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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-17 22:30 | 显示全部楼层
Hengan International Group Co. /quotes/zigman/47751
HK:1044 +0.14%
, Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science & Technology Development Co. /quotes/zigman/613776
HK:1157 -0.64%
, Lenovo Group Ltd. /quotes/zigman/21902
HK:992 -0.29%
, China Longyuan Power Group Corp. /quotes/zigman/47484
HK:916 +0.62%
, Sinopharm Group Co. /quotes/zigman/46384
HK:1099 +0.20%
, Youku Tudou Inc. /quotes/zigman/2786183 /quotes/nls/yoku YOKU -0.01%, and China Construction Bank Corp. /quotes/zigman/35073
HK:939 +0.18%


[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-11-19 21:04 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-17 22:37 | 显示全部楼层
Monday, March 19
President Barack Obama travels to Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Ohio during the week to discuss energy policy.

All day: American Bankers Association holds its annual government relations summit, first of three days.

10 a.m.: Home builders’ index for March, released by the National Association of Home Builders.

Tuesday, March 20
Illinois Republican primary, polls close at 8 pm Eastern

Federal Election Commission releases February fund-raising totals from the presidential campaigns.

Senate scheduled to restart debate on JOBS legislation, time to be announced.

8:30 a.m.: Housing starts for February, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies on the department’s annual report on the state of the international financial system, at the House Financial Services Committee.

10 a.m.: Hearing on the increasing student debt-load, at the Senate Judiciary subcommittee on Administrative Oversight and the Courts.

12:45 p.m.: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers the first of four lectures at the George Washington School of Business.

2:45 p.m.: Hearing on commercial airline safety, at the Senate Commerce subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety and Security.

Wednesday, March 21
8:45 a.m.: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels addresses the American Bankers Association on the economy and other issues.

10 a.m.: Existing home sales for February, released by the National Association of Realtors.

Thursday, March 22
Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers second of four lectures at GW, time to be announced.

8:30 a.m.: Weekly unemployment claims, released by the Labor Department.

9:30 a.m.: Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Douglas Shulman testifies on IRS operations and the 2012 tax filing season, at the House Ways and Means subcommittee on Oversight.

10 a.m.: Leading indicators for February, released by the Conference Board.

10 a.m.: FHFA home prices, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

10 a.m.: Federal Reserve Board Gov. Daniel Tarullo, Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs Lael Brainard and others testify on international harmonization of Wall Street reform, at the Senate Banking Committee.

10 a.m.: Hearing on how mobile payments could change financial services, at the House Financial Services subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit.

2 p.m.: Hearing on the Verizon /quotes/zigman/262341/quotes/nls/vz VZ -0.05%  cable deals and the impact on competition and consumers, at the Senate Judiciary subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights.

4 p.m.: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans presents paper of the effects of FOMC Forward Guidance, at the Brookings Institution.

Friday, March 23
All day: Federal Reserve Board conference on “Before During and After the Crisis,” first of two days, at Fed headquarters.

10 a.m.: New home sales for February, released by the Commerce Department.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-17 23:11 | 显示全部楼层
Monday 19 March: Auction to settle Greek credit default swaps after credit event.

Tuesday 20 March: Spanish and Greek T-bill auctions.

Wednesday 21 March: UK Budget. German bond auction. Portugal T-bill auction.

Thursday 22 March: Flash euro-zone March PMI data. General strike in Portugal.

Friday 23 March: New deadline for exchange offer of Greek bonds under foreign law and bonds issued by state-owned companies.

Wednesday 28 March: Allotment of ECB three-month long-term refinancing operation. Italian T-bill auction.

Thursday 29 March: Italian bond auction. Spain's main labor union to hold general strike.

Friday 30 March: Euro-zone finance ministers meet. Euro-area March inflation data. Spanish government due to present 2012 budget.

Saturday 31 March: Deadline for Irish government to repay Euro 3.1bn in promissory notes.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-19 15:15 | 显示全部楼层

Threat to Chinese tourist spending boom

Commentary: Winners and losers from luxury tax cut

Last year Chinese tourists bought almost two-thirds of luxury goods sold in Europe as they went on a record spending-spree.

But while mainlanders are happy to splurge on foreign soil, what their government needs is for them to open the purse strings at home. Domestic consumption has shrunk to just 36% of gross domestic product and is increasingly the weak link in China’s growth.

One step to redress this spending imbalance is to cut penal mainland taxes on consumption and luxury goods. Analysts say such a move now looks likely.

This could have far-reaching consequences for one of the biggest investment stories of recent years — outbound spending by mainland tourists.

Everyone from retailers in Hong Kong, to London or Seoul could feel the fallout, while foreign luxury brands seeking to expand in China should be buoyed by any duty cut.

Expectations that a move is imminent were fuelled by widely reported comments earlier this month by former deputy commerce minister Wei Jianguo, to expect at least two rounds of reductions on import taxes on consumer and luxury goods. Then, this past weekend Finance Minister Xie Xuren promised to improve China’s consumption tax.

Among the spending habits likely to catch authorities attention say Credit Suisse is the revelation that Chinese residents spent 300 billion yuan ($47.4 billion) overseas on their bank cards in 2011, up 66.7% on a year earlier, according to data from China UnionPay.

And as well as accounting for 62% of all luxury consumer sales in Europe last year, mainland shoppers spent a whopping $7.2 billion during the recent Lunar Year holiday, up 28.6% on the previous year according to the World Luxury Association.

If you look at existing tax rates in China, it is easy to see why shopping overseas is so popular.

Import duties on general luxury products range from 10%-25%, and can be as high as 35%-60% on luxury cosmetic products and alcohol. Add on value-added tax (17%) and a consumption tax depending on the merchandise and prices on the mainland are penal. According to a survey by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, prices for luxury goods in China are 45% higher than in Hong Kong, 51% higher than the U.S. and 72% higher than France.

If these taxes were designed to promote social fairness and curb bourgeoisie shopping habits by targeting rich consumers, they appear to be missing the mark — luxury spending at home is just being diverted overseas by globe trotting mainlanders.

Another reason to expect action on taxes is the government’s recent focus on boosting growth through domestic consumption. This past weekend in Beijing Vice Premier Li Keqiang said expanding domestic demand is a “strategic point” for economic development. Another official played up China’s readiness to import, predicting it may soon become the world’s largest importer.

This eagerness to import, however, comes at a time when China just recorded a monthly trade deficit in February of $31.5 billion. With export growth expected to remain relatively weak, this provides another reason for authorities to be less sanguine about yuan leaking abroad through unchecked tourist spending.

Meanwhile, it is also worth considering that for many mainlanders, shopping abroad is not just about getting a tax-free bargain.

China’s capital controls and limited domestic investment options mean luxury shopping often fulfills various secondary needs.

In Macau, for instance, purchasing luxury goods can be a handy way to access hard cash. A typical story is a mainlander shopper can buy an expensive handbag or watch on their credit card, which can then be sold back for something like 90% of the value in cash.

In fact, luxury handbags have almost become a money substitute. Milan Station Holdings Ltd. /quotes/zigman/5085302 HK:1150 -1.97% , a chain of shops that trades second-hand handbags even listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange last year, which gives you an idea how big this business is.

This, as well as a preference by many mainlanders to conceal conspicuous luxury shopping overseas, means old shopping habits could be hard to change.

If we do get a cut in luxury taxes, Credit Suisse, say luxury brands who import their goods into China will benefit such as Prada, Coach, Hugo Boss, LVMH or Tiffany.

The flip side, they add, is that for the retail and tourism industries that have benefitted from outbound Chinese tourists, any reduction in import tariffs will be incrementally negative.

On the list of potential casualties is Hong Kong, Macau, South Korea to retailers in Europe. Hong Kong could be particularly vulnerable given 28 million mainland tourists visited last year (four times its population) and its huge concentration of luxury retail brands — Louis Vuitton has seven stores in the city, one more than Paris.

This comes at a time the government is building everything from new bridges to high speed rail links to whisk ever more mainland tourists into town. Hong Kong had better hope it will still be able to offer bargains.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-19 21:01 | 显示全部楼层
Something to watch out for later today 19March, and in the next couple of weeks. The European Financial Stability Facility (the EU's bailout vehicle) is pricing an auction Euro 4.5bn of 20-year bonds, that will take place later this month.

This is the longest length security that the EFSF has ever auctioned , and should be a good test of long-term investor confidence.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-24 10:35 | 显示全部楼层
Monday, March 26
8 a.m.: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke addresses the National Association of Business Economists.

10 a.m.: Supreme Court hears arguments on the constitutionality of President Barack Obama’s health-care law.

Tuesday, March 27
10 a.m.: Consumer confidence for March, released by the Conference Board.

10 a.m.: Hearing on monetary policy, and the benefits of a sound dollar, at the Joint Economic Committee.

12:45 p.m.: Bernanke gives third of four lectures at George Washington University, on Fed and its role in the financial crisis.

2:45 p.m.: Hearing to examine renewable energy tax incentives and the effect on the U.S. renewable energy industry, at the Senate Finance subcommittee on Energy, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure.

Wednesday, March 28
8:30 a.m.: Durable-goods orders for February, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Hearing on accounting and auditing oversight, and emerging issues for regulators and the economy, at the House Financial Services subcommittee on Capital Markets and Government Sponsored Enterprises.

2:30 p.m.: Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies on the administration’s response to the foreclosure crisis and mounting student loan debt, at the Senate Appropriations subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government.

Thursday, March 29
8:30 a.m.: Weekly unemployment claims, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Fourth-quarter gross domestic product, released by the Commerce Department.

9:30 a.m.: Hearing on current and near-term future price expectations for gasoline and other refined petroleum fuels, at the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee.

9:30 a.m.: Hearing on the semi-annual report of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, at the House Financial Services Committee.

10 a.m.: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley testifies on the Fed’s aid to the Eurozone, and its impact on the U.S. the and dollar, at the House Financial Services subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology.

12:45 p.m.: Fed Chairman Bernanke gives final lecture at George Washington University.

Friday, March 30
8:30 a.m.: Pesonal income and consumer spending for February, released by Labor Department.

9:45 a.m.: Manufacturing activity in Chicago in March, released by the Institute for Supply Management.

9:55 a.m.: Consumer sentiment for March, released by the University of Michigan and Reuters.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-24 11:00 | 显示全部楼层
a two day meeting of European finance ministers to discuss the size of the bailout fund, UK fourth quarter GDP figures, Germany's IFO index which measures business sentiment, Eurozone inflation data, and bond auctions from Spain and Italy.


Friday 23 March: New deadline for exchange offer of Greek bonds under foreign law and bonds issued by state-owned companies. ECB may issue announcement of its approval of Ireland's deferral of
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-26 21:36 | 显示全部楼层























[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-11-11 21:44 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-26 21:39 | 显示全部楼层

























[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-11-21 19:40 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-26 21:45 | 显示全部楼层
















[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-11-21 23:17 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-30 11:25 | 显示全部楼层

hate static price targets!

Most of the research we read or see on TV is a bureaucratized and sanitized version of analysis.  The firm determines something, and that is the official version for public consumption.  Those who pay no attention to changing conditions add no value for investors.

Did you notice that things are better in Europe?  That economic data have improved?

If not, perhaps you have the wrong approach to your research.  You need to be flexible, responding to new information.  Most of those who claim success at market timing are exaggerating.  If you missed this prior article that showed how to check track records, please take a look.

Examples:

A big-time firm sets a price target for a stock.  The stock rallies and hits the target.  Then they move the target up by 20%.  How helpful is that?

Suppose it goes the other way.  The stock sells off and the firm lowers the target while retaining a "buy" rating.  How helpful is that?

This is why I do not follow analyst price targets for stocks.  I review their research and I draw my own conclusions.  I revise my price targets each week.  I review my most recent expectations for corporate earnings and cash flow and compare this to the current price, the market multiple for similar stocks, the multiple for the overall market, and the return from alternative investments.

Isn't that what you would do if you took the time?

I described the flawed process of big firms in this article from 2010.  By contrast, I described my own approach for our Great Stocks program:

"Analyst reports can be very helpful.  There is a lot of information about the business model, recent trends, and risk factors.  Reading several reports can help in identifying the consensus, especially what the analyst community is worried about.  Knowing these concerns can help you anticipate upgrades and downgrades.

I use the raw data to set my own target prices, and I review the targets frequently.  I select stocks with a target that is at least 25% higher and with attention to near-term catalysts and risks.  I have found that this is a good level for a goal, understanding that it will be achieved only some of the time.  Trying for home runs is tempting, but not as effective.

I almost never own a stock at the time it hits a target.  This may seem strange, but consider two cases:

If the stock makes a big move, but the fundamentals have not changed, it no longer has the potential for an additional 25% gain over the next twelve months.  I sell and move on to something that meets my criteria.  I sell these stocks before the target is reached.
If the stock makes a big move and the fundamentals keep pace, the target is moving as rapidly as the stock price.  This enables me to hold stocks like Apple."

Current Investment Implications

As the first quarter of 2012 draws to a close, there is a fierce competition to call the market top.  I watch the entire spectrum of opinion closely.  At the risk of oversimplifying, I will suggest two broad viewpoints:

Those with a static market target.  These observers started the year with an idea and they will not be budged!  Members of this group share some or all of the following characteristics:

Using prices from ten years ago to determine current market values;
Excessive fixation on calendar effects;
Excessive attention to the length of past market cycles;
Substituting fake data (what they personally believe interest rates SHOULD be, what they think profit margins SHOULD be, using the discredited Shadow Stats, complaining about seasonal adjustments, and making other assorted excuses);
Over-emphasis on debt and austerity;  and most importantly....
Embracing a political viewpoint that excuses all other analytical mistakes.
Those who remain flexible.  These observers are watchful and wary, but open to new data.  Members of this group share some or all of the following characteristics:

Monitoring earnings expectations as the best guide for future stock prices;
Using long-term data as the basis for establishing earnings growth and profit margins;
Understanding that there is no set time for a market cycle.  A deep recession may take a longer recovery period.  We might only be in the third inning of the recovery.
Accepting the reality of new data.  No Excuses!  No changing of methods.  No rejection of seasonal adjustments after always using them in the past.  Not starting with a pre-conception and ignoring contrary evidence;
Recognizing progress.  If a few months ago you thought that there was systemic risk from Europe and there would be a deep recession there, did you modify  your market viewpoint when this did not happen?  The successful investor constantly adjusts for risk, using indicators like the St. Louis Financial Stress Index;
Ignoring politics.  This is true whichever party is in power.  It is part of the electoral process for the "outs" to disparage any signs of progress.  If you want to succeed as an investor, you learn to ignore this background noise.
Conclusion and Current Ideas

The two profiles provide a sharp contrast.  Which fits your own approach?

There are many stocks that are attractive despite higher prices?  Why?  The earnings potential has grown faster than the price, and the risk is lower.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-30 11:56 | 显示全部楼层
We are about to hit a very busy few days for global financial markets as we count down to the Easter break next weekend.

Tonight 3/30 in the US sees monthly personal income and spending data along with consumer sentiment and fund managers will be madly book-squaring and window-dressing for the end of the March quarter. Tonight also sees the start of a two-day meeting of EU finance ministers to discuss further contributions to firewall funding for the eurozone. And on Sunday China will release its official manufacturing PMI for March.

4/2The first trading day of the month always brings the round of global monthly manufacturing PMIs while Beijing just sticks to the first of the month, not quite understanding what a weekend is. So on Monday we'll see PMIs from Australia, the eurozone, UK and US ahead of a crowded week of economic releases and statements.

China releases its services PMI on Tuesday 4/3 and everyone else on Wednesday 4/4, while Australia will also see building approvals, retail sales and the trade balance across the week. The US will release construction spending, factory orders and chain store sales and it's also unemployment week, which means the ADP private sector jobs number on the Wednesday 4/4 and non-farm payrolls on the Friday 4/6.

Friday is actually Good, which means the US jobs numbers will be released when the markets are closed 4/6. Markets will also be closed for Good Friday in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and the UK.

It will also be a big week for central bank policy ahead of the chocolate orgy, with the Fed releasing the minutes of its last meeting on Tuesday 4/3 (to QE3 or not to QE3?), the ECB issuing a policy update on Wednesday 4/4 and Bank of England following suit on Thursday 4/5.

The RBA will also make a rate decision, on Tuesday 4/3. The markets are suggesting a rate cut is a 50/50 bet but I wouldn't take that, feeling Glenn Stevens is more likely to have a closer look in May after the quarterly inflation data have been posted.

Global economy slowing? Well, next week should offer plenty of evidence one way or the other. And the weekend may determine whether or not we can all get nervous again about Europe.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-3-30 13:38 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-30 15:32 | 显示全部楼层
Many markets were on a tear in the first quarter. But the year’s start wasn’t kind to all.
IndexYTD
Shanghai Composite (CN:000001)+2.6%
Nikkei Stock Average (JP:10000018)+19.3%
Hang Seng Index (HK:HSI)+11.2%
S&P/ASX 200 (AU:XJO)+6.9%
Kospi (KR:0100)+10.4%
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-31 11:27 | 显示全部楼层

Washington events for April 2 - 6

Monday, April 2

10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management releases its manufacturing report for March.

10 a.m.: U.S. construction spending report for February, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: St. Louis Fed president James Bullard releases presentation he made at a closed-door forum in Beijing.

12:35 p.m.: Cleveland Fed president Sandra Pianalto speech on Fed policy at Economic Roundtable of the Ohio Valley in Marietta, Ohio.

U.S. House and Senate on recess until April 16.

President Barack Obama meets the leaders of Canada and Mexico for the North American Leaders summit.

Tuesday, April 3

10 a.m.: U.S. factory orders report for February, released by the Commerce Department.

2 p.m.: Federal Open Market Committee minutes.

4 p.m.: San Francisco Fed president John Williams economic briefing to students at University of San Diego.

The District of Columbia, Maryland and Wisconsin hold presidential primary elections.

Wednesday, April 4

8 a.m.: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speaks to the Economic Club of Chicago.

8:15 a.m.: ADP employment report for March.

10 a.m.: ISM services report for March.

11 a.m.: San Francisco Fed president John Williams gives speech to San Francisco Planning and Urban Research business breakfast series.

Thursday, April 5

8:30 a.m.: Weekly U.S. jobless claims, released by the Labor Department.

9:10 a.m.: St. Louis Fed president James Bullard speaks about the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

Friday, April 6

8:30 a.m.: U.S. nonfarm payroll report for March, released by the Labor Department.

3 p.m.: U.S. consumer credit for February, released by the Federal Reserve.
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发表于 2012-4-1 20:30 | 显示全部楼层
算了,来学习。学习

[ 本帖最后由 春夏秋冬 于 2012-4-1 20:50 编辑 ]
生活是一种修行。在学习中进步,至少希望这样
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-1 22:17 | 显示全部楼层
路透新加坡3月22日电---中国制造业采购经理人(PMI)初值低迷,似乎与近几个月石脑油进口大增情况形成矛盾.石脑油是与工业生产最密切相关的油品.

汇丰3月中国PMI跌至48.1,为连续第五个月低於荣枯分水岭50.


3月PMI也低於2月终值49.6,疲弱部分集中在新订单,这特别会牵动投资人对於中国经济放缓情况超过预期、面临硬着陆风险的担忧.

不过,最近几年工业生产与石脑油进口增幅之间出现相当强劲的连动性,其中已经考量到采购石脑油的明显季节性特色.

这个连动现象在过去五个月被打破,中国石脑油进口加速,而汇丰及官方PMI则在放缓.


2月的官方PMI仍高於50,但就连官方PMI也在11月时跌落50,目前仍远低於2010年11月的55.2.

中国石脑油进口量已经由去年5月低点107,200吨回升,今年1月达到362,675吨,为2010年12月以来最高单月数量.

虽然2月又回落至342,737吨,但今年头两个月是历年纪录最高,比去年同期增加47%.

那麽,要如何解释石脑油进口劲增,而同时间工业产出增幅却在放缓呢?


第一个因素是,中国一直在增加石化下游产能,需要更多石脑油作为加工原料.

这或许造成了一个影响,即石脑油进口增加,但二甲苯等化学品的进口因而减少.

另外,中国炼油业者似乎也在全力提高中质馏分油产量,减少了国内石脑油产量,即使炼厂的产能利用率在今年头两个月已经提高至纪录水位.


另一个可能造成影响的因素,则是炼厂增加油品库存量,以备迎接第二季开始的预定维修.


中国石脑油进口与官方PMI走势对照图(link.reuters.com/mad37s)

不得不提出来的问题就是,这些理由是否足以说明石脑油进口的增幅,或者,未来几个月工业需求料将增加,是否会是比较看似合理的解释.

交易商指称,对於订购石脑油,中国石脑油用户已经采取更倾向及时制度的作法,这暗示,石脑油进口增加,或许是因为用户预期需求上升.

中国石脑油进口的季节性模式也有某种程度的打破,正常情况是第一季和第二季下跌,下半年增加.

但2012年的头两个月打破了这个趋势,单月平均数量比2011年12月进口高出55%.

相比之下,2009年头两个月的平均值比前一年12月少了9%,而2010年则是少了19%,去年甚至少了42%.

这些数字暗示今年以来中国石脑油进口的季节性模式有所改变,这也很可能是中国石脑油使用情况改变的另一个因素.

我唯一能得出的可靠结论就是,中国石脑油进口已经不再是工业生产增幅的可靠指标.


要让这两者重新建立连动关系,则PMI数据未来几个月必须有所回升,否则就是石脑油进口增幅必须放缓.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-1 22:20 | 显示全部楼层
路透法兰克福3月23日电---随着欧元区危机减弱,欧洲央行(ECB)中的强硬派开始恢复原形,重新把关注焦点放到通胀上面,并开始策划如何从其刚刚实施的支持举措中退出.


在欧洲央行完成第二轮长期再融资操作(LTRO)后不到一个月,以德国人为首的一些欧洲央行委员就在张罗准备退出这些支持举措.通过两次融资操作,欧洲央行一共向金融体系注入了逾1万亿(兆)欧元的流动性,至少暂时止住了欧元区危机.


去年末还在担心发生信贷紧缩,有些人认为其可能导致欧元区解体,而现在关注点则转向了退出策略.这种变化突显宽松货币政策带来的通胀压力是多么令人担忧.


这种担忧在德国尤其明显,1920年代发生的恶性通货膨胀,令德国人对于物价上涨深恶痛绝.德国的正统经济学家担心,向经济挹注资金将必然导致物价压力上升.


"货币主义者回来了,"野村的分析师Jens Sondergaard表示.他回忆道,当初成立欧洲央行的时候,德国人就促使其采取了双支柱策略,即不仅要关注经济,而且要关注货币供应.


"系统中有这么多的流动性,如果你相信货币主义,一旦经济形势改善,这些流动性就可能推高通胀,"他说,"因此他们想先发制人."


货币主义者认为,货币供应过度膨胀必然造成通胀压力.欧元区的过多流动性--超过银行业者日常运营所需的部分,目前达到了7,650亿欧元.


德国央行总裁魏德曼(亦为欧洲央行管委会成员)率先要求欧洲央行解除一些对抗危机的措施,其它欧元区核心国家的央行总裁迅速表示支持.


奥地利央行总裁诺沃特尼上周对路透表示,欧洲央行管委会已在讨论如何组织退出危机措施.而德国籍欧洲央行委员亚斯穆森表示,必须准备退出,欧洲央行管理委员会委员暨芬兰央行总裁利卡宁呼吁要及时解除对抗危机的举措.


虽然这些人影响力很大,但在由23人组成的欧洲央行管理委员会中可能不占多数.自从今年加入欧洲央行以来,科尔坚持比较温和的立场,显得不急于收回危机期间采取的措施.


"现在就退出策略做出决定还为时过早,"他本月稍早表示,"我们必须为未来退出做好准备,但我认为现在还不是时候."


欧洲央行中的强硬派通常比其他立场较灵活的委员更喜欢发声,但后者并非受与货币主义相悖的思想意识所左右,只是想采取观望态度而已.


在欧洲央行内部,货币正义者的影响仍然很大,尤其是考虑到导致2008年全球金融危机的投机性资产价格泡沫.


德国已经在日益担忧房产价格上涨.亚斯穆森本周表示,"必须密切关注".魏德曼在周二发表的一篇讲话中提到与资产泡沫相关的风险.


浏览欧洲央行图表,请点击:(here)



**前路会有波折?**


欧央行强硬派担心,LTRO有可能会滋生这类泡沫.欧央行最近的研究明显透露出其担忧.这些研究通常都会反映欧央行的想法.


去年11月当欧央行策划LTRO时,经济学家Gert Peersman在写给央行的一份论文中称,这类政策举措对经济活动和通胀的全面影响,要比利率走势晚六个月才会反映出来.


"三年期LTRO推高通胀率预计在2013年会体现得尤其明显,"根特大学教授、前欧央行顾问Peersman表示.


甚至会在今年年底时就感觉到通胀的影响,因为经济疲软时期传导效应会更快,他补充道.


这意味着随着欧央行经济在年底好转,而物价压力已在上升,欧央行的两次融资操作可能恰恰在那时推高通胀.


欧央行对M3货供额增长的参考标准为4.5%,认为若超过这一标准将给通胀带来上行压力.可参看的最新数据显示,1月M3货供额年增率跳增至2.5%,12月时为1.5%.


欧央行的正统人士明显担心,央行挹注的1万亿欧元资金会恰好在错误的时间加剧通胀压力.


"对于明年或者今年年末的经济成长看法可能更加乐观,我认为到那时欧央行应该考虑退出问题了,"野村的Sondergaard表示."一整年撙节举措只进行了一季,所以目前考虑退出似乎有点过早."



**复苏风险**


近期的经验可能让一些央行人士对过早退出危机模式持审慎态度.去年时欧洲央行两度升息以解除宽松政策立场,之后却只得改弦易辙,在去年稍后再度降息.


即使是欧洲央行强硬派人士希望准备退出策略,欧盟仍面临经济蹒跚的风险,或受危机冲击的国家可能无法进行改革,市场可能担惊受怕,并再度推升政府借款成本.


在希腊本月躲开违约后,市场暂感宽慰,但西班牙逐渐成为危机焦点.


西班牙的预算目标放宽令投资人感到不案,其10年券收益率ES10YT=TWEB本周已飙升逾20个基点至5.5%以上.


Berenberg银行分析师Christian Schulz认为有进一步的风险,因意大利总理蒙堤有可能无法全面推动就业市场改革,且希腊和法国的大选都是可能令市场焦躁不安的事件.


这些应该都不会让欧元区重返全面危机."但我们必须密切关注,"他表示.


经济复苏还是未定之天.


欧元区经济3月时意外转差,受法国和德国工厂活动意外下滑所打击.


等到适当的时候,欧洲央行可能开始其退出策略:今年稍后的定期融资操作将改为竞标模式,而不是以固定价格提供给银行所需资金;或者提供具吸引力的利率好让银行将资金停泊在央行,以从市场上抽走资金.


欧洲央行若改采标售方式,也将提高三年期贷款的成本,因其利率是和主要的每周再融资操作的平均利率挂勾.


"万一通胀前景恶化,我们将立刻采取预防性行动,"欧洲央行总裁德拉吉本周对德国画报表示.


"最糟的情况已经结束,但风险还在."
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-1 22:34 | 显示全部楼层
希腊政府发言人Pantelis Kapsis3月26日表示,希腊将在4月底至5月中旬期间举行大选。据财华社报道,Kapsis向私人电视台Antenna表示,大选可能在4月29日、5月6日或5月13日举行。

环球网27日报道,希腊官方目前尚未确定选举日期。这位不愿透露姓名的官员对记者说:“具体日期尚未确定,但5月6日是非常可能进行大选的日期。”

法国大选初轮选举日期 4月22日?
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-4 16:59 | 显示全部楼层

实现资金迁移、平滑到期资金

市场人士普遍认为,“实现资金迁移、平滑到期资金”成为当前公开市场操作的主基调,而这有利于央行保持资金面适度宽松、择机推出降准等非常规货币政策。

        统计数据显示,截至3月29日,今年第二、三季度公开市场单月到期资金量分别为:4月份3990亿元、5月份1420亿元、6月份990亿元、7月份190亿元、8月份120亿元、9月份160亿元。从到期资金分布来看,除4月份到期资金高于3月份外,其余5个月到期资金量都处于相对较低水平,且基本呈逐月递减的态势。从到期资金分布来看,央行在二季度也能够以相对较低的操作力度实现未来数月到期资金的对冲。

        与此同时,由于当前一二级市场央票收益率倒挂,1年、3年等长期限品种央票在较长一段时期内预计难以复出,在公开市场短期限操作结构特征已较为明显的背景下,央行平滑资金的操作风格预计在二季度将继续得到体现。

        至于准备金率等非常规手段,东方证券等机构观点认为,在2月份出现显著贸易逆差、外汇占款难以恢复强劲增长的背景下,二季度央行仍可能继续适时下调准备金率。
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-4 17:07 | 显示全部楼层
一是在今年一季度整体上市公司业绩负增长的环境下,选择相对高增长的公司;

二是4月份消费促进月、全国流通工作大会、国民休闲计划等一系列政策预期下商贸、旅游板块;

三是基本面将见底的机械、汽车板块。

主题投资:核电与流通领域。
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-4 17:19 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-4 20:46 | 显示全部楼层

The calm before the EU storm

Commentary: China and U.S. would like crisis to be past its peak


There are some powerful reasons of self-interest why the U.S. and China might wish to spread the word that the European sovereign debt crisis is past its peak. But you shouldn’t necessarily believe them.

After the quick burst of first-quarter optimism over the European Central Bank’s liquidity injections, governments and markets are coming down to earth. This was underscored by European Union officials’ warning to finance ministers on Friday that the underlying causes of the crisis have not been resolved.

The world’s two biggest economies are doing all they can to avoid rocking the boat. But will it be enough? China, confronting higher domestic production costs, a stronger yuan and more fragile markets for its exports all over the world, wishes to avoid a weaker euro exacerbating its growth slowdown.

In the U.S., ahead of the November elections, President Barack Obama has no desire to upset the euro, hoping that a semblance of order on European financial markets will shore up global confidence, prolong the improvement in U.S. labor markets and help him hang on to the White House.

Washington has told Berlin (and anyone else who may be listening) to ensure the European turbulence is firmly under control during the poll run-up. The quid pro quo is that the Americans, for one, will not demonstrate openly their obvious qualms about the European recovery process.

Whether the strategy will work is not at all clear. Behind the scenes, both China and the U.S. are almost equally worried about how slowly Europe is steering out of trouble. There is talk that Europe’s banks need to deleverage to the tune of $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion in the next two years. Where’s the money going to come from? The increase in the euro state’s bailout fund to 700 billion euros decided on Friday would not be enough, especially since it is concentrated on the sovereign states and not the banks.

Much criticism concerns lack of German leadership. Nothing much can be done about this, it seems. The Germans have an aversion about leading. As Prof. Michael Stürmer, the well-known German historian and commentator, puts it, Germany doesn’t even have a word for “leadership”. Since Hitler, “Führung” and “Führer” are not well regarded.

Indeed, in relation to any kind of effort to prop up the euro edifice, “Merkel’s Law of Permanent Disappointment” has come into play — as the long-standing debate over increasing the bailout funds has underlined. The German chancellor will always do more than she originally promised to help out errant states, but the funds committed will always be less than necessary to solve the euro’s problems once and for all. So people on both sides of the argument, whether conservative German voters or the financial markets or the hard-up states themselves, will always be disappointed — for equal and opposite reasons.

The Chinese and Americans are concerned about the ECB’s lack of full-scale commitment to euro rescue action. Again, there is not much opportunity for change here. With the Bundesbank leading complaints from the sidelines about the ECB’s fall from a pure form of central banking independence, the hawks on the ECB council are starting a campaign for an “exit” from the ECB’s liquidity injections. Observers in Washington say this is mightily premature and shows up Europe’s hesitancy and lack of resolve about what do to.

Meanwhile Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank president, is leading the charge of the hard money brigade. In an uncompromising speech in London this week, he used possibly the most florid phrase ever coined by a Bundesbank president, saying the “wall of money” erected around Europe’s financial problems would, like the Tower of Babel “never reach heaven.”

Weidmann’s message is clear. In coming months, the temporary factors that have calmed the landscape will retreat from view. What we now see is the calm before the storm.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-4 21:16 | 显示全部楼层

安信首席策略分析师程定华二季度投资交流全文:抛弃幻想,面对现实

选用这个题目主要是因为市场指数在前三个月表现良好,投资者可能会产生一些不切实际的想法,包括对于经济增速见底、政策预期调整等产生了较多的幻想。我认为伴随着这种在上涨过程中产生的幻觉,实际的情况可能与市场的想象会相差很远。抛开投资者所想象的东西,实际的情况究竟是什么样子的,我在这里向大家介绍一下。


总体来说包含以下几点内容:
1、市场和我们都关注的事情是什么?
2、去年年底我们相对比较看好市场,那个时候判断市场会迎来一波反弹,而现在那波反弹处于什么样的状况?
3、关于盈利改善,之前市场预期与现实情况的对比。
4、制度性改革带来的冲击。
5、我们的结论以及行业配置的看法。




(一)我们在任何时点上都需要关注的事情:

1、企业盈利。
2、市场利率(无风险收益率)。
3、风险偏好。

很多投资者在讨论股市的时候喜欢将宏观经济与股市挂钩,

(a)“例如有些人因为看好中国的经济增速,所以就看好中国股市的表现。”这种看法是不正确的,当他们去投资时就会碰到壁垒,其实经济与股市是存在关系的,只是不知道它们之间的关系到底是什么样子的。简单来说决定股票涨跌的因素里并没有经济增速这一条,经济增速是通过影响企业盈利而对股票价格起到作用的,所以决定股票价格的因素是企业盈利能力。如经济增速与企业盈利是一致的,那么经济增速的提升就会带动企业盈利的上升,同时推动股价上涨。如果两者之间无关系,那就是毫无关系了。因此经济增速不是推动股价上涨的直接因素。

(b)“有些投资者看好M1、M2增速先见底再反弹,或者仅关注信贷,信贷一放出来,那么股市就变好了。”那思考下决定股价因素的公式里面有没有M1、M2、外汇占款以及新增信贷呢?答案是一个都没有,这些都是通过市场利率从而对股价产生作用的,因此我们研究M1、M2、外汇占款以及新增信贷通通都是为了研究市场利率。

(c)“有些人会说制度性的一些变化,包括主席、总理的讲话等,将会影响股价的表现。“而我们认为这些只是在影响风险偏好,从而再进一步对股价产生影响。因此简单来讲这些就是DDM模型中的三个重要因素,我只不过是从一个微观的角度扩展到宏观的角度来看待这个问题,所以我们需要关心企业盈利、市场利率以及风险偏好这三点的变化。


去年底我们判断市场将会转好的逻辑有两点:市场利率+风险偏好。我们判断市场利率将会变好的逻辑是源于当时的利率水平处于阶高位置,正在经历一个向下的拐点,今年前三个月利率水平的表现也验证了我们之前的判断,利率水平出现了大幅的下降,这点也是推动股市上涨第一个重要因素。另外,风险偏好在去年底处在一个非常低的水平,因为去年下半年遭受了欧债危机的冲击,全球的投资人都非常厌恶风险,所以就都将高风险资产抛售掉了。而如何去度量风险偏好的指标呢,我们认为可以参考债券市场垃圾债与高信用等级债券之间的利差。当市场风险偏好低的时候(投资者厌恶风险),投资者就会投资于国债,国债利率就会下跌,而相反垃圾债利率就会变得很高,两者之间的利差就会随之扩大。反之,当市场喜好风险时,投资者就会抛售国债,然后投资于垃圾债,那么国债的利率水平就会抬升,垃圾债收益率下降,两者利差就会收窄,这就是风险偏好的变化。因为我们认为去年欧债危机这件事导致了全球的风险偏好极低,因此它一定会朝着均值回归,因而将会推动所有风险资产价格上涨,包括股票和垃圾债,对于股市构成正面利好。(推动股市上涨的第二个重要因素)


    虽然企业盈利从去年四季度开始就已经变得很差了,但是这个因素在当时的背景下并不是很重要,因为经历股市的下跌企业盈利已经price-in了,并且站在去年年底的角度上所有经济学家都预测今年通胀会见底,同时企业盈利增速也会见底,因此如果遇见了两个季度后将会见底,市场提前一个季度开始布局是没有任何问题的。影响股价的三个因素里两个因素利好于股市,不考虑另外一个因素,那么股市自然就会迎来反弹。


(二)下面我们可以看一下反弹到目前阶段这些因素都处于什么状态。首先我们观察全球的无风险收益率(市场利率):发达国家中美国和德国的情况,美国自从去年标普调整评级后利率就开始不停的下降,最低达到1.9%,现在开始反弹;德国则是由于去年受欧债危机影响有一次大幅的向上后,之后便不断下行,目前也达到了非常低的水平然后开始反弹了。因此我认为无风险收益率的下降在低风险的发达国家中已告一段落。某些投资者认为美国QE3的出台即将长期债券收益率水平控制在低位,但我认为美国即使出台了QE3,长期债券利率水平也不会再往下掉了,原因在于当利率水平达到1.9%的时候,如果QE3是起作用的,那么整个经济将会变好,那么通胀的预期便会回升,企业的ROE会回升,那么凭什么人家借钱给你,无风险收益率要降到1.9%呢,所以利率一定会起来;如果QE3不起作用,推出QE3后美国经济仍然萎靡不振,那么投资者就会抛售美元及美国国债,出现资本外逃,那么无风险收益率一样会回升,因此德美国家的长债收益率已经开始出现反弹了。高盛近期有一个看法,前半句说“美国三十年的国债牛市正面临终结,”这点我非常赞同,但后半句却说“股票市场正面临千载难逢的机会。”这点我认为是纯属瞎扯。


接下来我们再观察高风险的国家,去年我们对于意大利很担心,其国债收益率一度飙升,10年期的国债收益率甚至超过了8%,而现在已经回落至4.7%,利率水平在欧债危机后又回到了历史均值。2年期国债收益率最高时曾接近8%,但现在只有2%,所以意大利的问题已经没有之前市场想象的那么糟糕了。实际的情况则是当时正是风险偏好的变化引起的利率的波动,而这种波动与其经济基本面联系远没有大家想象的那么紧密,风险偏好在变化之后最终回归到了历史均值,因此对于这些国家来说利率水平不会进一步下降。关于风险偏好,我们知道恐慌和狂热一样,是不可能持续的,所以它一定会回归,从长期来看它是一个均值。另外从这三点就可以看出,自下而上的价值投资人是可以获得成功的。只有投机分子才会关心这些问题,简单来说市场利率和风险偏好从长期来看都是中性,因此真正起作用的只有一个因素,就是企业盈利。但因为我们又是投机份子,需要做波段,所以才会关注市场利率和风险偏好,因为这些因素短期会为股票带来巨大的上下摆动,但从长期来看这两个因素都是中性的。
中国目前发生的一切情况与境外是没有任何差异的。首先风险偏好,先前有一次非常大的上升,然后回落,对应股市先有一次暴跌,然后反弹。去年9月份之后垃圾债暴跌,国债不跌,所以在利差不停的扩大,风险偏好在下降。然后今年1月份之后垃圾债暴涨,国债不涨,利差收窄,这是典型的风险偏好上升,所以很多乌七八槽的风险资产开始上涨,这就其反弹的原理。唯一与境外市场的差异就是比其晚了3个月,欧洲在去年10月份风险偏好就见到了低点,而中国在1月份才见底,但逻辑层面上是完全一致的。再看无风险收益率,中国与美国的国债收益率很接近,票据贴现和货币市场利率均回归到了正常水准,所以我们就能看到全球的股市都在上涨,无论是经济增速是8%、6%或0%的国家通通都在涨,并且就涨幅来讲与经济增速是没有任何关系的,因为涨幅的原因不是来自于企业盈利,而是所有的国家资金利率水平都在下降,风险偏好水平再上升。涨幅的多少与之前挖坑的深浅有关,坑挖深的就涨幅多,挖的浅的就涨的少。因此我们看到的基本现象就为今年全球的股市没有下跌的,而欧债危机的坑现在差不多已经都填平了,目前全球的股市也都不怎么涨了,原因在于全球的企业都没有盈利了,或者说中国股市比其他国家还要更差些,就整个模式来讲是完全一致的。但也存在特殊的情况,例如纳斯达克和标普的指数创了新高,虽说风险偏好和利率都是一样的,它多出了一个东西叫盈利。具体来讲“苹果”公司推动了纳斯达克和标普指数创了新高,目前苹果的市值占了美国股票总市值的4%,伴随着苹果公司市值的不断上升,导致了纳斯达克和标普指数超强,盈利这个因素起了作用,伟大的企业就会创造伟大的指数。


(三)企业盈利的决定因素有两点:1、产能利用率2、产品价格。一家企业产能利用率扩大,产品价格上升,那么企业盈利就会变好,反之就会变坏。我们观察到中国的经济增速从11%降到了8%,产能利用率和产品价格均下降了,所以盈利下降就不奇怪了。那么美国的经济从2%反弹至2.2%,企业盈利能力伴随着产能利用率和产品价格双升也就不奇怪了。因此可以清楚的反映出企业盈利与绝对经济增速没有关系,与经济增速的变化有密切相连。
中国股市指数会不会迎来大的机会,首先要观察中国企业盈利是否会见底回升,其次是看中国会不会有伟大的公司出来,如果没有,那就不要想象3000点或者6000点的到来了。现阶段中国企业盈利下跌的幅度与08年是一样的,直线下降,所以既然企业盈利是这个现状,股票差也就很正常了,因此企业盈利的下滑是中国股市弱于国外市场最重要的原因。而中国企业盈利之所以很差主要是因为绝大多数上市公司都是重资产,重资产的企业非常担心产能利用率的下降,例如汽车这个行业,如果产能利用率达到90%以上,甚至连比亚迪都能挣大钱,但如果产能利用率在70%的话,丰田都得亏钱,因此唯一的秘诀就是产能利用率。目前中国企业面临的很大问题就是产能利用率出现了大幅下滑,在当下的时点,为什么盈利变得非常重要呢?因为经济学家都预测说经济会在一、二季度见底,企业盈利增速见底,如果投资者认为这些都是真的,那么调整到现在就差不多要结束了,不会等到4月份了。但如果不相信,那就意味着调整这个事情就没谱了,至少我不太相信,是因年初时所有经济学家在描述今年的经济状况时,基本所有人都认为经济会见底,但见底的过程大概分为两派观点,一派称为自然见底,因为整个折旧在销售占比中很低,会自动进入到产能更新周期,再叠加补库存,这两件事情可以使经济自然见底。另外一派认为需要依靠政府的力量,所以如果经济增速往下掉,政府一出手,经济就见底了。不过从目前来看,两派的观点都不太靠谱,首先从产能更新周期来看,周期性行业(制造业)的投资增速已经非常低了,并没有抬头的迹象。我本人认为这是由于经济结构性调整所导致的,,因为例如钢铁行业已经7亿吨的产能了,不可能再进入新的一轮产能周期当中了,不可能再将钢铁从7亿吨扩充到14亿吨了。我们现在人均钢铁已经达到0.6吨了,这个东西已经搞到头儿了,不会再是一个周期简单性的循环了。其次关于政府救市,至少到目前为止政府对于经济下滑还没有实行任何措施,因为去年所有人在预测今年信贷时,根据的都是一个简单的周期规律,中国的经济里面有一个非常重要的规律叫信贷逆周期,即凡是经济不好的时候信贷规模就大,反之信贷规模就小。这点与全世界都不一样,全世界是顺周期,经济与信贷规模正相关联系。中国的逆周期则是因为中国的制度与别人不一样,因为每到经济不好的时候政府就要调控,扩大信贷规模,就会形成逆周期,所以站在去年的时点上所有机构都基本都认为今年信贷规模会比较大,因为今年经济不好。结果从前三个月来看,整个的信贷规模并没有起来,原因在于发改委今年忘记投项目了,所以商业银行不知道将信贷扔给谁,不知道把钱借给谁。所以我们一方面看到信贷规模很小,一方面看到利率在往下走,说明了需求疲弱,这个是目前最大的问题。所以我们就要看4月份之后,发改委会不会去找项目呢,这个不是由它决定的,得由政治局决定这事情。但我认为这种概率是比较小的,因为过去弄了几次之后,它们认为代价太高了,在09、10年发改委搞了400、500个项目下去了,国家掏了钱,谁在里面挣到钱了呢,三一重工挣到了钱,ROE奔到了50%,谁在里面亏了钱呢,投高铁和高速公路的人亏了钱,因为ROE是0%或者负数,所以简单的来说就是发改委直接把钱给了三一重工。因此发改委也意识到这种方式是不可行的,不大可能会长期搞下去。对现在的投资和早年的投资已经有很大的差异,因为之前投资的项目都至少有20-30%的ROE,具备自我循环的能力,投下去了自己挣钱、还款。现在没有这种项目了,因为中国的基础设施已经进入了饱和状态,投资类似项目产生不了足够的现金流,逐步会累积成负债。因此说政府不到万不得以的时候不会再出大批量投资项目这个杀手锏。


(四)关于制度性冲击,现在证监会正在做改革,如果概括成一句话叫做市场化与国际化改革。市场化改革包括新股发行制度改革,再融资审批权下放,退市制度和新三板。国际化改革包括国际版推出,短期内不需考虑国际版的事情;跨境ETF可能会早点。目前比较确定的就是新三板的推出,大家对于新三板的推出众说纷纭,我认为简单的来说就是北京市政府利用这次机会设立第三家交易所。外国称新三板为中国的纳斯达克,目标就是要朝着纳斯达克的方向去发展,这也就意味着要将创业板边缘化,这是大概率事件。另外再融资审批权的下放则是为了安抚深交所,而跨境ETP则会放到上交所。我认为这些制度的改革会对股市构成一定冲击,但具体如何冲击还需要等时间的推移才能显现出来,总体来说供应量会变大。等到制度改革尘埃落定的时候,那么我认为整个市场调整大格局就已经确立了。但作为投资者来讲,我们都是短视的:1、所以如果是作投机,我建议等到十八大前后,指数可能会相对较低,看看有没有机会。2、如果打算做一次大规模的投资决定,需等两件事落定:1、企业盈利增速见底。2、证监会改革进度过半。


(五)我们的结论:1、我们认为企业盈利预期改善的期望可能会落空。2、市场利率水平可能会继续下行一段时间。(因为CPI没有见底,一般CPI可能要到7、8月份见底)3、风险偏好转为中性。市场的反弹已经告一段落,要么转为箱体或者下跌,短期内上涨概率不大。4、控制仓位是第一选择。(因为现在几乎没有任何行业盈利状况良好,除了极少数的行业(白酒、医药),绝大部分的行业今年一季度的盈利都不行。)


对于上一次与下一次盈利见底区别的看法:

下一次盈利见底和上一次是不一样的,原因在于上次盈利见底时由于需求扩张,03-08年是非常典型需求扩张的市场,投资任何一个行业时都依据其需求扩张的速度而定,因此那时候投资者最喜爱产能扩产+价格上涨的公司,这是非常棒的。但是下一次见底全依靠的是供给收缩,就是盈利。


今年表现比较好的行业,主要是两类行业:强周期+早周期。强周期包括有色、煤炭、基础化工、建材。早周期包括房地产、汽车、家电。但还有一个行业是垃圾,就是券商,是什么推动这些行业上涨呢,不是依靠盈利。早周期是因为盈利见底的预期,强周期全是因为beta值的原因,受风险偏好影响最厉害的行业是beta值比较高的行业。而像beta值较低的医药、通讯行业,涨的就相对没那么好。表明今年行业的上涨由beta值推动的,并非由盈利推动的。再看强周期的盈利水平,例如水泥,价格自年初以来都是跌的,但股价却是反弹的。因此我认为下一次看周期性行业或传统行业,核心就在于关注供给收缩,谁的供给收缩的最快,谁就最好,而不是再关注需求扩张。从10年以来,所有炒周期性行业的逻辑全是炒供给收缩,例如电池、稀土、火电行业的供应量再不断的收缩。


关于非传统行业(转型行业),我分成两块:高难度转型,例如重庆啤酒的乙肝疫苗。需求前景广阔,只要能搞成功,但难度很大。别当真,复杂程度太高。转型难度没那么高,满足一下中低档的要求。例如三全食品变成肯德基,难度很大,但转变为全国性的品牌还是有可能的。


简单的投资方法....有些时候,我们不需要看估值,甚至于不需要看品种的基本资料,只要知道有下家愿意出更高价格,买进的安全性就大大增加,收益就只是多寡的问题。
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-8 23:30 | 显示全部楼层

“sell in May and go away.”

Equities are likely to reel from a disappointing U.S. jobs report. Investors will be back at their desks after the long Easter weekend faced with a busy calendar that includes important macroeconomic data in China and the start of the first-quarter earnings season in the U.S. Read more about the potential for a pullback in the stock market.

The week will also bring speeches by Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Ben Bernanke.

“We could have a challenging opening of the week,” and the question will become whether the recent and “long overdue” equity pullback is likely to continue, said Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist with Standard & Poor’s in New York.

Monday will be the first opportunity for equity investors to react to the weaker-than-expected jobs data, released on Friday. U.S. stock futures fell sharply on Friday after the data, indicating a potential selloff when trading resumes Monday. Read more about stock futures.

The U.S. economy created only 120,000 jobs in March, well below market expectations. Hiring failed to top 200,000 for the first time since November. The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since January 2009, but only because people dropped out of the labor force. Read more about the jobs report.

Reaction to the jobs report is likely to be limited to Monday, said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International in Newark, N.J. By the time the opening bell rings on Monday, investors will have had three days to digest the bad news, and the focus is likely to shift to Bernanke’s speech later on Monday, Praveen said.

On Monday evening, the Fed chief will deliver a speech on fostering financial stability at a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in Stone Mountain, Georgia. Analysts at Deutsche Bank said Bernanke may make comments on the latest employment data.

And on Friday, Bernanke will speak at a conference in New York on the crisis and the policy response to it.

The weak jobs report may breathe new life into hopes for another round of large-scale bond purchases by the Fed — hopes that had been dashed this week by minutes from the central bank’s latest policy meeting.

That could provide support for equities, analysts said.

Beige Book, China GDP on tap
Investors will also grapple with a busy U.S. economic calendar, which includes the Fed’s Beige Book on current economic conditions, due on Wednesday, as well as consumer prices and consumer sentiment, due on Friday.

Macroeconomic data from China will also be scrutinized. Chinese reports due next week include gross domestic product and industrial production.

GDP growth in China is expected to have slowed to an annual rate of 8% in the first quarter, according to analysts at Commerzbank.

After a pair of recent weak macroeconomic reports, investors have grown more concerned about China and fear its economy may be slowing down, worries reflected in a trounce for commodities in the past week.

Alcoa to kick off earnings season
Aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. /quotes/zigman/246295/quotes/nls/aa AA -1.83%  will kick off the first-quarter earnings season with a report after the closing bell on Tuesday.

Among other corporate heavyweights, Google Inc. /quotes/zigman/93888/quotes/nls/goog GOOG -0.45%  will report results on Thursday, and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. /quotes/zigman/272085/quotes/nls/jpm JPM -0.16%  and Wells Fargo & Co. /quotes/zigman/239557/quotes/nls/wfc WFC -0.44%  on Friday.

Earnings are expected to be “fairly decent,” said Jeff Schwarte, portfolio manager at Principal Global Equities in Iowa. Investors will be particularly eager to hear more about the outlook, as they will try to gauge the sustainability of the recent stock rally, he added.

There’s potential for “positive surprises” on the earnings front, said Brad Sorensen, director of market and sector research at Charles Schwab in San Francisco.

While last week’s pullback in equities could be extended, “the trend for the economy and the stock market continues to be relatively positive,” Sorensen said.

U.S. stocks notched losses for the week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA -0.11%  down 1.2% in the five-day period ended Friday. The S&P 500 Index /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX -0.06%  dropped 0.7% on the week, and the Nasdaq Composite /quotes/zigman/123127 COMP +0.40%  posted a weekly loss of 0.4%.

S&P’s Stovall said that of the ten sectors in the S&P 500, six are expected to report on-year negative earnings growth, with telecommunications and materials among the worst performers. Best sectors may include industrials, with on-year projected growth of 10%, followed by financials, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples, he said.

All in all, the quarter is likely to show “lackluster” performance, with defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples some of the best places to remain invested through the rest of the year, Stovall said.

That old adage — sell in May and go away — might “come a little early this year,” he said.

Tuesday, April 10
7:30 a.m.: National Federation of Independent Businesses releases the NFIB small-business index for March.

10 a.m.: Wholesale trade for February, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Job openings for February, released by the Labor Department.

Wednesday, April 11
8:30 a.m.: Import prices for March, released by the Commerce Department.

2 p.m.: Beige Book report on regional economic conditions, released by the Federal Reserve Board.

2 p.m.: Federal budget for March, released by the Treasury Department.

Thursday, April 12
8:30 a.m.: Weekly unemployment claims, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Producer prices for March, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Trade balance for February, released by the Commerce Department.

Friday, April 13
8:30 a.m.: Consumer prices for March, released by the Labor Department.

9:55 a.m.: UMich consumer sentiment for April, released by UMich/Reuters.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-12 17:55 | 显示全部楼层

March New Loan

"Today's data mean that the chance of rate cut is very small in the near future," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu in comments emailed to clients. He said the lending data suggested "loan demand came back after banks cut lending rates, new investment projects got started and the coldest winter in 27 years [is] behind us."
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-12 17:58 | 显示全部楼层
如果4月13日即将公布的经济数据悲观,存款准备金则会马上下调,反之,则会具体看未来外汇占款的情况。由于3月CPI反弹利率则暂时不动。

  中银国际宏观分析师李涛表示,4月到6月间,公开市场到期资金分别为3940亿元、1420亿元和990亿元;未来四周公开市场到期资金量较大,分别为1310亿元、1050 亿元、730亿和520亿元。但是目前美元仍然处于强势,4月份的外汇占款难以出现大幅回升,考虑到4月份3000-4000亿元的财政存款增长和存款增长带来的准备金需求,4月末的超储水平将下降到2%附近。而在5月份,随着公开市场到期资金量的下降和财政存款的持续增长,超储水平还将持续下降。面对3份通胀环比攀升,同比反弹的局面,预计央行短期内将维持存准率不变,但是随着流动性的逐步收紧,在4月末下调存准率的概率较大。
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-12 18:02 | 显示全部楼层
The World Bank on Thursday cut its 2012 China growth forecast to 8.2%, lowering its outlook from January's 8.4% estimate. It said a gradual slowdown was unfolding amid a sharp deceleration in investment growth, softening consumption growth and weak global demand. In its quarterly update report the World Bank said China should guard against a hard landing through fiscal policies designed to support consumption. The Washington-based agency said cutting banks' reserve requirements would be one way to ease credit availability. However, it also said that China's central bank should resist cutting interest rates for the time being, and instead hold such policy actions in reserve in case of a sharper downturn, It noted that real interest rates in China were already accommodative. Among risk factors, the World Bank cited China's housing market downturn and disruptions to growth in Europe and other high-income economies
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-5-19 12:36 | 显示全部楼层

Washington events for May 21 - 25

Monday, May 21
House of Representatives out of town on visits to home districts all week

11:30 a.m.: Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler discusses derivatives reform and the Dodd-Frank Act, at the 2012 Financial Industry Regulatory Authority annual conference; first for three days for the FINRA conference.

8:15 p.m.: President Obama delivers commencement speech at Joplin High School graduation ceremony, Joplin, Mo.

Tuesday, May 22
10 a.m.: Existing home sales for April, released by the National Association of Realtors.

10 a.m.: Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Schapiro and CFTC Chairman Gensler testify on derivatives reform, reducing systemic risk and improving market oversight, at the Senate Banking Committee

Wednesday, May 23
10 a.m.: New home sales for April, released by the Commerce Department.

2 p.m.: Hearing on the U.S.-China strategic and economic dialogue, at the Senate Banking subcommittee on Security and International Trade and Finance.

Thursday, May 24
8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, released by the Commerce Department.

8:30 a.m.: Durable goods orders for April, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Hearing on mortgage refinance proposals, at the Senate Banking Committee.

Friday, May 25
9:55 a.m.: Consumer sentiment index for May, released by University of Michigan and Reuters.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-5-19 12:41 | 显示全部楼层

Greece says Merkel asked for euro referendum

Group of Eight to focus on managing euro crisis, Obama says

Greek officials reportedly said Friday that Germany’s chancellor proposed that Athens hold a referendum on its membership in the euro, an assertion that was later denied by Berlin, just as Group of Eight leaders prepared to discuss the region’s debt crisis.

In a phone call with the Greek president on Friday, German leader Angela Merkel suggested that Greece could have a referendum on the euro when it holds national elections in June, according to media reports, which cited a statement from the office of the Greek caretaker prime minister.

Whether she actually did make the proposal is in doubt — a German government spokesperson denied it, but Greek officials then reiterated that Merkel made such a suggestion.

In the wake of the news, the three biggest parties in Greece criticized Merkel for meddling in the nation’s affairs, according to reports.

Merkel’s reported proposal comes just as questions are growing about whether Greece may exit the euro given its precarious economic and financial situation.

Greece has received financial aid from its euro-zone partners in exchange for severe austerity measures. To keep getting this aid, Greece must keep implementing the measures it has promised, which has become harder and harder as the nation’s recession has deepened.

Greece is due to hold a new election on June 17 after party leaders were unable to form a coalition government in the wake of the last election which produced splintered results.

In Washington, meanwhile, President Barack Obama said Friday that G-8 leaders will focus on managing the euro-zone crisis at their talks over the weekend. Obama made the comments after a meeting at the White House with newly-elected French President Francois Hollande. The two leaders agreed that the crisis is important to the world economy, Obama said.

The G-8 meeting will start on Friday evening at the Camp David presidential mountain retreat, with discussions on the European debt crisis due to take place Saturday morning.

Hollande, a Socialist who defeated Nicolas Sarkozy in the French election, met earlier in the week with Merkel in Berlin, where they both stressed their desire to keep the euro zone together. But there are some tensions between the French and German positions, because of Germany’s focus on strict austerity measures as a way to resolve the crisis, while Hollande won the French election with a message of additional growth stimulus.

White House officials have welcomed the new emphasis on growth and said Obama would seek to build a consensus between Merkel and Hollande.

After the White House meeting, Hollande said that he and Obama share the same conviction that Greece should remain in the euro zone.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-5-19 12:51 | 显示全部楼层
Meanwhile, China’s growth worries weighed on mining and other sectors. Media outlets said a report from China’s State Information Center, a government think tank, said annual growth could slow to 7.5% in the second quarter, owing to property-sector curbs and global headwinds.
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