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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-1 21:35 | 显示全部楼层
China’s super-ego bubble will collapse, like Rome, all great nations
Yes, China’s hot economy will crash and burn in the coming years. It is the “World’s Greatest Market” today. But they are also the “World’s Greatest Egomaniacs.” They will self-destruct. Why? Simple math, psychology, history: Bubbles always pop.

In “Zero-Sum Future,” Gideon Rachman sees a global paradigm shift, says the New York Times. A “win-win” optimism that dominated the world from 1991 to 2008, where “everyone benefited from growing wealth,” has been “replaced by a zero-sum game in which one nation’s benefit comes at another’s expense.”

Get it? China wins. America loses. Except this new game is rigged. Both are linked as “Chinamerica.” But in a delicate balance with all nations: One collapses, all collapse.

China’s economy looks fabulous today: Not only will it be bigger than America’s in the next decade, by 2040 China’s GDP will reach $123 trillion, estimates Nobel economist Robert Fogel in Foreign Policy. In fact, China will be three times bigger than the entire GDP of the world back in 2000, going from a “poor country” back then to “super rich” nation with a $85,000 per-capita income. By 2040 China will have 40% of global GDP, compared with America’s 14%.

Quite a reversal: Back in 2000 America’s GDP was 22% of the world’s, China just 11%.

Still, gambling with Jim Rogers on China (and against America) is a bad bet. Here’s why: Both history and psychology warn of a global collapse coming, not just in China, although they are leading the way with raging growth.

Remember: “one of the disturbing facts of history is that so many civilizations collapse,” warns environmental anthropologist, Jared Diamond, author of “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed.” “Civilizations share a sharp curve of decline. Indeed, a society’s demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth and power.”

China’s population growth igniting huge commodities bubble
Population is the ticking time-bomb, accelerant, tipping point, the trigger. The United Nations predicts that by 2050 world population will reach 10 billion from 7 billion today. But many experts warn that the planet’s resources cannot feed 10 billion people.

While America adds 120 million by 2050 for a 400 million total, China will add 320 million for a 1.4 billion total. And India will add 600 million to top at around 1.5 billion. Meanwhile, experts warn that a global population over 8 billion is inviting collapse.

So China can’t wait. America can’t wait. The world cannot wait that long to start planning for a civilization-ending catastrophe. But sadly, they will wait, till it’s too late. An ancient historical pattern is repeating. Rome collapsed fast. Why? Throughout history, tone-deaf politicians believe their own press releases, ignore obvious warning signs, fail to plan.

Remember Fortune magazine’s report on a 2003 Pentagon study that predicted “climate could change radically and fast,” creating “the mother of all national security issues.” Population unrest would result in “massive droughts, turning farmland into dust bowls and forests to ashes.” And “by 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening” with warfare defining human life.”

China’s ‘buying up the world … shopping spree’
Which bring us back to China and a Time magazine warning: “Be Very Afraid of The China. Its economy grew on real estate mania and easy money — does this sound familiar.” Worse, China’s arrogant leaders are now convinced that America has fatally sabotaged itself the past decade, handing China the role as the world’s superpower.

In fact, China is closer to collapse than America. USA Today warns of America’s “Latest Export to China: The American Dream.” They are infected with our “virus.” And the new “Chinese Dream” is turning into a nightmare of capitalist greed.

Financial historian Niall Ferguson warns that while China is “gloating on our misfortunes” they are ignoring their domestic problems, pollution, real estate costs, market speculation, wages, employment, overpopulation, and more. China’s “headed for a collapse of its own.”

China’s recent high-speed train crash is a metaphor of an out-of-control ideology. Their exploding population is depleting more and more commodity resources, prompting BusinessWeek to ask: “Is China Inc. intent on buying the world? It sure looks that way,” calling the trend “China’s Shopping Spree.”

China is obsessed, blindly planning ahead to feed, clothe and house 300 million more people, fast. Imagine the social disruption of building 100 new cities the size of Chicago … in one generation. With no plans to slow down their exploding population and economy, China is guaranteed to trigger a global collapse.

China’s leaders, blinded by a global empire-building obsession
In late 2010 The Economist ran a similar cover story: “Buying Up The World: The Coming Wave of Chinese Takeovers.” Yes, China’s already buying huge commodity-resource rights on every continent. BusinessWeek described one such acquisition this way: “The deal is simple: Australia gets money, China gets Australia.” Yes, an entire continent. Warning, selfishly hoarding the world’s commodities will backfire.

Ironically, China’s buying with a trillion in surplus reserve dollars they got funding our wars and credit-card debt. Example: in one two-month “Shopping Spree” a “car maker Beijing Automotive and appliance giant Haier have invested or shown interest in investing in oil fields in Iraq, GM’s Opel car business in Germany, an upscale appliance maker in New Zealand, and a Japanese department store.”

Then China’s “Sinopec paid more than $7 billion for a Swiss oil company,” and also made a “rumored bid for a Spanish-owned Argentine oil producer that would be twice that.” China is now more capitalistic than Wall Street’s too-greedy-to-fail banks.

Short China, hedge fund guru warns investors
But the questions linger: Should you buy stock in China Inc.? Buy into China’s raging commodity business?

Hedge manager Jim Chanos has been reading the tea leaves for a long time and sees too heavy a government footprint in their economy: crony capitalism, state-owned companies favorites, massive municipal debt, overbuilding of luxury condos, stadiums, poor construction, environmental pollution, lax regulations, subsidized prices, bad accounting, currency manipulation, and more.

Chanos has been warning investors to ignore the hype. He tells BusinessWeek investors to “Short China,” this bubble is collapsing.

China’s leaders ‘driving a fast new sports car off a cliff’
Diamond says we need leaders with “the courage to practice long-term thinking, and to make bold, courageous, anticipatory decisions at a time when problems have become perceptible but before they reach crisis proportions.”

Unfortunately, history warns us that leaders are too often self-interested, short-term thinkers, lacking courage and interest in the future. They rarely plan far enough ahead. Eventually they’re caught off-guard, and their worlds collapse, often fast. They respond best during crises, but invariably with too little, too late, as another civilization dies.

Niall Ferguson put it this way: What if history is “at times almost stationary but also capable of accelerating suddenly, like a sports car? What if collapse does not arrive over a number of centuries but comes suddenly, like a thief in the night?”

But does it matter if China collapses before America? No. Either one will take down the other, igniting a global collapse. But our bets are China’s first, those obsessed power-hungry ego-maniacs have convinced us they’re the loudest ticking time-bomb.
So protect yourself, invest in America … and “Short China.”
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-5 22:11 | 显示全部楼层

Washington events for Feb. 6 - 10

Monday, Feb. 6
No major news events or economic data scheduled.

Tuesday, Feb. 7
Colorado and Minnesota hold their presidential nominating caucuses.

10 a.m.: Job openings in November, released by the Labor Department.

10 a.m.: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on the Fed’s outlook for U.S. monetary and fiscal policy.

2:30 p.m.: Hearing on reauthorizing the payroll tax cut, at the Joint Economic Committee.

3 p.m.: Consumer credit for December released by the Federal Reserve.

Wednesday, Feb. 8
9 a.m.: Hearing on the interaction of tax and financial accounting on tax reform, at the House Ways and Means Committee.

10 a.m.: Hearing on legislative proposals to increase transparency at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, at the House Financial Services subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit.

Thursday, Feb. 9
Conservative Political Action Conference holds annual meeting; speakers include presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, first of three days.

8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, released by the Labor Department.

10 a.m.: Wholesale inventories for December, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Hearing on the state of the housing market and how to remove barriers to its recovery, at the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.

10 a.m.: Hearing to examine income inequality, mobility and opportunity, at the Senate Budget Committee.

10 a.m.: Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research Director Janet Woodcock and others testify at hearing on proposed generic drug user fees and current drug shortages, at the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee on Health.

Noon: Nuclear Regulatory Commission meets to consider Southern Co.’s /quotes/zigman/241351/quotes/nls/so SO +0.05%  request to build two nuclear power plants in eastern Georgia, at NRC headquarters.

12:30 p.m.: Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti discusses the economic situation in his country, Europe and the effects on the global economy, at the Peterson Institute.

Friday, Feb. 10
8:30 a.m.: Trade deficit in December, released by the Commerce Department.

9:55 a.m.: Consumer sentiment for February, released by UMich/Reuters.

12:30 p.m.: Fed Chairman Bernanke discusses the state of the housing market, at the National Association of Homebuilders International Builders’ Show, in Orlando, Fla.

2 p.m.: Federal deficit for January, released by the Treasury Department.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-5 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
Asian investors will be waiting for Chinese consumer price data in the week ahead to gauge the likelihood of more monetary policy easing from Beijing.

Economists widely expect the data, due Thursday, to show Chinese consumer prices moderated to grow at around 4% in January on an annual basis. That would represent an easing from the 4.1% growth recorded in December.

Consumer-price inflation cooled in December, compared to November, and investors are likely hoping for a further decline in consumer prices in order to clear the way for further loosening in Chinese monetary policy to support economic growth.

Concerns about the health of the Chinese economy linger, with last week’s manufacturing survey data from China showing a slight improvement but also indicating that the sector remains sluggish.

The inflation numbers will be followed by Chinese trade data on Friday.

The health of the Chinese economy is of particular interest to Australia’s policy makers, given that China imports an outsized proportion of Australian commodities.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest-rate-setting committee is set to announce a decision on interest rates early next week, and many economists expect another quarter-point interest rate cut from the central bank at its first meeting of the year.

The RBA’s key cash rate currently stands at 4.25%, having been cut twice in quick succession at the end of last year after developments in Europe unsettled global markets.

Elsewhere on the Asian economic calendar, the Bank of Korea will also announce a policy decision, while Indian industrial-production data, and Japanese machinery orders and balance-of-payments data are also due.

On the corporate front, Japanese car giant Toyota Motor Corp. /quotes/zigman/199438 JP:7203 -0.24%   /quotes/zigman/199376/quotes/nls/tm TM -0.01%  is slated to announce fiscal third-quarter results on Tuesday, while Nissan Motor Co. /quotes/zigman/196473 JP:7201 -0.41%   /quotes/zigman/202910 NSANY +0.05%  is due to report quarterly results the next day.

Analysts are expecting Toyota to report an attributable net profit of 67.5 billion yen (886 million) for the quarter, from ¥93.63 billion in the year-ago quarter, on revenue of ¥4.892 trillion, compared to ¥4.673 trillion, according to consensus data compiled by Thomson Reuters.

Back in November, when it announced second-quarter results, Toyota said that its operating income took a hit from currency fluctuations and that Japanese and North American sales dropped sharply due to the earthquake that devastated Japan early last year.

Nissan is expected to report a net profit of ¥68.60 billion, down from ¥80.07 billion last year, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-5 22:28 | 显示全部楼层
Stock markets will open Monday in the wake of upbeat jobs data from the U.S. Labor Department, which on Friday reported that the economy added 243,000 jobs in January, bringing the nation’s unemployment rate down to 8.3%. Read more about the latest jobs report.

Now the attention is expected to shift back to the financial crisis in Europe, and negotiations over the conditions for bailing out Greece.

“My question is when is it really going to be over for Greece,” said Jeffrey Sica, president and chief investment officer of Sica Wealth Management. “The situation isn’t good; it’s not going to get better, and you wonder when people are going to look beyond Greece to the real issue, which is Italy.”

Sica added he will also be looking to see what comes out of the policy meetings of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and also the Reserve Bank of Australia. “What we’re looking for is if there will be interest-rate cuts, or the banks will wait until March,” he elaborated.

Along with the usual reaction to the European debt crisis, U.S. investors will have quarterly reports from a group of market leaders that includes Cisco, Disney, Coca-Cola Inc /quotes/zigman/222647/quotes/nls/ko KO -0.03%  and Visa Inc. /quotes/zigman/502306/quotes/nls/v V +0.24%   

Cisco /quotes/zigman/20039/quotes/nls/csco CSCO +0.25% reports its results on Wednesday, and the networking-equipment giant is typically seen as a barometer by which investment in corporate technology is measured. Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research estimate Cisco will earn 43 cents a share on revenue of $11.2 billion in revenue.

Wall Street analysts also are looking for the Mouse House /quotes/zigman/245568/quotes/nls/dis DIS +0.38%  to earn 71 cents a share on $11.2 billion in sales, and for Coca-Cola /quotes/zigman/222647/quotes/nls/ko KO -0.03%  to earn 78 cents a share on revenue of almost $11 billion when those companies report quarterly results on Tuesday.

Two major social-media companies also report quarterly results next week, with Groupon Inc. /quotes/zigman/7212269/quotes/nls/grpn GRPN +0.04%  delivering its fourth-quarter results on Wednesday and LinkedIn Corp. /quotes/zigman/5131883/quotes/nls/lnkd LNKD +0.59%  giving its fourth-quarter report on Thursday.

Analysts forecast Groupon to earn 3 cents a share on $473 million in sales, and estimate LinkedIn will report earnings of 6 cents a share on sales of $159.5 million.

Earnings reports have been solid enough to support year-to-date gains for stocks, though they’ve shown some weak spots.

Of the more than 270 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings, 65% have beat earnings per-share estimates, below the 73% average of the past four quarters, according to FactSet.

Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Md., said he expects a continuation of the market’s rally that has been going on at least since the start of the year, because most of the issues that investors keep focusing on already have been factored into stock prices.

“Valuations are generally quite reasonable right now,” Day added. “The major things that were hurting the market have stabilized or gotten better and not really gone worse lately.”

Day said he expects next week’s job figures to be closely watched for signs that the decline in January’s unemployment rate will continue.
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发表于 2012-2-7 16:13 | 显示全部楼层
That falling feeling: Shale gas estimates continue downward
by Kurt Cobb
Estimates for recoverable shale gas just keep falling. Last year, the Potential Gas Committee, an industry consortium that focuses on long-term projections, estimated that recoverable natural gas from shale deposits in the United States would amount to 687 trillion cubic feet (tcf). (This optimistic appraisal laid the groundwork for the oft-repeated notion that the United States has 100 years of natural gas supply at current rates of consumption. The estimate was also based on so-called "speculative resources" of another 615 tcf.)

But, in its early release of the Annual Energy Outlook for 2012, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its estimate of technically recoverable resources of U.S. shale gas from 827 tcf to 482 tcf. (That says little about whether all those resources will be economically recoverable.) Much of the decline in the EIA estimate comes from a downgrading of the Marcellus Shale, by far the largest of the U.S. shale gas deposits spanning vast areas of New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia as well as sections of Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee. The downgrade resulted from extensive drilling results now available as the rush to extract gas from the Marcellus Shale accelerates. The EIA cut its estimated technically recoverable resources from 410 tcf to 141 tcf. This estimate remains well in excess of last year's estimate from the U.S. Geological Survey which put those resources at 84 tcf.

Despite the revisions, the American Petroleum Institute (API), the oil and gas industry's trade lobby, finds the 100-year figure so irresistibly round that API resists reducing it to match the official estimates in its recent ad campaign (see "One Million Jobs"). Why let the facts get in the way of good ad copy?

What ought to be acutely troubling is that the history of revisions to oil and gas resources has heretofore been one of increases. For the first time, we are now seeing not just downward revisions in estimated natural gas resources, but drastic downward revisions. That should tell us that the era of unlimited horizons for fossil fuels has come to a close. All the advanced technology that was supposed to bring unending plenty in the form of fossil fuels is now giving us better estimates of what will be available, namely, not nearly so much as we thought.

Meanwhile, in other areas of the world the hype surrounding shale gas is also being deflated. Exxon Mobil Corp. recently announced that two exploratory wells that it drilled in Poland--a country thought to be rich in shale gas--were duds. The company had already abandoned a $75 million investment in Hungary in 2009 after drilling in so-called tight sands yielded more water than gas.

Shale gas drilling in Europe is now revealing what was earlier revealed in the United States. The industry's so-called "manufacturing model"--the idea that one could sink a well virtually anywhere in a shale gas deposit and get economically viable flows--is being discredited all over again. Former U.S. Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill once said, "All politics is local." It turns out that all shale gas drilling is local as well. Shale gas fields have sweet spots worth exploiting, but also contain vast areas that will likely never be economical to produce.

As the news about future supply becomes more downbeat, the hype from industry-friendly media only seems to increase. Take climate change denier Patrick J. Michaels of the Cato Institute who recently wrote in The Washington Times: "The discovery of hundreds of years of natural gas in worldwide shale deposits guarantees that solar and wind will never produce much of the world’s power."

As new wells in the world's shale gas fields continue to disappoint, prepare for even more outrageous claims about future natural gas supplies--measured perhaps not in centuries, but millennia--and designed to obscure the failure of shale gas exploration results to match the industry's persistently optimistic forecasts.

Kurt Cobb is the author of the peak-oil-themed thriller, Prelude, and a columnist for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen. His work has also been featured on Energy Bulletin, The Oil Drum, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique, EV World, and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.


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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-10 21:34 | 显示全部楼层


The Eurogroup is set to meet again on Feb. 15. Without the 130 billion euro ($172 billion) bailout, Greece appears certain to default on a Euro 14.5 billion bond repayment due on March 20.

Finance ministers demanded that Greece’s parliament approve the austerity measures, which were agreed to by the country’s party leaders after days of marathon negotiations. The measures are said to include an unpopular 22% cut in the private-sector minimum wage and a further round of public-sector layoffs.

Euro-zone finance ministers also demanded that the leaders of the three parties that back the country’s interim government sign a pledge to implement the measures and to detail more than Euro 325 million in additional spending cuts before the Wednesday meeting.

Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said a vote could come on Sunday. Venizelos said the vote would amount to a referendum on the country’s future inside the euro zone and the European Union.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-11 11:56 | 显示全部楼层
The headaches besetting globally oriented investment managers are constant, but the pain essentially has two sources: Slow economic growth and the European sovereign debt crisis.

Greece has struck a debt-restructuring deal with its private creditors, and a path seems clear to a second bailout from international lenders, but investment managers are sensitive to the volatility and losses that international-markets stockholders suffered in 2011. And there’s still a lengthy list of problems to confront.

For a sense of how asset managers are coping with the current global investment climate and to understand their worst fears, MarketWatch spoke to five seasoned professionals who are based outside of the U.S., from London to Hong Kong, about their biggest stock-market worries:

Khiem Do: Baring Asset Management
“How is it going to end?” Khiem Do asked about Europe’s debt troubles. “How much has to be written off and who is going to take the haircut?”

In response to this uncertainty, Do, manager of Baring Asset Management’s closed-end Asia Pacific Fund, Inc. /quotes/zigman/218416/quotes/nls/apb APB -1.38%  and head of the investment firm’s multi-asset management for Asia, is steering clear of banks in the U.S. and in Europe that are closer to the crisis. The Hong Kong-based fund manager is investing in Asian banks instead. Read more: 5 money moves an Asian stock-fund manager is making now.

At the same time, Do added, “We don’t want to be too bearish on the U.S. economy right now.” So the fund manager favors U.S. utilities, telecommunications, consumer staples, technology and energy stocks.

“If there were to be a massive selloff in European banks due to any of the macro risk,” he said, these sectors would still do all right. Said Do: “They are more stable companies.” Read more: Greek political leaders reach deal.

Rainer Baumann: Sustainable Asset Management
Rainer Baumann, Zurich-based head of portfolio management at Sustainable Asset Management, is concerned that the U.S. economic growth this year will fall short of expectations of 2%-plus.

“Fundamentals seem to be fragile,” Baumann said.

Sustainable Asset Management, which oversees about $11.4 billion in assets, invests only invest in companies that are sustainable leaders, which acts as a natural hedge. “Our companies are more stable and robust,” he said.

Plus, he added, companies with a clear way of addressing long-term trends, problems and risks can often work through tough times.

Roche Holding AG /quotes/zigman/278482 CH:ROG -0.73%   /quotes/zigman/137625 RHHBY -1.69% , for example, has a place in the SAM Sustainable Global Equity Fund.

Roche, Baumann said, has an ideal combination of attractive fundamentals and valuation. IBM Corp. /quotes/zigman/230066/quotes/nls/ibm IBM -0.37%  is also in the fund. “It’s a company that outperforms and their policies and strategies address future challenges or future risks,” he said.

Didier Saint-Georges: Carmignac Gestion
Economic growth is also key for Didier Saint-Georges, member of the Investment Committee at Carmignac Gestion, which has over
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-11 12:07 | 显示全部楼层

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-10-21 21:41 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-11 12:11 | 显示全部楼层
1) The euro zone

“Think of the European Union as a minefield and its 17 member countries as land mines–countries plagued with large amounts of government debt which they cannot pay as the debt matures.  Greece appears to be the first land mine that could blow up — either defaulting on its debt and/or dropping out of the European Union. When and if this should occur, global markets will react negatively.  And the concussion from this land mine blowing up could cause one or more of the other land mines to go off—Portugal, Spain, Italy, etc.  All with negative effects on global markets.  Market participants have to watch this every day.”

2) U.S. Congress

“President Obama said one thing in his State of the Union address that everyone agreed with — That nothing will get done in Washington until after the November elections. The markets shouldn’t expect any help on that front until then.  Having a dysfunctional government generally is viewed negatively, and is a head wind for the market.  But if the inability to act prevents the Congress from doing anything that hurts markets (like last year when its debate over whether or not to let the United States default on its financial obligations sent the market down), that could be a positive.  It’s the old rule:  If you can’t help us, please don’t hurt us.”

3)  Iran

“We used to worry about the U.S., Israel and the Palestinians. Now it’s the U.S., Israel and Iran. The key difference is that Iran may have nuclear capabilities. If Israel and/or the United States were to take military action to knock out Iran’s nuclear capabilities, that would have serious short term negative impacts on world financial markets.  While we don’t expect any such action in the near future, if these worries pan out, the markets will be affected.”
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-11 12:47 | 显示全部楼层

Bernanke looks past January jobs report

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke did not throw the spotlight Tuesday on last week’s surprisingly strong January unemployment report, sticking to his forecast only moderate growth ahead.

In testimony to the Senate Budget Committee, Bernanke said the Fed was not forecasting any “sharp improvements” in the unemployment rate.

While he was not asked specifically if the job report impact Fed monetary policy, Bernanke said that the 8.3% unemployment rate reached in January, the lowest in almost three years, “understates the weakness of the labor market in some broad sense.” See live-blog of Bernanke hearing.

“We’re looking still at a couple more years of recovery,” Bernanke said at another point.

“We see growth at something close to potential which, under normal circumstances, would mean that we’re creating enough jobs to employ new entrants to the labor force but not making sharp improvements on the unemployment rate,” Bernanke said.

Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG LLC, said Bernanke’s “pretty dovish” testimony cheered financial markets.

“If you believe Bernanke, and by extension the Fed, is continuing its easing bias, well then you’ve got an improved economic backdrop and a super accommodative Fed. All else equal, that supports higher prices and that’s what we’re seeing,” Greenhaus said.

Stocks stayed in positive territory after Bernanke started speaking. The Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA -0.69%  was recently up 25 points to 12,868.

The Fed said last month that it plans to hold interest rates close to zero if the economy evolves as expected.

The statement was designed in part to keep interest rates from rising quickly at the first signs of recovery as higher rates could choke off the nascent improvement.

After the stronger-than-expected jobs data Friday, Fed fund futures declined, in effect seeing the first rate hike in the summer of 2014.

In other remarks, Bernanke denied that the Fed would tolerate higher inflation to try to foster better near-term economic conditions.

“We are not going to seek higher inflation in order to advance unemployment,” Bernanke said.

He acknowledged that the Fed zero-rate policy was designed to move investors from “very conservative” positions “slightly more into riskier positions that involve investment and lending” that will strengthen the economy.

But this can go too far, he said, and the Fed has a new team in place to watch out for bubbles.

Bernanke told the committee that fiscal policy now in place - which would see tax hikes and spending cuts at the beginning of next year - would “indeed slow the recovery.”

Congress must not ignore longer-term debt woes if it moves to address the contractionary nature of short-term policy, he said.

investors and business may become concerned about the looming deficit contraction unless Congress sets out a clear “road map,” he said.

“The U.S. federal deficit will become unsustainable within 15 or 20 years at the most and possibly some of those effects will be even brought forward by markets,” Bernanke said.

The Fed chairman said that U.S. banks and money-market mutual funds have made progress reducing their exposures to Europe but said a major problem would still “have a powerful impact on our financial system.”
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-11 12:53 | 显示全部楼层
he would appreciate how difficult it has been in the United States to adapt to China’s economic rise. China’s economy quadrupled in the last 10 years. And the U.S. piles up massive trade deficits with China every year. There is little end in sight.

The U.S., in fact, has done very little over the years to slow the speed at which China has surged forward as a beggar-thy-neighbor exporter, overwhelming any normal process of adaptation. The increasing use of safeguards, countervailing duties, and punishing fines for dumping subsidized products in the U.S. at less than fair market value have often been ineffective.

At least that’s the conclusion of an MIT study called “The China Syndrome.” The MIT professors, among them David Autor, show that value of annual merchandise imports from China has increased by a staggering 1,156% from 1991 to 2007. Read the report.

Most recently, in 2011, the US trade deficit with China was $295 billion. The year before was about the same.

The corresponding damage to the U.S. economy has been significant, and probably irreversible. The MIT study convincingly shows that the counties in the U.S. most exposed to Chinese imports have tended not only to lose manufacturing jobs, but also to see overall employment decline. Areas with high exposure have also had larger increases in workers receiving unemployment insurance, food stamps, and disability payments.

It was significant that in his State of the Union address, President Barack Obama announced the formation of the trade enforcement unit, whose charge will be investigating unfair trade practices. The focus will be China. China was given special breaks and loopholes when it joined the WTO just over 10 years ago. The country still shields its domestic markets from foreign competition much more than any other major world economy.

Click to Play  Asia's Week Ahead: Japan GDP dataJapan GDP and Australian unemployment are just two of the important economic indicators from the region next week. The WSJ's Deborah Kan speaks to MarketWatch reporter Sarah Turner.
And contrary to the goals of the WTO, Chinese state intervention in the economy is deepening. American protests about the undervalued yuan go unheard. And the theft of U.S. intellectual property is out of control.

All the while, the Chinese economy has evolved rapidly: from subsistence agriculture, to smokestack industries, to an acquisition-hungry importer of the latest technologies, and, on the horizon, consumer services. In response, and in order to have a chance at taping China’s rapid growth, U.S. firms again and again have set-up joint ventures in China, and, as required by the Chinese, they have dutifully transferred a wide range of technology to their Chinese partners .

Xi has said that he would like to lessen the ‘trust deficit” between China and the U.S. His first effort might be to get a copy of the Wyden Report, an 80-page document that describes how determined Chinese suppliers are to evade U.S. trade regulations. Senate staffers used a fictitious gmail account to discover a wide range of Chinese manufacturers, many subject to U.S. dumping duties, all too pleased to change country-of-origin documents, reroute goods through third countries, or even undervalue invoices so that less duty might be collected. Read the Wyden report as a pdf file.

In short, Chinese companies are not only committing customs fraud and costing the U.S. Treasury lost revenue, they are not afraid of getting caught. No wonder then that Obama organized the enforcement unit. If Xi takes nothing else away from his visit with Obama, it’s that the “trust deficit” is real and a reflection of Chinese commercial practices
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-11 13:00 | 显示全部楼层
A senior Chinese official warned of a "trust deficit" hampering relations between Beijing and Washington, just five days before Xi Jinping, the man expected to become his country's top leader later this year, begins a visit to the U.S.[url=] [/url]


Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
A whole new ball game: Xi Jinping, with Joe Biden as he signs a basketball at a Sichuan high school in August, will meet the vice president again in Washington next week.

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai also vigorously defended Beijing's decision to veto a U.N. Security Council resolution on Syria on Feb. 4, and suggested that U.S. criticism of the move was hypocritical.

In a briefing with reporters Thursday, Mr. Cui sought to damp expectations of any big commercial deals during Mr. Xi's visit, or of concessions to U.S. demands that China allow its currency to appreciate further.

Mr. Cui's remarks highlight the political and economic challenges facing Mr. Xi, China's vice president, as he prepares for his five-day tour of Washington, Iowa and California beginning on Monday.

Mr. Xi's main priority is to establish his credentials as a world statesman capable of handling the complex relationship with the U.S. before he takes over as Communist Party chief—the nation's top job—in a once-a-decade leadership change in the fall.

He has already shown signs that he will present a more open and confident image than the man he is expected to succeed, President Hu Jintao, who often appears uncomfortable in public, especially when abroad.

On Wednesday, Mr. Xi plans to attend a teatime reunion in the city of Muscatine, Iowa, with a family he stayed with during a visit there as a young party official in 1985. U.S. and Chinese officials are also discussing plans for him to attend a basketball game in Los Angeles on the last day of his trip on Friday—although that has yet to be confirmed, according to people familiar with the plans.

Both sides are hoping that Mr. Xi's self-assured manner will help to set a more positive tone for relations, which have been strained in the past two years by disputes over trade, and human rights and mutual suspicions over each other's military strategy in Asia.

"The trust deficit sums up a very clear fact: that is, the level of mutual trust between China and the United States is lagging behind what is required for the further expansion of our bilateral relationship," Mr. Cui said. "Vice President Xi's visit will present a very important opportunity to further enhance our mutual trust."

For U.S. officials, the main aim is to build on the personal rapport forged between Mr. Xi and Vice President Joe Biden during his visit to China last year, and to establish a working relationship with President Barack Obama, during meetings at the White House on Tuesday. They will be scrutinizing Mr. Xi's words and actions for indications of how he will try to govern China over the next decade, and who he is most closely allied with among the other candidates for elevation to the Politburo Standing Committee—the top decision-making body.

A lunch hosted by Hillary Clinton on Tuesday and a visit to the Pentagon, probably the same day, will give U.S. officials a chance to gauge Mr. Xi's views on the new U.S. strategic focus on Asia, and on the main regional flash points, especially North Korea and the South China Sea. The White House is looking in particular for signals that China is willing to comply with new U.S. sanctions on Iran, and to increase international pressure on the Syrian government.

Mr. Cui said cooperation with the U.S. on Syria was still a possibility, and China's Foreign Ministry said later that a Syrian opposition delegation had visited China this week for talks with another vice foreign minister, Zhai Jun.

But Mr. Cui also made it clear that China had been stung by U.S. criticism of its veto with Russia of the Syria resolution, which was described as "disgusting" by the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Susan Rice.

"If anyone should be criticized for using the veto power then I would say the United States should bear the most blame because the United States has used its veto power the most," Mr. Cui said.

"In international relations one should not wantonly resort to the use, or the threat of the use, of force," he said, adding that China had only used its veto eight times since 1971.

His uncompromising tone sets the stage for some tense exchanges in Washington, especially when Mr. Xi visits the Capitol on Wednesday morning for meetings with some of China's most vocal critics.

Reflecting the tensions underlying Mr. Xi's U.S. trip, senior administration officials including Mr. Biden met this week with a group of advocates for human rights in China, an issue the has long divided the two countries, Mr. Biden's office said Thursday.

Mr. Biden's office said after the Wednesday meeting that human rights form "a fundamental part of our foreign policy," and that their protection is the best way to advance "innovation, prosperity and stability in all countries, including China."

The meeting and statement also allow the Obama administration to assert that it has raised the rights issue as part of the run-up to Mr. Xi's visit. U.S. China watchers, particularly conservatives, are quick to criticize American overtures to China that do not include talks on rights.

Mr. Xi may also face protests from Tibetan activists who are planning demonstrations over China's policies in Tibet, which the activists blame for a series of self-immolations by ethnic Tibetans in areas of China with heavy Tibetan populations.

American business leaders, meanwhile, will be competing for access to Mr. Xi during several interactions including a CEOs' roundtable Wednesday and a lunch the same day during which he will make a speech to some 600 guests.

"The most important thing is to further build relationships with Xi Jinping," said John Frisbie, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, which is co-hosting Wednesday's lunch. "Will he say things in a different way? What's his style?" he asked. "It's also important for him to hear what the business issues are."

The U.S. has been lobbying for greater access to the Chinese market—especially for the financial and auto sectors—and stronger efforts to combat piracy, as well as a more level playing field for U.S. firms competing for licenses and government contracts.

One of the few commercial deals likely to be signed is an agreement for China to buy more soybeans from Iowa—a move that analysts see as an attempt to highlight the benefits of trading with China.

Mr. Xi will also try to spotlight the potential for greater Chinese investment in the U.S. by visiting a port in Los Angeles jointly run by a Chinese company, and attending a conference on Chinese investment.

But Mr. Cui played down the prospects of any big business deals, saying: "We should not interpret this trip as a procurement trip or a trip that is sending gifts".

He was equally blunt on the currency issue saying: "Don't misunderstand us. If you think we'll do something on the [yuan]for the sake of a high-level visit, it will amount to a manipulation of the exchange rate."

Mr. Biden, in appearances in Ohio on Thursday, also emphasized economic issues, saying China's economy has not overtaken the U.S. "A lot of people think China's eating our lunch, and they're not even close," Mr. Biden said in an interview on WLW radio in Cincinnati. "Our economy's 2 ½ times as large."
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发表于 2012-2-17 09:51 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-19 22:14 | 显示全部楼层
European Union finance ministers are scheduled to meet in Brussels on MONDAY 20Feb to decide whether Greece has done enough to receive some of the 130 billion euro ($169 billion) bailout funds.

Monday’s meeting is still unlikely to fully resolve questions surrounding the bailout, said Chris Scicluna, economist at Daiwa Capital Markets in London.

Greece’s euro-zone partners are likely to require that further preconditions be met before fully approving the package, but ministers are likely to clear the way for the imminent launch of the voluntary debt swap, enabling Greece to avoid a March default, he said.

The Greek parliament is expected to vote later this week on legislation retroactively inserting so-called collective-action clauses into Greek government bonds. This would allow holders of a majority of the bonds to force all bondholders to participate in the debt swap and could be used if overall participation is deemed insufficient.

The European Central Bank, however, would be immune to the clauses after it was said last week to have exchanged its holdings of Greek government bonds for identically structured paper that would be immune to future collective action.

That move has also stirred controversy by effectively giving the ECB senior status over other Greek-bond holders. The move could spur legal challenges by creditors who object to the maneuver, analysts said.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-2-20 22:03 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-19 22:15 | 显示全部楼层

Washington events for Feb. 20 - 24

Monday, Feb. 20
Government offices closed in observance of President’s Day.

Congress on recess all week.

Tuesday, Feb. 21
8:30 a.m.: Chicago Fed national activity index for January, released by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank.

Wednesday, Feb. 22
10 a.m.: Existing home sales for January, released by the National Realtors Association.

8 p.m.: Republican presidential candidates hold debate, sponsored by CNN and the Arizona Republican Party, in Mesa, Arizona.

Thursday, Feb. 23
8:30 a.m.: Weekly unemployment report, released by the Labor Department.

10 a.m.: FHFA home prices for December, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Friday, Feb. 24
9:55 a.m.: Consumer sentiment for February, released by UMich/Reuters.

10 a.m.: New home sales for January, released by the Commerce Department.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-19 22:24 | 显示全部楼层
On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors will release existing home sales for January, followed by new-home sales for January on Friday.

Since sales of new homes fell 2.2% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000, there have been signs that the housing market is on the mend.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index, released on Wednesday, rose to 29 in February, more than doubling since September. The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development also said Thursday that housing starts for January rose 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 699,000.

Things are looking a little less dour in the job market as well. Initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 in the week ended Feb. 11, the lowest since March 2008. See the data illustrated in charts.

“Data this week will either break down the will of those who don’t believe the economy is stabilizing or encourage those who do believe in a recovery,” said Luschini.

Given the focus on Greece and data, earnings are not expected to play as big of a part in the market as in previous weeks.

“We are also far enough into the cycle so people know what to expect,” said Freeman.

Notable companies scheduled to announce earnings next week include Hewlett-Packard /quotes/zigman/229301/quotes/nls/hpq HPQ +0.20% , Dell /quotes/zigman/27952/quotes/nls/dell DELL +0.66% and retail bellwethers Wal-Mart /quotes/zigman/245476/quotes/nls/wmt WMT +0.03%  and Home Depot /quotes/zigman/229488/quotes/nls/hd HD +1.70% .

On the whole, analysts are not anticipating any surprises from the corporate side.

“If they were going to report a surprise, we would have had a pre-announcement but given the silence, the reports are probably somewhat in line with expectations,” said Luschini.

Dell is projected to report fourth-quarter earnings of 52 cents a share when it releases results on Tuesday, according to a consensus survey by FactSet Research. Hewlett-Packard, which is slated to announce results on Wednesday, is forecast to report first-quarter earnings of 87 cents a share.

Both Wal-Mart and Home Dept are expected to report a healthy increase in profit, according to analysts. Read preview on Wal-Mart and Home Depot

U.S. financial markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents Day holiday.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-19 22:32 | 显示全部楼层
2月22日 10:30


Wednesday is slated to see the release of HSBC’s February flash Purchasing Managers’ Index reading for the Chinese manufacturing sector.

The flash PMI, which contains the initial 85% to 90% of responses to HSBC’s survey of manufacturers, is usually the first signal of economic conditions in China for any given month.

Last month’s survey showed that Chinese manufacturing failed to grow, although the contraction eased slightly from the previous month.

The final version of the HSBC China PMI printed at 48.8 on a 100 point scale, slightly up from December’s final reading of 48.7. Meanwhile, a competing, government-backed version of the PMI climbed to 50.5 in January, from 50.3 in December.

Economists and analysts will no doubt try to extrapolate the path of monetary policy from the surveys, although comparison readings may be distorted by the Chinese New Year holiday, which occurred in January this year but in February in 2011.

Also on tap for the coming week are minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which will be eyed after the central bank surprised markets earlier in the month by keeping its key interest rate on hold at 4.25%.

On the corporate earnings front, apparel firm Esprit Holdings Ltd. /quotes/zigman/38257 HK:330 +4.89%   /quotes/zigman/38258 ESHDF +26.39%  is set to announce first-half earnings.

Last September, Esprit announced that its fiscal-year profit fell 98% after taking a huge provision for store closures, with the move triggering a near-20% one-day drop for its share price.

The firm said that at that time that it would also invest 18.5 billion Hong Kong dollars ($2.4 billion) over four years to rebuild its brand, which would likely put pressure on its earnings over the next two to three years.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-2-19 22:33 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-21 11:34 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2012-2-21 21:32 | 显示全部楼层
欧盘翻绿 :o  
每天来这里看看 顺便炒炒英语冷饭
战战兢兢 如履薄冰
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-3 23:41 | 显示全部楼层

Week Ahead

The Australian economy will likely grab investor attention in the coming week, with a slew of economic data releases due out, as well as an interest-rate decision from the country’s central bank.

The week starts with the TD Securities monthly inflation gauge for February, due for release on Monday. Last month’s survey showed that prices rose 0.2% in January, a slowdown from December’s 0.5% rise.

Unlike TD Securities, the Reserve Bank of Australia only releases inflation data on a quarterly basis, so the bank’s interest-rate setting committee may be interested in the data ahead of its March meeting on Tuesday.

The RBA is widely expected to keep its key cash rate on hold at 4.25%, all the more so after RBA Gov. Glenn Stevens said in parliamentary testimony late last month that “the setting of policy was about right for the moment.” See report on RBA governor’s comments.

The Australian central bank shocked markets last month by keeping rates on hold, when most analysts had been expecting a quarter-point cut.

Australia’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product and February unemployment figures are due out on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Trade data for January is slated for Friday.

Chinese economic data will dominate the end of the week, with consumer- and producer-price inflation data set for Friday, and retail sales, fixed-asset investment and industrial output due later on the same day.

Last month, data showed Chinese consumer prices rose at a faster-than-expected pace in January, as food costs surged ahead of the Chinese New Year.

Chinese consumer prices climbed 4.5% in January compared to a year earlier, exceeding economist forecasts for a 4.1% rise. Prior to January’s spike, prices had been on a softening trend. See report on China’s January inflation.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s central bank is also set to decide on interest rates, with the announcement due Thursday.

While some had projected a rate-cut coming soon, those expectations were lowered considerably after minutes from the Bank of Korea’s last policy meeting showed at least one board member urging a rate hike, rather than a cut, citing already-accommodative policy.

And with data out in the past week showing South Korea swinging back to a trade deficit as exports rebounded sharply, the likelihood of a cut to the 3.25% policy rate has faded significantly.

The European Central Bank's March policy meeting, U.S. payrolls and the airlines will report earnings figures for the last quarter of 2011.
Concerns about Greece and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis could also impact sentiment, analysts said. Investors will be looking for clues to the participation rate in Greece’s debt swap. Private bondholders must respond to the offer by Thursday.

The main event of the week will be the release Friday of March non-farm payrolls data and other labor market figures. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch produced a consensus forecast for a 213,000 rise in payrolls after a gain of 243,000 in February. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 8.3%.

Monday, March 5
10 a.m.: ISM services-sector index for February, released by the Institute of Supply Management.

10 a.m.: Factory orders for January, released by the Commerce Department.

Tuesday, March 6
Super Tuesday presidential primaries and caucuses held in Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Ohio, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia.

10 a.m.: Hearing on how to spur job growth through capital formation, at the Senate Banking Committee.

10 a.m.: Hearing on tax-reform options, looking at incentives for capital investment and manufacturing, at the Senate Finance Committee.

Wednesday, March 7
8:15 a.m.: ADP employment report for February, released by Automatic Data Processing Inc. /quotes/zigman/68751/quotes/nls/adp ADP -0.78%   

8:30 a.m.: Productivity and labor costs for fourth quarter, released by the Labor Department.

10 a.m.: U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk testifies on the president’s 2012 trade agenda, at the Senate Finance Committee.

10 a.m.: Hearing to examine lending discrimination practices and foreclosure abuses, at the Senate Judiciary Committee.

10:30 a.m.: Hearing to look at rising gas prices, at the House Energy & Commerce subcommittee on energy.

3 p.m.: Consumer credit for January, released by the Federal Reserve.

Thursday, March 8
8:30 a.m.: Weekly unemployment claims, released by the Labor Department.

Friday, March 9
8:30 a.m.: Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for February, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Trade deficit for January, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Wholesale inventories for January, released by the Commerce Department.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-3-5 21:07 编辑 ]
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发表于 2012-3-5 10:45 | 显示全部楼层




参与人数 1等级分 +30 现金 +288 收起 理由
交易自省 + 30 + 288 谢谢


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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-5 21:16 | 显示全部楼层

Progress likely on bailouts

Expectations that this is on the way have risen after comments by the nation’s banking regulators last week. The China Banking Regulatory Commission said it plans to deal with the clean-up of local-government debt to stop defaults hurting banks.

It was last June that a staggering figure of $464 billion in bad loans first emerged at municipal governments. This appears to tally with a Shanghai Securities News report that local-government financing vehicles (LGFVs) have outstanding loans to China’s banks of 9.1 trillion yuan, or $1.44 trillion (as of Sept. 31), of which only 65% were covered by cash flows.

We should expect the market to interpret progress on dealing with this debt favorably, removing an overhang on mainland Chinese banks. Now they can put the foot down on lending again.

Indeed, already this weekend reports surfaced that China’s “Big Four” banks — Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. /quotes/zigman/37346 HK:1398 -2.67%   /quotes/zigman/37349 IDCBF 0.00%   /quotes/zigman/1874076 CN:601398 -1.13% , China Construction Bank Corp. /quotes/zigman/35073 HK:939 -1.98%   /quotes/zigman/35076 CICHF 0.00%   /quotes/zigman/1876229 CN:601939 -1.02% , Bank of China Ltd. /quotes/zigman/35803 HK:3988 -1.79%   /quotes/zigman/529024 BACHY +0.56%   /quotes/zigman/1873420 CN:601988 -0.98% , and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. /quotes/zigman/9118 HK:1288 -1.33%   /quotes/zigman/122133 ACGBF +6.25%   /quotes/zigman/1440017 CN:601288 -0.36% — are ready to increase lending to qualified property developers and for mortgages.

Yet arguably, this looks much like a Chinese version of kicking the can down the road, even though with $3.2-trillion-plus of foreign reserves, the usual argument is that it’s affordable.

Many analysts still see dangers lurking in with this bailout, however.

First there is the size: Earlier, SocGen described the bailout as 1.5 times the size of the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), when accounting for the relative size of the mainland Chinese economy to that if the U.S. They warned to expect a similar sized financial crisis.

Then there is the details of the bailout: In recent weeks, we have heard many debts will simply be rolled over. But this also has costs — when banks roll-over debt, they are not retiring it and retrieving capital. This could “crowd out” new lending as well as cause cash-flow issues.

In fact, Credit Suisse in a recent report flagged slowing bank lending as a worrisome sign. February figures suggested a sharp slowdown with large banks reportedly extending just 70 billion yuan in loans in the first two weeks of last month. Total bank lending was 780 billion yuan in January.

One fundamental issue is, when debt is forgiven, how do we know these LGFVs won’t just keep repeating the same mistakes and then ask for a bigger bailout next time?

This is why bailouts so often come with nasty strings attached: Think “IMF conditionality” or liquidator-imposed restructuring.

Coincidently, stories of extravagant government expenditures have been in the press recently, along with talk of needed reform. The Beijing News reported government spending on banquets has reached 300 billion yuan a year, while administrative expenses account for 18.6% of China’s total fiscal spending. In Japan, by comparison, that figure is 2.38%.

Last month, new regulations prohibited the government from buying foreign cars. This comes amid reports local officials alone have spent $50 billion on cars in the past one to two years.

Another issue is if more money is simply printed to forgive this debt, authorities will be adding to inflationary pressures. Food inflation has remained stubbornly high in China despite expectations consumer inflation is now heading down.

Stepping back, it is also worth remembering what mainland Chinese authorities are trying to achieve: to achieve a soft landing for a credit-fueled property and investment bubble while bailing out local governments.

This is a risky undertaking, as the danger remains that the property correction could yet cause the overall economy to crash. Many analysts still expect relaxation on existing property curbs won’t be forthcoming until the new government takes office in the autumn.

In the meantime, analysts are keenly watching for signs of distress in the economy.

Credit Suisse highlights further worrying indicators. It says the ratio of M1/M2 growth rates is now consistent with a harsh slowdown in growth.

Credit Suisse also asks: Why are banks finding it hard to attract deposits when Inflation is falling and the real deposit rate is getting less negative? Further, what is driving capital flight as forex reserves fall?

One interpretation is that China’s economy has moved into capital-preservation mode as liquidity tightens. This is supported by a move last week by mainland Chinese property developer Country Garden Holdings Co. /quotes/zigman/38487 HK:2007 +0.30%   /quotes/zigman/38489 CTRYF -3.30%  to raise funds from a discounted share placement, sending its shares falling sharply.

This will lead to concern that more developers will tap the market with discounted placements or rights issues, as bank funding remains restricted.

Before we hit a bottom it could still get messy, as not everyone will get access to lending or bailouts, potentially triggering aggressive price-cutting of property inventory.

Ultimately the difficulty in any correction — even if it is managed by the government — is at what points do price cuts trigger a wider collapse of confidence in the whole market?
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-8 18:52 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-10 12:04 | 显示全部楼层
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association said Friday that the Greek government's use of collective-action clauses, or CACs, to amend to terms of Greece-issued bonds qualifies as a "credit event" for Greece. A credit event requires a payout to those who held credit default swaps as insurance to protect themselves in the event of a Greek default. The ISDA decision could trigger payouts on $3.2 billion of those insurance-like contracts, according to Dow Jones Newswires. The news comes after the Greek government announced that 83.5% of its private-sector bondholders agreed to a bond-swap deal. That rate fell short of the 90% needed to prevent legal force to get the rest of the private bondholders to participate, so Greece's finance ministry said it got approval for CACs, which would bring the total participation rate to 96% by forcing some bondholders on board.

After Greece, EU can now worry about Spain
Commentary: Madrid is already missing its deficit target

Spanish unions call national strike for March 29
Spain has one of the highest levels of unemployment in the euro zone as well as in the wider European Union. The government also announced measures to help homeowners meet mortgage requirements and laid out a voluntary "code of good practice" for banks outlining steps to be taken to minimize evictions. In a bid to prop up business, legislators also approved 35 billion euros ($46.2 billion) in syndicated loans to assist cash-strapped regional governments to repay debts to Spanish companies.

The central banks of Japan and India are scheduled to make decisions on interest rates and asset-purchase programs next week. China will also be in the spotlight as the country's parliament wraps up meetings.

Euro-Zone finanance ministers meet and Greece aims to have completed the bond swap before that, U.S. releases retail sales figures, plus earnings from Volkswagen and Antofagasta

Washington events for March 12 - 16

Monday, March 12
House in recess all week; Senate in session. Senate expected to continue debate on the transportation bill.

2 p.m.: U.S. budget statement for February, released by the Treasury Department.

Tuesday, March 13
British Prime Minister David Cameron meets with President Barack Obama, attends basketball game in Ohio with Obama. He and Samantha Cameron later attend state dinner at the White House.

Republican primaries and caucuses in Alabama, Mississippi and Hawaii.

8:30 a.m.: Retail sales for February, released by the Commerce Department.

9:30 a.m.: Hearing on the Interior Department’s onshore and offshore energy development programs, at the Senate Appropriations subcommittee on the Department of the Interior, Environment and Related Agencies.

10 a.m.: Wholesale inventories for January, released by the Commerce Department.

2:15 p.m.: Federal Open Market Committee releases its statement on the economy and monetary policy.

Wednesday, March 14
8:30 a.m.: Import prices for February, released by the Commerce Department.

8:30 a.m.: Current account for fourth-quarter, released by the Treasury Department.

Thursday, March 15
Federal Reserve to report stress test results for the nation’s biggest banks. Time to be announced.

8:30 a.m.: Weekly first-time unemployment claims, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Producer price index for February, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Empire State Index on business activity in the New York area, released by the New York Federal Reserve Bank.

10 a.m.: Philly Fed Index on economic activity in the Philadelphia area, released by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank.

10 a.m.: Hearing to examine lessons from Japan’s Fukushima disaster one year later, and nuclear reactor safety in the U.S., at the Senate Environment and Public Works subcommittees on Clear Air and Nuclear Safety.

2:30 p.m.: Hearing on ways to strengthen the housing market and minimize losses to taxpayers, at the Senate Banking subcommittees oh Housing, Transportation and Community Development, and Securities, Insurance and Investment.

Friday, March 16
8:30 a.m.: Consumer price index for February, released by the Labor Department.

9:15 a.m.: Industrial production and capacity utilization for February, released by the Federal Reserve.

9:55 a.m.: Consumer sentiment for March, released by University of Michigan and Reuters.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-10 12:07 | 显示全部楼层
Monday 12 March
  European Parliament plenary session (Strasbourg)
Cross-border inheritances: avoiding legal disputes and lengthy procedures to settle inheritances where the laws of more than one EU country may apply is the aim of draft legislation to be put to the vote (debate Monday, vote Tuesday).
Quotas for women: Parliament will vote on proposals to reduce the gender pay gap and use quotas to boost the number of women on company boards and in political bodies (debate Monday, vote Tuesday).
  Eurogroup (Brussels)
The Eurogroup, composed of the Member States whose currency is the euro, normally meets the day before the Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting and deals with issues relating to the Economic and Monetary Union.
  Conference on promoting human rights while countering terrorism (Copenhagen)
The purpose of the conference is to provide an opportunity for officials from the EU, its member states, the United Nations as well as relevant civil society experts to identify common solutions that can ensure effective counter-terrorism while at the same time respecting human rights and the rule of law. The aim of the conference is to develop concrete guidelines for practitioners in key areas.
  World Water Forum (Marseille)
The goal of the 6th World Water Forum is to tackle the challenges our world is facing and to bring water high on all political agendas. There will be no sustainable development while the water issues remain unsolved. Since 2004, more than 32 million people have been connected to drinking water and 9.5 million to sanitation facilities thanks to EU support.

Tuesday 13 March
  European Parliament plenary session (Strasbourg)
Ending the beef trade war: EU concessions to help put an end to the 20-year hormone beef trade war with the USA and Canada will be put to a vote. The deal allows the EU to keep its ban on hormone-treated beef imports in return for importing more high-quality beef (debate Tuesday, vote Wednesday).
Dutch discriminatory web site: European citizens' basic rights such as free movement and non-discrimination will be under the spotlight in a debate sparked by the launch of a web site inviting Dutch citizens to post complaints about central and Eastern Europeans in The Netherlands. A resolution will also be put to the vote (debate Tuesday, vote Thursday).
  Economic & Financial Affairs Council (Brussels)
The Council will take stock of work undertaken on the proposal for a financial transaction tax, with a view to a policy debate in the ECOFIN Council in May or June. It is expected to adopt conclusions on the first alert mechanism report from the Commission under the EU's new governance provisions.
  EC weekly meeting of the College (Strasbourg) -agenda, minutes

Wednesday 14 March
  European Parliament plenary session (Strasbourg)
Russian elections: MEPs will discuss the elections which brought Vladimir Putin back as Russian President. Recent events in Kazakhstan and Nigeria will also be in the spotlight, ahead of Parliament adopting separate resolutions on all three topics (debates Wednesday, votes Thursday).
Enlargement: MEPs will debate and vote on the progress of Iceland, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina towards joining the EU.
  Coreper II, Coreper I (Brussels)
Coreper is responsible for preparing the work of the EU Council. It consists of Member States' ambassadors to the European Union.
  Conference on combating antimicrobial resistance (Copenhagen)
The conference will aim to address the challenges of antimicrobial resistance by, among other things, exchanging best practices and discussing possible solutions to the problem of antimicrobial resistance in humans and animals with focus on improving the data collection and surveillance, stopping the overuse of antibiotics, and reducing the use of the critically important antibiotics.

Thursday 15 March
  European Parliament plenary session (Strasbourg)

  16th conference by DG interpretation for universities (Brussels)
DG Interpretation cooperates very closely with universities to ensure professionally focused training of the highest quality. Once a year, DG Interpretation holds a universities conference with participants from universities, national governments and European and international institutions. This year's theme will be "tradition and innovation".
  European consumer day 2012 (Copenhagen)
The 14th edition of the European Consumer Day will focus on sustainable consumption. Sustainable consumption implies the use of goods and services that respond to basic needs and bring a better quality of life without jeopardising the needs of future generations.
  Conference on ageing populations and new opportunities for business (Brussels, EESC)
The EESC is organising an event on ageing population issues "Ageing populations and new opportunities for business in Europe and Japan". Japan is a couple of decades ahead of Europe in terms of fiscal, social and economic 'experience'; the aim is to exchange best practices with Japan to determine the challenges of an ageing population and the opportunities this presents for businesses.

Friday 16 March
  Foreign Affairs Council meeting (trade issues) (Brussels)
Trade ministers, meeting within the Foreign Affairs Council, will seek to reach political agreement on the signing and the provisional application of a free trade agreement with Colombia and Peru and discuss the issue of a free trade agreement with Singapore. The Council is expected to adopt conclusions on trade, growth and development. The Council will also discuss a proposed revision of the regulation applying the generalised scheme of tariff preferences (GSP). And ministers will take stock of the state of play regarding the signature and ratification of the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA) on enforcement of intellectual property rights.
  Conference on development on the occasion of Danida's 50 year anniversary (Copenhagen)
The first Danish law on development cooperation was adopted In March 1962. The 50th anniversary will be celebrated at an international conference where the broad aspects of Danish, European and international development policies will be discussed with a wide range of representatives from international organizations, partner countries, European ministers, NGOs and experts.

Saturday 17 March
  Youth conference (Copenhagen)
The subject of the conference is how to foster young people's creativity, innovative capabilities and talents as means of increasing their active participation in society and their transition to employment.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-16 16:18 | 显示全部楼层







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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-16 16:21 | 显示全部楼层





  据商务部统计,2012年1至2月,外商投资新设立企业3005家,同比下降11.59%;实际使用外资金额1 7 7 .2 3亿 美 元 , 同 比 下 降0.56%。

  其中,欧盟27国实际投入外资金 额9 .0 6亿 美 元 , 同 比 下 降33 .32 %。 服 务 业 实 际 使 用 外 资80 .09亿美元,同比下降3 .51%,降幅高于全国平均水平2.95个百分点。东部地区实际使用外资151.52亿美元,同比下降1.63%。

  而来自美国和亚洲的投资,以及中部地区和农林牧渔业吸收外资则保持了上升的态势。与此同时,1至2月,中国累计实现非金融类对外直接投 资7 4 .3 5亿 美 元 , 同 比 增 长41.1%。

  中国建设银行(601939)研究员赵庆明对《经济参考报》记者表示,中国FD I连降,更多是受到国际经济情况的影响,全球需求不足以及实体经济不活跃都会影响到投资,而全球金融市场情况不太好也对投资活动产生负面影响。


  中国银行(601988)国际金融研究所高级分析师边卫红表示,虽然欧洲整体形势目前稍有缓解,但是由于其目前仍面临财政纪律约束等一系列挑战,加之3、4月份将迎来新的还债高峰期,因此,欧洲未来趋势不容乐观。反之,美国的整体经济比市场之前预期的要好,包括失业率、PM I等数据都表现出虽然其面对不确定性,但已呈现温和复苏的态势。因此,对于全球来说,美国仍然是全球最大F D I投资目的地,这也意味着,一部分投资者会将投资分流至美国。

  国内方面,边卫红认为,一定程度上,FD I增速的下滑与人民币升值预期有一定的联系,人民币汇率的走势已从以前的单边升值发展到现在的双向浮动。虽然升值预期仍在,但早已没有原来强烈,这也成为影响外资在国内投资的重要因素。

  边卫红还表示,未来FD I月度数据转正是肯定的,中国经济增长速度虽然在逐步放缓,但是相对其他国家而言,增速仍然较高,这就保证了投资回报率的增长。这一系列因素,将支持我国FD I总体会处于增长态势。






  据中国人民银行日前发布的数据,1月我国金融机构外汇占款余额达到25 .4996万亿元人民币,当月新增约1409亿元人民币。不过,进出口在2月出现如此大规模的逆差使得市场对于2月份的资金流入状况进行了重新的评估。而FD I持续的负增长也更加重了市场的悲观情绪。

  中金日前发布报告称,2月贸易余额从1月份的顺差273亿美元转为逆差314 .9亿美元,大大超出市场预期的57亿美元逆差规模,主要由于出口增长显著低于预期所致。在2月贸易逆差超预期扩大的情形下,如果2月短期资本仍然是净流出(1月外汇占款新增1400亿元,但扣除贸易顺差和FD I后,仍显示短期资本净流出),则2月外汇占款可能再度负增长,给国内广义流动性供应带来负面影响。


  “人民币升值预期是判断国际资本流动的同步指标,该指标在2月再度转弱。我们通过观察香港市场上的人民币无交割远期(N D F)汇率和人民币即期汇率的偏离度来监测升值预期。数据显示,升值预期从2011年9月中旬转弱,而外汇占款从当年10月减少;升值预期从今年1月初转强,2月再度转弱。”招商证券称。







  中国社会科学院金融研究所研究员易宪容撰文指出,前些年随着人民币升值预期的增强,外国资金以不同的方式大量地流入中国市场,央行不得不增发基础货币来冲销进入中国的流动性。正是基于这样的考虑,央行频繁使用存款准备金率,并 把 存 款 准 备 金 率 上 调 到 历 史 高点。但到了去年下半年,人民币升值预期弱化,外国进入中国的资金也逐渐减少,甚至于出现了负增长。外汇占款减少,也就为存款准备金率下调、回到常态腾出了很大空间。当然,这还要看今年的人民币升值及外资流入的情况。


  瑞穗证券亚洲公司董事总经理、首席经济学家沈建光表示,由于FD I放缓,贸易顺差下降,以及人民币升值的预期减弱,预计今年外汇占款将不及去年。在M 2目标定为14%的前提下,如果今年外汇占款降到2万亿,意味着今年国内贷款需要达到10万亿。因此下调存款准备金率仍有必要,预计上半年有3次下调。

  不过,交行金研中心认为,何时下调、下调幅度大小主要取决于外汇占款的情况。但考虑到劳动力成本上涨、大宗商品价格高企等中长期通胀压力,加之央行将今年M 2的增长目标定在14%的较低水平,存款准备金率快速、大幅下调的可能性也不大。
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-16 16:30 | 显示全部楼层





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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-17 22:20 | 显示全部楼层
  • Economic Indicators: Negative
  • Fund Flows: Negative
  • Commodity Price Movements: Negative
  • Relationship Between Currencies: Negative
  • Sentiment: Neutral
  • Earnings Momentum: Mildly Negative
  • Risk Appetite: Neutral
  • Quantitative Indicators: Negative
  • Technical Indicators: Negative
  • Geopolitical Indicators: Negative

Closed End Funds There are no closed end funds that merit an investment at this juncture. It is best to stay focused on the ETF iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund /quotes/zigman/357940/quotes/nls/fxi FXI +0.10% . ,Short-term rating is being downgraded to sell. Medium-term rating is being downgraded to mild sell.

Aggressive investors may consider starting a scale in to short sell FXI on any bounce from here. Those wanting to avoid the hassle of short selling may use inverse ETF ProShares Ultrashort FTSE China However, please be aware that FXP uses 100% leverage and exhibits a tracking error which can be significant. Out of the two options, it is better to short FXI.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-17 22:25 | 显示全部楼层
The results should demonstrate that non-performing assets, especially on loans made to local governments and to property developers, aren’t hurting Chinese banks’ profits yet.

What investors will be watching for is the level of capital at the end of 2011. The focus will be on whether any of them are required to sell new shares to shore up their capital position, so that they can maintain their pace of lending.

“Overall, we expect [fourth quarter of 2011] earnings could disappoint relative to [the third quarter] due to rising non-performing loans and back-loaded expenses that are going to erode banks’ earnings. Offsetting this is the continued expansion of net interest margins and fee income growth,” the Bernstein Research analysts added.

Some bad news may also be coming from China Life Insurance Co., one of the world’s largest insurers by market value. The company had recently warned that its 2011 profit could drop by 40% to 50% from 2010 levels. A profit decline in that range won’t surprise markets, but investors may be looking forward to the company’s forecast for the current year, and how the company plans to improve its operating performance.

China economic data due

Investors will get a first glimpse of this month’s manufacturing conditions in China on Thursday, when HSBC will announce its flash Purchasing Managers’ Index for March. The HSBC survey showed that manufacturing activity in China contracted in both January and February, although there was an improvement last month.

A reading below 50 indicates a contraction and one above 50 shows an expansion. While it shouldn’t be a surprise if the initial number for March comes in just around 50, a bigger contraction could hurt investor sentiment.

Also on Thursday, Japan will release its preliminary trade balance for February. After reporting its first trade deficit in 30 years in 2011 — as it imported more fossil fuels to run its power plants and make up for the loss of nuclear power, Japan also reported a trade deficit in January.

With the yen now on a downward trend, the country may have spent more on its imports in February and could be looking at another deficit. What will also be interesting to watch is how the country’s exports fared during the month, especially to China.

The dollar  has risen about 8.5% against the yen so far this year, including a 2.7% appreciation thus far in March.
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