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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-17 22:30 | 显示全部楼层
Hengan International Group Co. /quotes/zigman/47751
HK:1044 +0.14%
, Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science & Technology Development Co. /quotes/zigman/613776
HK:1157 -0.64%
, Lenovo Group Ltd. /quotes/zigman/21902
HK:992 -0.29%
, China Longyuan Power Group Corp. /quotes/zigman/47484
HK:916 +0.62%
, Sinopharm Group Co. /quotes/zigman/46384
HK:1099 +0.20%
, Youku Tudou Inc. /quotes/zigman/2786183 /quotes/nls/yoku YOKU -0.01%, and China Construction Bank Corp. /quotes/zigman/35073
HK:939 +0.18%

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-11-19 21:04 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-17 22:37 | 显示全部楼层
Monday, March 19
President Barack Obama travels to Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Ohio during the week to discuss energy policy.

All day: American Bankers Association holds its annual government relations summit, first of three days.

10 a.m.: Home builders’ index for March, released by the National Association of Home Builders.

Tuesday, March 20
Illinois Republican primary, polls close at 8 pm Eastern

Federal Election Commission releases February fund-raising totals from the presidential campaigns.

Senate scheduled to restart debate on JOBS legislation, time to be announced.

8:30 a.m.: Housing starts for February, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies on the department’s annual report on the state of the international financial system, at the House Financial Services Committee.

10 a.m.: Hearing on the increasing student debt-load, at the Senate Judiciary subcommittee on Administrative Oversight and the Courts.

12:45 p.m.: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers the first of four lectures at the George Washington School of Business.

2:45 p.m.: Hearing on commercial airline safety, at the Senate Commerce subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety and Security.

Wednesday, March 21
8:45 a.m.: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels addresses the American Bankers Association on the economy and other issues.

10 a.m.: Existing home sales for February, released by the National Association of Realtors.

Thursday, March 22
Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers second of four lectures at GW, time to be announced.

8:30 a.m.: Weekly unemployment claims, released by the Labor Department.

9:30 a.m.: Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Douglas Shulman testifies on IRS operations and the 2012 tax filing season, at the House Ways and Means subcommittee on Oversight.

10 a.m.: Leading indicators for February, released by the Conference Board.

10 a.m.: FHFA home prices, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

10 a.m.: Federal Reserve Board Gov. Daniel Tarullo, Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs Lael Brainard and others testify on international harmonization of Wall Street reform, at the Senate Banking Committee.

10 a.m.: Hearing on how mobile payments could change financial services, at the House Financial Services subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit.

2 p.m.: Hearing on the Verizon /quotes/zigman/262341/quotes/nls/vz VZ -0.05%  cable deals and the impact on competition and consumers, at the Senate Judiciary subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights.

4 p.m.: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans presents paper of the effects of FOMC Forward Guidance, at the Brookings Institution.

Friday, March 23
All day: Federal Reserve Board conference on “Before During and After the Crisis,” first of two days, at Fed headquarters.

10 a.m.: New home sales for February, released by the Commerce Department.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-17 23:11 | 显示全部楼层
Monday 19 March: Auction to settle Greek credit default swaps after credit event.

Tuesday 20 March: Spanish and Greek T-bill auctions.

Wednesday 21 March: UK Budget. German bond auction. Portugal T-bill auction.

Thursday 22 March: Flash euro-zone March PMI data. General strike in Portugal.

Friday 23 March: New deadline for exchange offer of Greek bonds under foreign law and bonds issued by state-owned companies.

Wednesday 28 March: Allotment of ECB three-month long-term refinancing operation. Italian T-bill auction.

Thursday 29 March: Italian bond auction. Spain's main labor union to hold general strike.

Friday 30 March: Euro-zone finance ministers meet. Euro-area March inflation data. Spanish government due to present 2012 budget.

Saturday 31 March: Deadline for Irish government to repay Euro 3.1bn in promissory notes.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-19 15:15 | 显示全部楼层

Threat to Chinese tourist spending boom

Commentary: Winners and losers from luxury tax cut

Last year Chinese tourists bought almost two-thirds of luxury goods sold in Europe as they went on a record spending-spree.

But while mainlanders are happy to splurge on foreign soil, what their government needs is for them to open the purse strings at home. Domestic consumption has shrunk to just 36% of gross domestic product and is increasingly the weak link in China’s growth.

One step to redress this spending imbalance is to cut penal mainland taxes on consumption and luxury goods. Analysts say such a move now looks likely.

This could have far-reaching consequences for one of the biggest investment stories of recent years — outbound spending by mainland tourists.

Everyone from retailers in Hong Kong, to London or Seoul could feel the fallout, while foreign luxury brands seeking to expand in China should be buoyed by any duty cut.

Expectations that a move is imminent were fuelled by widely reported comments earlier this month by former deputy commerce minister Wei Jianguo, to expect at least two rounds of reductions on import taxes on consumer and luxury goods. Then, this past weekend Finance Minister Xie Xuren promised to improve China’s consumption tax.

Among the spending habits likely to catch authorities attention say Credit Suisse is the revelation that Chinese residents spent 300 billion yuan ($47.4 billion) overseas on their bank cards in 2011, up 66.7% on a year earlier, according to data from China UnionPay.

And as well as accounting for 62% of all luxury consumer sales in Europe last year, mainland shoppers spent a whopping $7.2 billion during the recent Lunar Year holiday, up 28.6% on the previous year according to the World Luxury Association.

If you look at existing tax rates in China, it is easy to see why shopping overseas is so popular.

Import duties on general luxury products range from 10%-25%, and can be as high as 35%-60% on luxury cosmetic products and alcohol. Add on value-added tax (17%) and a consumption tax depending on the merchandise and prices on the mainland are penal. According to a survey by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, prices for luxury goods in China are 45% higher than in Hong Kong, 51% higher than the U.S. and 72% higher than France.

If these taxes were designed to promote social fairness and curb bourgeoisie shopping habits by targeting rich consumers, they appear to be missing the mark — luxury spending at home is just being diverted overseas by globe trotting mainlanders.

Another reason to expect action on taxes is the government’s recent focus on boosting growth through domestic consumption. This past weekend in Beijing Vice Premier Li Keqiang said expanding domestic demand is a “strategic point” for economic development. Another official played up China’s readiness to import, predicting it may soon become the world’s largest importer.

This eagerness to import, however, comes at a time when China just recorded a monthly trade deficit in February of $31.5 billion. With export growth expected to remain relatively weak, this provides another reason for authorities to be less sanguine about yuan leaking abroad through unchecked tourist spending.

Meanwhile, it is also worth considering that for many mainlanders, shopping abroad is not just about getting a tax-free bargain.

China’s capital controls and limited domestic investment options mean luxury shopping often fulfills various secondary needs.

In Macau, for instance, purchasing luxury goods can be a handy way to access hard cash. A typical story is a mainlander shopper can buy an expensive handbag or watch on their credit card, which can then be sold back for something like 90% of the value in cash.

In fact, luxury handbags have almost become a money substitute. Milan Station Holdings Ltd. /quotes/zigman/5085302 HK:1150 -1.97% , a chain of shops that trades second-hand handbags even listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange last year, which gives you an idea how big this business is.

This, as well as a preference by many mainlanders to conceal conspicuous luxury shopping overseas, means old shopping habits could be hard to change.

If we do get a cut in luxury taxes, Credit Suisse, say luxury brands who import their goods into China will benefit such as Prada, Coach, Hugo Boss, LVMH or Tiffany.

The flip side, they add, is that for the retail and tourism industries that have benefitted from outbound Chinese tourists, any reduction in import tariffs will be incrementally negative.

On the list of potential casualties is Hong Kong, Macau, South Korea to retailers in Europe. Hong Kong could be particularly vulnerable given 28 million mainland tourists visited last year (four times its population) and its huge concentration of luxury retail brands — Louis Vuitton has seven stores in the city, one more than Paris.

This comes at a time the government is building everything from new bridges to high speed rail links to whisk ever more mainland tourists into town. Hong Kong had better hope it will still be able to offer bargains.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-19 21:01 | 显示全部楼层
Something to watch out for later today 19March, and in the next couple of weeks. The European Financial Stability Facility (the EU's bailout vehicle) is pricing an auction Euro 4.5bn of 20-year bonds, that will take place later this month.

This is the longest length security that the EFSF has ever auctioned , and should be a good test of long-term investor confidence.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-24 10:35 | 显示全部楼层
Monday, March 26
8 a.m.: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke addresses the National Association of Business Economists.

10 a.m.: Supreme Court hears arguments on the constitutionality of President Barack Obama’s health-care law.

Tuesday, March 27
10 a.m.: Consumer confidence for March, released by the Conference Board.

10 a.m.: Hearing on monetary policy, and the benefits of a sound dollar, at the Joint Economic Committee.

12:45 p.m.: Bernanke gives third of four lectures at George Washington University, on Fed and its role in the financial crisis.

2:45 p.m.: Hearing to examine renewable energy tax incentives and the effect on the U.S. renewable energy industry, at the Senate Finance subcommittee on Energy, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure.

Wednesday, March 28
8:30 a.m.: Durable-goods orders for February, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Hearing on accounting and auditing oversight, and emerging issues for regulators and the economy, at the House Financial Services subcommittee on Capital Markets and Government Sponsored Enterprises.

2:30 p.m.: Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies on the administration’s response to the foreclosure crisis and mounting student loan debt, at the Senate Appropriations subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government.

Thursday, March 29
8:30 a.m.: Weekly unemployment claims, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Fourth-quarter gross domestic product, released by the Commerce Department.

9:30 a.m.: Hearing on current and near-term future price expectations for gasoline and other refined petroleum fuels, at the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee.

9:30 a.m.: Hearing on the semi-annual report of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, at the House Financial Services Committee.

10 a.m.: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley testifies on the Fed’s aid to the Eurozone, and its impact on the U.S. the and dollar, at the House Financial Services subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology.

12:45 p.m.: Fed Chairman Bernanke gives final lecture at George Washington University.

Friday, March 30
8:30 a.m.: Pesonal income and consumer spending for February, released by Labor Department.

9:45 a.m.: Manufacturing activity in Chicago in March, released by the Institute for Supply Management.

9:55 a.m.: Consumer sentiment for March, released by the University of Michigan and Reuters.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-24 11:00 | 显示全部楼层
a two day meeting of European finance ministers to discuss the size of the bailout fund, UK fourth quarter GDP figures, Germany's IFO index which measures business sentiment, Eurozone inflation data, and bond auctions from Spain and Italy.

Friday 23 March: New deadline for exchange offer of Greek bonds under foreign law and bonds issued by state-owned companies. ECB may issue announcement of its approval of Ireland's deferral of
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-26 21:36 | 显示全部楼层

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-11-11 21:44 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-26 21:39 | 显示全部楼层

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-11-21 19:40 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-26 21:45 | 显示全部楼层

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-11-21 23:17 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-30 11:25 | 显示全部楼层

hate static price targets!

Most of the research we read or see on TV is a bureaucratized and sanitized version of analysis.  The firm determines something, and that is the official version for public consumption.  Those who pay no attention to changing conditions add no value for investors.

Did you notice that things are better in Europe?  That economic data have improved?

If not, perhaps you have the wrong approach to your research.  You need to be flexible, responding to new information.  Most of those who claim success at market timing are exaggerating.  If you missed this prior article that showed how to check track records, please take a look.


A big-time firm sets a price target for a stock.  The stock rallies and hits the target.  Then they move the target up by 20%.  How helpful is that?

Suppose it goes the other way.  The stock sells off and the firm lowers the target while retaining a "buy" rating.  How helpful is that?

This is why I do not follow analyst price targets for stocks.  I review their research and I draw my own conclusions.  I revise my price targets each week.  I review my most recent expectations for corporate earnings and cash flow and compare this to the current price, the market multiple for similar stocks, the multiple for the overall market, and the return from alternative investments.

Isn't that what you would do if you took the time?

I described the flawed process of big firms in this article from 2010.  By contrast, I described my own approach for our Great Stocks program:

"Analyst reports can be very helpful.  There is a lot of information about the business model, recent trends, and risk factors.  Reading several reports can help in identifying the consensus, especially what the analyst community is worried about.  Knowing these concerns can help you anticipate upgrades and downgrades.

I use the raw data to set my own target prices, and I review the targets frequently.  I select stocks with a target that is at least 25% higher and with attention to near-term catalysts and risks.  I have found that this is a good level for a goal, understanding that it will be achieved only some of the time.  Trying for home runs is tempting, but not as effective.

I almost never own a stock at the time it hits a target.  This may seem strange, but consider two cases:

If the stock makes a big move, but the fundamentals have not changed, it no longer has the potential for an additional 25% gain over the next twelve months.  I sell and move on to something that meets my criteria.  I sell these stocks before the target is reached.
If the stock makes a big move and the fundamentals keep pace, the target is moving as rapidly as the stock price.  This enables me to hold stocks like Apple."

Current Investment Implications

As the first quarter of 2012 draws to a close, there is a fierce competition to call the market top.  I watch the entire spectrum of opinion closely.  At the risk of oversimplifying, I will suggest two broad viewpoints:

Those with a static market target.  These observers started the year with an idea and they will not be budged!  Members of this group share some or all of the following characteristics:

Using prices from ten years ago to determine current market values;
Excessive fixation on calendar effects;
Excessive attention to the length of past market cycles;
Substituting fake data (what they personally believe interest rates SHOULD be, what they think profit margins SHOULD be, using the discredited Shadow Stats, complaining about seasonal adjustments, and making other assorted excuses);
Over-emphasis on debt and austerity;  and most importantly....
Embracing a political viewpoint that excuses all other analytical mistakes.
Those who remain flexible.  These observers are watchful and wary, but open to new data.  Members of this group share some or all of the following characteristics:

Monitoring earnings expectations as the best guide for future stock prices;
Using long-term data as the basis for establishing earnings growth and profit margins;
Understanding that there is no set time for a market cycle.  A deep recession may take a longer recovery period.  We might only be in the third inning of the recovery.
Accepting the reality of new data.  No Excuses!  No changing of methods.  No rejection of seasonal adjustments after always using them in the past.  Not starting with a pre-conception and ignoring contrary evidence;
Recognizing progress.  If a few months ago you thought that there was systemic risk from Europe and there would be a deep recession there, did you modify  your market viewpoint when this did not happen?  The successful investor constantly adjusts for risk, using indicators like the St. Louis Financial Stress Index;
Ignoring politics.  This is true whichever party is in power.  It is part of the electoral process for the "outs" to disparage any signs of progress.  If you want to succeed as an investor, you learn to ignore this background noise.
Conclusion and Current Ideas

The two profiles provide a sharp contrast.  Which fits your own approach?

There are many stocks that are attractive despite higher prices?  Why?  The earnings potential has grown faster than the price, and the risk is lower.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-30 11:56 | 显示全部楼层
We are about to hit a very busy few days for global financial markets as we count down to the Easter break next weekend.

Tonight 3/30 in the US sees monthly personal income and spending data along with consumer sentiment and fund managers will be madly book-squaring and window-dressing for the end of the March quarter. Tonight also sees the start of a two-day meeting of EU finance ministers to discuss further contributions to firewall funding for the eurozone. And on Sunday China will release its official manufacturing PMI for March.

4/2The first trading day of the month always brings the round of global monthly manufacturing PMIs while Beijing just sticks to the first of the month, not quite understanding what a weekend is. So on Monday we'll see PMIs from Australia, the eurozone, UK and US ahead of a crowded week of economic releases and statements.

China releases its services PMI on Tuesday 4/3 and everyone else on Wednesday 4/4, while Australia will also see building approvals, retail sales and the trade balance across the week. The US will release construction spending, factory orders and chain store sales and it's also unemployment week, which means the ADP private sector jobs number on the Wednesday 4/4 and non-farm payrolls on the Friday 4/6.

Friday is actually Good, which means the US jobs numbers will be released when the markets are closed 4/6. Markets will also be closed for Good Friday in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and the UK.

It will also be a big week for central bank policy ahead of the chocolate orgy, with the Fed releasing the minutes of its last meeting on Tuesday 4/3 (to QE3 or not to QE3?), the ECB issuing a policy update on Wednesday 4/4 and Bank of England following suit on Thursday 4/5.

The RBA will also make a rate decision, on Tuesday 4/3. The markets are suggesting a rate cut is a 50/50 bet but I wouldn't take that, feeling Glenn Stevens is more likely to have a closer look in May after the quarterly inflation data have been posted.

Global economy slowing? Well, next week should offer plenty of evidence one way or the other. And the weekend may determine whether or not we can all get nervous again about Europe.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-3-30 13:38 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-30 15:32 | 显示全部楼层
Many markets were on a tear in the first quarter. But the year’s start wasn’t kind to all.
Shanghai Composite (CN:000001)+2.6%
Nikkei Stock Average (JP:10000018)+19.3%
Hang Seng Index (HK:HSI)+11.2%
S&P/ASX 200 (AU:XJO)+6.9%
Kospi (KR:0100)+10.4%
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-31 11:27 | 显示全部楼层

Washington events for April 2 - 6

Monday, April 2

10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management releases its manufacturing report for March.

10 a.m.: U.S. construction spending report for February, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: St. Louis Fed president James Bullard releases presentation he made at a closed-door forum in Beijing.

12:35 p.m.: Cleveland Fed president Sandra Pianalto speech on Fed policy at Economic Roundtable of the Ohio Valley in Marietta, Ohio.

U.S. House and Senate on recess until April 16.

President Barack Obama meets the leaders of Canada and Mexico for the North American Leaders summit.

Tuesday, April 3

10 a.m.: U.S. factory orders report for February, released by the Commerce Department.

2 p.m.: Federal Open Market Committee minutes.

4 p.m.: San Francisco Fed president John Williams economic briefing to students at University of San Diego.

The District of Columbia, Maryland and Wisconsin hold presidential primary elections.

Wednesday, April 4

8 a.m.: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speaks to the Economic Club of Chicago.

8:15 a.m.: ADP employment report for March.

10 a.m.: ISM services report for March.

11 a.m.: San Francisco Fed president John Williams gives speech to San Francisco Planning and Urban Research business breakfast series.

Thursday, April 5

8:30 a.m.: Weekly U.S. jobless claims, released by the Labor Department.

9:10 a.m.: St. Louis Fed president James Bullard speaks about the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

Friday, April 6

8:30 a.m.: U.S. nonfarm payroll report for March, released by the Labor Department.

3 p.m.: U.S. consumer credit for February, released by the Federal Reserve.
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发表于 2012-4-1 20:30 | 显示全部楼层

[ 本帖最后由 春夏秋冬 于 2012-4-1 20:50 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-1 22:17 | 显示全部楼层





















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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-1 22:20 | 显示全部楼层




"货币主义者回来了,"野村的分析师Jens Sondergaard表示.他回忆道,当初成立欧洲央行的时候,德国人就促使其采取了双支柱策略,即不仅要关注经济,而且要关注货币供应.













去年11月当欧央行策划LTRO时,经济学家Gert Peersman在写给央行的一份论文中称,这类政策举措对经济活动和通胀的全面影响,要比利率走势晚六个月才会反映出来.












Berenberg银行分析师Christian Schulz认为有进一步的风险,因意大利总理蒙堤有可能无法全面推动就业市场改革,且希腊和法国的大选都是可能令市场焦躁不安的事件.







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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-1 22:34 | 显示全部楼层
希腊政府发言人Pantelis Kapsis3月26日表示,希腊将在4月底至5月中旬期间举行大选。据财华社报道,Kapsis向私人电视台Antenna表示,大选可能在4月29日、5月6日或5月13日举行。


法国大选初轮选举日期 4月22日?
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-4 16:59 | 显示全部楼层





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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-4 17:07 | 显示全部楼层



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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-4 17:19 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-4 20:46 | 显示全部楼层

The calm before the EU storm

Commentary: China and U.S. would like crisis to be past its peak

There are some powerful reasons of self-interest why the U.S. and China might wish to spread the word that the European sovereign debt crisis is past its peak. But you shouldn’t necessarily believe them.

After the quick burst of first-quarter optimism over the European Central Bank’s liquidity injections, governments and markets are coming down to earth. This was underscored by European Union officials’ warning to finance ministers on Friday that the underlying causes of the crisis have not been resolved.

The world’s two biggest economies are doing all they can to avoid rocking the boat. But will it be enough? China, confronting higher domestic production costs, a stronger yuan and more fragile markets for its exports all over the world, wishes to avoid a weaker euro exacerbating its growth slowdown.

In the U.S., ahead of the November elections, President Barack Obama has no desire to upset the euro, hoping that a semblance of order on European financial markets will shore up global confidence, prolong the improvement in U.S. labor markets and help him hang on to the White House.

Washington has told Berlin (and anyone else who may be listening) to ensure the European turbulence is firmly under control during the poll run-up. The quid pro quo is that the Americans, for one, will not demonstrate openly their obvious qualms about the European recovery process.

Whether the strategy will work is not at all clear. Behind the scenes, both China and the U.S. are almost equally worried about how slowly Europe is steering out of trouble. There is talk that Europe’s banks need to deleverage to the tune of $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion in the next two years. Where’s the money going to come from? The increase in the euro state’s bailout fund to 700 billion euros decided on Friday would not be enough, especially since it is concentrated on the sovereign states and not the banks.

Much criticism concerns lack of German leadership. Nothing much can be done about this, it seems. The Germans have an aversion about leading. As Prof. Michael Stürmer, the well-known German historian and commentator, puts it, Germany doesn’t even have a word for “leadership”. Since Hitler, “Führung” and “Führer” are not well regarded.

Indeed, in relation to any kind of effort to prop up the euro edifice, “Merkel’s Law of Permanent Disappointment” has come into play — as the long-standing debate over increasing the bailout funds has underlined. The German chancellor will always do more than she originally promised to help out errant states, but the funds committed will always be less than necessary to solve the euro’s problems once and for all. So people on both sides of the argument, whether conservative German voters or the financial markets or the hard-up states themselves, will always be disappointed — for equal and opposite reasons.

The Chinese and Americans are concerned about the ECB’s lack of full-scale commitment to euro rescue action. Again, there is not much opportunity for change here. With the Bundesbank leading complaints from the sidelines about the ECB’s fall from a pure form of central banking independence, the hawks on the ECB council are starting a campaign for an “exit” from the ECB’s liquidity injections. Observers in Washington say this is mightily premature and shows up Europe’s hesitancy and lack of resolve about what do to.

Meanwhile Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank president, is leading the charge of the hard money brigade. In an uncompromising speech in London this week, he used possibly the most florid phrase ever coined by a Bundesbank president, saying the “wall of money” erected around Europe’s financial problems would, like the Tower of Babel “never reach heaven.”

Weidmann’s message is clear. In coming months, the temporary factors that have calmed the landscape will retreat from view. What we now see is the calm before the storm.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-4 21:16 | 显示全部楼层





















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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-8 23:30 | 显示全部楼层

“sell in May and go away.”

Equities are likely to reel from a disappointing U.S. jobs report. Investors will be back at their desks after the long Easter weekend faced with a busy calendar that includes important macroeconomic data in China and the start of the first-quarter earnings season in the U.S. Read more about the potential for a pullback in the stock market.

The week will also bring speeches by Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Ben Bernanke.

“We could have a challenging opening of the week,” and the question will become whether the recent and “long overdue” equity pullback is likely to continue, said Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist with Standard & Poor’s in New York.

Monday will be the first opportunity for equity investors to react to the weaker-than-expected jobs data, released on Friday. U.S. stock futures fell sharply on Friday after the data, indicating a potential selloff when trading resumes Monday. Read more about stock futures.

The U.S. economy created only 120,000 jobs in March, well below market expectations. Hiring failed to top 200,000 for the first time since November. The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since January 2009, but only because people dropped out of the labor force. Read more about the jobs report.

Reaction to the jobs report is likely to be limited to Monday, said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International in Newark, N.J. By the time the opening bell rings on Monday, investors will have had three days to digest the bad news, and the focus is likely to shift to Bernanke’s speech later on Monday, Praveen said.

On Monday evening, the Fed chief will deliver a speech on fostering financial stability at a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in Stone Mountain, Georgia. Analysts at Deutsche Bank said Bernanke may make comments on the latest employment data.

And on Friday, Bernanke will speak at a conference in New York on the crisis and the policy response to it.

The weak jobs report may breathe new life into hopes for another round of large-scale bond purchases by the Fed — hopes that had been dashed this week by minutes from the central bank’s latest policy meeting.

That could provide support for equities, analysts said.

Beige Book, China GDP on tap
Investors will also grapple with a busy U.S. economic calendar, which includes the Fed’s Beige Book on current economic conditions, due on Wednesday, as well as consumer prices and consumer sentiment, due on Friday.

Macroeconomic data from China will also be scrutinized. Chinese reports due next week include gross domestic product and industrial production.

GDP growth in China is expected to have slowed to an annual rate of 8% in the first quarter, according to analysts at Commerzbank.

After a pair of recent weak macroeconomic reports, investors have grown more concerned about China and fear its economy may be slowing down, worries reflected in a trounce for commodities in the past week.

Alcoa to kick off earnings season
Aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. /quotes/zigman/246295/quotes/nls/aa AA -1.83%  will kick off the first-quarter earnings season with a report after the closing bell on Tuesday.

Among other corporate heavyweights, Google Inc. /quotes/zigman/93888/quotes/nls/goog GOOG -0.45%  will report results on Thursday, and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. /quotes/zigman/272085/quotes/nls/jpm JPM -0.16%  and Wells Fargo & Co. /quotes/zigman/239557/quotes/nls/wfc WFC -0.44%  on Friday.

Earnings are expected to be “fairly decent,” said Jeff Schwarte, portfolio manager at Principal Global Equities in Iowa. Investors will be particularly eager to hear more about the outlook, as they will try to gauge the sustainability of the recent stock rally, he added.

There’s potential for “positive surprises” on the earnings front, said Brad Sorensen, director of market and sector research at Charles Schwab in San Francisco.

While last week’s pullback in equities could be extended, “the trend for the economy and the stock market continues to be relatively positive,” Sorensen said.

U.S. stocks notched losses for the week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA -0.11%  down 1.2% in the five-day period ended Friday. The S&P 500 Index /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX -0.06%  dropped 0.7% on the week, and the Nasdaq Composite /quotes/zigman/123127 COMP +0.40%  posted a weekly loss of 0.4%.

S&P’s Stovall said that of the ten sectors in the S&P 500, six are expected to report on-year negative earnings growth, with telecommunications and materials among the worst performers. Best sectors may include industrials, with on-year projected growth of 10%, followed by financials, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples, he said.

All in all, the quarter is likely to show “lackluster” performance, with defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples some of the best places to remain invested through the rest of the year, Stovall said.

That old adage — sell in May and go away — might “come a little early this year,” he said.

Tuesday, April 10
7:30 a.m.: National Federation of Independent Businesses releases the NFIB small-business index for March.

10 a.m.: Wholesale trade for February, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Job openings for February, released by the Labor Department.

Wednesday, April 11
8:30 a.m.: Import prices for March, released by the Commerce Department.

2 p.m.: Beige Book report on regional economic conditions, released by the Federal Reserve Board.

2 p.m.: Federal budget for March, released by the Treasury Department.

Thursday, April 12
8:30 a.m.: Weekly unemployment claims, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Producer prices for March, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Trade balance for February, released by the Commerce Department.

Friday, April 13
8:30 a.m.: Consumer prices for March, released by the Labor Department.

9:55 a.m.: UMich consumer sentiment for April, released by UMich/Reuters.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-12 17:55 | 显示全部楼层

March New Loan

"Today's data mean that the chance of rate cut is very small in the near future," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu in comments emailed to clients. He said the lending data suggested "loan demand came back after banks cut lending rates, new investment projects got started and the coldest winter in 27 years [is] behind us."
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-12 17:58 | 显示全部楼层

  中银国际宏观分析师李涛表示,4月到6月间,公开市场到期资金分别为3940亿元、1420亿元和990亿元;未来四周公开市场到期资金量较大,分别为1310亿元、1050 亿元、730亿和520亿元。但是目前美元仍然处于强势,4月份的外汇占款难以出现大幅回升,考虑到4月份3000-4000亿元的财政存款增长和存款增长带来的准备金需求,4月末的超储水平将下降到2%附近。而在5月份,随着公开市场到期资金量的下降和财政存款的持续增长,超储水平还将持续下降。面对3份通胀环比攀升,同比反弹的局面,预计央行短期内将维持存准率不变,但是随着流动性的逐步收紧,在4月末下调存准率的概率较大。
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-4-12 18:02 | 显示全部楼层
The World Bank on Thursday cut its 2012 China growth forecast to 8.2%, lowering its outlook from January's 8.4% estimate. It said a gradual slowdown was unfolding amid a sharp deceleration in investment growth, softening consumption growth and weak global demand. In its quarterly update report the World Bank said China should guard against a hard landing through fiscal policies designed to support consumption. The Washington-based agency said cutting banks' reserve requirements would be one way to ease credit availability. However, it also said that China's central bank should resist cutting interest rates for the time being, and instead hold such policy actions in reserve in case of a sharper downturn, It noted that real interest rates in China were already accommodative. Among risk factors, the World Bank cited China's housing market downturn and disruptions to growth in Europe and other high-income economies
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-5-19 12:36 | 显示全部楼层

Washington events for May 21 - 25

Monday, May 21
House of Representatives out of town on visits to home districts all week

11:30 a.m.: Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler discusses derivatives reform and the Dodd-Frank Act, at the 2012 Financial Industry Regulatory Authority annual conference; first for three days for the FINRA conference.

8:15 p.m.: President Obama delivers commencement speech at Joplin High School graduation ceremony, Joplin, Mo.

Tuesday, May 22
10 a.m.: Existing home sales for April, released by the National Association of Realtors.

10 a.m.: Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Schapiro and CFTC Chairman Gensler testify on derivatives reform, reducing systemic risk and improving market oversight, at the Senate Banking Committee

Wednesday, May 23
10 a.m.: New home sales for April, released by the Commerce Department.

2 p.m.: Hearing on the U.S.-China strategic and economic dialogue, at the Senate Banking subcommittee on Security and International Trade and Finance.

Thursday, May 24
8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, released by the Commerce Department.

8:30 a.m.: Durable goods orders for April, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Hearing on mortgage refinance proposals, at the Senate Banking Committee.

Friday, May 25
9:55 a.m.: Consumer sentiment index for May, released by University of Michigan and Reuters.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-5-19 12:41 | 显示全部楼层

Greece says Merkel asked for euro referendum

Group of Eight to focus on managing euro crisis, Obama says

Greek officials reportedly said Friday that Germany’s chancellor proposed that Athens hold a referendum on its membership in the euro, an assertion that was later denied by Berlin, just as Group of Eight leaders prepared to discuss the region’s debt crisis.

In a phone call with the Greek president on Friday, German leader Angela Merkel suggested that Greece could have a referendum on the euro when it holds national elections in June, according to media reports, which cited a statement from the office of the Greek caretaker prime minister.

Whether she actually did make the proposal is in doubt — a German government spokesperson denied it, but Greek officials then reiterated that Merkel made such a suggestion.

In the wake of the news, the three biggest parties in Greece criticized Merkel for meddling in the nation’s affairs, according to reports.

Merkel’s reported proposal comes just as questions are growing about whether Greece may exit the euro given its precarious economic and financial situation.

Greece has received financial aid from its euro-zone partners in exchange for severe austerity measures. To keep getting this aid, Greece must keep implementing the measures it has promised, which has become harder and harder as the nation’s recession has deepened.

Greece is due to hold a new election on June 17 after party leaders were unable to form a coalition government in the wake of the last election which produced splintered results.

In Washington, meanwhile, President Barack Obama said Friday that G-8 leaders will focus on managing the euro-zone crisis at their talks over the weekend. Obama made the comments after a meeting at the White House with newly-elected French President Francois Hollande. The two leaders agreed that the crisis is important to the world economy, Obama said.

The G-8 meeting will start on Friday evening at the Camp David presidential mountain retreat, with discussions on the European debt crisis due to take place Saturday morning.

Hollande, a Socialist who defeated Nicolas Sarkozy in the French election, met earlier in the week with Merkel in Berlin, where they both stressed their desire to keep the euro zone together. But there are some tensions between the French and German positions, because of Germany’s focus on strict austerity measures as a way to resolve the crisis, while Hollande won the French election with a message of additional growth stimulus.

White House officials have welcomed the new emphasis on growth and said Obama would seek to build a consensus between Merkel and Hollande.

After the White House meeting, Hollande said that he and Obama share the same conviction that Greece should remain in the euro zone.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-5-19 12:51 | 显示全部楼层
Meanwhile, China’s growth worries weighed on mining and other sectors. Media outlets said a report from China’s State Information Center, a government think tank, said annual growth could slow to 7.5% in the second quarter, owing to property-sector curbs and global headwinds.
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