请选择 进入手机版 | 继续访问电脑版
查看: 28491|回复: 197

外围消息学习

[复制链接]

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

发表于 2012-1-6 23:03 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

马上注册海风会员,享受更多便捷服务!

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看,没有帐号?注册会员 新浪微博登陆

x
本帖以国外的一些信息收集为主。

谨作参考。切记

评分

参与人数 1等级分 +29 现金 +291 收起 理由
雨溪 + 29 + 291 精品文章

查看全部评分

凡交易者,当自省。
海风机构报告会员!
回复

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-6 23:06 | 显示全部楼层

6 themes that will shape global markets in 2012

Commentary: Europe’s woes, U.S. resilience and black swans

2012 is off to a pretty good start as investors and traders look to the bright side after a volatile 2011.

Last year the vast majority of world markets closed in the red, some deeply so. One exception: the U.S., which broke even or gained slightly, depending on whether you owned stocks that paid dividends.

And it’s not hard to see why. The effects of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression linger. The debt bomb that first exploded in the U.S. had knock-on effects around the world as governments took on liabilities originally assumed by households and banks. And now governments must clean up the mess.

That very involvement by politicians whose incentives are often antithetical to those of investors makes it particularly difficult to make predictions about markets this year, when U.S. elections bring everything to a halt.

Then there are “black swan” events, like last year’s Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown, which nobody can predict but can affect our portfolios profoundly.

OK, enough excuses. Making predictions is part of my job — and honestly it’s a lot of fun — so here are the trends I think will drive markets most in 2012:

Read Howard Gold’s report card on last year’s predictions at MoneyShow.com.

1. Europe’s troubles drag on
The European debt crisis will drag on, but there may be some progress. Greece is pretty hopeless and there are fresh rumors that it will leave the euro zone. And the Spanish government just said that its deficit as a percentage of GDP will exceed its targets. Oops.

Meanwhile, euro-zone nations must issue nearly 800 billion euros in debt this year, 300 billion euros from Italy and Spain alone. A lot of that will come early on, so we could have some bumpy days ahead.

But yields have come down as a new government in Italy tries to push through reforms. And don’t underestimate the willingness of the European Central Bank under Mario Draghi to take a page from Ben Bernanke’s play book and flood the zone with cash if things get rough.

Also, though the naysayers may disagree, I think European governments are making slow, painful progress towards a solution — namely, more fiscal integration. I expect that to continue this year, too.

2. Ratings in danger
Still, several European countries will go into recession and some could lose their AAA rating this year. Hey, no one said it was going to be easy! Recession may already have started in Italy, and who cares what you call it in Spain, where unemployment approaches 23%. But austerity programs also could push countries like France and Belgium, but probably not Germany, into a mild recession.

Unfortunately, the lower tax revenues that come with recessions cause deficits to grow, which makes ratings downgrades likely. France’s AAA is a goner, but probably after the April presidential election. (Who wants to face the wrath of Sarkozy?) Even Germany and the Netherlands could be downgraded if they take on more of the debt of their southern cousins.

So, before the year is out, the AA+ club (which includes the U.S.) may be very crowded.

Was it Groucho Marx or Woody Allen who said they didn’t want to be a member of any club that would accept them? Now we know what they meant!

3. The U.S. sets the pace
The U.S. will avoid recession for much of the year and growth will be decent. This may be a bitter pill for many to swallow, but the U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient over the last year or so. I know, I know, the housing market is still comatose and real unemployment is much higher than the statistics tell us, so there’s plenty of misery out there.

But let’s give capitalism some credit: U.S. business people have proven adept at competing in the “new normal.” Recent manufacturing and consumer-spending data have been strong. U.S. exporters have done well in emerging markets and U.S. banks took advantage of free money in 2009 and 2010 to raise tons of capital, unlike their European counterparts.

So, I’m looking for decent growth in 2012 — no great shakes, maybe 2% or so — and continued slow improvement in private-sector employment throughout the year. Depending on the outcome of the election, the last couple of months may be rocky, however.

4. Stocks have an advantage
U.S. stocks should have a decent year, too, though the cyclical bull market is near its end. By some measures, valuations are pretty good — about 13 times projected earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. But earnings growth should taper off to mid-single-digit percentage increases.

2012 is an election year, historically the second best of the four-year presidential election cycle. This time may be different for all kinds of reasons, but since October 3, when the S&P closed at 1,099.23, stocks have gained 16%. We have only another 7% or so to get back to the post-crash high of 1,370. So, it’s not as outlandish as it may sound.

Read Howard Gold’s column on why 2012 may be a good year for stocks on MoneyShow.com.

But defensive sectors set the pace last year and that should continue as growth slows. Unfortunately that’s typically a sign of a bull that’s long in the tooth.

And the first year of a president’s term is usually the worst for stocks. It may be even more so in 2013, when spending cuts and tax increases could hit all at once, but that’s for next year’s column.

5. Emerging markets lay a brick
Emerging markets continue to lose their luster. In case you haven’t noticed, many emerging markets are deep in bearish territory. The BRICs have been a disaster — China, Russia, and Brazil all fell more than 20% in dollar terms in 2011, and India plunged 37.8%, according to MSCI.

Trouble is, a slowing world economy is catching up with the former highfliers, most of which are still export-oriented. Also, unlike the U.S. and Europe, emerging economies have faced strong inflationary headwinds, and their central banks have struggled to balance growth and price stability.

6. Expect the unexpected
Black swans are lurking. Almost by definition, you can’t predict which black swan will appear and when. A market event like May 2010’s flash crash is bound to happen again, maybe this year, maybe next. And of course natural disasters are always with us, most of them unexpected too.

But I think a whopper of a geopolitical crisis may be the most likely black swan. One of the most vulnerable areas is the Korean peninsula, where the death of Kim Jong Il and the elevation of his callow son, Kim Jong Un, have caused jitters.

The other, of course, is Iran, which just warned the U.S. not to send an aircraft carrier back into the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil supply flows.

And then, there’s Russia. Will former President Vladimir Putin just stand by as demonstrators tell him not to run for yet another term? Or will he use force to suppress them and re-assume power? And what would happen then?

That’s the thing about the future — there are usually more questions than answers, even as gurus and pundits pretend there aren’t. And politics and markets are more intertwined than ever, which should make 2012 even more unpredictable — and interesting.

Have a happy, healthy and prosperous new year!
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-6 23:16 | 显示全部楼层

10 money-making investment ideas for 2012

Where to put your money in yet another challenging year

Understandably, people are more wary than usual about where to invest this year. As you review your portfolio, think about how 2012 might be different from 2011 and ways it could bring more of the same. It pays to keep in mind one of esteemed former Wall Street analyst Bob Farrell’s cardinal rules of investing: “When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen.” Read more: 10 investing rules tailor-made for tough markets.

Before delving into what 2012 could deliver, let’s recap how MarketWatch’s 10 investment ideas for 2011 did. Not bad, in fact, especially considering the almost daily assaults on the markets. Read more: The 10 investment ideas we thought would make you money in 2011.

Most of the picks MarketWatch made in December 2010, based on recommendations and research from investment professionals, beat the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX -0.37% — though that’s not saying much about a year when the U.S. benchmark was flat on a price basis and up 2.1% with dividends reinvested.

The best advice was to run with the “Dogs of the Dow.” This strategy of buying the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA -0.42%  and holding for 12 months rewarded investors with stellar gains, up 17% for the year including reinvested dividends.

Adding consumer-staples stocks to consumer-discretionary stocks was another winner, with the staples sector gaining 10.5% and discretionary shares up 4.4%. Energy and technology sectors also outperformed the market, as did growth stocks.

The biggest losers: Materials-sector stocks, down almost 12%. Emerging-markets infrastructure plays and industrial-sector stocks also lost ground.

Nowadays investors’ mood is mixed at best. Mutual-fund shareholders have piled into bonds and fled U.S. stocks for several years; surveys of investment advisers show cautiousness about buying stocks, and hedge-fund managers appear increasingly bullish. Bond investors, meanwhile, have to question when this epic bull market will end.

Looking ahead, investors should tune out the noise, turn on the head lamps, and consider these 10 ways to position your portfolio in 2012:

1. Stick with 2011’s winners
Buy what’s worked and head for the beach? Not quite. But many of the headwinds investors fought in 2011 haven’t disappeared and could worsen, which means that some of last year’s winners could repeat.

Geopolitical and economic risks will, as always, impact financial markets and consumer prices short-term, with accompanying high volatility. Yet broadly speaking, in the current anemic global climate, where economic growth is increasingly scarce, pressure on interest rates and inflation isn’t much of an immediate threat.

U.S. stocks trounced their international counterparts, and look to do so again in 2012. Large-caps outperformed small- and midcaps, and growth-stock investors bested more bargain-minded value buyers. Expect more of that as well.

The hunt for yield is another priority. The Dogs of the Dow perform in volatile, tug-of-war markets and seem poised for another round. The 2012 Dogs are unchanged from 2011 except Procter & Gamble Co. /quotes/zigman/238894/quotes/nls/pg PG -0.35%  has replaced McDonald’s Corp. /quotes/zigman/233369/quotes/nls/mcd MCD +0.35% . AT&T Inc. /quotes/zigman/398198/quotes/nls/t T -2.03%  is again the highest-yielding Dow component.

In a slow-growth world where developed nations are deleveraging — much of Europe is likely to be mired in recession this year and the U.S. will be lucky if growth nears 2% — expect bond yields to remain low.

The riskiest play is long-term Treasurys. If the 30-year Treasury yield slides to 2% or 2.5% — perhaps in a euro-sparked panic — that probably would be the last gasp of the Treasury bond bull. Still, investors would win big on a total return basis, though not as much as in 2011.

As an alternative to volatile long- and intermediate-term Treasurys, consider high-quality corporate bonds, municipal bonds and income-producing stocks.

2. Own defensive stocks in a deleveraging age
Focus on capital preservation and the preservation of cash flow.

From a stock perspective, the classic defensive sectors include yield-rich consumer staples, health care and utilities.

Among these three, only the consumer-staples sector gets an enthusiastic nod from analysts at S&P Capital IQ. Utilities, especially shares of electric companies, enjoyed a tremendous run in 2011, up 14.5%. And while these companies offer hefty dividends, valuations have increased considerably and the S&P analysts expect market performance from the group in 2012. The analysts are also neutral about the health-care sector, which gained 10.2% last year.

3. Add some economic sensitivity
“A balanced sector approach that emphasizes both cyclical and defensive themes is critical to navigating this manic market,” said Alec Young, global equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, in a recent research report.

That means you have to temper the urge for flight and beef up the portfolio with some fight. Put some money into cyclical sectors that lagged in 2011, including materials, industrials, energy and technology.

“Some of the beaten-down cyclical groups will come back,” said Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at mutual fund firm Leuthold Group. Topping his list: shares of railroads, chemicals, industrials and materials.

4. Stick with dividend-paying growth stocks
U.S. corporate balance sheets — the fundamentals — are in excellent shape overall. Still, in a slow-growth climate the advantage goes to the best of the best. These companies tend to be found in areas that are less economically sensitive. They’re typically large-caps, with a “wide moat” of business, strong cash flow and a history of using capital for productive purposes including acquisitions, share buybacks and regularly higher dividend payments.

“Gravitate more to the income-oriented sectors of the U.S. market for the time being,” said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based investment manager Gluskin Sheff + Associates, in a recent research report.

As examples of high-quality companies whose dividend yields top Treasurys, he points to AT&T, 3M Co. /quotes/zigman/302497/quotes/nls/mmm MMM -0.08% , Exxon Mobil Corp. /quotes/zigman/203975/quotes/nls/xom XOM -0.26% , Emerson Electric Co. /quotes/zigman/225940/quotes/nls/emr EMR -0.51% , McDonald’s, Johnson & Johnson /quotes/zigman/230812/quotes/nls/jnj JNJ -0.74%  , Colgate-Palmolive Co. /quotes/zigman/222734/quotes/nls/cl CL -0.47%   and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. /quotes/zigman/245476/quotes/nls/wmt WMT -0.56%   

Other defensive, cash-rich growth stocks on Rosenberg’s suggested list include Procter & Gamble and Microsoft Corp.

To be sure, this is an increasingly crowded trade. Many of these companies were “discovered” over the past year, as investors rotated to large-cap, higher-yielding payers. That’s one reason why last year’s best U.S. market sectors were utilities and consumer staples. McDonald’s, for instance, soared 35% in 2011.

So stay the course for now, but remember Bob Farrell’s rule and watch for weakness in this group heading into 2013, when smaller-cap stocks could begin to improve.

5. Consider small-cap stocks
Small-caps were market leaders for years, but despite a strong fourth-quarter 2011 showing the group has lost that poll position.

The Russell 2000 Index /quotes/zigman/2759624 RUT -0.74%  fell 4.2% in 2011, while the large-cap Russell 1000 Index /quotes/zigman/2759628 RUI -0.45% gained 1.5%.

But that dismal 2011 result might be a silver lining for small-caps.

“The best secular investment theme in the global equity markets is U.S. small-caps,” Richard Bernstein, CEO of investment firm Richard Bernstein Advisors, wrote in a December report to clients.

“Companies in the Russell 2000 have been producing positive earnings surprises at a better rate than most other regions of the world,” he added. “Although smaller U.S. companies’ earnings fundamentals are not yet superior to their larger U.S. counterparts...that relationship is likely to reverse.”

Moreover, small-caps’ general lack of international exposure could be a plus if, as expected, the U.S. dollar strengthens, according to Steven DeSanctis, small-cap strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. A stronger dollar is a negative for larger companies with sizeable overseas operations. DeSanctis favors the larger and higher-quality small-cap names, which he noted could benefit from increasing merger and acquisition activity.

Yet with so much uncertainty looming over global markets and the prospect of continued volatility, putting money into small caps would require a big leap of faith for an investor in 2012. That said, look for attractive entry points to this unloved group.

6. Consider high-quality European stocks
Recession in the euro zone is not only expected, but may already have arrived. Shares of European stocks have been shorn — the average European stock mutual fund lost 15% in 2011. As always after a big selloff, there’s a case to be made that the worst is priced into these markets — although another leg down can’t be ruled out.

At the risk of trying to catch a falling knife, Michael Harnett, chief global equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, told investors in a December research report to buy the “best and the distressed” in Europe.

“European stocks are the most oversold they have been relative to U.S. equities in 20 years,” he said. “Go shopping for high quality European equities with strong earnings, healthy balance sheets and solid margins.”

Merrill’s recommended large-cap European stocks to weather recession include AstraZeneca Plc /quotes/zigman/134653/quotes/nls/azn AZN -0.56%  , Telefonica S.A. /quotes/zigman/161324/quotes/nls/tef TEF -1.64% , Total S.A. /quotes/zigman/167990/quotes/nls/tot TOT -0.80% and BP Plc /quotes/zigman/247026/quotes/nls/bp BP +0.25% .

7. The U.S. dollar is the one-eyed king
“Muddling through” the recessionary morass is the most likely scenario analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. see for Europe.

“One of the results will be a weaker euro /quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled EURUSD -0.5825%  ,” the BBH analysts noted in a recent report. “But barring an outright collapse, depreciation is likely to be broadly welcomed by European officials and businesses. A weaker euro is also consistent with the easing of monetary policy.”

The U.S. dollar will be the beneficiary of a weaker euro. The U.S. Dollar Index /quotes/zigman/1652083 DXY +0.50%  gathered steam heading into 2012 ; a proxy for the dollar, PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund /quotes/zigman/1502728/quotes/nls/uup UUP +0.44% , gained almost 6% in the last half of 2011. BBH analysts expect the euro to bottom at 1.20 in the second quarter of 2012 and end the year at 1.27 — about where it recently traded.  

Said A. Gary Shilling, president of investment advisory firm A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc. “The dollar should continue to appreciate, especially against the euro but also against commodity currencies” such as the Australian dollar /quotes/zigman/4867876/sampled AUDUSD -0.4392%  , Canadian dollar /quotes/zigman/4867882/sampled USDCAD +0.4203%  and Mexican peso. /quotes/zigman/4867991/sampled USDMXN -0.0863%   

“The dollar in the long run is likely to remain the world’s primary international trading and reserve currency,” Shilling noted. “There are,” he added, “no substitutes for the buck in the foreseeable future.” Read more: Look for 2012 to be the year of the dollar.

Of course, a stronger dollar means U.S.-based multinationals will lose a tailwind they’ve ridden for several years. Sales earned abroad are worth more when repatriated in weaker dollars, and no sector is more heavily exposed to developed and emerging markets than technology.

8. Stick with gold
Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Harnett expects the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and others to pump more money into a debt-laden global financial system, and that development would favor gold

“Gold remains one of the best ways to play this attempt by global policymakers to mitigate the negative impact of debt deleveraging,” he noted in a research report.

Rosenberg, the Gluskin Sheff economist, agreed: “So long as policymakers ensure that real short-term rates are negative — this is a very key indicator for gold — one should expect to see the secular price trend remain tilted to the upside,” he said.

Analysts at S&P are also positive about the yellow metal. The firm sees gold trading in a sideways pattern for much of the year before breaking out to the upside. Gold will finish 2012 at around $1,900 an ounce, S&P said.

In addition to exchange-traded fund proxy SPDR Gold Trust /quotes/zigman/41663/quotes/nls/gld GLD -0.35%  and iShares Gold Trust /quotes/zigman/32787/quotes/nls/iau IAU -0.32% , such a rebound would be favorable for gold miners, including S&P favorites Barrick Gold Corp. /quotes/zigman/12772/quotes/nls/abx ABX -0.56% , Newmont Mining Corp. /quotes/zigman/235723/quotes/nls/nem NEM -0.24%  and Randgold Resources Ltd. /quotes/zigman/88377/quotes/nls/gold GOLD -0.02%   

9. Vote for the presidential cycle
Observers of the U.S. stock market’s four-year “presidential cycle” know that 2011 didn’t live up to history. The third year of a president’s term has been the best, with the S&P 500 gaining 16% on average since 1945 without reinvested dividends, S&P data show. Last year the S&P 500 finished flat.

Election years usually aren’t as robust as the third, with the market up around 6% on average. Typically, the market’s best sectors include consumer staples, energy and Industrials, with technology, materials and utilities posting below-average results.

Importantly, the U.S. market has done well in election years when an incumbent president is running again, regardless of the outcome, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In addition, subpar third years of the cycle since 1945 have not led to a weak election year.

10. Volatility reigns; emphasize safety and income
The high volatility that shook investors in 2011 isn’t likely to subside this year. The challenge is to stay in the ring without getting knocked out.

Gluskin Sheff’s Rosenberg is steering investors to “safety and income at a reasonable price” as the global economy moves through what he called “the mother of all deleveraging cycles.”

Accordingly, he said, focus on high-quality stocks and bonds, income-producing oil and gas partnerships and real-estate investment trusts, precious metals and companies that produce or supply goods and services that people not only want, but must have.

“For 2012, tactical strategies will also be crucial, at least as much as in the roller-coaster ride of 2011,” Rosenberg added. “Investors should be making a special effort to fight dogma and keep an open mind.”
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-6 23:19 | 显示全部楼层

US Payrolls

凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-6 23:21 | 显示全部楼层

Soros says euro split would be catastrophe

Soros Fund Management Chairman George Soros warned that a breakup of the euro would be a catastrophe for Europe and the global financial system. Soros, speaking in Hyderabad, India, said a collapse of the euro would lead to a breakup of the European Union and that the consequences would be more dire than in the crash of 2008, the Business Line newspaper reported. "The crisis is causing the financial condition the world over to deteriorate and this would have a catastrophic effect not only on Europe but also the rest of the world because of the interconnectedness," the billionaire investor said, according to the Economic Times.
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-7 17:31 | 显示全部楼层

下周焦点

Asia's Week Ahead: CPI Data, Geithner in China

U.S. Treasury Secretary's mission to China will focus on trade between the two nations. Also on tap for the markets are China's consumer price index figures, and the Bank of Korea will take up a monetary policy decision. Rex Crum reports.

U.S. Week Ahead: Alcoa, J.P. Morgan, CES

The season for quarterly earnings starts off with results from Alcoa, with J.P. Morgan's report capping the week. Also, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy meet and the hordes descend on CES, where new products and initiatives from Intel and Google are to be unveiled.

Washington events for Jan. 9 - 13
Monday, Jan. 9 3 p.m.: Consumer credit for November, released by the Federal Reserve.

Tuesday, Jan. 10 Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner meets with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan to discuss global economic policies and the situation with Iran, in Beijing. Time to be announced.
10 a.m.: Job openings for November, released by the Labor Department.
10 a.m.: Wholesale inventories for November, released by the Commerce Department.

Wednesday, Jan. 11 Geithner meets with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and other senior Chinese officials, in Beijing. Time to be announced.
2 p.m.: Beige Book on regional economic conditions, released by the Fed.

Thursday, Jan. 12 Geithner meets with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, Finance Minister Jun Azumi and other officials to discuss U.S./Japan efforts to promote global economic growth, in Tokyo. Time to be announced.
7:30 a.m.: Small business index for December, released by the National Federation of Independent Businesses.
8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, released by the Labor Department.
8:30 a.m.: Retail sales for December, released by the Commerce Department.
9 a.m.: U.S. Chamber of Commerce CEO Thomas Donohue presents the Chamber’s annual State of Business outlook, and outlines the Chamber’s policy and political agenda for 2012, at Chamber headquarters.
10 a.m.: Business inventories for November, released by the Commerce Department.
2 p.m.: Federal budget for December, released by the Treasury Department.

Friday, Jan. 13 8:30 a.m.: Trade deficit for November, released by the Commerce Department.
9:55 a.m.: Consumer sentiment for January, released by UMich/Reuters.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-1-7 17:48 编辑 ]
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-7 17:35 | 显示全部楼层

2012 Outlook - Morgan Stanley

China
2012: Stable Growth amid Disinflation
December 15, 2011

By Helen Qiao, Yuande Zhu & Ernest Ho | Hong Kong

2011: High Inflation Pressure Has Been the Market's Focus
With the benefit of hindsight, we think the development of CPI inflation has been a major concern for the market in 2011. Driven by rising food and key commodities prices, inflation pressure has run up rapidly in 1H11. As monetary policy tightening and other anti-inflation measures were implemented, CPI peaked in July and eased afterwards.

Meanwhile, economic growth momentum moderated because of domestic policy tightening and the external demand slowdown. Activity growth indicators began to decelerate in 2Q11 and stabilised at a below-trend level in 3Q11. However, we believe that the fundamental drivers of the Chinese economy remain resilient. First, despite some slowdown in infrastructure investment, investment growth remains buoyant, led by manufacturing investment and social housing construction. In addition, the real growth of retail sales has picked up recently as inflation pressure abates, and the sequential growth of industrial production has largely stabilised.

2012: Stable Growth amid Disinflation
A key theme of our 2012 outlook for the Chinese economy is that the macro economy will demonstrate a scenario featuring slower growth and lower CPI inflation with looming external risks. We expect China to register a second year of below-trend growth because of headwinds from the global slowdown, domestic housing market weakness and limited room for policy stimulus.

We maintain our forecast of 9.0% growth in 2011, but trim our outlook for 2012 to 8.4% to reflect: i) the deterioration in the external environment, ii) weakness in the domestic housing market, and iii) constraints in policy easing compared to three years ago. We look for GDP growth in 2013 to be slightly higher at 8.7%, as domestic demand strengthens amid improvement in the external environment.

We mark our 2011 CPI inflation forecast to market to 5.3%, and expect that CPI inflation should be rather steady at 3.4% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013, respectively, driven by tighter financial conditions and economic activity moderation. Meanwhile, favourable development of food prices and upstream commodities prices should also help to rein in inflation further.

Domestic demand is likely to remain resilient. We expect consumption growth to hold up well on the track of rebalancing. On the other hand, gross capital formation growth is likely to moderate in 2012, mainly due to slower growth in commodity housing (residential property) construction. In 2013, we expect growth to pick up via investment recovery, driven by stimulus from a new government (handover in 2H12-1H13).

Led by weakening external demand, we think that both exports and imports growth will lose some lustre in 2012. We now expect net exports to make zero contribution to GDP growth in 2012, and become a small drag of 0.4pp in 2013. In addition, we expect the share of current account balance in GDP to decline from 3.5% in 2011 to 2.9% in 2012 and 2.5% in 2013.

We believe that policy-makers will adjust the monetary policy stance to be less restrictive in 2012, as the decline in CPI inflation warrants more flexibility for policy adjustment. In our base case, we expect the M2 growth and new lending target will likely be 15% and RMB 8 trillion, being growth-supportive; the policy rate may stay unchanged through 2012; RRR changes will hinge more on further capital inflow/outflow. RMB should gradually appreciate to 6.0 against USD by end-2012, likely with more volatility, as China is steering two-way fluctuation to discourage a seemingly sure play on RMB appreciation.
Quarterly Trajectory: Bottoming Out in 4Q11

With regard to quarterly trajectory, we envisage that the seasonally adjusted QoQ annualised GDP growth will bottom out in 4Q11, and start to gather pace amid policy un-tightening in 2012 and the DM recovery in 2013.

As for the dynamic of CPI inflation, we believe it should gradually ease to the trough in 1Q12, and then gain modestly from 2Q12, leaving 2012 full-year CPI inflation at 3.4%.

Where Are We Heading in the Growth Cycle?
A number of growth indicators are showing that the Chinese economy has been slowing moderately in the recent past. In our view, Chinese policy-makers will likely steer the economy to a soft landing in 2012.

External Demand Ebbs amid DM Woes
Although a widespread recession in DM is not in our base case, the path for the DM recovery now looks even bumpier than we previously thought. In particular, our European team now expects the euro area to technically enter a recession this winter amid rising funding pressures for sovereigns and banks, as well as additional fiscal austerity measures. Although the outlook for the US and Japan seems better than the euro area, their growth in 2012 will likely remain subdued (see Global Economics: Global Forecast Snapshots - Outlook 2012: Policy Make or Break, November 28, 2011).

At the current juncture, we think the biggest risk to China's growth is a potential global recession.  In 2012, we expect more downside risks coming from weakening demand in the developed world, especially in the EU.  As reflected by the high correlation between DM growth and China exports, the lacklustre DM outlook in 2012 will continue to weigh on China's export growth, in our view.

China's reliance on exports as a growth engine has fallen - the current account surplus has shrunk from 10.1% of GDP in 2007 to 5.2% in 2010, and will likely decline further to 3.5% in 2011. Meanwhile, the share of China's exports to G3 has become lower. We expect these shifts to help mitigate the impact from the DM slowdown on China. That said, the weak demand from G3 could still have significant implications for China's exports, since G3 still represents the largest destination, with total share exceeding 44% (about 20% of the total exports are shipped to the EU).

In view of the gloomy DM outlook, we think that China's export and import growth will weaken substantially in 2012. We lower our export growth forecast from 21%Y to 16%Y, and import growth from 24%Y to 19%Y in 2012, partly to reflect the high imported content for China's exports. The lower export growth and the relatively higher import growth would lead the trade surplus to narrow further in 2012, turning the contribution of net exports from growth into a drag in 2012.

In our view, import growth is likely to continue to outpace export growth, given still resilient domestic demand. In particular, the ordinary imports - a better gauge to reflect domestic demand - have grown faster than the processing imports since 2006. As a result, the proportion of ordinary imports has risen to 58% as of October 2011. On top of this, we believe that high-teens import growth in 2012 can be achieved as it is more driven by domestic demand.
Domestic Demand May Hold Up Well

Investment Growth Is Poised to Trend Down
Despite the pessimistic outlook for exports, another key driver behind the projected lower GDP growth is investment. We expect that FAI growth will trend lower to 18% in 2012 from 24% in 2011.

We anticipate that infrastructure investment growth will remain low at 9% in 2012, virtually the same as in 2011. We cite the high debt burden of local governments. Also, quite a few projects launched from the 2009 stimulus package have been completed.

For the property sector, we believe that anti-speculative measures are unlikely to be lifted in the short term. As the government continues its tightening policy on purchase and credit, we expect commodity housing sales to weaken further. Consequently, the outlook for real estate investment and construction will be less constructive.

On the other hand, China will increasingly use social housing as a buffer to offset the possible slowdown in commodity housing investment. However, due to the funding constraints and the scaled-back social housing target in 2012 from 10 million units to 8 million, we are not optimistic that the social housing construction can fully offset the slowdown in commodity housing. Overall, real estate investment growth is forecast to moderate to 15% in 2012 from around 32% in 2011.

Capex in manufacturing may stay resilient at 25% in 2012, lower than 32% in 2011, in our view. Indeed, the potential industrial upgrading in manufacturing sector will likely be one of the most interesting developments in 2012. We think that the following two reasons can underpin this rather optimistic outlook for manufacturing investment:

•1)       Innovation and development of strategic emerging industries could be the catalyst for 2012 investment. In the 12th Five-Year Plan, China has a target to have emerging industries contribute around 8% of its GDP by 2015 (versus 4% in 2010). This entails massive investment in these top-notch industries.

•2)       Financing conditions will likely improve somewhat in 2012, as policy constraints from inflation have largely subsided.
China's Political Cycle Should Support Investment in 2013

China's economic growth cycle has been largely dictated by the FAI cycle, while the FAI cycle tends to be influenced by the political cycle.

Chinese leadership shifts every five years. From historical experience since the early 1990s, the investment cycle has coincided greatly with the change of governments - at both the central and local levels. It is very likely that FAI growth will pick up in the first year when the new leaders are on board. If this pattern persists, FAI growth in China appears set to recover in 2013, when the next change of government is due to take place. However, the political driver for FAI growth seems less clear in 2012, as the historical pattern is not consistent.

From another perspective, 2012 is the second year of the 12th Five-Year Plan, because many projects that are planned and approved are expected to be launched and constructed, which may prevent investment growth from declining too fast. In addition, the government is determined to get the social housing projects funded and constructed. Since a large number of the started social housing projects will be still under construction, and another 8 million units of social housing will be newly started in 2012, if the funding constraint is solved, there could be some upside surprises. This may ease the moderation in the real estate sector overall.

Overall, 2012 may bear less encouraging prospects for investment growth, but the magnitude of the fall should be modest, supported by potential upside surprises from social housing construction and industrial upgrading. In 2013, we expect investment growth to recover, driven by new political cycle (handover in 2H12-1H13).

Consumption: A Welcome Shift
We expect the rebalancing from export- and investment-led growth to consumption to continue in 2012, but possibly at a moderate pace. We forecast real growth of consumption to accelerate to 8.6% in 2012 from 8.3% in 2011, with its contribution to GDP improving to 4.1pp in 2012 from 4.0pp in 2011. We expect that three factors will underpin the stronger consumption:

•·         Falling inflation might boost consumption. As high inflation tends to erode households' purchasing power, easing inflation should help to repair some damage of purchasing power that we have seen this year, boosting people's real consumption.

•·         The increased threshold of income tax exemption in September is likely to increase peoples' income; coupled with a broad-based wage rise, the enhanced income should give a boost to consumption.

•·         A secular force: for most people, the top reason of precautionary savings is for housing purchase. Aided by an ambitious social housing program, consumer confidence will likely remain buoyant. Indeed, the social housing programme represents a large-scale transfer of wealth from the public to households, greatly helping boost the latter's purchasing power. Further, a possible fall in house prices should also help, as more money is freed up for consumption.  Nevertheless, this kind of effect will be more evident in the long term.

In our view, these factors can work beyond 2012 to be part of a secular consumption boost over the medium and long term in China. They should help the growth pattern rebalance from investment and exports to consumption.

Inflation Will Seek a New but Low Norm in 2012
We forecast that CPI inflation will find a new norm at 3.4% in 2012, compared to 5.3% in 2011. The lagging effect of tightening monetary conditions and moderating growth momentum are expected to continue to help ease inflation. In 2013, we expect CPI inflation to pick up slightly to 3.6% amid relatively stronger economic growth.

In China, inflation pressures tend to stem mostly from food price increases, which are more affected by supply shocks. If we take a longer-term view, inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon, largely driven by the monetary conditions. The massive liquidity injections during 2009-10 have been a strong tailwind for China's inflation, and coupled with supply shocks in certain food components, the inflation pressures intensified markedly in 2011. To prevent inflation from rising fast, China has tightened monetary conditions since 2010; these measures are at work now, with CPI inflation showing a clear downward trend recently.

As we know, inflation is positively related to market liquidity. The market liquidity conditions can be gauged by the difference between M1 and M2 growth, as M1 carries higher liquidity than M2. Aided by a massive money overhang in the market, inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling easily. The expectation will lead to an increase in the velocity of money, shown as a larger gap between M1 and M2 growth. According to our estimate, there is approximately a six-month lag between the change in liquidity conditions and headline inflation from a historical pattern. However, in this round, the lag appears to become longer, mostly because food prices have been distorted by the supply shocks. At present, the negative difference between M1 and M2 growth may suggest that the liquidity conditions will help to anchor inflation expectations.

Our CPI inflation forecast hinges on three key assumptions:
•1)       2012 growth will remain below-trend, which will help to keep inflation in check;

•2)       Money supply (M2) growth will normalise to 15%, striking a balance between inflation-restrictive and growth-supportive;

•3)       Commodity prices may stabilise due to the gloomy economic outlook. Our commodity team forecasts that WTI crude oil prices will be US$97 per barrel in 2012, virtually the same as US$96 per barrel in 2011.

Barring no supply shock in food components, we forecast headline CPI inflation to be 3.4% in 2012, lower than 5.3% in 2011.

On the other hand, we think that the nature of Chinese inflation is changing. In the past, inflation has mostly been driven by food prices, which tend to be transitory, because production can be adjusted quickly based on supply-demand rule. But in future, it may be largely due to the surge in salaries, especially among the migrant workers. Raising salaries could boost consumption, and will help to rebalance the economy towards consumption-driven growth, but this could incur higher inflation costs, provided that the productivity gains are not able to fully absorb such rises. Moreover, on the rebalancing track, people would like to upgrade their consumption as income increases, which will likely drive up service inflation. Such a change in nature would make inflation more sticky and persistent.
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-7 17:38 | 显示全部楼层

2012 Outlook - Morgan Stanley

China...continued

The Bull-Bear Cases
Although a global recession is not in our baseline scenario, a double-dip recession - defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction - in the G2 is possible, mostly driven by some fiscal tightening but also big negative fallout from European crisis in 1H12. We assign a 20% probability to such scenario. If this happens, our bear case forecasts will likely materialise.

In that case, we expect a further decline in exports to drag GDP growth down to 7.7%, and CPI inflation would be 0.6%, with China on the verge of deflation. However, we think that the risk of a hard landing is low, as lower inflation would give the government more flexibility to stimulate growth, in our view. Policy-makers will cut policy rates twice, and the new bank lending quota will be set higher to support growth. FAI growth may accelerate again, as the NDRC approves more investment projects and so could boost investment quickly.

For the bull case, if the global slowdown arrives less severely than we now envisage, and there are some positive surprises domestically - such as faster-than-expected social housing progress, better manufacturing capex, loosening monetary conditions, etc. - China's growth will likely demonstrate higher growth at 8.9%, and it would definitely add upward pressures to CPI inflation. Then, we expect a higher CPI reading at 3.8%. In this case, we don't envisage any high-profile policy moves, as it is not an overheating scenario. However, we assign a 10% probability to such case, as we think the risks to growth are not be equally balanced, but rather skewed a little to downside.

Except for the risks from double-dip recession from G2, some domestic uncertainties should also be worth highlighting, as they may represent some downside risks to our baseline scenario.

Worse-than-expected deterioration in China's property market should be one downside risk factor weighing on China's growth. The ongoing anti-speculative policy measures and low sentiment towards investment are likely to cause a slump in both housing prices and transaction volume. They may contribute to a substantial slowdown in FAI, with a potentially negative impact on the performance of the banking sector and undermining local governments' finances due to reduced land sales.

The defaulting risk in the informal lending market has been rising, triggered by deteriorating business conditions, especially for SMEs. Nevertheless, we expect the spill-over risks from informal lending market to the banking sector and the real economy to be limited, considering: 1) the small scale of informal lending in the national economy as a whole, 2) not many sectors are heavily involved with informal lending, and 3) the policy response to help prevent systematic risks.

Banks' asset quality may be weakened by several risk events.  An economic downturn may trigger rising defaults among SMEs, and the potential deterioration in the property sector would cause more insolvency among property developers. Most maturing local governments' debts will be rolled over, with risks essentially to extend rather than being completely solved. All these could pose risks to the banking system, and may cause NPL ratios to rise. However, banks do have some buffer to cope with a modest NPL rise. The NPL provision coverage ratio stands at 270% versus the current NPL ratio of 0.9%.

Policy Outlook: Un-tightening Continues
The current economic mix features still elevated inflation and moderating growth, which explains the policy-makers' pledge to fine-tune economic policies in order to keep a balance between being inflation-restrictive and growth-supportive. In our view, policy-makers are less likely to shift away immediately from their anti-inflation policy bias, since economic growth is still robust. Rather, they are likely to adopt more targeted easing initiatives, such as supporting SMEs and social housing programmes. For the short term towards year-end, our view is that the central bank will hold its key policy tools unchanged, but will focus on policy un-tightening in certain areas, such as loans to SMEs, open market operations and partial RRR cuts for certain financial institutions if necessary.

Looking into 2012, we continue to believe that the policy environment in 2012 will be characterised as ‘un-tightening', and with a bottom line of being growth-supportive.  Unless a sharper-than-expected deceleration in economic activity is observed, we expect the policy interest rates to be unchanged, but un-tightening in other areas will continue.

•·         The M2 growth target and quota for new bank lending for 2012 will likely be 15% and RMB 8 trillion, respectively. The monetary credit conditions should be supportive of growth.

•·         The RRR moves will be used more to help liquidity management and achieve the target for bank lending. Nevertheless, the number of RRR changes will largely hinge on the liquidity conditions, which are influenced by China's balance of payment situation, e.g., trade surpluses, capital inflows or outflows.

•·         We expect the RMB to follow a steady appreciation trend in 2012, and reach 6.0 against the USD by year-end. It implies a slowdown in the pace of appreciation to 4.5% annually, due to the heightened external uncertainties in terms of both trade and capital flows. In addition, we expect the Sino-US political dynamics to play an important role in determining the pace of exchange rate changes with the quarterly trajectory to be contingent on both the prevailing macro dynamics and the evolving political events.

What If the Hard Landing Risk Materialises?
If the Chinese economy shows signs of a possible hard landing, we believe that the Chinese policy-makers can and will make adjustments to both fiscal and monetary policy stances to avoid the potential significant hit in growth, major shifts in employment or social instability. Both the strong fiscal revenue and the monetary policy tightening (especially the restrictive liquidity condition) in 2011 have left the Chinese government with some room for policy easing and potential stimulus to avoid hard landing risks. However, the room is not as much as in 2008:  

•·         Monetary flexibility is available, but not as great as before. The elevated asset prices and the concerns of banking sector asset quality issues mean that policy-makers would be hesitant to rely on pushing credit to GDP higher.

•·         The room for a massive fiscal stimulus seems limited too. China's fiscal deficit is low (2% of GDP), as is central government debt (17% of GDP), but the contingent liability to local government debts (27% of GDP) may substantially limit its flexibility and leave little room for a massive stimulus.
Despite the limited policy room, China could still manage to stimulate the economy. Supporting public housing construction with greater efforts, freeing up selective infrastructure projects and accelerating investment in the strategic emerging industries would be the easy options. The government could also choose to bring back its subsidy scheme to boost consumption. If it happens this time, we expect the subsidies to focus more on rural households and the low-income urban population, who have a higher marginal propensity to consume. To remove the tightening measures on the property market could be the last resort, but it must be implemented cautiously; after all, it is not easy to bring housing prices down again.

2012_Outlook_MS.pdf

352.44 KB, 下载次数: 58

凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-7 17:45 | 显示全部楼层
The euro maintained solid losses on Friday after Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned about possible splits on how to resolve the euro-zone's sovereign-debt crisis. Monti warned the European Union not to let divisions over managing its debt crisis blow up into serious splits, while Sarkozy said a euro collapse could trigger instability, according to Reuters. Analysts and traders expect bigger steps towards a resolution after Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel meet next week. "We need to take very serious, difficult decisions in coming days and weeks," Sarkozy said, according to The Wall Street Journal. ""When I say us, I mean us the governments ... but us also means all the European institutions that must take now realize the extent of the crisis of confidence," Sarkozy said. The euro /quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled EURUSD -0.13% fell to $1.2718, after touching its lowest level since September 2010 and from $1.2775 in late North American trade Thursday. The dollar index /quotes/zigman/1652083 DXY +0.44% , a measure of the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, and traded at 81.265, near a one-year high and versus 80.925 late Thursday.
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-7 21:49 | 显示全部楼层

BIS最新季报

BIS最新季报

BIS Report_qt1112.pdf

1.11 MB, 下载次数: 117

凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

六级海风会员

发表于 2012-1-9 10:44 | 显示全部楼层
英文不好学习啊,呵呵
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-9 15:41 | 显示全部楼层
不好意思,自己也只能看个大概所以怕翻译错了。另外,这些长篇大论要是翻译起来也的确头疼
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-9 15:42 | 显示全部楼层

Sarkozy, Merkel to meet Monti on Jan. 20

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti in Rome on Jan. 20 in an effort to strengthen regional cooperation to stem Europe's debt crisis, according to media reports Saturday. The tri-party meeting comes ahead of a European Union summit scheduled for Jan. 30. Sarkozy is also planning to travel to Berlin to meet Merkel on Monday to discuss steps to resolve the crisis and restore confidence.
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-9 15:44 | 显示全部楼层

French elections could make April a cruel month

Commentary: Sarkozy’s rivals even more skeptical of euro

“With its exorbitant interest rates and over-valued exchange rate, the monetary policy of the 1990s penalized investment, lowered the competitiveness of French products and French labor, led to an explosion in unemployment and provoked recession. If France had practiced the same monetary policies as England at the beginning of the 1990s, then our public debt would not be much more than theirs.”

If you were to deduce that the author of these lines — Nicolas Sarkozy, finance minister of France when he wrote them in 2007, and now president — was not much of a believer in economic and monetary union (EMU), then you’d be right. The astounding point, from a French and European point of view, is that, of the three main candidates for the French presidential election (first round on April 22, second round May 6) , even the dubious Sarkozy is the most favorable toward the euro

Both François Hollande, the Socialist challenger, who is leading in the opinion polls, and Marine Le Pen, the National Front leader, are campaigning as euro skeptics. A strong sign of how the French election could be a potent trigger of further unrest within EMU.

Sarkozy’s view is that if France had left the exchange rate mechanism in the early 1990s, as the U.K. did in 1992, and allowed the franc to float and interest rates to fall, then it would have been a great deal better off. Sarkozy withstood the effects of the franc’s unchanged parity against the d-mark in the 1990s as budget minister in the government of Prime Minister Édouard Balladur in 1993-95, a time of hefty increases in public debt, which Sarkozy blamed on the unduly high exchange rate.

Like many Frenchmen, Sarkozy saw EMU as the means for France to rescue itself from German domination after Germany’s reunification in 1990. While giving full rhetorical force in the past year to shoring up the edifice of the single currency, Sarkozy has been deeply frustrated by EMU’s failure to allow France more leeway in its increasingly fraught relationship with an ever more economically potent Germany.

France’s economic vulnerability has been a central feature of the election campaign so far. Hollande, belying his image as a political teddy bear, went on the assault last week, declaring in an open letter that the country under Sarkozy had been “humbled, weakened, damaged and degraded” — the last a pointed reference to expectations that France will shortly lose its prized triple-A credit rating.

As far as EMU is concerned, Hollande has said he will renegotiate the euro rescue accord reached in Brussels as the pre-Christmas summit. He wants greater powers for the European Central Bank and for member states to issue joint eurobonds — measures to which German Chancellor Angela Merkel is implacably opposed. Le Pen, for her part, daughter of the rabble-rousing National Front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, and currently running No. 3 in the opinion polls after Hollande and Sarkozy, has said she would quit EMU altogether and return to the good old franc.

Beset by high unemployment and low growth, Sarkozy seems likely on the basis of current opinion polls to go down in history as the first single-term president of France’s Fifth Republic since Valéry Giscard d’Estaing in the 1970s.

There are already a sufficient number of potential flash points in the 2012 world economic calendar, with the Greek orthodox Easter weekend (a week before the first round of French voting) earmarked by some as a potential time for Greece to leave the euro and bring back the drachma. Traditionally, French presidential and parliamentary elections where political majorities change hands have proved to trigger considerable financial market turmoil.

On present reading, the French elections in spring 2012 could provide a particularly inflammable trigger point. April is likely to be the cruelest month for EMU. Foreign-exchange dealers, finance ministers and central bankers should give up any idea this year of a long Easter holiday.
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

八级海风会员

发表于 2012-1-11 20:15 | 显示全部楼层
英文看起来累啊,能不能讲个大概:lol

评分

参与人数 1等级分 +10 收起 理由
交易自省 + 10 看起来累

查看全部评分

回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-13 20:38 | 显示全部楼层

The China bull returns

Markets seem to nearly every single day be confirming that the "Winter Resolution" I've been writing about, which is the idea that market correlations break, volatility declines, and a trend asserts itself, looks to be a bull after all as inflation expectations begin to get priced back internally within the markets despite Europe (or perhaps, because of it).

If I'm right that the environment looks to be more stable because, much like a ketchup bottle that suddenly covers the plate after multiple shakes, inflation expectations have suddenly returned, then I don't believe that the U.S. is the best equity market to position in. It may finally be time for China's markets to rally.

Take a look below at the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund ETF /quotes/zigman/357940/quotes/nls/fxi FXI +0.11% relative to the S&P 500 /quotes/zigman/714403/quotes/nls/spy SPY -0.08% . As a reminder, a rising price ratio means the numerator/FXI is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator/SPY.






.
.
.
.
.





Notice that China has underperformed the U.S. all the way going back to August of 2009 in a prolonged period of weakness. An utter collapse in the ratio occurred as the Summer Crash of 2011 took place. A completely underappreciated fact of the FXI ETF is that over 50% of the fund is comprised of Financials.

Now, we know that U.S. Financials /quotes/zigman/246222/quotes/nls/xlf XLF -1.29% have been gradually showing some renewed strength this year in what appears to be a very bullish sign for markets and reflation trade coming. It could very well that strength in Financials is stemming from strength in Homebuilders /quotes/zigman/477673/quotes/nls/xhb XHB -0.22% which have dramatically outperformed broader markets since the October low of last year (around the time of the "Fall Melt-Up" idea). I noted in my prior writings that strength in Homebuilders confirmed risk-on, and it appears U.S. Financials are reacting to that finally.

So what about China? Under the same logic, could the weakness in China be nearing its end? What about the bursting of the real estate bubble? Well - let's take a look at that through the relative performance of the Guggenheim China Real Estate ETF /quotes/zigman/495029/quotes/nls/tao TAO +1.12% relative to the S&P 500 /quotes/zigman/714403/quotes/nls/spy SPY -0.08% .






.
.
.
.
.





That's right - the ratio hit a three-year ratio low in October, and appears to finally be showing a tiny bit of strength after the collapse. If this continues and a recovery in Chinese real estate stocks is imminent, then much like our own Homebuilders may be benefiting U.S. Financials, then China's property recovery (or at least the perception of that) could likewise mean China's own Financials sector, of which FXI has more than 50% in, could recover as well.
Of all the emerging market countries I track, I believe China has the most potential to outperform, especially if 2012 turns out to be the year of reflation as I noted in my recent CNNRadio interview, which can be heard at www.thewallstreetshuffle.com/podcasts/20120109-Seg4.mp3 . I encourage people to listen to the interview - if anything to provide me with feedback on the content and interview style. And of course for the shout out to one of the articles I wrote on MarketWatch.
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-15 11:20 | 显示全部楼层

下周焦点

Asia Week Ahead: China's Bank Reserves In Focus

Amid fresh signs of slowing growth in China, authorities in Beijing may have room to lower banks' reserve requirements. Investors in the coming week will get new reports on GDP growth, retail sales and industrial output.

U.S. Week Ahead: Google, B. of A., Citi Earnings

Quarterly earnings pick up in full force with results from Google, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. They're likely to be the highlight for markets if worries about Europe don't get in the way。

Europe's Week Ahead: Greece, Retailers In Focus

Negotiations between the Greek government and private-sector creditors on a debt deal will be in the spotlight next week. In the corporate sector, Burberry Group, Carrefour and Metro are among the retailers due to release trading updates.
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-15 11:44 | 显示全部楼层
S&P cut France, Austria, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia by one notch, stripping France and Austria of rare triple-A ratings that were key to their ability to support efforts to rescue struggling euro zone members. The ratings agency also downgraded by two notches Italy, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus. Portugal and Cyprus were cut to junk status.

11:06aS&P: Our ratings are less 'gloomy' than markets

10:56aS&P: Eurozone breakup not factored into ratings

10:39aS&P: 'Premature' to say Greek talks have collapsed

10:19aS&P: Italy, Spain ratings cut on broader concerns

10:17aS&P: Italy, Spain have 'made great progress'

10:15aS&P: Euro leaders put too much weight on deficits

10:12aS&P: Eurozone summit failed to reach 'robust' plan

10:10aEurozone crisis response inadequate: S&P

9:00aS&P hits euro zone with downgrades
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-15 11:45 | 显示全部楼层

Washington events for Jan. 16 - 20

Monday, Jan. 16
Government closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day

Tuesday, Jan. 17
All day: U.S. Conference of Mayors convenes for its Annual Winter Meeting, first of four days, speakers include various cabinet secretaries and congressional leaders, at Capitol Hilton Hotel.

8:30 a.m.: Empire State index for January, released by the New York Fed.

10 a.m.: Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. meets to approve additional rules requiring big banks to write living wills to explain dismantling plans under an insolvency scenario, at FDIC headquarters.

5 p.m.: House Rules Committee meets on President Obama’s request to increase the debt limit.

Wednesday, Jan. 18
8:30 a.m.: Producer price index for December, released by the Commerce Department.

9:15 a.m.: Industrial production and capacity utilization for December, released by the Federal Reserve.

9:30 a.m.: Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo testifies on the Volcker Rule, at a joint hearing of the House Financial Services subcommittees on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit and Capital Markets and Government Sponsored Enterprises.

10 a.m.: Home builders index for January, released by the National Association of Home Builders.

11:15 a.m.: Conference of Mayors releases its annual State of America’s Cities Economic Report, at the Capitol Hilton Hotel.

Thursday, Jan. 19
8:30 a.m.: Weekly unemployment claims, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Consumer price index for December, released by the Commerce Department.

8:30 a.m.: Housing starts for December, released by the Commerce Department.

10 a.m.: Philly Fed index for January, released by the Philadelphia Fed.

Friday, Jan. 20
10 a.m.: Existing home sales for December, released by the National Association of Realtors.
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

五级海风会员

发表于 2012-1-17 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
请问主要的参考价值是什么?
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-17 11:14 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 七年计划 于 2012-1-17 10:30 发表
请问主要的参考价值是什么?


主要是看看外围有哪些可能的波因素。
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

五级海风会员

发表于 2012-1-18 00:30 | 显示全部楼层
太高深了....
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-21 21:27 | 显示全部楼层

Washington events for Jan. 23 - 27

Monday, Jan. 23
Senate returns from recess

Tuesday, Jan. 24
All day: Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on interest rate and monetary policy, first of two days, at Fed headquarters.

8:30 a.m.: Institute of International Finance holds press conference on its new forecasts for private capital flows to emerging markets, and Euro zone key issues, at IIF headquarters.

10 a.m.: International Monetary Fund releases update of its World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report, at IMF headquarters.

10 a.m.: Richmond Fed index for January, released by the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank.

10:30 a.m.: Hearing on combatting waste and fraud in the Social Security Disability Insurance Program, at the House Ways and Means subcommittee on Social Security.

1:30 p.m.: Hearing on how the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will function under its newly appointed director, Richard Cordray, at the House Oversight and Government Reform subcommittee on TARP, Financial Services and Bailouts of Public and Private Programs.

9 p.m.: President Barack Obama delivers his annual State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress.

Wednesday, Jan. 25
President Obama departs on a three-day, five-state trip including Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan.

Time to be announced: Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and International Environment and Scientific Affairs Kerri-Ann Jones testifies on the State Department’s recommendation to reject the permit application for Keystone XL pipeline, at the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee on Energy and Power.

10 a.m.: FHFA home prices for November, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

10 a.m.: Pending home sales for December, released by the National Association of Realtors.

12:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve releases FOMC statement on interest rates and monetary policy, at the Fed.

2:15 p.m.: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke holds press conference, at Fed headquarters.

Thursday, Jan. 26
8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, released by the Labor Department.

8:30 a.m.: Durable goods orders for December, released by the Commerce Department.

8:30 a.m.: Chicago Fed national activity index for December, released by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank.

8:30 a.m.: Leading economic indicators for December, released by the Conference Board.

10 a.m.: New home sales for December, released by the Commerce Department.

11 a.m.: Kansas City Fed Index for January, released by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Board.

Friday, Jan. 27
8:30 a.m.: Fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product, released by the Commerce Department.

9:55 a.m.: Consumer sentiment for January, released by UMich/Reuters
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-21 21:33 | 显示全部楼层

下周焦点

Asia's Week Ahead: Holidays, Reserve-Bank Moves

Stock-market action in Asia will be affected by various holidays, which means the spotlight is on central banks in the region, including the Reserve Bank of India, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Thailand. Australia also will issue inflation numbers.

U.S. Week Ahead: Apple, Yahoo, Fed

A heavy week of earnings, including reports from Apple, Yahoo, Ford, Netflix and McDonald's, will vie with a two-day Federal Reserve meeting for investors' attention next week.

Europe's Week Ahead: World Economic Forum

The rich and the powerful will travel to Davos, Switzerland, next week for the 42nd annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. Germany's chancellor will give the opening address on Wednesday evening.
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-21 21:36 | 显示全部楼层

Asia focuses on central banks in week ahead

With many Asian markets closing for holidays in the coming week, the region’s central banks will likely be the main focus for investors, with decisions due from India, Japan and Thailand.

The Reserve Bank of India is slated to make its policy announcement Tuesday after standing pat in December, when it signaled that it was done with interest-rate hikes and would now focus on spurring growth. See report on Reserve Bank of India’s previous meeting.

While many economists now expect the RBI to move to easing, only 1 of 15 among those surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires predicted such a move this time around. Canara Bank — the lone dissenter in the poll — forecasted a quarter-point cut.

But even if the RBI does hold policy steady, it may offer fresh clues as to the timing of its first cut of the easing cycle. Adding room for looser rates, data out last Monday showed India’s benchmark wholesale inflation slowing to a two-year low. See report on India’s December inflation.

Also Tuesday, the Bank of Japan is slated to issue its policy move. Any tightening of its ultra-low 0-0.1% interest-rate target remains highly unlikely — the central bank has said it would wait for long-term price stability before going in that direction.

Instead, attention will be on the economic forecast included in the policy statement, after Kyodo News reported Wednesday that a downgrade to the estimates is possible.

The Bank of Japan said in October that real gross domestic product in the fiscal year ending in March of this year would grow by 0.3%, but the Japanese news agency said this may now be revised to a contraction of up to 0.5%.

Unlike its Japanese and Indian peers, the Bank of Thailand may very well cut interest rates when it meets Wednesday.

The Thai monetary authorities last cut the policy rate by a quarter point to 3.25% in November in response to catastrophic floods in the nation.

With Bank of Thailand Gov. Prasarn Trairatvorakul saying recently that 2011 growth may come in below forecasts, opinion is divided over whether another cut is coming at the next meeting.

In other central bank news, Australia is due to release fourth-quarter consumer inflation numbers next Wednesday, with the results likely to offer a key hint on the central bank’s next move at its Feb. 7 meeting.

Reuters reported that “underlying inflation” — the Reserve Bank of Australia’s key metric for prices — will print near 2.5%, sitting in the middle of the central bank’s 2%-3% target.

The same report cited interbank futures as implying a 68% chance the RBA will cut the policy rate by a quarter point to 4.0% at the coming meeting.

As for the markets, Asia action will probably be quiet and choppy, as many bourses are slated to close for the Chinese New Year and other holidays.

Share markets in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen are due to shut from Monday through Wednesday, with Taipei also closed Thursday.
South Korea is scheduled to close Monday and Tuesday for its own Lunar New Year holiday, while Australia is shut Thursday for Australia Day.
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-25 11:30 | 显示全部楼层

Text of Obama’s State of the Union address

Jan. 24, 2012, 9:12 p.m. EST

The following is the full text of U.S. President Barack Obama’s 2012 State of the Union address:

Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, members of Congress, distinguished guests, and fellow Americans:

Last month, I went to Andrews Air Force Base and welcomed home some of our last troops to serve in Iraq. Together, we offered a final, proud salute to the colors under which more than a million of our fellow citizens fought – and several thousand gave their lives.

We gather tonight knowing that this generation of heroes has made the United States safer and more respected around the world. For the first time in nine years, there are no Americans fighting in Iraq. For the first time in two decades, Osama bin Laden is not a threat to this country. Most of al Qaeda’s top lieutenants have been defeated. The Taliban’s momentum has been broken, and some troops in Afghanistan have begun to come home.

These achievements are a testament to the courage, selflessness, and teamwork of America’s Armed Forces. At a time when too many of our institutions have let us down, they exceed all expectations. They’re not consumed with personal ambition. They don’t obsess over their differences. They focus on the mission at hand. They work together.

Imagine what we could accomplish if we followed their example. Think about the America within our reach: A country that leads the world in educating its people. An America that attracts a new generation of high-tech manufacturing and high-paying jobs. A future where we’re in control of our own energy, and our security and prosperity aren’t so tied to unstable parts of the world. An economy built to last, where hard work pays off, and responsibility is rewarded.

We can do this. I know we can, because we’ve done it before. At the end of World War II, when another generation of heroes returned home from combat, they built the strongest economy and middle class the world has ever known. My grandfather, a veteran of Patton’s Army, got the chance to go to college on the GI Bill. My grandmother, who worked on a bomber assembly line, was part of a workforce that turned out the best products on Earth.

The two of them shared the optimism of a Nation that had triumphed over a depression and fascism. They understood they were part of something larger; that they were contributing to a story of success that every American had a chance to share – the basic American promise that if you worked hard, you could do well enough to raise a family, own a home, send your kids to college, and put a little away for retirement.

The defining issue of our time is how to keep that promise alive. No challenge is more urgent. No debate is more important. We can either settle for a country where a shrinking number of people do really well, while a growing number of Americans barely get by. Or we can restore an economy where everyone gets a fair shot, everyone does their fair share, and everyone plays by the same set of rules. What’s at stake are not Democratic values or Republican values, but American values. We have to reclaim them.

Let’s remember how we got here. Long before the recession, jobs and manufacturing began leaving our shores. Technology made businesses more efficient, but also made some jobs obsolete. Folks at the top saw their incomes rise like never before, but most hardworking Americans struggled with costs that were growing, paychecks that weren’t, and personal debt that kept piling up.

In 2008, the house of cards collapsed. We learned that mortgages had been sold to people who couldn’t afford or understand them. Banks had made huge bets and bonuses with other people’s money. Regulators had looked the other way, or didn’t have the authority to stop the bad behavior.

It was wrong. It was irresponsible. And it plunged our economy into a crisis that put millions out of work, saddled us with more debt, and left innocent, hard-working Americans holding the bag. In the six months before I took office, we lost nearly four million jobs. And we lost another four million before our policies were in full effect.

Those are the facts. But so are these. In the last 22 months, businesses have created more than three million jobs. Last year, they created the most jobs since 2005. American manufacturers are hiring again, creating jobs for the first time since the late 1990s. Together, we’ve agreed to cut the deficit by more than $2 trillion. And we’ve put in place new rules to hold Wall Street accountable, so a crisis like that never happens again.

The state of our Union is getting stronger. And we’ve come too far to turn back now. As long as I’m President, I will work with anyone in this chamber to build on this momentum. But I intend to fight obstruction with action, and I will oppose any effort to return to the very same policies that brought on this economic crisis in the first place.

No, we will not go back to an economy weakened by outsourcing, bad debt, and phony financial profits. Tonight, I want to speak about how we move forward, and lay out a blueprint for an economy that’s built to last – an economy built on American manufacturing, American energy, skills for American workers, and a renewal of American values.

This blueprint begins with American manufacturing.

On the day I took office, our auto industry was on the verge of collapse. Some even said we should let it die. With a million jobs at stake, I refused to let that happen. In exchange for help, we demanded responsibility. We got workers and automakers to settle their differences. We got the industry to retool and restructure. Today, General Motors is back on top as the world’s number one automaker. Chrysler has grown faster in the U.S. than any major car company. Ford is investing billions in U.S. plants and factories. And together, the entire industry added nearly 160,000 jobs.

We bet on American workers. We bet on American ingenuity. And tonight, the American auto industry is back.

What’s happening in Detroit can happen in other industries. It can happen in Cleveland and Pittsburgh and Raleigh. We can’t bring back every job that’s left our shores. But right now, it’s getting more expensive to do business in places like China. Meanwhile, America is more productive. A few weeks ago, the CEO of Master Lock told me that it now makes business sense for him to bring jobs back home. Today, for the first time in fifteen years, Master Lock’s unionized plant in Milwaukee is running at full capacity.

So we have a huge opportunity, at this moment, to bring manufacturing back. But we have to seize it. Tonight, my message to business leaders is simple: Ask yourselves what you can do to bring jobs back to your country, and your country will do everything we can to help you succeed.

We should start with our tax code. Right now, companies get tax breaks for moving jobs and profits overseas. Meanwhile, companies that choose to stay in America get hit with one of the highest tax rates in the world. It makes no sense, and everyone knows it.

So let’s change it. First, if you’re a business that wants to outsource jobs, you shouldn’t get a tax deduction for doing it. That money should be used to cover moving expenses for companies like Master Lock that decide to bring jobs home.

Second, no American company should be able to avoid paying its fair share of taxes by moving jobs and profits overseas. From now on, every multinational company should have to pay a basic minimum tax. And every penny should go towards lowering taxes for companies that choose to stay here and hire here.

Third, if you’re an American manufacturer, you should get a bigger tax cut. If you’re a high-tech manufacturer, we should double the tax deduction you get for making products here. And if you want to relocate in a community that was hit hard when a factory left town, you should get help financing a new plant, equipment, or training for new workers.

My message is simple. It’s time to stop rewarding businesses that ship jobs overseas, and start rewarding companies that create jobs right here in America. Send me these tax reforms, and I’ll sign them right away.

We’re also making it easier for American businesses to sell products all over the world. Two years ago, I set a goal of doubling U.S. exports over five years. With the bipartisan trade agreements I signed into law, we are on track to meet that goal – ahead of schedule. Soon, there will be millions of new customers for American goods in Panama, Colombia, and South Korea. Soon, there will be new cars on the streets of Seoul imported from Detroit, and Toledo, and Chicago.

I will go anywhere in the world to open new markets for American products. And I will not stand by when our competitors don’t play by the rules. We’ve brought trade cases against China at nearly twice the rate as the last administration – and it’s made a difference. Over a thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires. But we need to do more. It’s not right when another country lets our movies, music, and software be pirated. It’s not fair when foreign manufacturers have a leg up on ours only because they’re heavily subsidized.

Tonight, I’m announcing the creation of a Trade Enforcement Unit that will be charged with investigating unfair trade practices in countries like China. There will be more inspections to prevent counterfeit or unsafe goods from crossing our borders. And this Congress should make sure that no foreign company has an advantage over American manufacturing when it comes to accessing finance or new markets like Russia. Our workers are the most productive on Earth, and if the playing field is level, I promise you – America will always win.

I also hear from many business leaders who want to hire in the United States but can’t find workers with the right skills. Growing industries in science and technology have twice as many openings as we have workers who can do the job. Think about that – openings at a time when millions of Americans are looking for work.

That’s inexcusable. And we know how to fix it.

Jackie Bray is a single mom from North Carolina who was laid off from her job as a mechanic. Then Siemens opened a gas turbine factory in Charlotte, and formed a partnership with Central Piedmont Community College. The company helped the college design courses in laser and robotics training. It paid Jackie’s tuition, then hired her to help operate their plant.

I want every American looking for work to have the same opportunity as Jackie did. Join me in a national commitment to train two million Americans with skills that will lead directly to a job. My Administration has already lined up more companies that want to help. Model partnerships between businesses like Siemens and community colleges in places like Charlotte, Orlando, and Louisville are up and running. Now you need to give more community colleges the resources they need to become community career centers – places that teach people skills that local businesses are looking for right now, from data management to high-tech manufacturing.

And I want to cut through the maze of confusing training programs, so that from now on, people like Jackie have one program, one website, and one place to go for all the information and help they need. It’s time to turn our unemployment system into a reemployment system that puts people to work.

These reforms will help people get jobs that are open today. But to prepare for the jobs of tomorrow, our commitment to skills and education has to start earlier.

For less than one percent of what our Nation spends on education each year, we’ve convinced nearly every State in the country to raise their standards for teaching and learning – the first time that’s happened in a generation.

But challenges remain. And we know how to solve them.

At a time when other countries are doubling down on education, tight budgets have forced States to lay off thousands of teachers. We know a good teacher can increase the lifetime income of a classroom by over $250,000. A great teacher can offer an escape from poverty to the child who dreams beyond his circumstance. Every person in this chamber can point to a teacher who changed the trajectory of their lives. Most teachers work tirelessly, with modest pay, sometimes digging into their own pocket for school supplies – just to make a difference.

Teachers matter. So instead of bashing them, or defending the status quo, let’s offer schools a deal. Give them the resources to keep good teachers on the job, and reward the best ones. In return, grant schools flexibility: To teach with creativity and passion; to stop teaching to the test; and to replace teachers who just aren’t helping kids learn.

We also know that when students aren’t allowed to walk away from their education, more of them walk the stage to get their diploma. So tonight, I call on every State to require that all students stay in high school until they graduate or turn eighteen.

When kids do graduate, the most daunting challenge can be the cost of college. At a time when Americans owe more in tuition debt than credit card debt, this Congress needs to stop the interest rates on student loans from doubling in July. Extend the tuition tax credit we started that saves middle-class families thousands of dollars. And give more young people the chance to earn their way through college by doubling the number of work-study jobs in the next five years.

Of course, it’s not enough for us to increase student aid. We can’t just keep subsidizing skyrocketing tuition; we’ll run out of money. States also need to do their part, by making higher education a higher priority in their budgets. And colleges and universities have to do their part by working to keep costs down. Recently, I spoke with a group of college presidents who’ve done just that. Some schools re-design courses to help students finish more quickly. Some use better technology. The point is, it’s possible. So let me put colleges and universities on notice: If you can’t stop tuition from going up, the funding you get from taxpayers will go down. Higher education can’t be a luxury – it’s an economic imperative that every family in America should be able to afford.

Let’s also remember that hundreds of thousands of talented, hardworking students in this country face another challenge: The fact that they aren’t yet American citizens. Many were brought here as small children, are American through and through, yet they live every day with the threat of deportation. Others came more recently, to study business and science and engineering, but as soon as they get their degree, we send them home to invent new products and create new jobs somewhere else.

That doesn’t make sense.

I believe as strongly as ever that we should take on illegal immigration. That’s why my Administration has put more boots on the border than ever before. That’s why there are fewer illegal crossings than when I took office.

The opponents of action are out of excuses. We should be working on comprehensive immigration reform right now. But if election-year politics keeps Congress from acting on a comprehensive plan, let’s at least agree to stop expelling responsible young people who want to staff our labs, start new businesses, and defend this country. Send me a law that gives them the chance to earn their citizenship. I will sign it right away.

You see, an economy built to last is one where we encourage the talent and ingenuity of every person in this country. That means women should earn equal pay for equal work. It means we should support everyone who’s willing to work; and every risk-taker and entrepreneur who aspires to become the next Steve Jobs.

After all, innovation is what America has always been about. Most new jobs are created in start-ups and small businesses. So let’s pass an agenda that helps them succeed. Tear down regulations that prevent aspiring entrepreneurs from getting the financing to grow. Expand tax relief to small businesses that are raising wages and creating good jobs. Both parties agree on these ideas. So put them in a bill, and get it on my desk this year.

Innovation also demands basic research. Today, the discoveries taking place in our federally-financed labs and universities could lead to new treatments that kill cancer cells but leave healthy ones untouched. New lightweight vests for cops and soldiers that can stop any bullet. Don’t gut these investments in our budget. Don’t let other countries win the race for the future. Support the same kind of research and innovation that led to the computer chip and the Internet; to new American jobs and new American industries.

Nowhere is the promise of innovation greater than in American-made energy. Over the last three years, we’ve opened millions of new acres for oil and gas exploration, and tonight, I’m directing my Administration to open more than 75 percent of our potential offshore oil and gas resources. Right now, American oil production is the highest that it’s been in eight years. That’s right – eight years. Not only that – last year, we relied less on foreign oil than in any of the past sixteen years.

But with only 2 percent of the world’s oil reserves, oil isn’t enough. This country needs an all-out, all-of-the-above strategy that develops every available source of American energy – a strategy that’s cleaner, cheaper, and full of new jobs.

We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly one hundred years, and my Administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy. Experts believe this will support more than 600,000 jobs by the end of the decade. And I’m requiring all companies that drill for gas on public lands to disclose the chemicals they use. America will develop this resource without putting the health and safety of our citizens at risk.

The development of natural gas will create jobs and power trucks and factories that are cleaner and cheaper, proving that we don’t have to choose between our environment and our economy. And by the way, it was public research dollars, over the course of thirty years, that helped develop the technologies to extract all this natural gas out of shale rock – reminding us that Government support is critical in helping businesses get new energy ideas off the ground.

What’s true for natural gas is true for clean energy. In three years, our partnership with the private sector has already positioned America to be the world’s leading manufacturer of high-tech batteries. Because of federal investments, renewable energy use has nearly doubled. And thousands of Americans have jobs because of it.

When Bryan Ritterby was laid off from his job making furniture, he said he worried that at 55, no one would give him a second chance. But he found work at Energetx, a wind turbine manufacturer in Michigan. Before the recession, the factory only made luxury yachts. Today, it’s hiring workers like Bryan, who said, “I’m proud to be working in the industry of the future.”

Our experience with shale gas shows us that the payoffs on these public investments don’t always come right away. Some technologies don’t pan out; some companies fail. But I will not walk away from the promise of clean energy. I will not walk away from workers like Bryan. I will not cede the wind or solar or battery industry to China or Germany because we refuse to make the same commitment here. We have subsidized oil companies for a century. That’s long enough. It’s time to end the taxpayer giveaways to an industry that’s rarely been more profitable, and double-down on a clean energy industry that’s never been more promising. Pass clean energy tax credits and create these jobs.

We can also spur energy innovation with new incentives. The differences in this chamber may be too deep right now to pass a comprehensive plan to fight climate change. But there’s no reason why Congress shouldn’t at least set a clean energy standard that creates a market for innovation. So far, you haven’t acted. Well tonight, I will. I’m directing my Administration to allow the development of clean energy on enough public land to power three million homes. And I’m proud to announce that the Department of Defense, the world’s largest consumer of energy, will make one of the largest commitments to clean energy in history – with the Navy purchasing enough capacity to power a quarter of a million homes a year.

Of course, the easiest way to save money is to waste less energy. So here’s another proposal: Help manufacturers eliminate energy waste in their factories and give businesses incentives to upgrade their buildings. Their energy bills will be $100 billion lower over the next decade, and America will have less pollution, more manufacturing, and more jobs for construction workers who need them. Send me a bill that creates these jobs.

Building this new energy future should be just one part of a broader agenda to repair America’s infrastructure. So much of America needs to be rebuilt. We’ve got crumbling roads and bridges. A power grid that wastes too much energy. An incomplete high-speed broadband network that prevents a small business owner in rural America from selling her products all over the world.

During the Great Depression, America built the Hoover Dam and the Golden Gate Bridge. After World War II, we connected our States with a system of highways. Democratic and Republican administrations invested in great projects that benefited everybody, from the workers who built them to the businesses that still use them today.

In the next few weeks, I will sign an Executive Order clearing away the red tape that slows down too many construction projects. But you need to fund these projects. Take the money we’re no longer spending at war, use half of it to pay down our debt, and use the rest to do some nation-building right here at home.

There’s never been a better time to build, especially since the construction industry was one of the hardest-hit when the housing bubble burst. Of course, construction workers weren’t the only ones hurt. So were millions of innocent Americans who’ve seen their home values decline. And while Government can’t fix the problem on its own, responsible homeowners shouldn’t have to sit and wait for the housing market to hit bottom to get some relief.

That’s why I’m sending this Congress a plan that gives every responsible homeowner the chance to save about $3,000 a year on their mortgage, by refinancing at historically low interest rates. No more red tape. No more runaround from the banks. A small fee on the largest financial institutions will ensure that it won’t add to the deficit, and will give banks that were rescued by taxpayers a chance to repay a deficit of trust.

Let’s never forget: Millions of Americans who work hard and play by the rules every day deserve a Government and a financial system that do the same. It’s time to apply the same rules from top to bottom: No bailouts, no handouts, and no copouts. An America built to last insists on responsibility from everybody.

We’ve all paid the price for lenders who sold mortgages to people who couldn’t afford them, and buyers who knew they couldn’t afford them. That’s why we need smart regulations to prevent irresponsible behavior. Rules to prevent financial fraud, or toxic dumping, or faulty medical devices, don’t destroy the free market. They make the free market work better.

There is no question that some regulations are outdated, unnecessary, or too costly. In fact, I’ve approved fewer regulations in the first three years of my presidency than my Republican predecessor did in his. I’ve ordered every federal agency to eliminate rules that don’t make sense. We’ve already announced over 500 reforms, and just a fraction of them will save business and citizens more than $10 billion over the next five years. We got rid of one rule from 40 years ago that could have forced some dairy farmers to spend $10,000 a year proving that they could contain a spill – because milk was somehow classified as an oil. With a rule like that, I guess it was worth crying over spilled milk.

I’m confident a farmer can contain a milk spill without a federal agency looking over his shoulder. But I will not back down from making sure an oil company can contain the kind of oil spill we saw in the Gulf two years ago. I will not back down from protecting our kids from mercury pollution, or making sure that our food is safe and our water is clean. I will not go back to the days when health insurance companies had unchecked power to cancel your policy, deny you coverage, or charge women differently from men.

And I will not go back to the days when Wall Street was allowed to play by its own set of rules. The new rules we passed restore what should be any financial system’s core purpose: Getting funding to entrepreneurs with the best ideas, and getting loans to responsible families who want to buy a home, start a business, or send a kid to college.

So if you’re a big bank or financial institution, you are no longer allowed to make risky bets with your customers’ deposits. You’re required to write out a “living will” that details exactly how you’ll pay the bills if you fail – because the rest of us aren’t bailing you out ever again. And if you’re a mortgage lender or a payday lender or a credit card company, the days of signing people up for products they can’t afford with confusing forms and deceptive practices are over. Today, American consumers finally have a watchdog in Richard Cordray with one job: To look out for them.

We will also establish a Financial Crimes Unit of highly trained investigators to crack down on large-scale fraud and protect people’s investments. Some financial firms violate major anti-fraud laws because there’s no real penalty for being a repeat offender. That’s bad for consumers, and it’s bad for the vast majority of bankers and financial service professionals who do the right thing. So pass legislation that makes the penalties for fraud count.

And tonight, I am asking my Attorney General to create a special unit of federal prosecutors and leading state attorneys general to expand our investigations into the abusive lending and packaging of risky mortgages that led to the housing crisis. This new unit will hold accountable those who broke the law, speed assistance to homeowners, and help turn the page on an era of recklessness that hurt so many Americans.

A return to the American values of fair play and shared responsibility will help us protect our people and our economy. But it should also guide us as we look to pay down our debt and invest in our future.

Right now, our most immediate priority is stopping a tax hike on 160 million working Americans while the recovery is still fragile. People cannot afford losing $40 out of each paycheck this year. There are plenty of ways to get this done. So let’s agree right here, right now: No side issues. No drama. Pass the payroll tax cut without delay.

When it comes to the deficit, we’ve already agreed to more than $2 trillion in cuts and savings. But we need to do more, and that means making choices. Right now, we’re poised to spend nearly $1 trillion more on what was supposed to be a temporary tax break for the wealthiest 2 percent of Americans. Right now, because of loopholes and shelters in the tax code, a quarter of all millionaires pay lower tax rates than millions of middle-class households. Right now, Warren Buffett pays a lower tax rate than his secretary.

Do we want to keep these tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans? Or do we want to keep our investments in everything else – like education and medical research; a strong military and care for our veterans? Because if we’re serious about paying down our debt, we can’t do both.

The American people know what the right choice is. So do I. As I told the Speaker this summer, I’m prepared to make more reforms that rein in the long term costs of Medicare and Medicaid, and strengthen Social Security, so long as those programs remain a guarantee of security for seniors.

But in return, we need to change our tax code so that people like me, and an awful lot of Members of Congress, pay our fair share of taxes. Tax reform should follow the Buffett rule: If you make more than $1 million a year, you should not pay less than 30 percent in taxes. And my Republican friend Tom Coburn is right: Washington should stop subsidizing millionaires. In fact, if you’re earning a million dollars a year, you shouldn’t get special tax subsidies or deductions. On the other hand, if you make under $250,000 a year, like 98 percent of American families, your taxes shouldn’t go up. You’re the ones struggling with rising costs and stagnant wages. You’re the ones who need relief.

Now, you can call this class warfare all you want. But asking a billionaire to pay at least as much as his secretary in taxes? Most Americans would call that common sense.

We don’t begrudge financial success in this country. We admire it. When Americans talk about folks like me paying my fair share of taxes, it’s not because they envy the rich. It’s because they understand that when I get tax breaks I don’t need and the country can’t afford, it either adds to the deficit, or somebody else has to make up the difference – like a senior on a fixed income; or a student trying to get through school; or a family trying to make ends meet. That’s not right. Americans know it’s not right. They know that this generation’s success is only possible because past generations felt a responsibility to each other, and to their country’s future, and they know our way of life will only endure if we feel that same sense of shared responsibility. That’s how we’ll reduce our deficit. That’s an America built to last.

I recognize that people watching tonight have differing views about taxes and debt; energy and health care. But no matter what party they belong to, I bet most Americans are thinking the same thing right now: Nothing will get done this year, or next year, or maybe even the year after that, because Washington is broken.

Can you blame them for feeling a little cynical?

The greatest blow to confidence in our economy last year didn’t come from events beyond our control. It came from a debate in Washington over whether the United States would pay its bills or not. Who benefited from that fiasco?

I’ve talked tonight about the deficit of trust between Main Street and Wall Street. But the divide between this city and the rest of the country is at least as bad – and it seems to get worse every year.

Some of this has to do with the corrosive influence of money in politics. So together, let’s take some steps to fix that. Send me a bill that bans insider trading by Members of Congress, and I will sign it tomorrow. Let’s limit any elected official from owning stocks in industries they impact. Let’s make sure people who bundle campaign contributions for Congress can’t lobby Congress, and vice versa – an idea that has bipartisan support, at least outside of Washington.

Some of what’s broken has to do with the way Congress does its business these days. A simple majority is no longer enough to get anything – even routine business – passed through the Senate. Neither party has been blameless in these tactics. Now both parties should put an end to it. For starters, I ask the Senate to pass a rule that all judicial and public service nominations receive a simple up or down vote within 90 days.

The executive branch also needs to change. Too often, it’s inefficient, outdated and remote. That’s why I’ve asked this Congress to grant me the authority to consolidate the federal bureaucracy so that our Government is leaner, quicker, and more responsive to the needs of the American people.

Finally, none of these reforms can happen unless we also lower the temperature in this town. We need to end the notion that the two parties must be locked in a perpetual campaign of mutual destruction; that politics is about clinging to rigid ideologies instead of building consensus around common sense ideas.

I’m a Democrat. But I believe what Republican Abraham Lincoln believed: That Government should do for people only what they cannot do better by themselves, and no more. That’s why my education reform offers more competition, and more control for schools and States. That’s why we’re getting rid of regulations that don’t work. That’s why our health care law relies on a reformed private market, not a Government program.

On the other hand, even my Republican friends who complain the most about Government spending have supported federally-financed roads, and clean energy projects, and federal offices for the folks back home.

The point is, we should all want a smarter, more effective Government. And while we may not be able to bridge our biggest philosophical differences this year, we can make real progress. With or without this Congress, I will keep taking actions that help the economy grow. But I can do a whole lot more with your help. Because when we act together, there is nothing the United States of America can’t achieve.

That is the lesson we’ve learned from our actions abroad over the last few years.

Ending the Iraq war has allowed us to strike decisive blows against our enemies. From Pakistan to Yemen, the al Qaeda operatives who remain are scrambling, knowing that they can’t escape the reach of the United States of America.

From this position of strength, we’ve begun to wind down the war in Afghanistan. Ten thousand of our troops have come home. Twenty-three thousand more will leave by the end of this summer. This transition to Afghan lead will continue, and we will build an enduring partnership with Afghanistan, so that it is never again a source of attacks against America.

As the tide of war recedes, a wave of change has washed across the Middle East and North Africa, from Tunis to Cairo; from Sana’a to Tripoli. A year ago, Qadhafi was one of the world’s longest-serving dictators – a murderer with American blood on his hands. Today, he is gone. And in Syria, I have no doubt that the Assad regime will soon discover that the forces of change can’t be reversed, and that human dignity can’t be denied.

How this incredible transformation will end remains uncertain. But we have a huge stake in the outcome. And while it is ultimately up to the people of the region to decide their fate, we will advocate for those values that have served our own country so well. We will stand against violence and intimidation. We will stand for the rights and dignity of all human beings – men and women; Christians, Muslims, and Jews. We will support policies that lead to strong and stable democracies and open markets, because tyranny is no match for liberty.

And we will safeguard America’s own security against those who threaten our citizens, our friends, and our interests. Look at Iran. Through the power of our diplomacy, a world that was once divided about how to deal with Iran’s nuclear program now stands as one. The regime is more isolated than ever before; its leaders are faced with crippling sanctions, and as long as they shirk their responsibilities, this pressure will not relent. Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal. But a peaceful resolution of this issue is still possible, and far better, and if Iran changes course and meets its obligations, it can rejoin the community of nations.

The renewal of American leadership can be felt across the globe. Our oldest alliances in Europe and Asia are stronger than ever. Our ties to the Americas are deeper. Our iron-clad commitment to Israel’s security has meant the closest military cooperation between our two countries in history. We’ve made it clear that America is a Pacific power, and a new beginning in Burma has lit a new hope. From the coalitions we’ve built to secure nuclear materials, to the missions we’ve led against hunger and disease; from the blows we’ve dealt to our enemies; to the enduring power of our moral example, America is back.

Anyone who tells you otherwise, anyone who tells you that America is in decline or that our influence has waned, doesn’t know what they’re talking about. That’s not the message we get from leaders around the world, all of whom are eager to work with us. That’s not how people feel from Tokyo to Berlin; from Cape Town to Rio; where opinions of America are higher than they’ve been in years. Yes, the world is changing; no, we can’t control every event. But America remains the one indispensable nation in world affairs – and as long as I’m President, I intend to keep it that way.

That’s why, working with our military leaders, I have proposed a new defense strategy that ensures we maintain the finest military in the world, while saving nearly half a trillion dollars in our budget. To stay one step ahead of our adversaries, I have already sent this Congress legislation that will secure our country from the growing danger of cyber-threats.

Above all, our freedom endures because of the men and women in uniform who defend it. As they come home, we must serve them as well as they served us. That includes giving them the care and benefits they have earned – which is why we’ve increased annual VA spending every year I’ve been President. And it means enlisting our veterans in the work of rebuilding our Nation.

With the bipartisan support of this Congress, we are providing new tax credits to companies that hire vets. Michelle and Jill Biden have worked with American businesses to secure a pledge of 135,000 jobs for veterans and their families. And tonight, I’m proposing a Veterans Job Corps that will help our communities hire veterans as cops and firefighters, so that America is as strong as those who defend her.

Which brings me back to where I began. Those of us who’ve been sent here to serve can learn from the service of our troops. When you put on that uniform, it doesn’t matter if you’re black or white; Asian or Latino; conservative or liberal; rich or poor; gay or straight. When you’re marching into battle, you look out for the person next to you, or the mission fails. When you’re in the thick of the fight, you rise or fall as one unit, serving one Nation, leaving no one behind.

One of my proudest possessions is the flag that the SEAL Team took with them on the mission to get bin Laden. On it are each of their names. Some may be Democrats. Some may be Republicans. But that doesn’t matter. Just like it didn’t matter that day in the Situation Room, when I sat next to Bob Gates – a man who was George Bush’s defense secretary; and Hillary Clinton, a woman who ran against me for president.

All that mattered that day was the mission. No one thought about politics. No one thought about themselves. One of the young men involved in the raid later told me that he didn’t deserve credit for the mission. It only succeeded, he said, because every single member of that unit did their job – the pilot who landed the helicopter that spun out of control; the translator who kept others from entering the compound; the troops who separated the women and children from the fight; the SEALs who charged up the stairs. More than that, the mission only succeeded because every member of that unit trusted each other – because you can’t charge up those stairs, into darkness and danger, unless you know that there’s someone behind you, watching your back.

So it is with America. Each time I look at that flag, I’m reminded that our destiny is stitched together like those fifty stars and those thirteen stripes. No one built this country on their own. This Nation is great because we built it together. This Nation is great because we worked as a team. This Nation is great because we get each other’s backs. And if we hold fast to that truth, in this moment of trial, there is no challenge too great; no mission too hard. As long as we’re joined in common purpose, as long as we maintain our common resolve, our journey moves forward, our future is hopeful, and the state of our Union will always be strong.

Thank you, God bless you, and may God bless the United States of America.
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-25 11:36 | 显示全部楼层

Eight Industries the U.S. Has Lost to China

Americans are used to the U.S. being the leader, or a top-ranked nation, in many areas. But in a number of industries and businesses, the U.S. has lost that first place, usually to China. While some, such as coal production, may not come as a surprise, other industries the U.S. has lost the market leadership might. 24/7 Wall St. looked at a large number of manufacturing, agricultural and financial businesses to find those in which China has surpassed the U.S.

For several years, economists have said that China’s GDP growth indicates that its economy will pass that of the U.S. in the next two or three decades. China’s GDP is measured at about $6.5 trillion, now second in the world. America’s GDP is over $15.2 trillion, according to the International Monetary Fund. While China certainly has much catching up to do, the two countries’ rate of GDP growth is also very different. Last year, China’s economy expanded at more than 9%. America’s GDP grew at a little better than 2%.

One reason that China continues to gain so rapidly on the U.S. is the high cost of American labor and manufacturing. In fact, U.S. manufacturing costs have risen so much that they are much higher than in any developed nation with factory capacity. This includes countries like China, Mexico and South Korea - places the U.S. and Japanese companies often contract to do their factory work. The labor price advantage has helped China become the largest steel producer in the world. China is also first place in car manufacturing.
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-25 11:58 | 显示全部楼层
Although Greece is yet to reach an agreement with its private creditors and the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast on Tuesday, “risk sentiment has received some support from better economic data out of Europe,” said Barclays Capital strategists.

Preliminary data out Tuesday showed that private-sector economic activity in the euro-zone unexpectedly ticked up in January, with the Markit euro-zone composite purchasing managers index rising to 50.4 from 48.3 in December.

“Although it is still early, the improvement, which has coincided with a period of market stability, is consistent with a flat gross domestic product reading [for the euro area] for the first quarter of 2012,” said the Barclays Capital strategists.

On the economic front in the Asia-Pacific region, data showed that Japan recorded an annual trade deficit for the first time since 1980, while Australian consumer prices were flat in the fourth quarter of 2011, against economist expectations for a slight rise.

Banks were gaining in Australia after the inflation data appeared tame enough to keep hopes alive for an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia in the next few months.

“We still think the next rate move is down but perhaps more a case of March than February. There’s no immediate rush to cut rates at the moment,” said Peter Esho, strategist at City index.
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-25 12:24 | 显示全部楼层
Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said Tuesday in a statement that euro-zone finance ministers had given Greece the “green light” to conclude talks with debt holders within few days.

Creditors have pushed for a coupon around 4% under what would be a voluntary debt swap. The European Union and others, in turn, have pressed for a coupon rate of no more than 3.5%, arguing that a higher rate would make it impossible to put Greece on a sustainable fiscal footing. Read more on particulars in contentious talks over Greece debt.

A resolution is crucial as Greece must repay euro 14.5 billion of maturing debt in March to avoid a default.
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

新浪微博达人勋

荣誉会员

 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-25 12:30 | 显示全部楼层

Market as undervalued today as in 1990

Commentary: Norm Fosback is as bullish today as 20 years ago
The stock market represents better value today than at any time in the last 20 years?


That certainly is not something you’ve been reading recently in this column. For example, I’ve argued that, from a very short-term point of view, there is too much complacency out there — which is bearish from a contrarian point of view. ( Read my Jan. 18 column, entitled “Worrisome complacency.” )

And I’ve also pointed out that some longer-term valuation measures with good track records — such as the Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, or CAPE, made famous by Yale University Professor Robert Shiller — show the market to be closer to the overvalued end of the spectrum than undervalued. ( Read my Jan 6 column, entitled “What if the 2009 bull market is still alive?” )

But it’s important for everyone, and especially contrarians, to consider contrary points of view. And this is particularly the case when the point of view is being advanced by someone with as long and eminent a record as Norm Fosback.

Fosback, for those of you who don’t know, has been a close and scientifically minded student of the stock market for nearly five decades. For three decades he was the head of the Institute for Econometric Research, during which he authored a widely followed investment textbook entitled Stock Market Logic and edited several investment advisory services. He currently publishes a service called Fosback’s Fund Forecaster.

In the latest issue of that service, published late last week, Fosback boldly states that “the market’s fundamental position has evolved to the most favorable alignment in 20 years.”

His econometric model is projecting that the stock market will rise by 19% over the next 12 months, and 89% over the next five years. That five-year rate is equivalent to nearly 14% per year on an annualized basis.

While Fosback’s model incorporates numerous different indicators that he has found to have predictive abilities, he says that the major underlying issues for the U.S. market right now are “domestic corporate profits, valuations of domestic stocks, and Federal Reserve policy.” This is what Fosback has to say about each:

  • Corporate profitability is an all-time high. “Not only have pretax profits soared to match their highest levels in history, but plunging effective corporate tax rates have sent after-tax corporate profits soaring to even greater heights compared with historical norms... With after-tax profits running at 10% of the nation’s $15-trillion GDP, net additions to business cash coffers are running at least 1-1/2 trillion on an annual basis, even after dividend payouts to stockholders. At the moment, that is effectively doubling cash holdings on an annualized basis. Liquidity, in other words is enormous.”

  • Despite these record profits, the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 index is back to where it stood in 1990 (when calculated on the basis of operating earnings). The decade of the 1990s, of course, was one of the most bullish in U.S. stock market history.

  • “Monetary policy [is] still in an aggressive easing mode.” Interest rates remain “at record lows” and the money supply is expanding.

What about Europe? Won’t slowing economic growth in that crucial region sabotage the U.S. market, even if it were otherwise poised for a major bull market?

Fosback thinks not, arguing that the media’s obsession with Europe is little more than a “sleight of hand: Look over there ... while the real action is right here.”

Are there any flies in the ointment?

Of course.
Ironically, though, the major such fly that Fosback acknowledges derives from how good things otherwise are right now for corporate America: “The only meaningful negative investors can take away from the current corporate profit and tax environments is that they are so favorable it is almost inconceivable they can get any better; in other words, the path of least resistance for corporate profits going forward may be down, simply because it is almost unimaginable it can get any better.”

But even if corporate profit growth slows to a standstill, which he thinks is most unlikely, the market is still likely to go up because of rising P/E ratios.
Needless to say, you might not agree with Fosback’s cheery assessment. But regardless, and especially if you don’t, you need to have good answers for why the factors he mentions aren’t as bullish as he believes them to be.

[ 本帖最后由 交易自省 于 2012-1-25 12:33 编辑 ]
凡交易者,当自省。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册会员 新浪微博登陆

本版积分规则

QQ|小黑屋|手机版|海风股票论坛 ( 闽ICP备05030991号-1 )|网站地图

GMT+8, 2017-12-15 16:31

 
快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表