case of a credit crunch following the Greek elections.

Edward Hugh, an independent economist and well-known blogger based in Barcelona, said investors are beginning to make calls as to whether the euro will disintegrate or ultimately be saved. “I think investors are trying to cover themselves both ways,” said Hugh. “If you buy German [credit-default swaps], it’s win-win.”

A CDS is a financial swap agreement under which the buyer is compensated by the seller in the event of a default or another credit event. The cost of insuring against a German government default has risen since the beginning of the year. Data from Markit show German 5-year CDS spreads have been widening since April as the euro-zone crisis has heated up.

By buying German CDSs, Hugh said, investors protect against an incapacity of one or more of Europe’s sovereign nations to repay debt. And alongside fears that sovereign nations will be unable to repay debt are fears that the currency union itself could eventually collapse.

“I know some investors think the euro is going to survive, but it’s hard for me to see how Spain, Italy and even France are going to manage a Greek exit,” if that is what happens if the electoral result goes against the pro-austerity party, said Jacques Porta, asset manager at OFI Gestion Privee in Paris.

The weekend Greek election, though clearly important, is not a binary event that will determine the outcome of the euro zone, though it will play a large role. “I think that it seems there will be very difficult times for the euro even beyond the Greek election,” said Porta.

Hugh said that, in any case, Germany is likely to get the short stick and pressure on the euro could result if the German public becomes increasingly unhappy with shouldering more and more responsibility for euro-zone woes.

“If they assume responsibility for European fiscal union, they’ll load up on more debt, [and] if the euro disintegrates or Greece or anyone leaves, a lot of people will be defaulting on them,” said Hugh.

A continuing stream of bad news out of Spain — downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service to one notch above junk and further into junk territory by Egan-Jones late Thursday — pushed yields on the 10-year government bond /quotes/zigman/4869131/delayed ES:10YR_ESP +0.44%  to all-time highs on Thursday. Moody’s warned that the country may need to ask for more money down the road, beyond the week-old bank-bailout plan that has been panned by financial markets.

Italian bond yields have also been climbing virtually in step with Spain’s after yields rose at an auction of short- and longer-dated paper.

Bond yields have also been rising in such “core” European countries as Germany and the U.K., with some investors retreating to the Swiss franc. The Swiss National Bank on Thursday vowed a solid defence of the level of 1.20 francs per euro and warned that the rising currency will be a weight on the economy for the rest of 2012.

Tail risks
“The market sees two tail risks, and both are not good for Germany,” said Marc Chandler, head of global currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. “For the first, there is a movement towards greater fiscal union under which condition Germany will have to share a greater part of its wallet, balance sheet and credit.”

Another risk involves disintegration of the euro, for which Germany could have significant obligations. Still, Chandler said that if investors are thinking the euro zone is going to break up, it isn’t being reflected in the dollar-euro exchange rate, which has recently held in a range around the $1.25 level.

He pointed to the online prediction market Intrade, where investors can buy or sell shares in an event they think will or will not occur. Investors are currently betting there is a 38.5% chance that a country currently using the euro will exit before midnight Dec. 31, so a clear majority believes that will not come to pass.

Hugh said the euro probably has about three to six months to do what it needs to do for survival, though International Monetary Fund President Christine Lagarde has said officials have just three months to save the single currency.

The process of figuring out whether the euro will stay or go could be lengthy. The EU is holding a summit June 28-29, but European Council President Herman Rompuy has said it would only involve “building blocks,” with detailed plans not available until October, media reports said.

Apart from the Greek elections, Chandler pointed to several additional intensifying risk factors, saying Cyprus is likely to ask for a bailout soon, Portugal may need an extension on its aid by year-end, Ireland is asking for the same deal for its banks as Spain’s banks got, and Italy is increasingly a “hot spot.”

Plus, of course, the honeymoon is about to end for French President François Hollande, who, Chandler said, will soon have to come up with a budget that includes spending cuts.

“It’s going to be a long, hot summer for investors,” said Chandler.

Christian Tegllund Blaabjerg, chief economist at FIH Erhvervsbank, believes a bet against the euro zone or a Greek exit is a long shot, he said. “I do not believe there is any chance Greece will leave the euro zone.

“First of all,” he explained, “Greece cannot afford it.”

Blaabjerg referenced forecasts that the purchasing power in the country would drop 50%, with costs of such items as a liter of milk doubling. Other estimates, he said, point to shrinkage by nearly 40% of Greek gross domestic product in the wake of such an event. “No society,” he said, “could sustain that.”

Blaabjerg said that, while clearly trades are being made on a possible Greek exit, what is likely going on is that Greek politicians are seeking an easing of their budget-deficit goals and are willing to put scare into the world that the country could exit the euro if some leniency is not shown it. For 2014 Greece is expected to bring its budget deficit to under 3% — it was 9.3% in 2011 — which has little chance of happening, said Blaabjerg.

He admitted that further risks exist, among them Spain’s banking crisis and potential problems in Italy, but, ultimately, Blaabjerg said, Germany is going to be the reason the euro survives, because it has so much vested in it, from history to the fate of its own export market. A collapse of the euro would mean the return of the deutschemark, which would be reborn as an extremely powerful currency, rendering the country’s goods extremely expensive abroad.

“Germany, as a huge nation and the most powerful in Europe, has learned from history. They will do anything they possibly can to make the euro zone survive,” said Blaabjerg. “If [that means] that they will have to write out very, very big checks, they will write out very, very big checks.”

Addressing those who might still wish to wager against such an outcome, Chandler warned that retail investors generally have no business buying complicated instruments such as German CDSs, which they neither need nor typically understand.

A better idea in this climate, he said, is cash, suggesting noninstitutional investors stash investment money in U.S. dollars or Swiss francs. Even the negative yield on the 2-year Swiss bond is preferable to losing funds elsewhere, he said.

“Will Rogers once said that sometimes the return of your money is better than the return on your money,” Chandler said. “We are living in a time where cash preservation is a key driver.”
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-18 21:02 | 显示全部楼层
The Federal Reserve is likely to extend its Operation Twist program at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, a growing number of Fed watchers said over the weekend.

“We now expect the Fed to ease policy further at next week’s meeting,” Barclays Capital economist Dean Maki said in a note to clients. “We see a short-term extension of Operation Twist as the most likely outcome.”

Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said more and more economists were jumping on the “bandwagon” of an extended Twist.

The move would serve several purposes, but would mainly show the Fed’s resolve to act and help shore up confidence, said Millan Mulraine, economist at TD Securities.

The current $400 billion Twist program is set to expire at the end of June. It gets its name from the Fed trying to twist the yield curve by selling short-term securities that it holds while buying longer-term securities.

Analysts said the Fed has about $180 billion of short-term Treasurys left to sell. There was some speculation that the Fed might buy mortgage-backed securities in the new round.

The risks of extreme financial contagion subsided Sunday night in the wake of the Greek election. Economists said this would lower the odds a massive new bond-buying program, known as the third quantitative easing or QE3. See report on Greek election results.

The Fed has bought over $2.3 trillion of Treasurys and housing-related assets to bring down interest rates. The Fed’s traditional short-term interest-rate policy tool — the fed funds target — has been close to zero since December 2008.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke certainly didn’t endorse more easing in his testimony to Congress last week, and as a result, some analysts think the U.S. central bank will stay on hold to see how things pan out over the next few months. But they admit it is a close call.

One factor that still isn’t clear is how much of the current economic slowdown is due to weather.

Analysts think that the warm winter may have brought forward some economic activity, leading to slower growth over the past few months.

It behooves the Fed to wait until the true economic trend is discernible,” Gregory said.

But the economists who predict more Twist say it was May’s weak retail sales data that will convince the Fed to jump back in and ease. See charts of recently published economic data.

After the weak consumer spending data, second-quarter gross domestic product is forecast to come in below 2%, the fourth period out of the past five with such sluggish growth.

Another way to bring down rates would be to push out the Fed’s guidance that they are likely to keep rates steady beyond late 2014. But most analysts are doubtful that Fed officials will take this step.

Here’s a calendar of the Fed’s new schedule.
2012:

• June 19-20; Chairman’s press conference

• July 31-August 1

• September 12-13; Chairman’s press conference

• October 23-24

• December 11-12; Chairman’s press conference

2013 (tentative):

• January 29-30

• March 19-20; Chairman’s press conference

• April 30-May 1

• June 18-19; Chairman’s press conference

• July 30-31

• September 17-18; Chairman’s press conference

• October 29-30

• December 17-18; Chairman’s press conference

2014 (tentative)

• January 28-29

SocGen expects $600 billion QE3 from Fed
The Federal Reserve will unveil a program to expand its balance sheet by $600 billion at the conclusion of its policy board meeting Wednesday, marking the third round of quantitative easing, according to weekend forecasts by analysts at Societe Generale. The French bank's head of global economics, Michala Marcussenm, said she expects the Federal Reserve's asset buying program to be directed 40% at mortgage-backed securities and 60% towards U.S. Treasuries. "With economic data signaling stall speed growth for the U.S., we expect the Fed to lower its current 2012 growth outlook from 2.7%, narrowing the gap to our own forecast of 1.8%," Marcussen said in a note Sunday. She added the Federal Reserve could also extend its Operation Twist program, expanding it by $150 billion. The program gets its name from the Fed trying to twist the yield curve by selling short-term securities that it holds while buying longer-term securities.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-18 21:23 | 显示全部楼层
Greece's conservative New Democracy party leader Antonis Samaras Monday began talks with peers on forming a pro-bailout coalition government after eking out a slim victory in Sunday's elections but failing to secure an outright majority.

Mr. Samaras expressed optimism he could clinch a deal on a cross-party government, which could end a weekslong political stalemate and pave the way for Greece to resume negotiations with international creditors on badly needed aid. [url=][/url]







"I will aim to immediately form a long-lasting national 'salvation' government with the parties that believe in the country's European future," Mr. Samaras told Greek President Karolos Papoulias, who instructed him to form a coalition government. "I believe there is room for success."

Mr. Samaras first met with Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the leftist Syriza party, which finished second in Sunday's elections and has built momentum after campaigning on a fierce antiausterity ticket.

After the meeting Mr. Tsipras urged Mr. Samaras to form a government that would seek to renegotiate the terms of a euro 130 billion ($164.32 billion) loan agreement "as soon as possible," even though he made clear that his party wouldn't be part of it.

"Greece's significant and reinforced ability to renegotiate the terms of its loan deal must not be wasted," Mr. Tsipras said. "We won't stand in the way but we won't cede this right that was earned with our efforts." Mr. Tsipras said that his party will conduct an "effective and responsible opposition" and will aim "to intervene in a combative and responsible way."

Mr. Samaras, who said he would continue talks after Mr. Tsipras rejected his offer, is scheduled to meet next with Evangelos Venizelos, the head of the socialist Pasok party, at 1100 ET.

With almost 100% of the vote counted, New Democracy was backed by 29.7% of voters, giving it 129 seats in the 300-seat Parliament. Syriza is second with 26.9% of the vote, or 71 seats.

New Democracy's likely coalition partner, the Pasok party, has garnered 12.3% of the vote, or 33 seats, allowing the two pro-bailout parties to form a majority government if they agree on a coalition. Another potential coalition partner is the Democratic Alliance party, which garnered 6.3% of the vote, amounting to 17 seats.

According to Greek law, Mr. Samaras has three days to strike up a cross-party deal, although New Democracy party officials believe that he might be able to do so in less time, depending on how talks progress on issues such as who will lead the coalition government.

"We hear some noise from Democratic Left that they would participate in a coalition if Samaras is not prime minister. That's out of the question," a New Democracy official said. "If necessary the coalition will be made up of Pasok and New Democracy."

Hopes that a coalition government is close at hand pushed Greek stocks more than 6% higher in early trading, led by gains in banking shares.

After May's inconclusive elections, Greece's political parties failed to reach a cross-party deal despite 10 days of talks, which led to Sunday's second round of elections. This time around, analysts see New Democracy teaming up with Pasok, possibly even with the participation of the Democratic Left party because doubts over the country's future in the euro zone have grown sharply since the last elections.

"There is no comparison with today and a month ago. The stakes are much higher," said Anthony Livanios, a political analyst. "The Pasok and New Democracy agendas have a common denominator. Greeks know that they must go ahead with reforms or leave the euro zone."

Mr. Samaras has been an unequivocal backer of Greece's euro-zone membership, even though he reiterated Monday that he wants to tweak the austerity program Greece has promised its European and international creditors.

"We will abide by the agreement but at the same time we're seeking an agreement on policies that will give the Greek people room to breathe," he said.
In the weeks leading up to Sunday's vote, Mr. Samaras sought to turn the elections into a de facto referendum on the euro, saying a vote for Syriza would be tantamount to voting for a return to the drachma, Greece's former currency.

Mr. Venizelos, who like Mr. Samaras also called for a national unity government, urged Mr. Papoulias to speed up party talks to ensure that a new government is formed quickly.

The new government will face huge hurdles, with a central administration threatened by a cash crunch within weeks, an economy in free fall and an angry public exhausted by two years of austerity measures.

The first task facing the new government will be to come up with euro 11.5 billion or more of new austerity measures demanded by the country's creditors, which could further inflame public opinion.

Late Sunday, euro-zone finance ministers said they expected Greece's troika of official lenders—the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank—to return to Athens as soon as a new government is in place. A troika review must take place every three months for Greece to receive the next tranche of its euro 130 billion bailout package.

In recent weeks, the euro zone's debt crisis has spread to Spain, the euro zone's fourth-largest economy, forcing it to seek a bailout for its banks. It threatens to engulf Italy, severely testing the bloc's financial ability to handle the crisis.

Mr. Samaras has been a staunch supporter of Greece's euro membership, even though he says he wants to loosen the austerity program to combat the country's deep recession.

A New Democracy-led coalition with Pasok, which was projected to win about 12.3% of the vote and 33 seats in Parliament, will have to decide how much of the bailout deal to try to renegotiate with Europe. Some analysts said Mr. Samaras might also try to lure the Democratic Left party into joining a coalition in order to build a bigger majority in Parliament.

Officials in Germany and other countries have suggested there might be scope to tweak the timing of austerity measures in order to help Greece's economy to recover. But Berlin has so far been adamant that it won't agree to increase the size of Greece's loan package, meaning that higher Greek public spending in the near term would need to be offset by deeper cuts later.

Any increase in Greece's loan deal would need approval in Germany's Parliament, where many lawmakers feel they have lent unreliable politicians in Athens more than enough money already. German politicians say major concessions for Greece would be unfair to Portugal and Ireland, which have implemented their bailout promises more vigorously than Greece's squabbling leaders.

But Europe will soon have to confront a financial shortfall in its bailout plan for Greece. The deal approved only in March is already off track thanks to Greece's tanking economy. Privatization receipts underpinning the plan are unlikely to materialize while doubts over Greece's survival in the euro persist.

At some point, an expansion of the international loan package for Greece is inevitable, euro-zone policy makers admit. But any relaxation of the overhauls demanded of Athens is unlikely to be more than cosmetic, these officials say.

One of the first challenges for a new Greek government will be to come up quickly with euro 11.5 billion of additional austerity measures, in order to secure the country's next portion of international aid. The announcement of fresh public-sector cuts, on top of two years of painful retrenchment, could unleash a new wave of strikes and street protests in Greece, threatening the new government's stability.

Political observers said a broader coalition government may still find it hard to take the painful decisions demanded by international creditors.

"A New Democracy-led government backed by Pasok and the Democratic Left is a mix that can only last for a few months," said George Kyrtsos, a newspaper publisher and political commentator who was also a candidate with far-right-wing party Laos, which failed to enter Parliament. "Even if it survives, it won't be able to abide by the bailout program," he said.

In the campaign, Mr. Samaras sought to turn the elections into a de facto referendum on the euro, saying a vote for austerity opponents Syriza would be tantamount to voting for a return to the drachma, Greece's former currency.

Fractionally more voters appear to have believed Mr. Samaras than believed Syriza's claim that Europe wouldn't dare to cut off Greece's financial lifeline for fear of financial chaos.

Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos called for a national-unity government including the Democratic Left and Syriza as well as New Democracy. He urged the formation of a government as quickly as possible, in order to end the political vacuum that has further undermined confidence in Greece's economy since its inconclusive May 6 elections.

"Greece must have a new government tomorrow," Mr. Venizelos said late Sunday. "There isn't a day to lose."
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-18 21:26 | 显示全部楼层
Spanish banks could need additional provisions for bad loans worth up to euro 150 billion ($189 billion) according to the results of an independent audit due to be released later this week, business daily El Confidencial reported on Monday.

The newspaper, citing various sources, noted that total includes provisions across the retail mortgage portfolio. Yields on 10-year Spanish government bonds shot above the psychologically important level of 7% on Monday as earlier cheer over a victory for the pro-austerity, pro-euro New Democracy party faded.

Data released earlier in the day showed bad loans for banks continued to rise in April.

The Economics Ministry said Friday that the first results of the independent audit stress-testing of Spanish banks would be revealed June 21, which would show how much the banks need for support and which institutions are most vulnerable.

The results of a second stage of the audit, which would value the banks, will be known July 31.

The deadline for a group of auditors to present full reports on the capital needs of Spain’s financial sector has been pushed to September from July 31, a Spanish central bank source said Tuesday.

The move has been agreed with Spain’s government, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank, as well as the auditing firms — Deloitte, KPMG, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Ernst & Young — themselves, this person added.

The delay is intended to provide the auditors more time to complete their evaluations of the banks’ books and also responds to the fact that many Spanish companies and government institutions are only thinly staffed in August, a traditional holiday month when the cabinet and parliament rarely meet, this person said.

Earlier Tuesday, the Spanish financial daily Expansion said the central bank had recently notified the auditors studying the books of the country’s banks about the changed deadline.

The auditors are conducting the second phase of an external overview of Spain’s financial sector.

Later this week, consultancies Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger are expected to present a preliminary estimate of capital needs for the entire sector.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-6-19 22:19 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-18 21:27 | 显示全部楼层

China to Start Trial Program to Boost Banks' Lending???

BEIJING—China is expected to soon kick-start a trial program that would allow banks to turn loans into securities and free up funds for lending at a time when Beijing is seeking ways to bolster growth.

The securitization program could remove as much as 50 billion yuan ($7.9 billion) worth of loans from balance sheets, according to senior Chinese banking executives. Endorsed by China's banking regulators and the Ministry of Finance, it represents another step in China's efforts to revamp its creaky financial system into one that relies more on market forces.

It also comes as Chinese authorities are stepping up ...
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-19 22:22 | 显示全部楼层

EU expects revised plan with Greece this summer

The issue will likely be discussed during this week's meeting of euro-zone finance ministers.

"We have listened carefully (to our euro-zone partners) and it appears of course that any MOU is changeable."

The official said the ultimate goal of making Greece's debt sustainable couldn't be jeopardized.

"Debt sustainability is one of the two targets, there are quite clear views in the eurogroup on the fact that debt sustainability cannot be compromised."

European leaders said Monday that they were ready to help a new Greek government, as long as it respects the agreements that were part of a joint bailout program reached in February. Heads of European countries have expressed a "willingness to do more to support Greece in terms of growth-enhancing measures, provided, of course, that Greece respects the commitments that have been already taken," European Union President José Manuel Barroso told reporters in Los Cabos, Mexico ahead of the meeting of Group of 20 leaders. Barroso said Greece already has made impressive measures to reduce its budget, but that the country has lagged in needed structural reforms. Representatives of the so-called "troika" -- the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank -- will go to Athens as soon as a new government is formed to assess how Europe can help Greece meet the bailout targets, according to Barroso.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-6-19 22:25 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-24 12:25 | 显示全部楼层

Europe to remain in focus for next week

Events out of Europe will likely set the tone of the coming week as U.S. economic data are expected to continue to disappoint and a few companies report earnings.

One of the most important things expected out next week are details on Spain’s bank-bailout plan, according to Michael Jones, chief investment officer of RiverFront Investment Group.

“Now is the critical moment to give us the details,” he said. “The market went crazy this week when they didn’t give details.”

Spain will formally apply to the European Union on Monday for aid to its banking sector, according to Finance Minister Luis de Guindos on Friday.

The country rattled markets this past week, derailing positive sentiment out of Greece’s election that favored parties supporting the bailout for its own crisis, after reports that bad loans among Spanish banks had reached their highest level in more than a decade. As a result, the yield on Spain’s 10-year Treasury note redlined past 7%.

Up to 100 billion euros ($126 billion) has been pledged by the euro zone to help bail out Spain’s banks. Stress test results by consulting group Oliver Wyman released Thursday estimated the banks would need $64 billion to $78 billion through 2014. Also on Friday, the European Central Bank eased loan-collateral requirements.

The most encouraging developments for markets will be if Spain’s banks agree to a plan where preferred stocks are converted into common stocks, much in the way Citigroup Inc. /quotes/zigman/5065548/quotes/nls/c C +0.57%  agreed to convert shares in 2009, and if bailout loans are made senior to all other debts, Jones said. “If they do that it’ll be extremely encouraging to European markets. A lot of bad things happen if they don’t.”

It will be a heavy week for U.S. economic data, and investors will be waiting to see if there’s continued weakness in the economy, said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

U.S. indicators fared poorly in the past week as manufacturing in the Philadelphia region declined, sales of previously owned houses fell and the Federal Reserve cut its growth outlook. Also, the Federal Reserve disappointed stock watchers when it opted for an extension of so-called Operation Twist rather than a full-blown third installment of quantitative easing.

Data in the coming week, however, could be easily trumped by news coming out of the two-day meeting of the European Council in Brussels beginning Thursday, Luschini commented.

He said he was less concerned about Spain, since the country appeared to have enough support to bail out its banks. “I’d look more to European officials as for what might be done in the meeting in Brussels. They need actual solutions. Partial solutions are like no solutions.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande plan to meet late Wednesday, ahead of a European summit, a German government spokesperson told Reuters on Saturday. "The purpose of the meeting is to prepare for the European Council on Thursday and Friday," the spokesperson told the wire service. Hollande is looking for agreement on more than just a growth package, and also wants progress towards European Union banking sector integration and other stability measures, a French diplomatic source told Reuters on Friday.

As for domestic economic indicators, RiverFront’s Jones said he does not see much in the week ahead that will detract from a definite downward pattern.

On Monday, the Chicago Fed national activity index for May is released along with May new-home sales. On Tuesday, the Case-Shiller home-price index for April is released, along with consumer-confidence figures for June.

May durable-goods orders and pending home-sales figures will be released on Wednesday, and on Thursday comes weekly jobless claims and first-quarter GDP figures.

On Friday, the personal-income, consumer-spending, and core personal-consumption expenditure price index comes out for May, in addition to the Chicago purchasing-managers index and UMich consumer-sentiment gauge for June.

Also, a handful of companies on the S&P 500 will be reporting quarterly results over the coming week.

On Monday, for-profit education provider Apollo Group Inc. /quotes/zigman/57542/quotes/nls/apol APOL +0.99%  is scheduled to post fiscal third-quarter results, with H&R Block Inc. /quotes/zigman/219890/quotes/nls/hrb HRB +0.98%  reporting fiscal fourth-quarter results on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, General Mills Inc. /quotes/zigman/227548/quotes/nls/gis GIS +0.21% , McCormick & Co. /quotes/zigman/233262/quotes/nls/mkc MKC +0.23% , Monsanto Co. /quotes/zigman/267799/quotes/nls/mon MON +0.86%  and Paychex Inc. /quotes/zigman/76829/quotes/nls/payx PAYX +0.48%  release their results for the quarter.

Nike Inc. /quotes/zigman/235840/quotes/nls/nke NKE +0.75% , Accenture PLC /quotes/zigman/565535/quotes/nls/acn ACN +1.59% and Family Dollar Stores Inc. /quotes/zigman/226252/quotes/nls/fdo FDO +1.56%  report their results on Thursday, with Constellation Brands Inc. /quotes/zigman/267699/quotes/nls/stz STZ -0.67%  reporting Friday.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-24 20:07 | 显示全部楼层

moody cut banks rating

“The negative impact from funding costs and collateral calls appears modest, especially in light of capital and liquidity improvement since the financial crisis,” said Sandler O’Neill principal analyst Jeffery Harte in a note to clients.

“Although a downgrade is not a positive, we are encouraged that the downgrades were in line or better than expectations and it appears that a headwind has been removed,” Keefe Bruyette & Woods analysts wrote in a research note Friday.

Investors welcomed more good news as the European Central Bank said it is easing its lending rules for banks and accepting a wider range of collateral — including car loans and mortgage-backed securities — in a move widely seen as benefiting struggling Spanish banks
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-6-24 20:19 | 显示全部楼层
Monday, June 25
10 a.m.: New home sales for May, released by the Commerce Department.

Noon: Export-Import Bank Chairman Fred Hochberg discusses U.S. competitiveness and the emergence of state-driven capitalism, at the Center for American Progress.

Tuesday, June 26
President Barack Obama attends fundraisers in Florida.

9 a.m.: Case-Shiller home price index for April, released by Standard & Poor’s.

10 a.m.: Consumer confidence for June, released by the Conference Board.

10 a.m.: Hearing on empowering and protecting current members of the military and veterans in the consumer financial marketplace, at the Senate Banking Committee.

Wednesday, June 27
8:30 a.m.: Durable goods orders for May, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Pending home sales for May, released by the National Association of Realtors.

10 a.m.: Hearing on the interaction of welfare and tax credit programs and the impact on work, at the House Ways and Means Committee.

Thursday, June 28
8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Gross domestic product for the first quarter, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Hearing on the appraisal industry and the regulations impacting the single-family mortgage market, at the House Financial Services subcommittee on Insurance, Housing and Community Opportunity.

10 a.m.: Hearing to review the tax treatment of capital gains in tax reform, at a joint hearing of the Senate Finance and House Ways and Means committees.

10 a.m.: Hearing to examine privacy protections, focusing on industry self-regulation, at the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee.

2 p.m.: Hearing on fractional reserve banking and its impact on monetary policy, at the House Financial Services on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology.

Friday, June 29
8:30 a.m.: Personal income and consumer spending for May, released by the Commerce Department.

9 a.m.: Hearing on the American Energy Initiative, and a focus on EPA’s greenhouse gas regulations, at the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee on Energy and Power.

9:45 a.m.: Chicago PMI report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region in June, released by the Institute of Supply Management.

9:55 a.m.: Consumer sentiment for June, released by the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters.

Markets
Week Ahead: Home Sales, Health CareNext week's economic and business stories to watch include U.S. home-sales data, the Supreme Court's ruling on the health-care act and Research In Motion's earnings

Spain may make an official bank bailout request, there are bond auctions in Italy, Spain and France and Daimler and Standard Chartered report quarterly earnings

Monday, JUNE 25
10:30 a.m.Bank of Israel decision2.5%
Tuesday, JUNE 26
8 a.m.National Bank of Hungary decision7%
Wednesday, JUNE 27
Thursday, JUNE 28
3:55 a.m.German unemploymentJun6.7%
9 a.m.European Union summit
Japan core CPIMay-0.3%
Friday, JUNE 29
5 a.m.Euro-zone CPI, year-on-yearJun2.4%
8:30 a.m.Canada monthly GDP, year-on-yearApr.1.6%
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-7 18:59 | 显示全部楼层
On Monday, the Federal Reserve issues consumer credit data for May, followed by the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ small business index on Tuesday.

The diary gets busier Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve releases minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee and trade deficit data is published. Analyst expectations on the Fed minutes, however, are muted.

“I don’t expect anything significant from the minutes. We got exactly what we expected out of the last meeting — the biggest thing being the extension of Operation Twist — so now we need to let these policies take effect,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors.

Meanwhile, the producer price index and consumer sentiment numbers are slated for Friday. “We’re likely to see PPI numbers decline, and then that’s likely to crack open the door a little bit more for QE3,” said Stone of PNC, referring to a possible third round of quantitative easing from the Fed.

Broadly speaking, investors know what to expect from earnings even as Europe provides no clearer direction, analysts say.

“What’s really driving equity investors at the moment is tail risk. Only if people get a sense that earnings are falling apart and the global economy is even worse than originally thought, then you might see further flight away from equities,” said Stone, adding that “earnings will be weak, but they won’t be disastrous.”

investors may get little respite next week as U.S. companies report earnings expected to bear the scars of a battered global market. “Companies have actually done a remarkable job — margins are at an all-time high, profit growth is in line with sales growth — it’s the macroeconomic factors that have been the real drag,” “[Consensus estimates] have been brought down to a point where even if the environment is difficult, it will be easier for companies to beat,” said Bill Stone, chief investment strategist for PNC Asset Management. “But we still won’t get the kind of blowout we had last quarter.”

Alcoa, J.P. Morgan
Alcoa Inc. unofficially kicks off the reporting cycle late Monday. After having had its consensus estimate slashed almost 50% in the past month, the aluminum maker is now expected to post 5 cents of earnings per share, down from 32 cents last year. Alcoa has been the worst performer on the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA -0.96% in the last year, losing 46%. Read Alcoa earnings preview.

The week builds up to a peak with the much-anticipated earnings announcement from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. /on Friday, the first of the big banks to report. The embattled lender is expected to report profit of 76 cents a share, according to a survey by FactSet.

Of more interest may be the exact size of a trading loss from a complex derivatives strategy that went awry; the loss is expected to top $2 billion.

“The issue will also be how much in hedging losses they really made,” added Stone, referring to the trading loss caused by J.P. Morgan’s London unit.

That trading loss, which crushed J.P. Morgan’s stock in May and tarnished its CEO’s reputation, isn’t the only controversy facing the bank. J.P. Morgan is one of several institutions under investigation for alleged rigging of the London interbank offered rate. Those charges led to a record $452 million fine for Barclays Plc /quotes/zigman/301787 UK:BARC -2.05%  and the departure of the British bank’s chief executive officer. Read more on fine.

Europe meeting Monday

Much of the attention, however, will remain in Europe, as euro-zone finance ministers gather on Monday to flesh out details of the crisis measures they agreed on at the European Union summit last month. On the table are pressing matters over how to use the rescue fund — or the European Stability Mechanism — to aid struggling members Spain and Cyprus; next steps for Greece; as well as when the European Central Bank-led single banking regulator might be formed.

“There’s evidence that investors are willing to bid up market prices based on what’s happening in Europe,” said Keon. “Look at the rally we had from the summit – that was pretty substantial, and not because we got any new information, but just because investors saw some stability in Europe.”

Global policy moves have been the main driver of stocks over the last few weeks.


China is due to report inflation statistics on Monday and second-quarter gross-domestic-product growth on Friday, with expectations for the latter hovering around 7.6% growth year-over-year, according to Reuters.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-8 18:58 | 显示全部楼层

贴两篇博文

上证指数从2011-04-22最高点3067.46点,下跌至今已经历时62周;基于2009-08-04最高点3478.01点——2010-11-11最高点3186.72点,两个峰顶之间运行了65周,因此 理应密切关注大盘从3067.46点下跌65周,势必探明大底!!

    特别提示

    1)鉴于2008-10-28上证探底1664.93点之时,708周均线恰恰是1664点;因此理应密切跟踪708周均线支撑力度,目前708周平均线为2133.37点;

    2)上列图片之中显示上证指数周线RSI指标6RSI1为24.36,理应耐心等待该项指标达到20以下,周线6RSI1达到20以下往往是见底信号;

    3)上证指数周线布林线下轨线,已经连续三周被击穿,因此该布林线下轨线若是连续4至5周被击穿,势必探明底部;

    4)近期大盘从2453.73点下跌至今,已经历时10周啦,下跌13周则是极限;

    5)上证指数周线KDJ指标:目前K值16.47,D24.07,J1.28;如果大盘继续探底,那么该项指标两周之内势必见底;

    6)鉴于上一节气小暑上证收盘指数为2223.58点,已经连续四个节气呈现下跌之势,因此大暑前后,将会探明大底,立秋前后酝酿转势!!!

    综上所述,若不出所料,大盘在二十四节气大暑前后,即将探明大底,立秋前后将会酝酿转势

未来大盘的几个重要的时间窗口是:7月20/23日(22日是农历大暑节气),8月7日,8月10日。其中7月20/23日和8月10日尤其重要,这里形成市场大级别的底部的概率极大!这里所说的“大级别”是指周线级别。就浪型时间而言,5月4日运行到7月20/23日所化的时间,基本上是2132点第一波反弹时间的1.618倍;同时5月4日到7月20日刚好运行55天;再者7月22日是农历大暑。因此有理由相信市场大级别的底部的诞生时间已经很近了。

  空间上,一种极端(也是比较理想的)走势是下周继续震荡筑底,创出新低击破2132点,下探到极限位置1978/2009点;另一种走势采取横盘震荡,向下考验2132点。但是不管何种形式,再次下探,2157点以下是中线良好的分批布局机会!

  操作上:注意大暑节气前后的买进机会!

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-7-15 22:57 编辑 ]
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